In this dissertation, I combined a scenario-based, standard-response optimization model with a stochastic simulation model to improve the efficiency of the deployment of initial attack firefighting resources on wildland fires in California and the Republic of Korea. The optimization model minimizes the expected number of fires that do not receive a standard response���defined as the number of resources by type that must arrive at the fire within a specified time limit���subject to budget and station capacity constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of fire count, fire locations, fire ignition times, and fire behavior occur. Compared with the current deployment, the deployment obtained with optimization shifts resources from the planning unit with the highest fire load to the planning unit with the highest standard response requirements. Resource deployments that result from relaxing constraints on station capacity achieve greater containment success by encouraging consolidation of resources into stations with high dispatch frequency, thus increasing the probability of resource availability on high fire count days. I extended the standard response framework to examine how a policy priority influences the optimal spatial allocation and performance of initial attack resources. I found that the policy goal of a fire manager changes the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack firefighting resources on a heterogeneous landscape, especially, for the socio-economic value of a potential fire location. Furthermore, I investigated the tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea where most fires are caused by human activities. I found that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea on reducing the expected number of fires not receiving the standard response. From the comparison of the California and Republic of Korea cases, I can identify "rules of thumb" to be followed when allocating IA resources in particular ecological and policy settings. / Graduation date: 2013

With the same force that human activities accelerate and amplify change in the biosphere, human agency can play a critical role in influencing future trajectories. However, managing increasingly complex problems is becoming ever more challenging. Among other things, it requires a systemic thinking about the future to anticipate how intertwined drivers may respond to rapid change. This thesis addresses such challenge in the context of contemporary wildfires, which are becoming increasingly complex to manage and a growing global concern. The study adopted a novel approach (Chapter 3) to study wildfire as a complex social-ecological system. The overarching aim is to generate insights into wildfire causes, effects and feedbacks to anticipate future wildfire risk and inform management strategies that can prevent potential impacts. I combine different disciplinary lenses, multiple spatial scales of analysis and participatory methods to analyse wildfire dynamics in the Chiquitania region, located in the Department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia, at the southern edge of Amazonia. This region has a unique tropical dry forest that is susceptible to changes in climate and fire regimes, and a rapidly expanding agricultural frontier. During the recent 2010 drought, large wildfires affected this region intensifying public concern about potential 'mega-fires', particularly given predictions of more extreme seasonality in the future. The first research paper of this thesis (Chapter 4) evaluates the effects of wildfire recurrence on the forests of the Chiquitania using ecological surveys. In addition to significant biomass loss, the observed patterns in species abundance and dominance suggest that the forests respond to recurrent fires through a shift in tree species composition, with fire-tolerant species becoming more dominant. The second research paper (Chapter 5) analyses future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region using fuzzy cognitive mapping. This conceptual modelling approach engaged different actor groups in the region to integrate their perspectives of the regional wildfire dynamics. Semi-structured interviews informed the scenario assumptions which considered failure to respond in time to wildfire risk, as well as implementation of alternative management strategies. Unexpectedly, the fire management strategy showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the fire suppression strategy. The high vulnerability of the agricultural production to wildfire risk has implications for local communities that largely depend on agriculture for subsistence if future climatic conditions become drier. The third research chapter (Chapter 6) uses interviews and focus group discussions to analyse how different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire relate to prevalent wildfire risk strategies in the Chiquitania. The analysis reveals that strategies are in tension between two conflicting narratives and understandings of fire. On this basis, a deliberation process is proposed with the potential to integrate opposing views into more inclusive and collective solutions to manage wildfire risk within a reflexive governance framework. The fourth research paper (Chapter 7) complements the above ground-based studies with a regional assessment of wildfire risk based on remotely sensed land cover, anthropogenic and climatic data. Maximum entropy was used as a probabilistic modelling approach to simulate future wildfire risk scenarios driven by different development trajectories, and assuming changing climatic conditions. Important determinants of wildfire risk were climate, road development, deforestation and density of human settlements. Positive feedbacks between rapid frontier expansion and drought conditions almost doubled potential biomass loss compared to estimates in the 2010 drought. Land used for agriculture and cattle ranching showed particularly high levels of wildfire risk, with serious implications for the subsistence and economy in the Chiquitania if the agricultural frontier is expanded at an accelerated rate. The combination of new findings and modelling tools developed in this thesis are relevant to inform wildfire risk management decisions in the Chiquitania. The timing is fitting as the regional government of Santa Cruz is developing a ten-year programme to address increased wildfire risk at the time of thesis submission, and the recently launched Regional Fire Platform promotes dialogue about possible solutions. More broadly, the approach to study wildfire as a social-ecological system has proven extremely useful to generate insights into different facets of a complex problem that is becoming a major concern in most of Amazonia and globally. This thesis generates important theoretical and practical contributions to the study of social-ecological systems, and provides a concrete example of how increasingly complex problems can be anticipated and managed under climate change and rapidly changing conditions with a more integrated and socially inclusive approach that can inform adaptation decisions for more sustainable futures.

Over the past century in the western United States, warming has produced larger and more severe wildfires than previously recorded. General circulation models and their ensembles project continued increases in temperature and the proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Warmer and wetter conditions may change forest successional trajectories by modifying rates of vegetation establishment, competition, growth, reproduction, and mortality. Many questions remain regarding how these changes will occur across landscapes and how disturbances, such as wildfire, may interact with changes to climate and vegetation. Forest management is used to proactively modify forest structure and composition to improve fire resilience. Yet, research is needed to assess how to best utilize mechanical fuel reduction and prescribed fire at the landscape scale. Human communities also exist within these landscapes, and decisions regarding how to manage forests must carefully consider how management will affect such communities. In this work, I analyzed three aspects of forest management at large spatiotemporal scales: (1) climate effects on forest composition and wildfire activity; (2) efficacy of fuel management strategies toward reducing wildfire spread and severity; and, (3) local resident perspectives on forest management. Using a forest landscape model, simulations of forest dynamics were used to investigate relationships among climate, wildfire, and topography with long-term changes in biomass for a fire-prone dry-conifer landscape in eastern Oregon. Under climate change, wildfire was more frequent, more expansive, and more severe, and ponderosa pine expanded its range into existing shrublands and high-elevation zones. There was a near-complete loss of native high-elevation tree species, such as Engelmann spruce and whitebark pine. Loss of these species were most strongly linked to burn frequency; this effect was greatest at high elevations and on steep slopes. Fuel reduction was effective at reducing wildfire spread and severity compared to unmanaged landscapes. Spatially optimizing mechanical removal of trees in areas at risk for high-severity wildfire was equally effective as distributing tree removal across the landscape. Tripling the annual area of prescribed burns was needed to affect landscape-level wildfire spread and severity, and distributing prescribed burns across the study area was more effective than concentrating fires in high-risk areas. I conclude that forest management can be used to reduce wildfire activity in dry-mixed conifer forests and that spatially optimizing mechanical treatments in high-risk areas can be a useful tool for reducing the cost and ecological impact associated with harvest operations. While reducing the severity and spread of wildfire may slow some long-term species shifts, high sub-alpine tree mortality occurred under all climate and fuel treatment scenarios. Thus, while forest management may prolong the existence of sub-alpine forests, shifts in temperature, precipitation, and wildfire may overtake management within this century. The use of PPGIS was useful for delineating the range of forest management preferences within the local community, for identifying areas of agreement among residents who have otherwise polarized views, and for generating modeling inputs that reflect views that may not be obtained through extant official channels for public participation. Because the local community has concerns about the use of prescribed fire, more education and outreach is needed. This may increase public acceptance of the amounts of prescribed fire needed to modify wildfire trajectories under future climate conditions.

Wildfires destroy large tracts of veld and forest land every year in South Africa. These fires can be devastating, resulting in loss of human lives, the destruction of property and the loss of income, for example the forest fire in the Sabie district in Mpumalanga in 2007 which destroyed about 7% of South Africa’s forested areas. There are frequently legal disputes with respect to the origin of wildfires, the extent of the fire and the land cover destroyed by the fires. The forensic capabilities of remote sensing in detecting and analysing post-wildfire characteristics have become an important contribution towards solving such legal disputes and in understanding wildfire characteristics. These post fire products can be used as evidence in court cases. Most of the time those court cases came up a few years after the fire event. By then, little or no evidence can be found on the terrain where the fire was. Remote sensing archives provide a reliable source of data that can be used to analyse these events after these long intervals. The objective of this project is to highlight the methods used to generate these post-wildfire analysis products. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

Wildfires destroy large tracts of veld and forest land every year in South Africa. These fires can be devastating, resulting in loss of human lives, the destruction of property and the loss of income, for example the forest fire in the Sabie district in Mpumalanga in 2007 which destroyed about 7% of South Africa’s forested areas. There are frequently legal disputes with respect to the origin of wildfires, the extent of the fire and the land cover destroyed by the fires. The forensic capabilities of remote sensing in detecting and analysing post-wildfire characteristics have become an important contribution towards solving such legal disputes and in understanding wildfire characteristics. These post fire products can be used as evidence in court cases. Most of the time those court cases came up a few years after the fire event. By then, little or no evidence can be found on the terrain where the fire was. Remote sensing archives provide a reliable source of data that can be used to analyse these events after these long intervals. The objective of this project is to highlight the methods used to generate these post-wildfire analysis products. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)