Peak energy is the notion that the world’s total production of usable energy will reach a maximum value and then begin an inexorable decline. Ninety-two percent of the world’s energy is currently derived from the non-renewable sources (oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear). As each of these non-renewable sources individually peaks in production, we can see total energy production peak. The human population is tightly correlated with global energy production, as agriculture and material possessions are energy intensive. It follows that peak energy should have a significant effect on world population. Using a set of mathematical models, including M King Hubbert’s oil peak mathematics, we prepared three models. The first approached the peak energy and population problem from the point of view of a “black-box” homogeneous world. The second model divides the world into ten major regions to study the global heterogeneity of the peak energy and population question. Both of these models include various scenarios for how the world population will develop based on available energy and per capita consumption of that energy. The third model examines energy and climate change within the forty-eight contiguous American states in order to identify some of the “best” and some of the “worst” states in which to live in the year 2050. The black box model indicates that peak energy will occur in 2026 at a maximum production of 104.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE). Total energy production in 2011 was 92.78 BBOE. Three scenarios of different energy consumption rates suggest a peak world population occurring between 2026 and 2036, at 7.6-8.3 billion. The regional model indicates that even as each region protects its own energy resources, most of the world will reach peak energy by 2030, and world populations peak between 7.5 and 9 billion. A certain robustness in our conclusion is warranted as similar numbers were obtained via two separate approaches. The third model used several different parameters in order to ascertain that, in general, states that are projected to slow towards flat-line population growth and to become milder due to climate change such as Rhode Island, New York and Ohio are far more suitable with regard to an energy limited world than states that are projected to grow in population as well as become less mild due to climate change such as Texas, Arizona and Nevada. Each of these models in its own way foreshadows necessary changes that the world will experience as the 21st century progresses. The economies of the world have been, and continue to be, built on energy. When energy production is unable to continue growing it must follow that economies will be unable to grow. As the world approaches and passes peak energy, the standard of living in the less developed areas of the world cannot improve without sacrifices being made in the developed world.

Martin Luther succinctly summarized his theology in sola statements, such as sola scriptura, viewing the Bible (scriptura) as the only valid source of information about God rather than what he viewed as the extraneous, corrupting church doctrine of the time. As a secular side effect of this focus on individual reading skills, the Protestant territories were the first to acquire high literacy rates, which subsequently fostered health, economic growth, and good governance. Here I argue that a similar priority focus on empowerment of all segments of all populations through education and health (sola schola et sanitate) is needed today for sustainable development. According to decades of research, education and health are essential prerequisites for ending poverty and hunger, for improving institutions and participation in society, for voluntary fertility declines and ending world population growth, for changing behavior and adoption of new and clean technologies, and for enhancing adaptive capacity to already unavoidable climate change. This approach avoids paternalistic imposition of development policies by focusing external aid on enabling people to help themselves, their families, and communities. Prioritizing education and health also helps move more industrialized, aging societies from a focus on material consumption to one on quality of life. Sola schola et sanitate suggests that well-being will increasingly be based on health, continued mental stimulation, and consumption of cultural products, rather than fossil fuels and materials. Thus, cognition - or brain power - can be viewed as the zero-emissions energy for sustainable development.

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex - as is conventionally done in demographic projections - but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with themedium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

„Menschen benötigen Platz zum Leben.“ In dieser Erkenntnis liegt noch nichts Besonderes oder gar Aufregendes. Erst die Tatsache, dass die menschliche Bevölkerung seit jeher zunimmt, aber der zur Verfügung stehende Platz konstant bleibt bzw. die Ressourcen in ihrem Bestand sogar abnehmen, macht dieses Thema wesentlich gehaltvoller. Offensichtlich ist außerdem: „Population growth seems to affect everything but is seldom held responsible for anything.“ (McKee 2003: 10) Dies ist der Hauptgrund dafür, dass gerade die Thematik der Bevölkerungsentwicklung internationale Beachtung und Aufmerksamkeit verdient.

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

Despite the fact that on average less children are being born and calming messages that the population issue has basically solved itself, the world population is continuously growing. Around mid century it is estimated that approximately 70 per cent of the world’s population will be living in urban environments. This translates to an absolute increase of roughly 3.6 billion urban citizen today, to nearly 8 billion urban citizen by mid century. This unprecedented growth is going to have major impact on today’s urban societies and administrative boundaries. Especially coastal cities will feel an increased pressure while the urbanization takes another upsurge. The geographical limitations and scarcity of land in these coastal areas pushes the extension of administrative city boundaries sea inward, making land reclamation a popular tool for these governments. Nevertheless, this expected growth and the increased popularity of land reclamation seriously endangers the remaining natural wetlands. Alternative solutions of creating artificial "human made" land by reclaiming, could be a possible direct solution for modern urbanism. As a result of the unprecedented growth, natural resources are getting rapidly depleted and sustainability is being compromised. Over the total run of history, approximately 65 per cent of the world’s wetlands have been in fractioned, polluted, destroyed, altered or lost by human activities. This master’s thesis consists out of a deep, qualitative, integrative and contextual literature review. The literature review is focused on population forecasts, urbanization and growth trends, followed by an analyses of various land reclamation cases around the world. Though, the research will include a quantitative data overview this research is a qualitative research. The collection of the quantitative data regarding urbanization and growth trends will be done by using the database of United Nations, World Bank and Gapminder. Land reclamation, as a proposed solution, sets off a certain type of trade off mechanism. Large reclamation projects on one hand serve as great boosters for the economy and urban development, while on the other hand, these projects have severe implications on natural habitat from both marine and land species. Social benefits can both be realized through economic gains by land reclamation or social benefits from natural preservation. This implies land reclamation has basically two dimensions: a socioeconomic dimension and a socio-environmental dimension. A tradeoff between these two dimensions determine whether or not a land reclamation project for a specific geographical location could be economically, socially and environmentally feasible. With proper integrated and inter related governmental land planning processes, strong environmental considerations and increased public involvement, land reclamation could be sustainably feasible.

This thesis is focused on the development of HIV/AIDS mortality in the world starting from the year 1990 and the main goal is estimating the possible future development of the number of inhabitants of the world and defined regions and the influence of HIV/AIDS on the number of inhabitants up to the year 2065. The possible number of HIV/AIDS deaths and people, who were not born because of HIV and AIDS, is computed up to this year. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the most important institutions, which include fight against HIV and AIDS as a part of ther programme, are presented. Natural history of HIV infection and the successes in the research of HIV vaccine are described. In the analytical part, the demographic reproduction of the population of the world and selected regions between years 1950 and 2010 is described, followed by population projection of the world and regions up to year 2065 using the cohort component method. The projection is created in four variants. The first one eliminates the HIV/AIDS mortality. The second one is the constant variant, which conserve the level of HIV/AIDS mortality from the year 2010 up to the year 2065. Last two variants, higher and lower, consider changing levels of HIV/AIDS mortality at time. According to the results of this population projection,...