The relationship between specific synoptic and mesoscale snowfall producing system types and their associated mean upper-level flow patterns are examined to determine their impacts on snowfall magnitudes in central Indiana. Chi-square and ANOVA tests are conducted to determine the relationship of the 850mb temperature, the 1000-500mb thickness, 500mb flow pattern, and phase of the Southern Oscillation Index to snowfall amounts for the period of record 1974-2003. Results suggest that variables such as the 1000-500mb thickness, system type, and phase of the Southern Oscillation Index do affect the magnitude of snowfall in central Indiana on a variety of temporal scales ranging from days to entire seasons. / Department of Geography

We present spectral line mapping observations towards four massive star-forming regions Cepheus A, DR21S, S76E and G34.26+0.15 - with the IRAM 30-m telescope at the 2 and 3 mm bands. In total, 396 spectral lines from 51 molecules, one helium recombination line, 10 hydrogen recombination lines and 16 unidentified lines were detected in these four sources. An emission line of nitrosyl cyanide (ONCN, 14(0), 14-13(0), (13)) was detected in G34.26+0.15, as the first detection in massive star-forming regions. We found that c-C3H2 and NH2D show enhancement in shocked regions, as suggested by the evidence of SiO and/or SO emission. The column density and rotational temperature of CH3CN were estimated with the rotational diagram method for all four sources. Isotope abundance ratios of C-12/C-13 were derived using HC3N and its C-13 isotopologue, which were around 40 in all four massive star-forming regions and slightly lower than the local interstellar value (similar to 65). The N-14/N-15 and O-16/O-18 abundance ratios in these sources were also derived using the double isotopic method, which were slightly lower than in the local interstellar medium. Except for Cep A, the S-33/S-34 ratios in the other three targets were derived, which were similar to that in the local interstellar medium. The column density ratios of N(DCN)/N(HCN) and N( DCO+)/N(HCO+) in these sources were more than two orders of magnitude higher than the elemental [D]/[H] ratio, which is 1.5 x 10(-5). Our results show that the later stage sources, G34.26+0.15 in particular, present more molecular species than earlier stage sources. Evidence of shock activity is seen in all stages studied.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Performance of high resolution mesoscale models has been in a continuous state of refinement since their inception. Mesoscale models have become quite skillful in forecasting synoptic scale events such as mid-latitude cyclones. However, atmospheric forcing becomes a much more complicated process when faced with the challenge of forecasting near topography along the coastline. Phenomena such as gap flows, blocked flow winds and low level stratification become important to predictability at these scales. The problem is further complicated by the dynamics of a frontal passage event. The skill of mesoscale models in predicting these winds is not as well developed. This study examines several forecasts by the Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) during frontal passage events for the Winter of 2003-2004. An attempt is made to characterize the predictability of the wind speed and direction both before and after frontal passage along the California coast. Synoptic forcing during this time is strong due to the effects of the mid-latitude cyclones propagate across the Pacific. The study's results indicate that the wind field predictability is subject to several consistent errors associated with the passage of fronts over topography. These errors arise due to difficulty in the model capturing weak thermal advection events and topographic wind funneling. The deficiencies in model representation of topography contributes to these errors. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

This study focuses on understanding the development of gap outflow and the air-sea interaction processes during the 26 February 2004 Tehuano event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. The Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) was used to simulate the gap wind event and was compared to satellite, scatterometer, and coincident in situ aircraft and dropsondes measurements collected during the Gulf of Tehuantepec Experiment (GOTEX). Comparisons between model results and the observations suggest that COAMPS performed the best in simulating the outflow jet within 200 km offshore, although the simulated surface fluxes deviated significantly from the observations. This is the region where the dominant dynamical forcing arises from the coastal topography. Larger discrepancies were found in model result further away from the coast, especially to the south and southeast of the gulf where the air-sea exchange became increasingly important. Detailed inter-comparison between COAMPS and the aircraft measurements at 40 m also shows the strong spatial and temporal variations of boundary layer thermodynamics and turbulence, which require improved characterization of the sea surface temperature, upper air conditions, and initial conditions for COAMPS. The results also point to the needs for improved surface flux parameterization, particularly in high wind conditions.

Supernova (SN) 2005ip was a Type IIn event notable for its sustained strong interaction with circumstellar material (CSM), coronal emission lines and infrared (IR) excess, interpreted as shock interaction with the very dense and clumpy wind of an extreme red supergiant. We present a series of late- time spectra of SN 2005ip and a first radio detection of this SN, plus late-time X-rays, all of which indicate that its CSM interaction is still strong a decade post- explosion. We also present and discuss new spectra of geriatric SNe with continued CSM interaction: SN 1988Z, SN 1993J and SN 1998S. From 3 to 10 yr post- explosion, SN 2005ip's Ha luminosity and other observed characteristics were nearly identical to those of the radio- luminous SN 1988Z, and much more luminous than SNe 1993J and 1998S. At 10 yr after explosion, SN 2005ip showed a drop in Ha luminosity, followed by a quick resurgence over several months. We interpret this Ha variability as ejecta crashing into a dense shell located less than or similar to 0.05 pc from the star, which may be the same shell that caused the IR echo at earlier epochs. The extreme Ha luminosities in SN 2005ip and SN 1988Z are still dominated by the forward shock at 10 yr post- explosion, whereas SN 1993J and SN 1998S are dominated by the reverse shock at a similar age. Continuous strong CSM interaction in SNe 2005ip and 1988Z is indicative of enhanced mass- loss for similar to 10(3) yr before core collapse, longer than Ne, O or Si burning phases. Instead, the episodic mass- loss must extend back through C burning and perhaps even part of He burning.

The Galactic blue supergiant SBW1 with its circumstellar ring nebula represents the best known analogue of the progenitor of SN 1987A. High-resolution imaging has shown H alpha and infrared structures arising in an ionized flow that partly fills the ring's interior. To constrain the influence of the stellar wind on this structure, we obtained an ultraviolet (UV) spectrum of the central star of SBW1 with the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph. The UV spectrum shows none of the typical wind signatures, indicating a very low mass-loss rate. Radiative transfer models suggest an extremely low rate below 10(-10) M-circle dot yr(-1), although we find that cooling time-scales probably become comparable to (or longer than) the flow time below 10(-8) M-circle dot yr(-1). We therefore adopt this latter value as a conservative upper limit. For the central star, the model yields T-eff = 21 000 +/- 1000 K, log(g(eff)) = 3.0, L similar or equal to 5 x 10(4) L-circle dot, and roughly Solar composition except for enhanced N abundance. SBW1' s very low mass-loss rate may hinder the wind's ability to shape its nebula and to shed angular momentum. The spin-down time-scale for magnetic breaking is more than 500 times longer than the age of the ring. This, combined with the star's slow rotation rate, constrains merger scenarios to form ring nebulae. The mass-loss rate is at least 10 times lower than expected from mass-loss recipes, without any account of clumping. The physical explanation for why SBW1' s wind is so weak presents an interesting mystery.

We present late-time Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of the site of supernova (SN) 2009ip taken almost 3 yr after its bright 2012 luminosity peak. SN 2009ip is now slightly fainter in broad filters than the progenitor candidate detected by HST in 1999. The current source continues to be dominated by ongoing late-time circumstellar material interaction that produces strong Ha emission and a weak pseudo-continuum, as found previously for 1-2 yr after explosion. The intent of these observations was to search for evidence of recent star formation in the local (similar to 1 kpc; 10 arcsec) environment around SN 2009ip, in the remote outskirts of its host spiral galaxy NGC 7259. We can rule out the presence of any massive star-forming complexes like 30 Dor or the Carina nebula at the SN site or within a few kpc. If the progenitor of SN 2009ip was really a 50-80 M-circle dot star as archival HST images suggested, then it is strange that there is no sign of this type of massive star formation anywhere in the vicinity. A possible explanation is that the progenitor was the product of a merger or binary mass transfer, rejuvenated after a lifetime that was much longer than 4-5 Myr, allowing its natal H II region to have faded. A smaller region like the Orion nebula would be an unresolved but easily detected point source. This is ruled out within similar to 1.5 kpc around SN 2009ip, but a small H II region could be hiding in the glare of SN 2009ip itself. Later images after a few more years have passed are needed to confirm that the progenitor candidate is truly gone and to test for the possibility of a small H II region or cluster at the SN position.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The defense response to a Chemical and Biological attack would be importantly based on predicting the dispersion of a toxic cloud. Considering that an Unmanned Air Vehicle would provide the capability for embedding and positioning inertial and air data sensors geographically as required, real-time wind estimation can be performed for every actual position of the flying device in order to predict the plume moving direction. The efforts in this thesis concentrate on the demonstration and validation of procedures for obtaining Wind Estimation close to real-time and its instantaneous display. The presented work is based on a particular UAV platform available at the NPS Aeronautical Department and it aims to establish a general methodology, which may be used on other flying devices with similar available sensors. An accurate estimation of real wind for a particular combat scenario will enable operational units to have a near real-time decision aid. This final result could be integrated into a Command and Control net, to assist in a focused way the response to a Chemical and Biological attack and to map the source or the region to be affected. / Lieutenant Commander, Chilean Navy

Les radars à synthèse d'ouverture (SAR) spatioportés ont fait la preuve de leur valeur inestimable dans l'observation des vents et des vagues océaniques mondiaux. Les images SAR acquises par plusieurs capteurs sont utilisées, notamment Sentinel-1 (S-1), Envisat/ASAR, Gaofen-3 et Radarsat-2. Cette thèse passe en revue les paramètres SAR couramment utilisés dans la première partie. Une série d'étapes d'étalonnage sont nécessaires pour obtenir un NRCS approprié et une évaluation du NRCS est effectuée pour le mode d'onde S-1 (WV). Il s'avère que WV est mal calibré et est donc recalibré pour obtenir un NRCS précis. Il a été démontré que la coupure de l'azimut est complémentaire du NRCS et peut expliquer l'impact de l'état de la mer sur l'extraction du vent. D'après les produits SAR entièrement polarimétriques disponibles, la coupure de l'azimut varie considérablement en fonction des polarisations. La transformation actuelle de la cartographie SAR est suffisante pour interpréter la coupure azimutale copolarisée, mais pas pour la polarisation croisée. Compte tenu des limites de l'imagerie SAR, un nouveau paramètre est proposé et défini en fonction du spectre croisé de l'image SAR, appelé MACS. La partie imaginaire de MACS est une quantité signée par rapport à la direction du vent. Compte tenu de cette dépendance, on s'attend à ce qu'un algorithme indépendant de récupération du vent en bénéficie. L'ampleur du MACS peut aider à estimer la fonction de modulation de la cartographie SAR. De plus, la MACS donne également des résultats prometteurs en ce qui concerne les études globales sur les vagues. Les signatures globales du MACS à différentes longueurs d'onde sont bien représentatives de la distribution spatiale et saisonnière des vents. Les MACS des vagues longues montrent des valeurs plus élevées sur les trajectoires des tempêtes alors que les vagues plus courtes sont principalement dans les vents des trader. Ces résultats devraient aider à évaluer les résultats du modèle et compléter les études ultérieures sur le climat spectral global des vagues. / Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has been demonstrated invaluable in observing the global ocean winds and waves. SAR images acquired by multiple sensors are employed, including Sentinel-1(S-1), Envisat/ASAR, Gaofen-3 and Radarsat-2. This thesis reviews the commonly used SAR parameters (NRCS and azimuth cutoff) in the first part. A series of calibration steps are required to obtain a proper NRCS and assessment of NRCS is carried out for S-1wave mode (WV). It turns out that WV is poorly calibrated and is thus re-calibrated to obtain accurate NRCS. Azimuth cut off is demonstrated to be complementary to NRCS and can account for the sea state impact on the wind retrieval. Based on the available fully polarimetric SAR products, azimuth cut off is found to vary greatly with polarizations. The present SAR mapping transformation is sufficient to interpret the co-polarized azimuth cut off, while not for the cross-polarization. With the limitations of SAR imaging in mind, a new parameter is proposed and defined based on the SAR image cross-spectra, termed as MACS. The imaginary part of MACS is found to be a signed quantity relative to the wind direction. Given this dependence, an independent wind retrieval algorithm is expected to benefit. The magnitude of MACS is able to aid for estimate of modulation function of SAR mapping. In addition, MACS also gives promising results regarding the global wave studies. The global signatures of MACS at various wave lengths are well representative of the winds distributions, spatially and seasonally. MACS of long waves shows greater values over the storm tracks while the shorter waves are mostly within the trader winds. These results are expected to help evaluate the model outputs and complement further studies of the global wave spectral climate. Data continuity in the coming 10 years shall extend the study towards longer duration.

Neste trabalho foi desenvolvido um novo m´etodo de s´ntese espectral para modelar o disco de acres¸cao de vari´aveis catacl´smicas (VCs) nao magn´eticas. O principal objetivo deste trabalho ´e analisar a emissao do cont´nuo e das linhas em uma ampla faixa espectral no ultravioleta (UV). O disco ´e separado em an´eis concentricos e, para cada anel uma atmosfera de disco com vento ´e calculada. Na base, as atmosferas sao calculadas consistemente com o vento, tendo a distribui¸cao de densidade dos modelos de atmosferas de disco de Wade e Hubeny. A estrutura ´e calculada no sistema co-m´ovel com um perfil de velocidade vertical obtido da solu¸cao da equa¸cao de Euler para um disco de acres¸cao. O comportamento das linhas e do cont´nuo como fun¸cao da inclina¸cao orbital ´e consistente com as observa¸coes. Tamb´em foi verificado que a taxa de acres¸cao influi sobre a temperatura do vento levando `as mudan¸cas correspondentes nas intensidades relativas das linhas. Foi encontrado que a massa da prim´aria tem uma forte influencia na profundidade dos perfis de absor¸cao. Tamb´em, encontramos que a os perfis de linha sao fortemente sens´veis ao incremento da taxa de perda de massa, aumentado a intensidade das linhas de emissao. Foram escolhidos dados espectrosc´opicos no UV de duas VCs Nova-like (NL) de baixa inclina¸cao, RW Sex e V3885 Sgr e dois sistemas de alta inclina¸cao, RW Tri e V347 Pup. Uma concordancia dos perfis em emissao dos modelos foi encontrada quando confrontados com os dados no caso de sistemas de alta inclina¸cao. Uma falta de fluxo nas linhas de alta ioniza¸cao Civ ¸¸1548,1551 and Nv ¸¸1238,1242, pode ser o sinal da influencia da boundary layer (BL) ou da influencia da irradia¸cao das regioes externas do vento pelo disco interno. Estas influencias seriam cruciais no caso de sistemas baixa inclina¸cao, mas sao menores no caso de sistemas de alta inclina¸cao. / We have developed a new spectral synthesis method for modeling the accretion disk of non-magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs). The aim of this work is to analyze the continuum and line emission of disks in a wide ultraviolet (UV) spectral range. The disk is separated in concentric rings, and for each ring a wind plus disk atmosphere are calculated. The wind atmospheres are calculated consistently with a density given by Wade and Hubeny disk-atmosphere models at their base. The structure is calculated in the co-moving frame with a vertical velocity profile defined by the Eulers equation solution for the disk wind. We found that the resulting line and continuum behavior as a function of the orbital inclination is consistent with the observations. We also verify that the accretion rate changes the wind temperature, leading to corresponding trends in the intensity of lines. We found that the primary mass has a strong effect on the absorption profiles depth. It was verified that the lines profiles are strongly sensitive to the wind temperature structure and a rise of mass loss rate increases the line intensity. Selected UV data for two high orbital inclination nova-like (NL) CVs, RW Tri and V347 Pup, were confronted with synthetic spectra. The line widths and profiles are reasonably well reproduced by the models. A lack of flux in some high ionization lines (C iv ¸¸1548,1551 and Nv ¸¸1238,1242) may be the signature of the boundary layer (BL) effect and/or the irradiation of outer wind by inner disk. We also found that for high inclination systems the vertical wind structure is less important than for low inclination system models.