This report concludes the first four years (1992 -1995) of Southern Paiute involvement in the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES), a program initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) in 1982. Southern Paiutes have conducted ethnographic research and participated in the Congressionally mandated Environmental Impact Study (EIS) of Glen Canyon Dam water release policies on natural and human-made resources found in the Colorado River Corridor. These ethnographic studies have taken place in what is called the Colorado River Corridor which extends 255 miles down stream from Glen Canyon Dam to the end of the free flowing river at Separation Canyon within the Grand Canyon National Park. They have concentrated on investigating the impacts of the Dam's water releases to Southern Paiute cultural resources. Since the Final EIS was published in March 1995, emphasis has been placed on what is called the Adaptive Management Program of the GCES and attention has shifted to monitoring the water release impacts.

Die vorliegende Untersuchung umfasst eine konzeptionelle Analyse von klimawandelbedingten Stressen sowie eine systematische Überprüfung der Managementpläne von Schutzgebieten auf dem amerikanischen Kontinent, mit besonderem Augenmerk auf dem Department Santa Cruz in Bolivien. Die Wirkungen von sich klimawandelbedingt ändernden Mustern der Temperatur und des Wetters, z.B. häufigeren und intensiveren Extremwetterereignissen, sind neuartige Herausforderungen für die natürlichen Ökosysteme der Erde. Es ist deshalb von entscheidender Bedeutung, den Klimawandel bei Planung und Management im Naturschutz zu berücksichtigen und so seine Vulnerabilität gegenüber dem Klimawandel zu thematisieren und mithin zu reduzieren. Die Anerkennung des Klimawandels als Bedrohung für Schutzgebiete stellt in Lateinamerika einen beträchtlichen Paradigmenwechsel für die strategische Planungs- und Managementpraxis dar. Um einen solchen Fortschritt zu befördern, versuchen wir im ersten Schritt das aktuelle Schutzgebietsmanagement zu erfassen und seine Fähigkeit einzuschätzen, auf das Klimawandel-Problem einzugehen. Diese Einschätzung erfolgte auf Grundlage von Analysen einer schriftliche Umfrage bei Schutzgebietsmanagern zu Beobachtungen über Reaktionen von Biodiversität auf den Klimawandel. Um mit relativ schnellem und mit Unsicherheit behaftetem Umweltwandel umgehen zu können, bedarf es der Verbesserung der Anpassungsfähigkeit sowohl der Biodiversität als auch der Naturschutz-Systeme. Unter der Hypothese, dass die meisten ‚konventionellen’ Instrumente des Naturschutzes ein dynamisches Schutzgebietsmanagement, das schnellen Umweltwandel ausreichend berücksichtigt, nicht ausreichend befördern, werteten wir fast 900 gebietsspezifische Conservation Action Plans (CAPs) des Naturschutzverbandes The Nature Conservancy (TNC) aus. Dann wählten wir 103 CAPs aus, die vor einer intensiven Überprüfung existierender Pläne und einem Klimawandel-Training der Planungsteams („climate change clinic“), die TNC 2009 vornahm, erstellt worden waren. Wir verglichen die Ergebnisse mit 22 Plänen aus der Zeit nach der climate change clinic. Vor 2009 gebrauchten 20% der CAPs den Begriff „Klimawandel“ in der Beschreibung der Viabilität des Gebiets, und 45% identifizierten ökologische Schlüsselattribute, die mit Klimawandel in Beziehung stehen. Acht Prozent der Schutzstrategien bezogen sich direkt oder indirekt auf die Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Nach 2009 zog ein signifikant höherer Prozentsatz der Pläne den Klimawandel in Betracht. Unsere Daten zeigen auf, dass viele Planungsteams Schwierigkeiten haben, den Klimawandel in Management und Planung zu berücksichtigen. Eine allgemeine fachliche Anleitung und konkretes Training können jedoch Lernprozesse von Managementteams befördern. Daher entwickelten und erprobten wir eine erweiterte Version der Conservation Action Planning-Methode als zusätzliche Planungsmethode. Dieses erweiterte CAP legt einen Schwerpunkt auf die Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels in allen Planungsschritten. Wir erprobten das erweiterte CAP in einer Fallstudie im Schutzgebiet mit integrierter Nutzung („Area de Manejo Integrado“) Río Grande Valles Cruceños im Department Santa Cruz. Im Zuge dieser Pilotanwendung wählten die Teilnehmer als Schutzobjekte insgesamt acht Arten und Biozönosen aus, die zusammen die Biodiversität des Gebiets repräsentieren. Das Schutzobjekt ‚Wasser’, aufgrund von Qualitätsmerkmalen von ökologischen Prozessen und mit ihnen verbundenen Funktionen ausgewählt, erwies sich als Herausforderung bei der Anwendung. Dem Klimawandel wurde in jedem einzelnen Planungsschritt besondere Beachtung geschenkt. Im Ergebnis wurden die aktuelle Viabilität des Schutzgebiets als „Gut“ und die zukünftige Viabilität unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels als „Mäßig“ eingeschätzt. Anhand der Antworten von Schutzgebietsmanagern auf einem Fragebogen zu Klimawandel und Schutzgebietsmanagement in Santa Cruz, Bolivien, bewerteten wir die Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels im Schutzgebietsmanagement und der Vulnerabilität der betreffenden Gebiete im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit, sich an den Klimawandel anzupassen. Achtundachtzig Prozent der Gebiete füllten den Fragebogen aus, das sind insgesamt 32 (nationale, departmentale und munizipale) Schutzgebiete im ganzen Department. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass alle Gebiete einige Wirkungen des Klimawandels wahrgenommen haben und, bei unterschiedlichem Stand des Wissens und der Umsetzung, auf der Suche sind nach Mitteln und Wegen, wie sie ihr Management entsprechend anpassen können. Sie legten dar, dass sie sei einigen Jahren in hohem Maße Extremwettereignissen und häufigeren und intensiveren Überschwemmungen, Dürren und Waldbränden ausgesetzt sind, insbesondere in der Amazonasregion. Weniger als die Hälfte der Gebiete verfügten über einen Managementplan; keines besaß Kenntnis vom Ansatz der ökosystembasierten Anpassung. Stattdessen benutzten sie andere Arten adaptiven Managements; 11% der Gebiete praktizierten Risikomanagement; 46 % arbeiteten mit benachbarten privaten Grundeigentümern zusammen, und 86% sind der Auffassung, dass die Naturschutz-Arbeit heute schwieriger ist als noch vor 20 Jahren. Nationale Schutzgebiete waren, einem Index der Klimawandel-Vulnerabilität zufolge, am wenigsten vulnerabel, gefolgt von departmentalen Schutzgebieten. Munizipale Schutzgebiete wiesen gemäß verschiedenen Analysen die höchsten Vulnerabilitätswerte auf. Mit dieser Studie haben wir gezeigt, dass Naturschutzplanung unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels zwar nicht einfach, aber durchaus möglich ist. Indem wir diese Herausforderung herausarbeiten, hoffen wir, zu einem proaktiveren Blick auf die Erhaltung der Biodiversität, der systematischer, umfassender dokumentiert und auf den Klimawandel ausgerichtet ist, anzuregen. Dieser neue Ansatz fordert zu pragmatischen wie auch strategischen Handlungen heraus, die dazu angelegt sind, mit dem Klimawandel zurechtzukommen und sich an ihn anzupassen. Neue Instrumente für adaptives Naturschutzmanagement, die explizit Möglichkeiten zum Umgang mit Zukunftsszenarien, Vulnerabilitätsanalysen und Risikomanagement integrieren, können das Schutzgebietsmanagement angesichts des Klimawandels proaktiver und robuster machen.

Managing natural resources and socio-ecological systems sustainably is one of the greatest challenges for society today. In order to deal with the complexities and uncertainties inherent to this challenge, adaptive management, collaborative (participatory) management and adaptive co-management have been advocated as governing tools instead of a traditional top-down approach. Much research has advocated that the crucial element of these three alternative management approaches is social learning. While a lot of research has investigated the preconditions, contents and outcomes of social learning, little is known about the processes of social learning. This thesis explores how social learning processes unfolded in a regional collaborative project, the Resolve project, carried out in Sweden. The methodological approach used is action research. The data was collected mainly by observing the project team’s internal workshops and also through observing interviews and official workshops in which diverse local stakeholders participated. The present study makes several noteworthy contributions to existing knowledge about social learning by providing detailed descriptions of social learning processes. The significant findings of thesis were that social learning was facilitated and encouraged through the opportunity to ask critical questions and to engage in collective decision-making. These findings enhance our understanding of social learning processes.

Abstract The world is losing its biodiversity at an alarming rate and many agencies are committing to considerable investment in global conservation. Given the enormity of environmental issues, the funding available to managers is insufficient. Managers must make decisions about how to act within the bounds of this limited funding. Conservation decision-making is also limited by a lack of knowledge about the systems we are trying to conserve. Much of the information required for effective conservation is uncertain. In this thesis I focus on practical ways of approaching the immense predicament of how to make good conservation decisions in the face of these two limitations. In chapter two I provide both an optimal framework and analytic rule of thumb for allocating limited funding among subpopulations of a threatened species. My results show that the number of subpopulations we can effectively manage is driven by the economic constraints placed on management and the risk of extinction of the species we are trying to protect. We discover that it is rarely optimal to manage all the remaining isolated subpopulations of a threatened species. This highlights the importance of a triage approach to the management of subpopulations of a threatened species under the current climate of limited funding, leading us to coin the term ‘subpopulation triage’. One key area of uncertainty that links directly with how we allocate resources for conservation is uncertainty in the impact of our management actions on the systems we are trying to protect (the impact-investment curve). This relationship often drives the outcomes of our decision-making frameworks. In chapter three I investigate how uncertainty in the impact-investment curve, assumed in chapter two, alters our optimal management decision. Again, I find that limited conservation finances are a major limiting factor in the robustness of a strategy to our incomplete understanding. I discover that ‘subpopulation triage’ can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. Uncertainty is not, however, always beyond our control. We can reduce it by diverting funding from management to collect data on our systems. This entails monitoring costs that must also be considered when making optimal conservation decisions. There are a number of reasons why we could monitor; to reduce our uncertainty in the status of threatened species where management is driven by species status; to aid learning about a component of the system we are managing; for both initial surveillance and adaptive approaches; and to report on the performances of conservation action to stakeholders. In chapter four I assess the benefit of initial surveillance to gain information on biodiversity value before we acquire a land parcel for the reserve network. The risk here is that the land parcel may be removed from the market during surveying. I describe both an optimal method, using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), and a simple rule of thumb, for how to make such decisions. The solutions to this problem illustrate how optimal conservation is necessarily dynamic and that immediate implementation of a conservation plan may not always yield the best conservation outcome. Learning does not always need to take place in the absence of management. In chapter five I investigate adaptive learning for a threatened species where we must discriminate between multiple hypotheses of how the system works by implementing different management actions. We find that the optimal action depends on our belief in each model being the true model of our system, the benefit from each action under each model, and the number of sites available to implement an active adaptive strategy. In chapter six I investigate when one should learn about the state of the system through monitoring when management is state-dependent. Here our management of subpopulations of a threatened species is based on whether these subpopulations persist. I ask when should we survey or manage a subpopulation, and when, if ever, should we do nothing in a subpopulation of a threatened species. I find that management actions should not only be driven by the return on investment gained by managing a subpopulation but also by our certainty of the persistence of a subpopulation. This is the first work to show a direct trade-off between return on investment from conservation action and reduced uncertainty. One key evaluation method currently adopted worldwide is the use of ‘State of the Environment’ reporting. In chapter seven I assess the flaws of ‘State of the Environment’ reporting, the current method adopted worldwide for evaluating conservation policy. I show the positive biases inherent in such reporting and provide a new metric for reporting on conservation performance that is simple, transparent and provides an unbiased report on performance in reaching conservation objectives. I show that without honest reporting of conservation gains – and losses – we limit our ability to assess where we are in terms of conservation progress. Overall my thesis shows the need for managers to consider a triage approach to threatened species management, not as a process of giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements and the realities of financial and knowledge limitations. Indeed if conservation is a field dedicated to the protection of biodiversity then those responsible for decision-making––politicians, scientists and environmental managers––must use whatever approach gives the best outcome for the environment. Under current limitations, triage is often a necessity not an option.

The work presented in this thesis falls naturally into two parts. The first part (Chapter 2), is concerned with the benefit of perturbing a population into an immediately undesirable state, in order to improve estimates of a static probability which may improve long-term management. We consider finding the optimal harvest policy for a theoretical harvested population when a key parameter is unknown. We employ an adaptive management framework to study when it is worth sacrificing short term rewards in order to increase long term profits. / Active adaptive management has been increasingly advocated in natural resource management and conservation biology as a methodology for resolving key uncertainties about population dynamics and responses to management. However, when comparing management policies it is traditional to weigh future rewards geometrically (at a constant discount rate) which results in far-distant rewards making a negligible contribution to the total benefit. Under such a discounting scheme active adaptive management is rarely of much benefit, especially if learning is slow. In Chapter 2, we consider two proposed alternative forms of discounting for evaluating optimal policies for long term decisions which have a social component. / We demonstrate that discount functions which weigh future rewards more heavily result in more conservative harvesting strategies, but do not necessarily encourage active learning. Furthermore, the optimal management strategy is not equivalent to employing geometric discounting at a lower rate. If alternative discount functions are made mandatory in calculating optimal management policies for environmental management, then this will affect the structure of optimal management regimes and change when and how much we are willing to invest in learning. / The second part of this thesis is concerned with how to account for partial observability when calculating optimal management policies. We consider the problem of controlling an invasive pest species when only partial observations are available at each time step. In the model considered, the monitoring data available are binomial observations of a probability which is an index of the population size. We are again concerned with estimating a probability, however, in this model the probability is changing over time. / Before including partial observability explicitly, we consider a model in which perfect observations of the population are available at each time step (Chapter 3). It is intuitive that monitoring will be beneficial only if the management decision depends on the outcome. Hence, a necessary condition for monitoring to be worthwhile is that control polices which are specified in terms of the system state, out-perform simpler time-based control policies. Consequently, in addition to providing a benchmark against which we can compare the optimal management policy in the case of partial observations, analysing the perfect observation case also provides insight into when monitoring is likely to be most valuable. / In Chapters 4 and 5 we include partial observability by modelling the control problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We outline several tests which stem from a property of conservation of expected utility under monitoring, which aid in validating the model. We discuss the optimal management policy prescribed by the POMDP for a range of model scenarios, and use simulation to compare the POMDP management policy to several alternative policies, including controlling with perfect observations and no observations. / In Chapter 6 we propose an alternative model, developed in the spirit of a POMDP, that does not strictly satisfy the definition of a POMDP. We find that although the second model has some conceptually appealing attributes, it makes an undesirable implicit assumption about the underlying population dynamics.

Habitat destruction and degradation are the most important threatening processes for the majority of species of conservation concern. As landscapes become more fragmented their spatial structure becomes increasingly important for the viability of wildlife populations. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of how populations interact with landscape structure is crucial for developing effective wildlife management and monitoring strategies. To achieve robust management, such an understanding should be incorporated into decision theory approaches for the design of management and monitoring strategies. Monitoring is a crucial component for assessing the outcome of management, because this can then be used to inform future management actions in an adaptive management framework. However, for many species, their spatial population dynamics are not well understood and objective management frameworks not well developed. In this thesis I use modelling approaches to develop the components of an adaptive management framework for species of conservation concern that occur in fragmented landscapes. I use the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as a study organism and specifically address three key components that are important for adaptive management. These components are: (1) the development of novel approaches for modelling and understanding spatial population processes, (2) the application of modelling approaches to develop general principles and methods for managing wildlife populations in fragmented landscapes and (3) the application of modelling approaches to identify the best spatio-temporal sampling strategies for monitoring population trends in fragmented landscapes. This research advances our understanding of the dynamics of wildlife populations in fragmented landscapes, but importantly also develops tools and general principles for the adaptive management of these populations. To improve our understanding of the dynamics of populations in fragmented landscapes I develop several novel modelling approaches. Firstly, I develop an approach for disassociating the effect of natural habitat and anthropogenic influences on population distributions using static occupancy models. This approach allows inferences to be made about how important the distribution of habitat is compared to other human-related factors. Secondly, I develop modelling approaches for understanding habitat selection and dispersal processes. In particular, I address common problems for modelling complex habitat selection processes and parameterising dispersal simulation models. The habitat selection models are novel because they account for habitat preferences that depend upon the spatial location of habitat. The novel emphasis for the dispersal models, is showing that pattern-oriented approaches are useful for parameterising dispersal simulation models, even when we have little data. These models make an important contribution to our understanding of and methods for understanding spatial population processes. These and other modelling approaches are then applied to some key management questions, in order to develop general principles and methods for wildlife management decision-making. These studies relate to identifying the best spatial allocation of different management strategies, the planning of road networks to minimise impacts on wildlife and the impact of different mortality rates on the ranking of habitat protection strategies. First, I show that the relative spatial distribution of habitat and anthropogenic influences has important implications for the spatial allocation of management strategies. Second, I show that increasing traffic volume on existing roads is generally preferential to building new roads in terms of minimising the impact on wildlife mortality. Third, I use a multi-criteria decision analysis to show that the spatial arrangement of protected habitat is much less important for populations subject to high mortality rates than those subject to low mortality rates. Finally, spatially-explicit modelling approaches are applied to questions related to how sampling effort should best be allocated spatially and spatio-temporally to monitor population trends. These studies reveal that the best sampling strategy depends predictably upon the monitoring objectives and the dynamics of the species. Using the principles developed, improved monitoring strategies and ultimately improved management strategies will be possible. This thesis makes an important contribution to the development of adaptive management strategies for wildlife populations in fragmented landscapes. To implement an adaptive management approach, the modelling, management and monitoring components must be explicitly linked. By developing each of these components, this thesis provides a strong basis from which an adaptive management framework can be constructed. How this may be achieved and key areas for future research are discussed.

Thesis (M.S.)--Humboldt State University, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-35). Also available via Humboldt Digital Scholar.

This thesis explores landscape change in one of Africa’s biggest parks from the perspectives of its managers, the international conservation community, and media in South Africa and the United States. The surprising history of Kruger's elephant population reflects the complicated relationship between shifting wildlife management approaches, environmental ethics, and understandings of African nature, which continue to influence future conservation priorities. Elephants, because of their capacity to drive ecosystem change, expose a history of conflict over what nature means in the Kruger Park and how it should be managed. Current management philosophies in the park reflect the need to prepare for an uncertain future but also to confront an unsettled inheritance of the past. I delve into the 20th century chronicles of science, landscape aesthetics, wilderness ethics, and international politics that inform conservation in Kruger today.

The Swedish government has set up 16 environmental goals for Sweden to achieve. One of them is “Living forests”, which is the foundation for the “National strategy for the formal protection of forests”. The “National strategy” puts the private forest owner at the centre of attention in order to achieve the environmental goal “Living forests”. Adaptive Management could help with the implementation of the “National strategy”. 9 qualitative interviews have been done in order to examine how the communication between private forest owners and responsible authorities works. The interviews give the private forest owners’ perspective, and what they want the communication to be like, when it comes to conservation biology. Communication, language, and how to deal with conservation biology have been the main issues brought up during the interviews. The private forest owners also demand more flexibility and a keener ear from responsible authorities. The private forest owners would like a better knowledge of what is happening when it comes to conservation biology on their land. The private forest owners and the responsible authorities do have similar goals for what they want to achieve with the forest, but they disagree on how to achieve that goal.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / A gestÃo integrada dos recursos hÃdricos e a governanÃa adaptativa sÃo paradigmas institucionais e de gestÃo criados para solucionar as deficiÃncias do gerenciamento de recursos hÃdricos. Na gestÃo integrada, o desafio apresenta-se no estabelecimento de arranjos institucionais e instrumentos apropriados; na governanÃa adaptativa, o desafio se configura no gerenciamento sob condiÃÃes de incerteza. Recentemente, tem-se observado uma tendÃncia de fusÃo desses dois paradigmas para enfrentar a crescente complexidade dos fatores que moldam e estressam o gerenciamento dos recursos hÃdricos, sendo a mudanÃa climÃtica um desses fatores. No SemiÃrido Brasileiro, as incertezas associadas a mudanÃas no clima se somam Ãs variabilidades naturais tÃpicas da regiÃo, amplificando a complexidade da gestÃo dos seus sistemas hÃdricos, o que torna relevante a incorporaÃÃo desses conceitos. Sob essa perspectiva, o presente trabalho interpreta o sistema de gerenciamento de recursos hÃdricos do Estado do Cearà sob o ponto de vista da resiliÃncia ecolÃgica e propÃe um modelo de governanÃa adaptativa dos recursos hÃdricos, sob cenÃrios de mudanÃa climÃtica. Como estudo de caso, analisou-se o Sistema Jaguaribe-Metropolitanas, o qual evidenciou que a interligaÃÃo por meio do EixÃo das Ãguas e do Canal do Trabalhador, proporcionam uma alta conectividade do sistema, e um baixo potencial de mudanÃas do mesmo. Dessa forma, o sistema passa a ser muito dependente de uma Ãnica fonte hÃdrica - o CastanhÃo - o que o torna vulnerÃvel a qualquer falha que nele ocorra. De modo geral,verificou-se, ainda, que as possÃveis mudanÃas climÃticas trarÃo uma diminuiÃÃo da resiliÃncia do sistema, uma vez que se constatou maior necessidade de importaÃÃo de Ãgua da Bacia do Rio Jaguaribe para a RegiÃo Metropolitana de Fortaleza, quando comparados os cenÃrios de emissÃes (20C3M e A1B) do Painel Intergovernamental de MudanÃas ClimÃticas. Sugere-se, dessa forma, o gerenciamento da resiliÃncia por meio da governanÃa adaptativa. / The intergrated management of water resources and the adaptive government are institutional and management paradigms created to solve the deficiencies of the water resources management. On the integrated management, the challenge present itself on the establishment of institutional arrangements and appropriate instruments. On the adaptive governance, the challenge is configured to manage under conditions of uncertainty. Recently, itÂs been observed a tendency of fusion between these two paradigms to face the increasing complexity of factors that shape and stress the water resources management, the climate change being one of these factors. In the Brazilian semiarid, the uncertainties associated with climate change are added to natural variability typical of the region, amplifying the complexity of the management of its water systems, which makes relevant the incorporation of these concepts. From this perspective, this study interprets the management system of water resources of the State of CearÃ, under the point of view of ecological resilience and proposed a model of adaptive governance of water resources, under scenarios of climatic changes. As a case study, it was analyzed the Jaguaribe-Metropolitanas system, which showed that the interconnection through EixÃo Water and Canal Worker, provide high connectivity of the system, and a low potential for changes in the same.Thus, the system becomes too dependent on a single source of water - the CastanhÃo - which makes it vulnerable to any failure that occurs within it. In general, it was verified that the possible climate changes would bring a decrease in the resilience of the system, since it was found a greater need to import water from the River Basin Jaguaribe for the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, when comparing the emissions scenarios (20C3M and A1B) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is suggested, therefore, the management of resilience through adaptive governance.