abstract: Shallow earthquakes in the upper part of the overriding plate of subduction zones can be devastating due to their proximity to population centers despite the smaller rupture extents than commonly occur on subduction megathrusts that produce the largest earthquakes. Damaging effects can be greater in volcanic arcs like Java because ground shaking is amplified by surficial deposits of uncompacted volcaniclastic sediments. Identifying the upper-plate structures and their potential hazards is key for minimizing the dangers they pose. In particular, the knowledge of the regional stress field and deformation pattern in this region will help us to better understand how subduction and collision affects deformation in this part of the overriding plate. The majority of the upper plate deformation studies have been focused on the deformation in the main thrusts of the fore-arc region. Study of deformation within volcanic arc is limited despite the associated earthquake hazards. In this study, I use maps of active upper-plate structures, earthquake moment tensor data and stress orientation deduced from volcano morphology analysis to characterize the strain field of Java arc. In addition, I use sandbox analog modeling to evaluate the mechanical factors that may be important in controlling deformation. My field- and remotely-based mapping of active faults and folds, supplemented by results from my paleoseismic studies and physical models of the system, suggest that Java’s deformation is distributed over broad areas along small-scale structures. Java is segmented into three main zones based on their distinctive structural patterns and stress orientation. East Java is characterized by NW-SE normal and strike-slip faults, Central Java has E-W folds and thrust faults, and NE-SW strike-slip faults dominate West Java. The sandbox analog models indicate that the strain in response to collision is partitioned into thrusting and strike-slip faulting, with the dominance of margin-normal thrust faulting. My models test the effects of convergence obliquity, geometry, preexisting weaknesses, asperities, and lateral strength contrast. The result suggest that slight variations in convergence obliquity do not affect the deformation pattern significantly, while the margin shape, lateral strength contrast, and perturbation of deformation from asperities each have a greater impact on deformation. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geological Sciences 2016

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23176号 / 工博第4820号 / 新制||工||1753(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 林 為人, 教授 福山 英一, 准教授 村田 澄彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

東部インドネシアには，太平洋プレートとオーストラリアプレートの相対運動に起因する大規模な左横ずれ断層帯が発達する．この断層帯の地震地質学的な情報は限られており，地震災害軽減の大きな障壁となっていた．本研究では，スラウェシ島やバンダ弧の島々において，変動地形調査・古地震調査・物理探査を行った．各調査地域で詳細な活断層分布図を作成し，断層の変位速度や平均活動間隔，最近の大地震の時期を明らかにした．その結果，将来起こりうる地震の規模が推定され，また近い将来に地震が発生する可能性の高い地域が見いだされた． / In eastern Indonesia, the relative motion between the Pacific and Australian plates is accommodated by a large left-lateral strike-slip fault system. The lack of geologic information on the fault system has been a significant barrier to understanding the seismic hazard posed by this fault system. This study integrates tectonic geomorphic, paleoseismic, and shallow geophysics investigations to uncover the faulting and seismic behavior of the fault system, focusing on central Sulawesi and the northern Banda Arc. This study provides detailed active fault map of each investigated area and clarifies slip rates, average recurrence interval, and timing of the recent large earthquakes. This study also estimates the seismic potential of the active faults and highlights the areas with a high possibility of hosting large earthquakes in the future. / 博士(理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

Cette thèse porte sur la tectonique active et l’analyse de deux nouvelles failles : la faille de Sharkhai et la faille d’Avdar. Les deux failles ont été découvertes, en 2011, à partir des images satellitaires HR, à quelques dizaines de kilomètres de la capitale de la Mongolie, Oulan Bator. Une approche morpho-tectonique, géomorphologique et paléosismologique, à partir des images de haute résolution Pléiades et d’études de terrain, notamment de tranchées, a permis: 1) de cartographier les deux failles en détail; 2) de décrire leur géométrie et segmentation; 3) de contraindre leur cinématique; 4) de documenter leur activité récente et leur comportement sismique (décalages co-sismiques et cumulés, période de retour, taux de glissement). La faille de Sharkhai s’étend sur 46 km selon une direction comprise entre N42°E et N72°E en moyenne, avec un pendage de 66° à 72° vers le sud-est entre E106.31°/N47.352° et E106.53°/N47.485°, et sub-vertical entre E106.474°/N47.473° et E106.75°/N47.57°. Elle est caractérisée par une géométrie rectiligne et simple en surface. C’est une faille senestre avec une composante verticale normale. L’étude paléosismique met en évidence trois séismes : le séisme EQ3 s’est produit avant 3850±120 calBP, le séisme EQ2 entre 2400±70 calBP et 2030±40 calBP, et le séisme le plus récent (MRE) entre 1090±84 calBP et avant l’âge du sol récent. La période de retour minimum des forts séismes sur la faille de Sharkhai est 1195±157 ans, ce qui implique une vitesse de glissement maximum comprise entre 0.6±0.2 et 2.14±0.5 mm/an. Plusieurs scénarios de segmentation de la faille sont proposés indiquant que la faille est capable de produire des séismes de magnitude comprise entre 6 et 7. L’accélération maximale du sol (PGA au rocher) générée à Oulan Bator serait de 0.12 g, au nouvel aéroport de 0.28 g, et à la ville de Zuunmod de 0.17 g. Ces valeurs correspondent à une intensité (MMI) comprise entre VI et X. La faille d’Avdar s’étend sur 47 km selon une direction moyenne comprise entre N26°E et N88°E avec un pendage variant de 40° à 55°. La partie sud-ouest de la faille est caractérisé par une géométrie simple et linéaire. Par contre, l’architecture de la faille est complexe dans la partie nord-est. Les décalages mesurés indiquent que la faille est une faille senestre avec une composante normale. Les tranchées paléosismiques documentent son activité sismique pendant le quaternaire. La faille peut se diviser en plusieurs segments, suggérant des séismes de magnitude comprise entre 5.8 et 7. Les valeurs de PGA (au rocher) les plus importants seraient de 0.1 g pour Oulan Bator, 0.18 g pour le nouvel aéroport et 0.19 g pour la ville de Zuunmod. Ces valeurs indiquent une intensité de l’ordre de VI à X. Les investigations paléosismiques montrent que le dernier séisme est plus récent que 5665±85 calBP. Tous ces résultats doivent être pris en compte dans l’estimation de l’aléa sismique de la région de la capitale Oulan Bator, qui a elle seule comprend plus de la moitié de la population du pays. Située sur un bassin sédimentaire, elle est le centre commercial et industriel du pays et contient divers bâtiments vulnérables. Enfin, elle est en pleine croissance avec un nouvel aéroport en construction à proximité de la faille de Sharkhai, secteur où la ville va très rapidement s’étendre. / This thesis focuses on the active tectonic of two new faults: the Sharkhai fault and the Avdar faults. Both faults were discovered in 2011 from HR satellite images at tens kilometers from the capital of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar.Morpho-tectonic, geomorphological and paleoseismological approaches using high resolution Pleiades satellites images and field investigations allowed: 1) to map the both faults in details; 2) to describe their geometry and segmentation; 3) to identify their kinematic; 4) to document their recent activity and their seismic behavior (co-seismic and cumulated displacements, the time of the last earthquakes, slip rate). The Sharkhai fault extends 46 km with an average direction between N42°E and N72°E, and a dip between 72° and 66° either to south-east, between E106.31°/N47.352° and E106.53°/N47.485°, or sub-vertical between E106.474°/N47.473° and E106.75°/N47.57°. The fault is characterized by a linear and simple geometry. It is a left lateral strike slip with a normal vertical component. The paleoseismological investigations show evidences for three earthquakes: the EQ3 earthquake occurred before 3850±120 calBP, the EQ2 earthquake between 2400±70 calBP and 2030±40 calBP, and the most recent earthquake (MRE) between 1090±84 calBP and before the age of recent soil. The minimum return period of strong earthquakes on the fault Sharkhai is 1195 ± 157 years, which implies a maximum slip rate between 0.6±0.2 and 2.14±0.5 mm/year. Several segmentation scenarios of the fault where proposed indicating that the fault is capable to produce an earthquake of magnitude between 6 and 7. The maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA at rock) generated at Ulaanbaatar is 0.12 g, 0.28 g at the new airport, and 0.17 g at the city of Zuunmod. These values correspond to intensity between VI and X at rock sites. The Avdar fault, 47 km length, have an average orientation between N26°E and N88°E and a dip between 40° and 55°. The southwestern part of the fault is characterized by a simple and linear geometry while the architecture of the surface rupture is complex in the northeastern part. The measured offsets indicate that the fault is left lateral with a normal component. The paleoseismic trenches attest its seismic activity during the Quaternary. The fault can be divided into several segments suggesting earthquakes of a magnitude ranging from 5.8 to 7. The most important values of PGA (at rock site) would be 0.1 g at Ulaanbaatar, 0.18 g for the new airport and 0.19 g for Zuunmod city. These values indicate an intensity between VI and X. Paleoseismic trench shows that the last earthquake occurred on the fault since 5665± 85calBP. All these results should be considered in estimating the seismic hazard in the region of the capital Ulaanbaatar especially as, alone, it contains more than the half of the country population. Situated in a sedimentary basin, it is the commercial and industrial center of Mongolia and contains many vulnerable buildings. Also, the city is growing with a new airport construction near the fault Sharkhai area where the city will extend very quickly.

This dissertation focuses on the active tectonics of Afghanistan|slip-rate estimation of the Chaman fault and assessing seismic hazard in the Kabul basin. Afghanistan is a tectonically complex zone developed as a result of the collision between the Eurasian plate and the Indian plate to the southeast and the Arabian plate to the south. For seismic hazard mitigation, there is no large-scale active fault map in Afghanistan. I, therefore, mapped active and presumed active faults mainly based on interpretation of 1-arcsecond SRTM anaglyph images, and calculate the slip rate of the Chaman fautl based on 10Be TCN dating. / 博士(理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University