京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第18638号 / 経博第500号 / 新制||経||271(附属図書館) / 31552 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 照山 博司, 教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 敦賀 貴之 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

This thesis uses a macroeconomic approach to study labour adjustments following sector-specific shocks. I develop a general model, investigate its dynamic adjustment process and apply it to study the Canadian economy in 2002–2006. This episode is an interesting case study because it features a significant labour reallocation to the resource sector and away from manufacturing, precipitated by an increase in global commodity prices and an associated exchange rate appreciation. The results establish that impediments to the adjustment process are economically significant in the aggregate for this episode, imposing costs of up to three percent of output during the transition. These findings augment several studies that suggest individual workers can face large and persistent earnings losses during job turnover. However, unlike previous research, I use the search and matching approach — which incorporates explicit labour market frictions — to uncover the sources of these costs for the macroeconomy. The findings emphasize that job loss itself is not particularly important quantitatively, but rather the non-transferability of skills during job turnover is a key concern. Finally, I investigate how labour market policy impacts the economy’s response to sector-specific shocks by analyzing a counterfactual policy change in unemployment benefits and improved skill acquisition through faster learning and training subsidies. The results reveal interesting policy trade-offs. First, I find that increasing unemployment benefits prolongs the economy’s adjustment, reduces employment, output and welfare and increases unemployment incidence and duration. However, because this policy impacts high-productivity and low-productivity sectors differently, it shifts the composition of the remaining jobs towards high-productivity sectors, thereby raising aggregate productivity and also reduces wage inequality. Second, I find that faster skill acquisition has the potential to deliver large economic gains in the long-run, but requires up-front investment costs which entail reduced economic performance in the short-run. / Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2008-08-05 23:44:39.827

We analyze price dispersion using panel data from a large price comparison site. We use past pricing behavior to instrument for potential endogeneity that might result from the selection of firms to certain product markets. We find that greater price adjustment costs result in greater price dispersion. Although the impact of price adjustment costs on price dispersion became weaker over time, the causal effect of price adjustment costs on price dispersion is still present at the end of the period. Our results are robust to many alternative empirical speciffications. We also test a range of alternative explanations of price dispersion, such as search cost, service differentiation, obfuscation, vertical restraints, and market structure. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Economia / Doctoral Programme in Economics / Estudos empíricos anteriores mostram que quando as decisões são tomadas num contexto de incerteza e quando existem custos de ajustamento lineares ou fixos (não convexos), as empresas não ajustam continuamente o nível de emprego de forma a acomodar choques da procura do seu produto. Consequentemente, emergem períodos de inércia o que é suficiente para produzir histerese. Nesta dissertação estuda-se a existência de histerese da dinâmica do emprego ao nível da empresa e ao nível agregado. Em primeiro lugar, efectua-se uma descrição do padrão de ajustamento do emprego a nível microeconómico e estuda-se a sua relação com três fontes de inércia: i) a existência de custos de ajustamento não convexos; ii) a existência de incerteza na dinâmica da procura agregada; iii) a possibilidade de utilização da margem intensiva de ajustamento do factor trabalho (ajustamento através do número de horas por trabalhador). Segundo, analisamos as implicações agregadas do comportamento microeconómico observado. Se ao nível microeconómico os modelos de histerese oferecem uma boa explicação para a observação empírica, ao nível macroeconómico tem-se revelado mais difícil identificar a existência de histerese na dinâmica do emprego. De facto, as séries agregadas do emprego tendem a ser mais alisadas, e por essa razão, aparentemente inconsistentes coma existência de histerese. No entanto, se tivermos em conta as diferentes propriedades da histerese fraca (histerese ao nível micro) e da histerese forte (histerese ao nível macro) e se considerarmos a existência de empresas heterogéneas, isto é, se o problema da agregação for explicitamente considerado, como deve ser na presença de custos de ajustamento não convexos, então deverá ser possível verificar a existência de sinais de histerese ao nível macroeconómico. A análise empírica foi efectuada com dados mensais de empresas industriais portuguesas ao longo de um período de 11 anos. A amostra contém informação sobre o nível de emprego e sobre o nível de horas de trabalho e sobre um conjunto de outras variáveis que podem ser utilizadas como proxies de choques. No sentido de obter uma primeira aproximação ao processo de ajustamento do emprego, efectuamos uma análise descritiva sobre a variação líquida do emprego e testamos a existência de histerese ao nível da empresa através da estimação de um modelo de resposta assimétrica do emprego, interpretado á luz do modelo de histerese Non-Ideal Relay. De forma a testar a existência de histerese na dinâmica do emprego a nível agregado, aplicamos testes construídos com base em métodos computacionais baseados no modelo de Preisach e no Linear Play Model de histerese. No sentido de comparar os resultados a nível internacional, aplicamos os testes referidos a dados agregados da OCDE e EUROSTAT de 19 países da OCDE.Concluímos que: i) existem sinais claros da existência de inércia ao nível microeconómico causada pela existência de custos de ajustamento não convexos e pela possibilidade de ajustamento através da variação do número de horas de trabalho por trabalhador; ii) os sinais de histerese que normalmente se encontram ao nível microeconómico não se desvanecessem totalmente ao nível macroeconómico; iii) as propriedades de histerese são particularmente relevantes na dinâmica do emprego das empresas pequenas; iv) encontramos evidência significativa sobre a interacção entre a flexibilidade do ajustamento do factor trabalho através da variação do número de horas de trabalho por trabalhador e a existência de histerese no emprego. Ao contrário, não encontramos evidência significativa sobre a interacção entre a existência de incerteza na dinâmica da procura agregada e a existência de histerese no emprego. Estes resultados mostram que a dinâmica do emprego a nível agregado é condicionada significativamente pela existência de um padrão de ajustamento discreto ao nível microeconómico. / Previous empirical studies have shown that when decisions are made under uncertainty and adjustment costs are fixed or linear in structure (non-convex), firms do not permanently adjust employment in order to accommodate demand shocks. Consequent to this, periods of inertia would emerge and that is sufficient to produce hysteresis. This dissertation studies the existence of hysteresis in the dynamic path of employment at the firm and aggregate level. Firstly, we describe the path of micro-level employment and we establish its relationship with three sources of inertia: i) the existence of non-convex costs of adjustment; ii) uncertainty concerning the dynamics of aggregate product demand; iii) utilization of the intensive margin of adjustment of the labor input (adjustment through hours per employee). Secondly, we analyze the aggregate implications of the observed micro behavior. If at the micro level models of hysteresis offer a good explanation for the empirical evidence, at the macro level it has been more difficult to identify the existence of hysteresis in the dynamics of employment. Aggregate series of employment tend to look smoother and, for that reason, they are apparently inconsistent with the presence of hysteresis. However, if we take into consideration the different properties of weak hysteresis (hysteresis at the micro level) and strong hysteresis (hysteresis at the macro level), and if we take into account firms heterogeneity, i.e. if the problem of aggregation is explicitly considered as it should be in the presence of non-convex costs of adjustment, it would still be possible to uncover signs of hysteresis at the macro-level. The empirical analysis was carried out with a monthly panel of Portuguese manufacturing firms spanning a period of eleven years. This dataset has information on both employment and hours of work as well as on a good set of other variables that may be taken as proxies for shocks. To obtain a first insight into the process of employment adjustment, we provide some descriptive statistics on net employment changes, and to test the existence of hysteresis at the micro level we estimate a model of employment asymmetric response with path dependence interpreted under the Non-Ideal Relay model of hysteresis. To test the existence of hysteresis in the aggregate employment dynamics, we apply tests constructed with the help of computational methods based on the Preisach Model and on the Linear Play Model of Hysteresis. To put our results in an international setting, the aggregate analysis was also made with aggregate data from OECD and EUROSTAT. We conclude that: i) there are strong signs of the existence of sources of employment inertia at micro level, caused by non-convex adjustment costs and by the adjustment of labor input through the number of hours per employee; ii) signs of hysteresis commonly found at the micro level, do not completely vanish at the macro level; iii) hysteresis properties are particularly discernible for small firms even if they are less so in the case of larger units; vi) we find strong evidence of the interrelations between the flexibility of the labor input adjustment through hours of work and the existence of aggregate employment hysteresis, but only weak evidence of the interrelations between the existence of uncertainty in the dynamics of aggregate demand and hysteresis. These findings imply that aggregate employment is significantly shaped by lumpy adjustment at the micro level.

The objective of Paper [I] is to analyze potential effects on the Swedish forest sector of a continuing rise in the use of forest resources as fuel in energy generation. An increasing use of forest resources as an energy input may have effects outside the energy sector. In this paper we consider this by estimating a system of demand and supply equations for the four main actors on the Swedish roundwood market. In Paper [II], we estimate a dynamic factor demand model for the Swedish pulp industry. We find weak evidence of adjustment costs for capital. The results suggest that the user cost of capital is a significant determinant of pulp industry investments. We also find that pulp industry investments are insensitive to variations in the price of electricity. Paper [III] proposes a flexible form of adjustment cost function. An empirical illustration shows that the flexible form can detect both convex and non-convex adjustment costs. Furthermore, the flexible form permits testing for the experience effect on adjustment cost. The objective of paper [IV] is to analyze the price formation for wood fuel used by the Swedish district heating sector. According to previous research there is a significant potential for increasing the use of wood fuel in Sweden. The question raised in this paper is why this potential is not realized. According to our results we cannot reject the efficient market hypothesis for all years. The objective of Paper [V] is to test for market power on the market for biofuels. To achieve our objective we make use of the idea of Granger causality. If past values of quantity contribute significantly to the determination of price, quantity is said to Granger cause price, which we will treat as a sign of market power. According to our findings this effect is present.

The main purpose of this dissertation attempts to clarify the relations between imposed institutional change and social development in terms of Taiwan¡¦s development experiences. There are chiefly three studies in the dissertation. First of all, we reexamine Taiwan¡¦s democratic transition in institutional analysis. With regard to a political entrepreneur model, we shed light on the reasons why the transaction costs of Taiwan¡¦s democratic transition are not expensive and why the process of institutional change is relatively smooth. Secondly, we also explored the development of Taiwan¡¦s IC industry by virtue of imposed institutional analysis. We find it is the desirable government policies and appropriate institutional innovations that Taiwan¡¦s IC industry has made progress at a rapid rate in recent years. Finally, we analyze the interaction between technological choice and economic growth in terms of introducing adjustment costs of technology within a dynamic framework. We make a first attempt at exploring the technological adjustment costs on the rate of steady-state growth and the transitional behavior of the economy in an endogenous growth model.

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This dissertation consists of three essays in Labor Economics. The first chapter estimates the costs for establishments of hires and separations for a panel of German establishments. The panel records the start and the termination of the employment of all employees in the surveyed establishments, allowing estimation of adjustment costs under different assumptions of how frequently establishments revise their labor demand. Under the assumption that establishments revise their labor demand every month, estimates suggest hiring costs per employee of approximately 5,000 Euros, and costs of separations of 1,000 Euros. Hiring costs vary considerably between skilled (8,000 to 28,000 Euros per hire) and unskilled (4,000 to 8,000 Euros) labor. Spatial aggregation (large establishments) is associated with lower cost estimates, and only monthly adjustment frequencies yield estimates consistent with theoretical predictions. The second chapter analyzes the role of regional ethnic capital - defined as the average years of schooling of ethnic groups - in the educational attainment of young second generation immigrants in Germany using information on naturalization and country of birth in a nationally representative survey. I find evidence for externalities of ethnic capital for ethnic groups. A higher average education of ethnics makes attendance of higher-quality secondary schools more likely. Moreover, the effect is mainly mediated through the ethnic concentration in the region. However, if higher than regional aggregates are used for the measurement of ethnic capital, no externalities are detected. The third chapter analyzes the impact of regional own-ethnic concentration on the language proficiency of immigrants in Germany. It solves the endogeneity of immigrants' location choices by exploiting the fact that guest-workers in Germany after WWII were initially placed by firms and labor agencies. We find a robust negative effect of ethnic concentration on immigrants' language ability. Simulation results of a simultaneous location and learning choice model confirm the presence of the effect and show how immigrants with high learning cost select into ethnic enclaves. Under the counterfactual scenario of a regionally equal distribution of immigrants the share of German-speakers increases only modestly. / text

Prior research on intra-firm pay disparity suggests intra-firm pay disparity at various hierarchy levels affects firm performance and executive-level pay disparity is related to investment risk in the credit and the equity market. However, none of the studies examine the relationship between CEO-to-worker pay disparity and credit investment risk. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association between CEO-to-worker pay disparity on credit investors' risk assessments. Large CEO-to-worker pay disparity could suggest CEO rent extraction which increases credit risk or effective labor cost management that decreases credit risk. Overall results of this study indicate increased CEO-to-worker pay disparity is associated with a lower cost of debt (a higher probability of credit rating upgrades). This association weakens as the growth rate of average employee pay increases and is more pronounced for labor-intensive firms than for capital-intensive firms, suggesting credit investors incorporate the information about the effectiveness of labor cost management in CEO-to-worker pay disparity in their risk assessments. In addition, the negative relationship between the change in CEO-to-worker pay disparity and the change in the cost of debt is less salient when CEO compensation increases rapidly. Further analysis shows the association is attenuated by increased excessive CEO compensation. The findings indicate credit investors also consider the risk arising from CEO rent extraction when they evaluate CEO-to-worker pay disparity. / Ph. D.

Este artigo tem como objetivo verificar se há assimetria na rigidez de preços e de salários na economia brasileira; ou seja, se os agentes da economia são mais rígidos para baixo ou para cima para ajustarem seus preços e salários. Além disso, realiza-se a análise dos efeitos da política monetária e fiscal na dinâmica da economia. Para isso, utiliza-se um modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) não linear com custos de ajustamento assimétricos de preços e de salários com base no trabalho de Aruoba, Bocola e Schorfheide (2013). Esse modelo pode gerar rigidez de preços e de salários para baixo (ou para cima) que podem gerar não linearidades fortes. Diante da não linearidade gerada por esses aspectos, o modelo é solucionado através de um método de solução não linear e os seus parâmetros são estimados com a ajuda do Filtro de Partículas. O resultado encontrado é que tanto os preços quanto os salários nominais são mais rígidos para baixo e essas assimetrias na rigidez influenciam a dinâmica da economia quando esta sofre choques de política monetária e fiscal. / The objective of this article is to verify if there is asymmetry in the rigidity of prices and wages for the Brazilian economy; i.e. if the economic agents are more rigid downward or upward when adjusting their prices and wages. In addition, it performs the analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the dynamics of the economy. For this, it uses a nonlinear model of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) with asymmetric adjustment costs in prices and wages based on the work of Aruoba, Bocola and Schorfheide (2013). This model can generate prices and wages rigidity downward (or upward) that can produce strong nonlinearities. Considering the non-linearity generated by these aspects, the model is solved through a non-linear solution method and its parameters are estimated with the help of Particle Filter. The obtained result is that both prices and nominal wages are more rigid downwards and these asymmetries in rigidity influence the dynamics of the economy when it suffers shocks from monetary and fiscal policies.