Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is regarded as one of the greatest biological threats to the U.S. livestock industry because of its potential to cause catastrophic economic damages and massive livestock depopulation. Current U.S. contingency plans call for "stamping out" of FMD. An integral component of a "stamping out" policy is movement restrictions. The main purpose for movement restrictions is to stop the spread of disease, but they also disrupt the agribusiness sector. Welfare slaughter, the depopulation of healthy quarantined animals, is a possibility if movement restrictions are kept in place for prolonged periods of time. Many studies have analyzed the economic consequences of alternative mitigation strategies, but generally these studies have ignored the costs that might arise because of movement restrictions affecting uninfected premises located within the quarantine zone. Ultimately this study seeks to improve preparedness in the event of a FMD outbreak. It does this by developing information for those formulating plans on the costs associated with movement restrictions regarding quarantined, uninfected large feedlots located in the Texas High Plains Region. To accomplish this objective two strategies were compared: an unrestricted feed strategy, where feed is allowed to be brought onto uninfected premises and finished cattle are sold; and a welfare slaughter strategy, where feed isn't allowed to be brought onto the uninfected premises so animals are depopulated. In addition, seasonal differences in total costs were examined. This study expanded on the High Plains Study conducted by M. Ward, L. Highfield, P. Vongseng, and M. Garner by using their epidemiological data combined with a cost accounting framework to estimate the total cost of each strategy. This study examined direct disease management costs (indemnity payments, feed costs, marketing costs, surveillance costs, cleaning and disinfecting costs, appraisal cost, euthanasia costs, and disposal costs). Overall, the unrestricted feed strategy was less expensive than the welfare slaughter strategy, costing on average $22.6 million compared to $48.5 million, respectively. Disease outbreak timing did impact the overall cost of both strategies. The results suggest the policy makers should strongly consider creating movement policies that address feed supply and finished cattle movement for uninfected large feedlots in prolonged quarantine zones; as such policies appear to reduce outbreak related costs for stakeholder and the U.S. government.

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the industry impact of a hypothetical Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the Texas High Plains using alternative animal tracing levels. To accomplish this objective, an epidemiological disease spread model, AUSSPREAD, is used to simulate the FMD outbreak and an economic model is used to examine the impacts of different animal identification levels in cattle. The different levels of animal identification relate to the model?s ability to trace back the subsequent infected and/or dangerous contacts with which the initial outbreak herd has been in contact. The study examines direct disease management costs (slaughter, euthanasia, disposal, surveillance, and cleaning disinfection), forgone income, and other indirect costs (indemnity payments and welfare slaughter) for outbreaks originating from a large beef operation, a feedlot, and a saleyard across subsequent tracing periods from 1 to 10 days. Welfare slaughter and quarantine costs were estimated for the best and worst outbreaks from the feedlot operation. It is noteworthy that total direct costs of a FMD outbreak would be more extensive than the current study's calculations, which only analyzed the direct disease management costs. The increased days to trace dangerous contacts presented overall increases in outbreak losses over each outbreak scenario. Although outcome averages appear insensitive at times under the assumptions applied, the epidemiological model presented the possibility that traceability could reduce the risk of extreme outcomes in respect to the overall distribution of losses. For each cattle operation, the outbreaks stayed consistent or marginally increased with their respective average costs, but their maximum losses rose steadily, across the trace periods examined. The impact of increased traceability and decreased outbreak length can be justified in affecting FMD outbreak costs in a positive manner. The results provide the industry with estimations of different outbreak scenarios which can be used to inform the decision on the NAIS system. Longer tracing periods, larger simulations (by iteration), and further study of the model is necessary in order to more accurately imitate FMD outbreaks within the Texas High Plains and its detrimental effects.

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