The recent high profile flooding events – that have occurred in many parts of the world – have drawn attention to the need for new and improved methods for water resources assessment, water management and the modelling of large-scale flooding events. In the case of the Zambezi Basin, a review of the 2000 and 2001 floods identified the need for tools to enable hydrologists to assess and predict daily stream flow and identify the areas that are likely to be affected by flooding. As a way to address the problem, a methodology was set up to derive catchment soil moisture statistics from Earth Observation (EO) data and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models for improving reservoir management in a data scarce environment. Rainfall data were obtained from the FEWSNet Web site and computed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climatic Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC). These datasets were processed and used to monitor rainfall variability and subsequently fed into a hydrological model to predict the daily flows for the Zambezi River Basin. The hydrological model used was the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). GeoSFM is a spatially semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, parameterised using spatially distributed topographic data, soil characteristics and land cover data sets available globally from both Remote Sensing and in situ sources. The Satellite rainfall data were validated against data from twenty (20) rainfall gauges located on the Lower Zambezi. However, at several rain gauge stations (especially those with complex topography, which tended to experience high rainfall spatial variability), there was no direct correlation between the satellite estimates and the ground data as recorded in daily time steps. The model was calibrated for seven gauging stations. The calibrated model performed quite well at seven selected locations (R2=0.66 to 0.90, CE=0.51 to 0.88, RSR=0.35 to 0.69, PBIAS=−4.5 to 7.5). The observed data were obtained from the National Water Agencies of the riparian countries. After GeoSFM calibration, the model generated an integration of the flows into a reservoir and hydropower model to optimise the operation of Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams were selected because this study considers these two dams as the major infrastructures for controlling and alleviating floods in the Zambezi River Basin. Other dams (such as the Kafue and Itezhi-Thezi) were recognised in terms of their importance but including them was beyond the scope of this study because of financial and time constraints. The licence of the reservoir model was limited to one year for the same reason. The reservoir model used was the MIKE BASIN, a professional engineering software package and quasi-steady-state mass balance modelling tool for integrated river basin and management, developed by the Denmark Hydraulic Institute (DHI) in 2003. The model was parameterised by the geometry of the reservoir basin (level, area, volume relationships) and by the discharge-level (Q-h) relationship of the dam spillways. The integrated modelling system simulated the daily flow variation for all Zambezi River sub-basins between 1998 and 2008 and validated between 2009 and 2011. The resulting streamflows have been expressed in terms of hydrograph comparisons between simulated and observed flow values at the four gauging stations located downstream of Cahora Bassa dam. The integrated model performed well, between observed and forecast streamflows, at four selected gauging stations (R2=0.53 to 0.90, CE=0.50 to 0.80, RSR=0.49 to 0.69, PBIAS=−2.10 to 4.8). From the results of integrated modelling, it was observed that both Kariba and Cahora Bassa are currently being operated based on the maximum rule curve and both remain focused on maximising hydropower production and ensuring dam safety rather than other potential influences by the Zambezi River (such as flood control downstream – where the communities are located – and environmental issues). In addition, the flood mapping analysis demonstrated that the Cahora Bassa dam plays an important part in flood mitigation downstream of the dams. In the absence of optimisation of flow releases from both the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, in additional to the contribution of any other tributaries located downstream of the dams, the impact of flooding can be severe. As such, this study has developed new approaches for flood monitoring downstream of the Zambezi Basin, through the application of an integrated modelling system. The modelling system consists of: predicting daily streamflow (using the calibrated GeoSFM), then feeding the predicted streamflow into MIKE BASIN (for checking the operating rules) and to optimise the releases. Therefore, before releases are made, the flood maps can be used as a decision-making tool to both assess the impact of each level of release downstream and to identify the communities likely to be affected by the flood – this ensures that the necessary warnings can be issued before flooding occurs. Finally an integrated flood management tool was proposed – to host the results produced by the integrated system – which would then be accessible for assessment by the different users. These results were expressed in terms of water level (m). Four discharge-level (Q-h) relationships were developed for converting the simulated flow into water level at four selected sites downstream of Cahora Bassa dam – namely: Cahora Bassa dam site, Tete (E-320), Caia (E-291) and Marromeu (E-285). However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggested that improved monitoring systems may be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality was improved.

Large river water basins play a critical role in the economic, health, and biodiversity conditions of a region. In some basins, such as the Zambezi River Basin, extreme weather events introduce cycles of drought and heavy rainfall that can have extreme impacts on local communities vulnerable to environmental shifts. Annual flood pulse dynamics drive ecological dynamics in the system. In the dry season, water dependent wildlife in northern Botswana concentrates along the Chobe River- Floodplains. Elephant concentration, in particular, is matched to surface water quality declines. These flood pulse events have been linked to diarrheal disease outbreaks in the local population, the magnitude of which is associated positively with flood height. Modeling these interactions can advance our ability to predict events and develop mitigation and prevention actions. However, many challenges hinder this development including availability of data in regions that lack resources and the difficulties in create models for such large basins that account for overland water movement. This thesis presents work focused on addressing these challenges. Chapter 2 reports the development of a freely available Large Basin Data Portal (LBDP) that can be used to identify and create critical inputs for hydrodynamic models. This portal was used to create a hydrological model of the Upper Zambezi River Basin model (Chapter 3), a hydrodynamic model of the one of the three subbasins of the Zambezi River. The model was used to calculate downstream river discharges entering the Chobe-Zambezi Floodplains based on upstream rain events. The Upper Zambezi River Basin model was integrated with another more detailed model of the Chobe- Zambezi Floodplains (Chapter 4) that is designed to model the Chobe River and flood water movement in the floodplains. The models were created using the set of MIKE modeling software. The models were used to study various scenarios including water reductions that might occur due to climate change or drought and water increase that might be associated with extreme weather events. / Doctor of Philosophy / River water plays a key role in the livelihood of people and wildlife especially in region of the world suffering chronic economic challenges. The areas surrounding the Zambezi River in Africa is home to one of the most diverse ecological systems in the world. Extreme weather conditions bring cycles of drought and flooding especially in the Upper Zambezi region where wildlife, including the largest population of African elephants in the world, move closer to the Chobe River, a tributary of the Zambezi River, seeking water in the dry seasons. This research is focused on building a set of tools and models to enable studying the linkage between these events and aid in predicting the extent of the floods in the Chobe River Floodplain system based on rainfall in the Angolan high lands and other landscape features. Understanding how these dynamics are linked and the outcome in the downstream system provides a lead time for potential action.

This thesis investigates the geography in and of Victorian scientific practice by examining the Zambesi Expedition (1858-1864), which was led by the Scottish explorer David Livingstone. A team of assistants accompanied Livingstone: Dr. John Kirk, Dr. Charles Meller, Thomas Baines, Richard Thornton and Charles Livingstone. The official purposes of this expedition, funded by the British Foreign Office, were to catalogue the natural resources of the regions adjacent to the Zambezi River in order to identify new sources of raw materials for British industry and to introduce commercial markets to supplant the slave trade. The scientific results of the Zambesi Expedition have never been catalogued. Only limited attention has been paid to the ways in which science was made in the field and how it returned to Britain In order to address these issues, a survey was made of relevant scientific literature to identify published analyses of the data and specimen collections produced by the Expedition’s staff. Extant specimen collections were located and examined along with archival records and correspondence. The combined manuscript and material evidence reveals that scientific concerns were an important justification for the Expedition. Fieldwork practices are examined in depth and an ideology of technology, expressed in different ways, is shown to have structured the encounters between the British and the locals. The Expedition’s members based their assumed superiority upon technological skill, especially their abilities to understand the environment and to command power—in terms of steam navigation, instrumental authority and the naming of natural productions. Power differentials were apparent in the field when the information possessed by local informants was required for the success of the scientific goals of the expedition. Credibility in the field became a tenuous quality negotiated between local informants, explorers and the metropolitan scientific community. The expedition’s members, as interpreters, were required to navigate the social and physical spaces of the field and the metropolis in order to produce and present credible knowledge. The thesis examines for the first time elements of the reception of the expedition by considering the publication of its scientific results. Critics’ voices are used to uncover those attitudes of the time that judged explorers—and this expedition—according to their prior experiences, social connections and field skills. The work of the Expedition, then, was performed in different spaces and at different scales; operating within and between the field and metropolis and actively linking local practices to global networks. These multivalent practices enabled and circumscribed a British construction of African nature.

The energy-food-water nexus is of fundamental significance in the goal towards sustainable development. The Zambezi River Basin, situated in southern Africa, currently offers vast water resources for social and economic development for the eight riparian countries that constitute the watershed. Hydropower generation and agriculture are the main water users in the watershed with great potential of expansion, plus urban water supply materialise the largest consumers of this resource. Climate and social changes are pressuring natural resources availability which might show severe alterations due to enhances in the variability of precipitation patterns. This study thus examines the present water resources in the transboundary basin and executes low and high case future climate change incited scenarios in order to estimate the possible availability of water for the period 2060-2099 by performing water balances. Along with projections of water accessibility, approximations on water demands from the main consumer sectors are performed. Results show an annual positive balance for both projected scenarios due to an increase in precipitation during the wet season. They also present a severe increase in overall temperature for the region contributing to a strong increase in evapotranspiration. Projections further inform of an acute increase in water demand for irrigation and urban supply, nevertheless, evaporation from hydropower storage reservoirs continues to exceed water with drawals in volume. Acknowledging the uncertainty contained in this report allows a broader offer of recommendations to be considered when planning for future developments with a sustainable approach. Improvement of hydrological collection systems in the Zambezi basin is indispensable to accomplish a deeper and cohesive understanding of the watershed waterresources. Cooperation and knowledge communication between riparian countries seems to be the right beginning towards social and economic sustainable development for the Zambezi River Basin.

Water is recognised as a key driver for social and economic development in the Zambezi basin. The basin is riparian to eight southern African countries and the transboundary nature of the basin’s water resources can be viewed as an agent of cooperation between the basin countries. It is possible, however, that the same water resource can lead to conflicts between water users. The southern African Water Vision for ‘equitable and sustainable utilisation of water for social, environmental justice and economic benefits for the present and future generations’ calls for an integrated and efficient management of water resources within the basin. Ensuring water and food security in the Zambezi basin is, however, faced with challenges due to high variability in climate and the available water resources. Water resources are under continuous threat from pollution, increased population growth, development and urbanisation as well as global climate change. These factors increase the demand for freshwater resources and have resulted in water being one of the major driving forces for development. The basin is also vulnerable due to lack of adequate financial resources and appropriate water resources infrastructure to enable viable, equitable and sustainable distribution of the water resources. This is in addition to the fact that the basin’s economic mainstay and social well-being are largely dependent on rainfed agriculture. There is also competition among the different water users and this has the potential to generate conflicts, which further hinder the development of water resources in the basin. This thesis has focused on the Zambezi River basin emphasising climate variability and climate change. It is now considered common knowledge that the global climate is changing and that many of the impacts will be felt through water resources. If these predictions are correct then the Zambezi basin is most likely to suffer under such impacts since its economic mainstay is largely determined by the availability of rainfall. It is the belief of this study that in order to ascertain the impacts of climate change, there should be a basis against which this change is evaluated. If we do not know the historical patterns of variability it may be difficult to predict changes in the future climate and in the hydrological resources and it will certainly be difficult to develop appropriate management strategies. Reliable quantitative estimates of water availability are a prerequisite for successful water resource plans. However, such initiatives have been hindered by paucity in data especially in a basin where gauging networks are inadequate and some of them have deteriorated. This is further compounded by shortages in resources, both human and financial, to ensure adequate monitoring. To address the data problems, this study largely relied on global data sets and the CRU TS2.1 rainfall grids were used for a large part of this study. The study starts by assessing the historical variability of rainfall and streamflow in the Zambezi basin and the results are used to inform the prediction of change in the future. Various methods of assessing historical trends were employed and regional drought indices were generated and evaluated against the historical rainfall trends. The study clearly demonstrates that the basin has a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and streamflow at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The Standardised Precipitation Index, a rainfall based drought index, is used to assess historical drought events in the basin and it is shown that most of the droughts that have occurred were influenced by climatic and hydrological variability. It is concluded, through the evaluation of agricultural maize yields, that the basin’s food security is mostly constrained by the availability of rainfall. Comparing the viability of using a rainfall based index to a soil moisture based index as an agricultural drought indicator, this study concluded that a soil moisture based index is a better indicator since all of the water balance components are considered in the generation of the index. This index presents the actual amount of water available for the plant unlike purely rainfall based indices, that do not account for other components of the water budget that cause water losses. A number of challenges were, however, faced in assessing the variability and historical drought conditions, mainly due to the fact that most parts of the Zambezi basin are ungauged and available data are sparse, short and not continuous (with missing gaps). Hydrological modelling is frequently used to bridge the data gap and to facilitate the quantification of a basin’s hydrology for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The trend has been to use various methods of regionalisation to transfer information from gauged basins, or from basins with adequate physical basin data, to ungauged basins. All this is done to ensure that water resources are accounted for and that the future can be well planned. A number of approaches leading to the evaluation of the basin’s hydrological response to future climate change scenarios are taken. The Pitman rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed wide use as a water resources estimation tool in southern Africa. The model has been calibrated for the Zambezi basin but it should be acknowledged that any hydrological modelling process is characterised by many uncertainties arising from limitations in input data and inherent model structural uncertainty. The calibration process is thus carried out in a manner that embraces some of the uncertainties. Initial ranges of parameter values (maximum and minimum) that incorporate the possible parameter uncertainties are assigned in relation to physical basin properties. These parameter sets are used as input to the uncertainty version of the model to generate behavioural parameter space which is then further modified through manual calibration. The use of parameter ranges initially guided by the basin physical properties generates streamflows that adequately represent the historically observed amounts. This study concludes that the uncertainty framework and the Pitman model perform quite well in the Zambezi basin. Based on assumptions of an intensifying hydrological cycle, climate changes are frequently expected to result in negative impacts on water resources. However, it is important that basin scale assessments are undertaken so that appropriate future management strategies can be developed. To assess the likely changes in the Zambezi basin, the calibrated Pitman model was forced with downscaled and bias corrected GCM data. Three GCMs were used for this study, namely; ECHAM, GFDL and IPSL. The general observation made in this study is that the near future (2046-2065) conditions of the Zambezi basin are expected to remain within the ranges of historically observed variability. The differences between the predictions for the three GCMs are an indication of the uncertainties in the future and it has not been possible to make any firm conclusions about directions of change. It is therefore recommended that future water resources management strategies account for historical patterns of variability, but also for increased uncertainty. Any management strategies that are able to satisfactorily deal with the large variability that is evident from the historical data should be robust enough to account for the near future patterns of water availability predicted by this study. However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggest that improved monitoring systems are required to provide additional data against which future model outputs can be assessed.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Zambezi River is the largest east-draining river in Africa. It captures runoff from 8 different countries before draining into the Indian Ocean in Mozambique through the Zambezi Delta which is recognised as a (Ramsar) Wetland of international importance. The Zambezi River flows are currently regulated by four large hydropower dams within its catchment. Much attention has been given in recent literature to the detrimental effects of the altered flow regime as a result of dams on the Zambezi River and the Delta in particular. Existing research relating to these negative effects includes many detailed ecological, hydrological and qualitative morphological studies but to date no detailed morphological modelling studies have been conducted in this regard. In this thesis a two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and morphological numerical model of the Zambezi Delta is created using topographical information obtained from a navigational study (Rio Tinto, 2011). The model hydrodynamics are calibrated using recorded water levels and flows at two gauging stations within the model domain. The bed load sediment transport is calibrated using field measurements (ASP, 2012b). The effects of dams on the Zambezi Delta are investigated by performing two 10 year simulations, one representing the current (post-dam) scenario and the other representing a pre-dam scenario. These simulation results show a significant decrease in flooded areas and sediment movement on the floodplains as a result of dams. Additional effects on channel widths and depth, on bed gradings, and on tidal water level variations are analysed. The model is then used to simulate a proposed environmental flood release scenario. Such releases have been recommended as a means to partially mitigate the negative impacts of dams on the Zambezi River. In this case an annual flood release supplying a peak flow of 8500 m3/s (slightly less than the pre-dam mean annual flood of 10 000 m3/s) was found to cause slightly more flooding of the close floodplains and to have small effects on the river channel width. The model predicts hydrodynamics and bed sediment transport of non-cohesive sediments with suitable accuracy but an issue with the suspended transport of cohesive sediments was identified. Recommendations are made for addressing the suspended sediment transport inaccuracy. The model, in its current form, can provide quantitative information regarding the hydrodynamics and course sediment transport of the general delta region on a coarse scale. With additional computational resources and accurate topographical information the model can be refined to give accurate predictions for localised areas within the delta. Such information would be valuable to specialist studies addressing the environmental effects of various proposed flooding scenarios or future dams. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Zambezirivier is die grootste oos-dreineerende rivier in Afrika. Dit ontvang afloop van ag verskillende lande voor dit in die Indiese Oseaan in Mozambiek uitmond. Die Zambezidelta work erken as 'n RAMSAR vleiland van internasionale belang. Die vloei in die rivier word tans gereguleer deur vier groot hidro-elektriese damme binne sy opvangsgebied. Baie aandag is in die onlangse literatuur gegee aan die nadelige gevolge van die veranderde vloei as gevolg van damme op die Zambezi Rivier en spesifiek op die Delta. Bestaande navorsing met betrekking tot hierdie negatiewe effekte sluit in detail ekologiese, hidrologiese en kwalitatiewe morfologiese studies, maar tot op datum is geen gedetailleerde morfologiese modelleringstudies gedoen nie. In hierdie tesis is 'n twee-dimensionele gekoppelde hidrodinamiese en morfologiese numeriese model van die Zambezi Delta geskep met behulp van topografiese inligting wat verkry is uit 'n navigasiestudie (Rio Tinto, 2011). Die model hidrodinamika is gekalibreer deur teen watervlakke en vloei by twee meetstasies in die model domein. Die bedvrag sedimentvervoer is gekalibreer met behulp van veldmetings (ASP, 2012b). Die ȉnvloed van die damme op die Zambezi Delta is ondersoek deur twee 10-jarige simulasies, een wat die huidige ( na-dam ) scenario en die ander wat 'n voor-dam scenario ondersoek. Hierdie simulasie resultate toon 'n beduidende afname in die oorstroomde gebiede en sedimentbeweging op die vloedvlaktes as gevolg van damme. Bykomende effekte op kanaalbreedtes en -diepte, op die bedgraderings , en op getywatervlak variasies is ontleed. Die model is vervolgens gebruik om 'n voorgestelde omgewingings vloedloslaating te ondersoek. Sodanige loslaatings is aanbeveel om die negatiewe impak van damme op die rivier gedeeltelik te verminder. In hierdie geval gee 'n jaarlikse vloedloslaating met 'n piekvloei van 8500 m3/s (effens minder as die voor-dam gemiddelde jaarlikse vloed van 10 000 m3/s) effens meer oorstromings van die vloedvlaktes en het 'n klein uitwerking op die rivierkanaalbreedte. Die model voorspel die hidrodinamika en bedsedimentvervoer van nie-kohesiewe sedimente met betroubaarheid, maar 'n probleem met die vervoer van kohesiewe sedimente is geïdentifiseer. Aanbevelings word gemaak vir die aanspreek van die kohesiewe sedimentvervoer onakkuraatheid. Die model, in sy huidige vorm, kan kwantitatiewe inligting oor die hidrodinamika en natuurlik sedimentvervoer van die algemene delta streek by benadering verskaf. Met bykomende rekenaar hulpbronne en akkurate topografiese inligting kan die model verfyn word om akkurate voorspellings vir plaaslike gebiede binne die delta te gee. Sulke inligting kan waardevol wees vir spesialis-studies van die omgewingsimpakte van verskillende voorgestelde vloedloslaatings of toekomstige damme.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / This study sought to identify and fit the appropriate extreme value distribution to flood data, using the method of maximum likelihood. To examine the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and evaluate the goodness of fit of the model identified. The study revealed that the three parameter Weibull and the generalised extreme value (GEV) distributions fit the data very well. Standard errors for the estimated parameters were calculated from the empirical information matrix. An upper limit to the flood levels followed from the fitted distribution.

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)