The ocean is the largest sink of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere and therefore the magnitude of ocean carbon uptake largely determines the airborne fraction of emissions and the ultimate severity of surface climate change. However, climate-feedbacks on ocean carbon uptake over the historical period and in the future are uncertain. In particular, much uncertainty in the ocean carbon response hinges on the influence of wind-driven changes in the Southern Ocean, which is the most significant region of anthropogenic carbon uptake. Here I show that the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 climate models have significant biases in their pre-industrial and satellite era-climatologies, relative to observationally based estimates. I also show that the models project the westerlies to intensify and shift poleward under anthropogenic forcing over the 20th and 21st centuries, but that they significantly underestimate the trends over the satellite era. I then use a novel experimental design, wherein I isolate the influence of the models pre-industrial wind bias on simulations of ocean carbon uptake and climate. I do this by using the UVic Earth System Climate Model (ESCM) with an ensemble of members, each forced by the winds from an individual CMIP model. I show here that the climate model pre-industrial wind bias can significantly increase ocean carbon uptake in transient climate change simulations, reducing the airborne fraction and projected climate change. By contrast, the simulated wind-changes over the 20th and 21st centuries reduce ocean carbon uptake, largely through an increase in outgassing from the Southern Ocean. However, I show that this transient- wind effect is i) smaller than the pre-industrial bias effect and ii) does not occur when using a variable formulation for the Gent-McWilliams coefficient of eddy diffusivity in the coarse resolution model, under simulated or observed wind-changes. I then go on to demonstrate that the simulated transient wind-changes significantly reduce the Antarctic sea-ice area simulated by the UVic ESCM. I also test the influence of fresh water input to the Southern Ocean from dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, which is a forcing absent from the CMIP5 models. The magnitude of the fresh water effect is small and has little influence on the sea-ice area trends simulated by the CMIP5 models over the historical era. These results have significant implications for previous model-based studies of the ocean carbon cycle, as well as for the quantification of the wind-induced uncertainty in future climate projections by current Earth System Models. / Graduate / 0725 / 0425 / 0415

The ocean is the largest sink of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere and therefore the magnitude of ocean carbon uptake largely determines the airborne fraction of emissions and the ultimate severity of surface climate change. However, climate-feedbacks on ocean carbon uptake over the historical period and in the future are uncertain. In particular, much uncertainty in the ocean carbon response hinges on the influence of wind-driven changes in the Southern Ocean, which is the most significant region of anthropogenic carbon uptake. Here I show that the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 climate models have significant biases in their pre-industrial and satellite era-climatologies, relative to observationally based estimates. I also show that the models project the westerlies to intensify and shift poleward under anthropogenic forcing over the 20th and 21st centuries, but that they significantly underestimate the trends over the satellite era. I then use a novel experimental design, wherein I isolate the influence of the model’s pre-industrial wind bias on simulations of ocean carbon uptake and climate. I do this by using the UVic Earth System Climate Model (ESCM) with an ensemble of members, each forced by the winds from an individual CMIP model. I show here that the climate model pre-industrial wind bias can significantly increase ocean carbon uptake in transient climate change simulations, reducing the airborne fraction and projected climate change. By contrast, the simulated wind-changes over the 20th and 21st centuries reduce ocean carbon uptake, largely through an increase in outgassing from the Southern Ocean. However, I show that this transient- wind effect is i) smaller than the pre-industrial bias effect and ii) does not occur when using a variable formulation for the Gent-McWilliams coefficient of eddy diffusivity in the coarse resolution model, under simulated or observed wind-changes. I then go on to demonstrate that the simulated transient wind-changes significantly reduce the Antarctic sea-ice area simulated by the UVic ESCM. I also test the influence of fresh water input to the Southern Ocean from dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, which is a forcing absent from the CMIP5 models. The magnitude of the fresh water effect is small and has little influence on the sea-ice area trends simulated by the CMIP5 models over the historical era. These results have significant implications for previous model-based studies of the ocean carbon cycle, as well as for the quantification of the wind-induced uncertainty in future climate projections by current Earth System Models. / Graduate / 0725 / 0425 / 0415

La marge sud-chilienne constitue la seule masse continentale de l’hémisphère sud qui intercepte l’intégralité de la ceinture des vents d’ouest (SWW), en interaction avec la circulation océanique. Elle occupe donc une position stratégique pour les reconstructions paléoclimatiques et a fait l’objet d’une attention croissante ces dernières décennies. Dans le contexte des hautes latitudes sud de la marge chilienne, les objectifs de cette thèse se sont portés sur (1) l’établissement d’une chronostratigraphie précise basée sur des datations radiocarbone et la téphrochronologie et (2) sur la reconstruction de la dynamique de la calotte nord-Patagonienne en lien direct avec le régime des précipitations, les températures et/ou la dynamique interne des glaciers sur les derniers 22 ka BP à partir de l’étude d’un enregistrement marin à ultra haute résolution et à fort taux de sédimentation, collecté au large de la péninsule de Taitao (~46°S). Basé sur un modèle d’âge robuste par des datations radiocarbone associées à une étude téphrochronologique, l’enregistrement marin MD07-3088 permet une couverture temporelle large depuis le dernier maximum glaciaire, la déglaciation et l’Holocène. Plusieurs traceurs (minéralogie des argiles, granulométrie, géochimie inorganique) ont été utilisés afin de retracer la variabilité des sources et les fluctuations de la calotte nord patagonienne. Couplée aux paléoreconstructions des températures des eaux de surface et de la variabilité des proportions polliniques, cette étude a permis de retracer les variations dans le régime des précipitations et les interconnections entre les réservoirs océaniques et atmosphériques. Les résultats ont montré qu’au cours du DMG (22-18 ka BP), les températures globalement plus froides semblent contrôler les apports terrigènes en provenance de la chaine côtière proximale et la dynamique des glaciers. Lors de la déglaciation (18-11,5 ka BP), les conditions globalement plus chaudes marquent un changement radical dans la source des apports détritiques, avec une dominance de la cordillère andéenne distale. Cet intervalle est ponctué par 3 évènements de refroidissement, dont l’ACR (14,3-12,7 ka BP) pendant lesquels un regain de l’activité glaciaire est enregistré. Au cours de cet intervalle, l’expansion des tourbières Magellanes suggère des conditions climatiques plus froides et très humides résultant de la migration progressive vers le nord des Westerlies. L’Holocène Inférieur (11,5-8 ka BP) se caractérise par des conditions similaires à celles de la déglaciation avec la présence d’un événement plus grossier témoignant soit de l’influence de la légère baisse des températures (~2°C), soit d’un rôle plus important de la dynamique interne des glaciers. L’Holocène Moyen (8-3 ka BP) est illustré par la mise en place de la phase de Néoglaciation qui se traduit par un déplacement vers le nord de la cellule des vents d’ouest caractérisé par des forts apports de précipitations dans notre zone d’étude bien que peu de variations soient enregistrées dans les estimations des SST. Enfin, la faible variation des SST et la légère augmentation des précipitations enregistrées au cours de l’Holocène Inférieur (3 ka BP à l’actuel) témoignent d’un retour de la cellule des vents à une position similaire à l’actuel. / The south-chilean margin is the one continental mass to intercept the entire Westerly Winds cell (SWW), closely linked to the oceanic circulation. It constitutes a strategic area for paleoclimatic reconstructions and represents a peculiar interest since the last decades. In the southern high latitude chilean margin setting, the main objectives of this thesis were focused on (1) the establishment of a precise chronology based on radiocarbon dates and tephrochronology and (2) to restore the north-Patagonian icefield dynamic strongly linked to the rainfall features, temperatures and/or internal glaciers dynamic over the last 22 ka BP from a High-resolution and High sedimentation rate deep-sea core collected offshore the Taitao peninsula (~46°S). Based on robust age model by radiocarbon dates and tephrochronology study, the marine record MD07-3088 allows a large time-span since the Last Glacial Maximum, the deglaciation and the Holocene. Several proxies (clay mineralogy, grain-size and inorganic geochemistry) were used to restore the variability in continental source inputs and north-patagonian icefield fluctuations. Coupled to SST estimations and palynological dataset, this study allows to reconstruct rainfall changes and interconnections between oceanic and atmospheric features. Results show that during the LGM (22-18 ka BP), the globally colder temperatures play a major role in the detrital supplies from Coastal Range and glacier dynamic. During the deglaciation (18-11,5 ka BP), warmer conditions mark a drastic change in the terrigenous source with a dominance of Andean Cordillera influence. This interval is punctuated by 3 colder events, in particularly the ACR event (14,3-12,7 ka BP) during which a renewed glacial activity is recorded as shown by the expansion of Magellanes moorlands, typical of colder and more humid climate as a result of the northward migration of the Westerly Winds. The Early Holocene (11,5-8 ka BP) is marked by climatic conditions similar to those of the deglaciation with only the presence of one colder event resulting either by slightly temperatures decreasing (~2°C) or the internal glacier dynamic contribution. The Middle Holocene (8-3 ka BP) is illustrated by the settlement of the Neoglaciation phase resulting from the northward displacement of the SWW cell favouring more intense rainfalls in the study site even Tough any significant temperature variations are observed. Finally, the low SST variability and the slight increase of rainfalls recorded during the Upper Holocene (3 ka BP to present) give clues about the return of the SWW to modern location.

Ao sul da África, a Corrente das Agulhas sofre uma abrupta retroflexão, liberando anéis com águas mais quentes e mais salinas do Oceano Índico na região sudeste do Atlântico Sul. A transferência de águas do Índico para o Atlântico por meio de anéis e filamentos na região de retroflexão da Corrente das Agulhas é referida na literatura como o vazamento das Agulhas. Esse vazamento conecta os giros subtropicais do Atlântico Sul e do Índico, sendo parcialmente responsável pela alta salinidade do Oceano Atlântico. A comunicação entre esses dois giros subtropicais na área de retroflexão da Corrente das Agulhas é limitado ao sul pela Frente Subtropical, que é controlada pela posição do rotacional zero do tensão de cisalhamento do vento. Desde o final da década de 1960, os ventos de oeste do Hemisfério Sul tem sofrido uma migração em direção ao polo como reflexo da tendência positiva do índice do modo anular sul (SAM). Para investigar o impacto dessas mudanças na circulação atmosférica no vazamento das Agulhas, foi implementada uma rodada do modelo HYCOM forçada com médias mensais dos produtos de reanálise do NCEP entre 1948 e 2010. Os resultados mostram um aumento no vazamento das Agulhas de 1.1 Sv por década entre 1960 e 2010. O aumento nesse transporte interoceânico está relacionado a uma migração para o sul da Frente Subtropical, forçada pelo deslocamento para o sul dos ventos de oeste. Os resultados também mostram uma tendência positiva nos campos de altura da superfície livre e temperatura na região das Agulhas, sendo esses, consequência da migração para o sul da Frente Subtropical. A tendência positiva desses campos e o deslocamento para o sul da Frente Subtropical seguem a tendência positiva do índice da SAM, com valores mais altos durante o verão austral. Como a tendência do índice da SAM tem sido atribuída à redução na camada de ozônio e ao aumento na concentração dos gases causadores do efeito estufa, os resultados aqui apresentados salientam as consequências das mudanças climáticas antropogênicas na distribuição de sal e calor dos oceanos. / South of Africa, the southwestward flowing Agulhas Current retroflects abruptly, shedding rings with saltier and warmer Indian Ocean waters into the relatively colder and fresher southeast portion of the South Atlantic. This Agulhas leakage connects the South Atlantic and Indian oceans subtropical gyres, and is partly responsible for the Atlantic Ocean high salinity. The connection between Indian Ocean and South Atlantic at the Agulhas retroflection area is limited to the south by the Subtropical Front, and is largely controlled by the location of the zero wind stress curl. Since the late 1960s, the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been showing a poleward shift possibly in response to the positive trend of the southern annular mode (SAM). To access the impact of these changes of the atmospheric forcing on the Agulhas leakage, an implementation of the HYCOM, forced with monthly means of NCEP/Reanalysis since 1948 was run. The results show an Agulhas leakage increase of 1.1 Sv per decade between 1960 and 2010. This inter-basin transport increase is correlated to a southward shift of the Subtropical Front, forced by the poleward migration of the westerlies. The results also show a positive trend in sea surface height and temperature at the Agulhas region as a consequence of the poleward shift of the Subtropical Front. The positive trends of these fields and the displacement of the Subtropical Front follow the positive trend of the SAM index, with higher values during austral summer months. As the SAM index trend is been assigned to the ozone depletion and to the increase of the greenhouse gases, these results highlight the consequences of the anthropogenic atmospheric changes on the heat and salt distribution within the oceans.

Ao sul da África, a Corrente das Agulhas sofre uma abrupta retroflexão, liberando anéis com águas mais quentes e mais salinas do Oceano Índico na região sudeste do Atlântico Sul. A transferência de águas do Índico para o Atlântico por meio de anéis e filamentos na região de retroflexão da Corrente das Agulhas é referida na literatura como o vazamento das Agulhas. Esse vazamento conecta os giros subtropicais do Atlântico Sul e do Índico, sendo parcialmente responsável pela alta salinidade do Oceano Atlântico. A comunicação entre esses dois giros subtropicais na área de retroflexão da Corrente das Agulhas é limitado ao sul pela Frente Subtropical, que é controlada pela posição do rotacional zero do tensão de cisalhamento do vento. Desde o final da década de 1960, os ventos de oeste do Hemisfério Sul tem sofrido uma migração em direção ao polo como reflexo da tendência positiva do índice do modo anular sul (SAM). Para investigar o impacto dessas mudanças na circulação atmosférica no vazamento das Agulhas, foi implementada uma rodada do modelo HYCOM forçada com médias mensais dos produtos de reanálise do NCEP entre 1948 e 2010. Os resultados mostram um aumento no vazamento das Agulhas de 1.1 Sv por década entre 1960 e 2010. O aumento nesse transporte interoceânico está relacionado a uma migração para o sul da Frente Subtropical, forçada pelo deslocamento para o sul dos ventos de oeste. Os resultados também mostram uma tendência positiva nos campos de altura da superfície livre e temperatura na região das Agulhas, sendo esses, consequência da migração para o sul da Frente Subtropical. A tendência positiva desses campos e o deslocamento para o sul da Frente Subtropical seguem a tendência positiva do índice da SAM, com valores mais altos durante o verão austral. Como a tendência do índice da SAM tem sido atribuída à redução na camada de ozônio e ao aumento na concentração dos gases causadores do efeito estufa, os resultados aqui apresentados salientam as consequências das mudanças climáticas antropogênicas na distribuição de sal e calor dos oceanos. / South of Africa, the southwestward flowing Agulhas Current retroflects abruptly, shedding rings with saltier and warmer Indian Ocean waters into the relatively colder and fresher southeast portion of the South Atlantic. This Agulhas leakage connects the South Atlantic and Indian oceans subtropical gyres, and is partly responsible for the Atlantic Ocean high salinity. The connection between Indian Ocean and South Atlantic at the Agulhas retroflection area is limited to the south by the Subtropical Front, and is largely controlled by the location of the zero wind stress curl. Since the late 1960s, the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been showing a poleward shift possibly in response to the positive trend of the southern annular mode (SAM). To access the impact of these changes of the atmospheric forcing on the Agulhas leakage, an implementation of the HYCOM, forced with monthly means of NCEP/Reanalysis since 1948 was run. The results show an Agulhas leakage increase of 1.1 Sv per decade between 1960 and 2010. This inter-basin transport increase is correlated to a southward shift of the Subtropical Front, forced by the poleward migration of the westerlies. The results also show a positive trend in sea surface height and temperature at the Agulhas region as a consequence of the poleward shift of the Subtropical Front. The positive trends of these fields and the displacement of the Subtropical Front follow the positive trend of the SAM index, with higher values during austral summer months. As the SAM index trend is been assigned to the ozone depletion and to the increase of the greenhouse gases, these results highlight the consequences of the anthropogenic atmospheric changes on the heat and salt distribution within the oceans.

La marge sud-chilienne constitue la seule masse continentale de l'hémisphère sud qui intercepte l'intégralité de la ceinture des vents d'ouest (SWW), en interaction avec la circulation océanique. Elle occupe donc une position stratégique pour les reconstructions paléoclimatiques et a fait l'objet d'une attention croissante ces dernières décennies. Dans le contexte des hautes latitudes sud de la marge chilienne, les objectifs de cette thèse se sont portés sur (1) l'établissement d'une chronostratigraphie précise basée sur des datations radiocarbone et la téphrochronologie et (2) sur la reconstruction de la dynamique de la calotte nord-Patagonienne en lien direct avec le régime des précipitations, les températures et/ou la dynamique interne des glaciers sur les derniers 22 ka BP à partir de l'étude d'un enregistrement marin à ultra haute résolution et à fort taux de sédimentation, collecté au large de la péninsule de Taitao (~46°S). Basé sur un modèle d'âge robuste par des datations radiocarbone associées à une étude téphrochronologique, l'enregistrement marin MD07-3088 permet une couverture temporelle large depuis le dernier maximum glaciaire, la déglaciation et l'Holocène. Plusieurs traceurs (minéralogie des argiles, granulométrie, géochimie inorganique) ont été utilisés afin de retracer la variabilité des sources et les fluctuations de la calotte nord patagonienne. Couplée aux paléoreconstructions des températures des eaux de surface et de la variabilité des proportions polliniques, cette étude a permis de retracer les variations dans le régime des précipitations et les interconnections entre les réservoirs océaniques et atmosphériques. Les résultats ont montré qu'au cours du DMG (22-18 ka BP), les températures globalement plus froides semblent contrôler les apports terrigènes en provenance de la chaine côtière proximale et la dynamique des glaciers. Lors de la déglaciation (18-11,5 ka BP), les conditions globalement plus chaudes marquent un changement radical dans la source des apports détritiques, avec une dominance de la cordillère andéenne distale. Cet intervalle est ponctué par 3 évènements de refroidissement, dont l'ACR (14,3-12,7 ka BP) pendant lesquels un regain de l'activité glaciaire est enregistré. Au cours de cet intervalle, l'expansion des tourbières Magellanes suggère des conditions climatiques plus froides et très humides résultant de la migration progressive vers le nord des Westerlies. L'Holocène Inférieur (11,5-8 ka BP) se caractérise par des conditions similaires à celles de la déglaciation avec la présence d'un événement plus grossier témoignant soit de l'influence de la légère baisse des températures (~2°C), soit d'un rôle plus important de la dynamique interne des glaciers. L'Holocène Moyen (8-3 ka BP) est illustré par la mise en place de la phase de Néoglaciation qui se traduit par un déplacement vers le nord de la cellule des vents d'ouest caractérisé par des forts apports de précipitations dans notre zone d'étude bien que peu de variations soient enregistrées dans les estimations des SST. Enfin, la faible variation des SST et la légère augmentation des précipitations enregistrées au cours de l'Holocène Inférieur (3 ka BP à l'actuel) témoignent d'un retour de la cellule des vents à une position similaire à l'actuel.

Dans le contexte du réchauffement climatique, les enregistrements paléoclimatiques à différentes échelles temporelles et spatiales apparaissent essentiels pour comprendre les mécanismes du climat. La Patagonie Chilienne (41°S à 56°S) parcourue du Nord au Sud par les Andes représente une contrainte topographique majeure sur les circulations atmosphériques et océaniques. Cette région est la seule qui intercepte la totalité de la ceinture des vents d'ouest austraux et constitue donc une zone clé pour étudier les changements paléoenvironnementaux et comprendre les mécanismes océan-atmosphère et leurs interactions aux moyennes et hautes latitudes de l'hémisphère sud. Dans ce contexte, les objectifs de cette thèse sont : (1) de tester l’analyse pollinique dans les sédiments marins de cette région, (2) d’étudier les modifications des paléoenvironnements continentaux au cours des 20 000 dernières années à partir de deux carottes océaniques de la campagne "PACHIDERME" (MD07-3088 et MD07-3104) et (3) de déterminer leurs liens avec l’activité des vents d’ouest et avec l’influence de ces vents dans l’hémisphère sud et donc sur le climat à l’échelle globale. Les analyses polliniques dans les sédiments marins de surface à l’intérieur et à l’extérieur des fjords de la Patagonie reflètent fidèlement la végétation actuelle développée sur le continent le plus proche, ce qui prouve la validité de la palynologie marine dans cette région. Au niveau de la péninsule de Taitao (46°S), l’expansion des forêts nord patagoniennes après 17.6 ka marque le début de la déglaciation. Cette dernière est interrompue par un évènement froid et humide, l’Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) qui s’exprime ici par le développement des tourbières de Magellan et est lié à l’intensification des vents d’ouest. Le développement de taxons héliophiles à ~11 ka illustre le début de l’Holocène sous des conditions plus chaudes et plus sèches qui sont également enregistrées autour du Fjord de Reloncavi (41°S). Ces conditions persistent jusqu’à ~8-7 ka, puis les changements de végétation aux cours de l’Holocène montrent une variabilité climatique plus importante évoluant vers un climat plus froid et plus humide qui se renforce au nord de la Patagonie après ~6-5 ka puis pendant l’Holocène supérieur. La comparaison de nos résultats avec les données paléoclimatiques de la région souligne les déplacements de la ceinture des vents d’ouest. Après une descente rapide vers le sud au début de la déglaciation, cette ceinture des vents d’ouest remonte vers le nord pendant l’ACR avant de redescendre à nouveau vers le sud à l’Holocène proche de sa position actuelle. Ce phénomène appuie l’hypothèse d’un lien entre les variations du CO2 atmosphérique et la ceinture des vents d’ouest jusqu’au début de l’Holocène. A partir de l’Holocène moyen et supérieur, la ceinture des vents d’ouest s’élargit avec un léger retour vers le nord probablement lié à la mise en place d’El Niño au niveau de l’océan Pacifique tropical. / In the context of global warming, paleoclimate records at different time and spatial scales appear critical to understand climate mechanisms. Chilean Patagonia (41°S to 56°S), crossed by the Andes from north to south, represents a major topographic constraint on ocean and atmospheric circulation. It is the only region that intercepts the entire southern westerly wind belt. Thus it represents a key-area for the study of paleoenvironmental changes in the southern hemisphere and the understanding of ocean-atmosphere mechanisms and their interactions from the mid- to high-latitudes of the southern hemisphere. In this context, the purposes are: (1) to test the pollen analysis on marine surface sediments in this region, (2) to study the continental changes of paleoenvironments during the last 20,000 years from two oceanic cores of the "PACHIDERME" campaign (MD07-3088 and MD07-3104) and (3) to evaluate their links with southern westerly wind belt activity and with the influence of these winds on the southern hemisphere and with the climate at a global scale. The pollen analyses of marine surface sediments in fjords or offshore from Chilean Patagonia reflect the present-day vegetation from the nearby continental area. At the Peninsula of Taitao (46°S), the North Patagonian forest expansion after 17.6 kyr shows the beginning of the deglaciation. This last (period) is interrupted by a wet and cool event, the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR), that was expressed here by development of the Magellanic moorland linked to the southern westerly wind intensification. The expansion of heliophytic taxa at ~11 kyr illustrates the beginning of the Holocene under warmer and drier conditions that are also recorded around the fjord of Reloncavi (41°S). These conditions persisted until ~8-7 kyr, and then the vegetation changes during the Holocene show a larger climate variability toward a cooler and wetter climate that enhances in northern Patagonia later ~6-5 kyr during the Late Holocene. Our results compared with the regional paleoclimatic data highlight the shifts of the southern westerly wind belt. After a rapid southward shift at the beginning of the deglaciation, the southern westerly wind belt returns northward during the ACR before reaching southern latitudes near to their present-day position. This scheme strengthens the inference of the link between atmospheric CO2 variability and the southern westerly wind belt up to the Early Holocene. From the mid and late Holocene, the southern westerly wind belt was displaced northward with a slight return probably linked to the beginning of El Niño recorded in tropical Pacific Ocean.