The Western Cape (WC) region of South Africa, with its Mediterranean-type climate and predominantly winter rainfall, has been identified as highly vulnerable to projected climate change within both global and national contexts. The province will experience increasing temperatures and reductions in water supply in the future and these have to be adequately prepared for in order to mitigate these impacts. The aim of this study is to develop and apply an integrated approach to quantify the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture and water resource sectors of Ceres, in Western Cape, South Africa. Although researchers have been able, to model, to a certain extent, the impact of climate change on the farm sector using integrated methodology, they have not yet included the impact of future change in crop water requirements as well as the impact of accumulated chill units. So currently, we do not have empirical knowledge of how the current and future change in crop water requirements and accumulated chill units will affect the farm structure. Thus in order to accurately quantify the impacts of different adaptation strategies at farm level, the existing models need to be adjusted and methodology developed to incorporate the impact of temperature. SAPWAT was used to estimate crop water requirements for the base climate (1971-1990) and for the future climate (2046-2065). Results show that crop water requirements will increase as a result of projected climate change using the A2 climate change scenario. The water requirements for drip are less than that of Sprinkler, because of efficiency differences in the irrigation systems. The drip irrigation system is said to be a more efficient irrigation technology. It was also confirmed that future crop water requirements for drip irrigation system is still lower than the current water requirement under sprinkler. Accordingly, despite substantial increase in water requirements, under drip system, the total water requirement will be less under drip system compared to sprinkler system. The Utah model (Richardson) and Daily positive Utah (Infruitec) chill unit accumulation model are used to test the hypothesis that winter chill will in Ceres reduce with climate change. Results from both models confirmed that climate change will result in reduction of future accumulation of chill units. The impact of climate change (projected temperature increase) on chill unit accumulation is more pronounced using Richardson model compared to Infruitec model. The result shows that it might be difficult to produce some fruit crops in the future in the Ceres region owing to insufficient chill that would be accumulated in the future. This will likely require growersâ transition to different species or cultivars or develop management practices (planting density, pruning practices and irrigation regime) that can help overcome shortages in winter chill. Results from crop water and chill unit models were incorporated into other models to develop the Ceres Dynamic Integrated Model. The model was used to simulate various climate change scenarios, and the results correspond with what can be expected from the prediction of impact on agriculture. The impact of climate change has resulted in changes in area, water use and welfare of the farmers in the future climate. Three different sets of adaptation strategies were evaluated using the developed integrated model. These three adaptation strategies include; availability of farm dam and water right; improving water use efficiency; and increase in water tariffs. Farm dam capacity and winter water allocation seems to be the best adaptation strategy based on the results from this research. Giving farmers farm dam capacity alone, however will not improve the situation of the farmers, they also need water rights. Caution should be taken when considering such an adaptation option. Farm dam is a capital intensive infrastructure and if the farm dams donât fill up, it may worsen the situation of farmers since the high capital cost and resulting high unit cost of farm dam water will increase their financial vulnerability. Thus, giving farmers farm dam capacity and winter water right could be a good adaptation strategy but other issues surrounding its suitability should be considered. Increasing water use efficiency as an adaptation option according to analysis done in this study is also a good adaptation option for the Ceres farmers. Improved water management practices that increase the efficiency of irrigation water use may provide a significant adaptation potential under future climate change. Using water more efficiently improves the welfare of the farmers and also saves water for optimal irrigation usage. The model results indicate that increasing water tariffs as an adaptation strategy to climate change is less effective in the agricultural sector and can even result in a negative impact since farmers grow deciduous fruit crops which often use even more water irrespective of the tariff regime. Again, the price elasticity of demand for agricultural water is very inelastic since they cannot simply stop irrigating or change to deficit irrigation. Therefore, using water more efficiently will be the best adaptation option based on the analysis done in this thesis to help the Ceres farmers cope with the future projected impact of climate change. Overall, a change in the farm profile in Ceres can be expected as a result of climate change and adaptation thereto.

The main objective of this research was to develop the methods and procedures to more accurately quantify the trade-offs between improving production risk and environmental degradation using state-contingent theory to quantify economic and environmental risk with empirical distributions. The first step in developing the economic-environmental trade-offs is to model the risk efficiency of fertiliser applications through the development of a utility maximisation programming model. Separate state-contingent nitrogen maize yield response functions estimated from simulated crop yields for each state of nature characterise production risk empirically. The unexplained variability not captured by the response function is taken into account by adding the residuals to the expected response to produce a stochastic response function. The same procedure quantified the environmental fate of fertiliser applications. An upper partial moment (UPM) ensured that the optimised farmersâ response complied with an environmental pollution goal of 28kg/ha. The upper frequency method (UFM) was developed to ensure a stricter probability bound which was used to determine the conservativeness of the UPM. The results showed that the state-contingent representation of production risk were able to capture the changes in outcome variability without any distributional assumptions. More importantly, fertiliser can act as a risk-reducing input, risk-increasing input or both depending on soil choice while not considering the environment. The risk-reducing nature of fertiliser emphasises the importance of taking risk preferences into account when modelling economicenvironmental trade-offs. The UPM results indicated that an environmental constraint hold substantial compliance costs for agricultural producers. To minimise compliance costs producers had to make extensive and intensive margin changes to ensure compliance. Soil choice is identified as being more important than fertiliser application method in reducing compliance costs. An interesting finding is that environmental compliance resulted in fertiliser being a risk-reducing input. Comparison of the modelling results of the UPM and UFM showed that the UPM is very conservative in estimating the economic-environmental trade-offs. The size of the conservativeness is very situation specific and is determined by the combination of fixed resources used, fertiliser application method, compliance probability and the conservativeness measure used. The main conclusion is that state-contingent theory provides the opportunity to model the impact of management decisions on outcome variability due to the effect of the state of nature in which the production decision is made and not due to the input use decision. The state-contingent theory is therefore the more appropriate mechanism to model the influence of uncertainty on production risk and more importantly environmental risk. The application of the state-contingent theory requires transformation functions, which captures the relationship between management decisions and outcome variability due to the state of nature. Much more research is necessary on the development of appropriate transformation functions.

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The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) against Short-term Crop Hail Insurance as risk management strategies for crop hail insurance in two regions, Standerton and Lichtenburg. While Short-term Crop Hail Insurance has a fixed premium as percentage of the value of the crop, the decision maker can determine how much the contribution to the ART fund should be. Three different ART contributions had been analysed; ART 25 and ART 50 with respective contributions equal to 25 % and 50 % of the gross margin, and ART PC with a contribution equal to the premium of Short-term Crop Hail Insurance. A farm financial simulation model was developed to simulate the influence of hail damage and the different crop insurance policies on a maize enterprise with variable levels of yields and prices. Since the historical data of hail damage and the data on yields and prices did not match the same time series, the yield and price data were simulated with the procedure for estimating and simulating multivariate empirical (MVE) probability distributions. The risk efficiency of the different crop insurance options was analysed with stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF). SERF expresses the certainty equivalents in monetary values and enables the calculation of the utility weighted risk premiums that are used to determine the benefit between alternatives. The results indicated that hail damage does occur in both the Standerton and Lichtenburg regions, but the impact thereof is not the same in each region. The negative impact of hail damage on the cumulative probability distribution of the Net Present Value (NPV) after interest and tax was larger in the Standerton than in the Lichtenburg. Decision makers in both regions were willing to pay for crop hail insurance options, but much more so in Standerton than in Lichtenburg. The difference between the costs and benefits of a crop hail insurance policy determines the net advantage (or disadvantage) that it will bring to financial position of the enterprise. The insurance options with the largest net benefit to the enterprise were ART PC in Lichtenburg and Short-term Crop Hail Insurance in Standerton. However, in Standerton ART PC emerged as the second-best option, which also makes it an option to consider. The last test for effectiveness on the different crop hail insurance options was the ability of the different options to provide continuous cover against hail risk. The differences between the claim pay-out of Shortterm Crop Hail Insurance and ART PC indicate the instances where the ART PC was too small to provide the necessary cover. While it can be concluded that ART PC is ineffective in Standerton, owing to its inability to provide continuous cover and the large differences in pay-outs, the same conclusion cannot necessarily be made for Lichtenburg. The differences in pay-outs are small enough to be counter for by the decision maker, especially because the enterprise never returns a negative NPV, even without insurance, while the financial impact on the enterprise and the maximum benefit of the policy provides a total financial advantage for the enterprise. In conclusion, it was found that both Short-term Crop Hail Insurance and ART might be effective measures for the mitigation of hail damage, as long as these products are implemented according to findings of proper research for the option that will provide the enterprise with the largest net benefit in the specific area it is situated. Since the model can easily be adapted to be applied not only on other field crops, but also on horticultural crops with different types of risk perils, it is suggested that the model might be applied to other sectors of agriculture to test the effectiveness of insurance on these sectors.

Secondary data on cost and earnings from a 2012 survey of inshore Louisiana shrimpers was used as the foundation this partial budget analysis examining the feasibility of supplementing direct marketing (DM) strategies for Louisianan shrimp harvesters. Refinement of key variables for the analysis was conducted using supplemental surveys in 2014 of DM shrimp harvesters and DM consumers. The DM harvester survey (n= 72) produced information on actual price per pound for DM shrimp, as well as catch grade distribution, product marketing mix, and labor estimates. The DM consumer survey (n=255) yielded information on participants preferences for DM shrimp, including actual and maximum prices paid by grade. Survey data was utilized to refine partial budget template and spreadsheet simulations were conducted to examine the potential impacts of key variables under DM allocation scenarios of 5%, 15%, 30%, and 50% of total catch. Results of these simulations suggest that the average inshore shrimp harvester in Louisiana could potentially augment net income from operations (NIFO) (estimated at -$220 in 2012) by allocating as little as an additional 5% of their annual catch to direct marketing. Operations best suited for this practice are owner-operated vessels that have: annual harvest revenues exceeding $43,000, access to sufficient population base (123 DM transactions annual capacity); and, potential for dockside, vessel-based sales to be completed within twelve hours post trip. Labor was found to have the greatest impact on feasibility, with increasing units of labor resulting in negative NIFO from DM beyond 48 hours for most operations. Product mix simulations indicate that combinations involving Large and Medium grade shrimp were the most profitable, most likely due greater availability for these grades. Finally, participation in DM could be diminished in brief periods of substantial prices rise increases in the commodity market, a situation that existed briefly in 2013 when dockside prices of shrimp more than doubled across all grades due to a reduction in shrimp imports. The partial budget constructed in this analysis constitutes a decision tool for existing and prospective investors and will allow firm specific analyses of DM feasibility based on location, regulatory constraints, economic status, and marketing strategy.

The purpose of this study is to examine the agricultural production in the province of Quebec, and to evaluate in quantitative terms, in so far as the tools of analysis and availability of data permit, the degree of efficiency with which resources are being applied in the agriculture of this province.

At any time a farm-firm has at its disposal given quantities of various factors of production. This study is concerned with investigating a procedure which will generally lead to that combination of production factors which is both feasible and most renumerative. Any theory of the firm has much the same objectives but sufficient differences in assumptions exist to make a general theory which would include all others an expository tool excelling in completeness rather than lucidity. The subject areas of difference deal with the nature of the objective functional to be maximized, the differentibility of production relationships; the stochastic nature of production relationships and the imperfection of both input and output markets.

The importance of labour productivity as a factor in income has until recent years been ignored by the fishing industry and especially by the most important element in the industry, the fisherman. The fishing industry of the Maritimes has been one of Canada's depressed industries and in the mind of the fisherman the most serious problem was either the low price he received for his product or the high cost of the things he had to buy to stay in business. Rarely was any thought given to his own productive capacity. [...]

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Major Professor Not Listed / Increasing feed price and the adverse effect of low cost poultry imports have put economic pressure on domestic poultry production in Ghana. With an increasing population and per capita income, poultry demand is expected to grow at a higher rate. There is, therefore, a need to improve domestic farm performance and/or competitiveness. This study estimates an input-oriented distance function to evaluate the technical efficiencies and cost efficiencies of chicken production in Ghana in a non-parametric framework using a dataset that includes all known chicken farms in Ghana. The choice of feed, that constitutes about 74% and 91% of the total variable cost in broiler and layer operations, respectively, may have direct effects on the financial position and performance of farms. As a result, the study also identifies determinants of producers’ feed demand decision to inform policies to manage the availability, affordability and accessibility of feed. In identifying these determinants, the double hurdle model popular in the literature for modelling zero dependent variables is used to examine the decision mechanism underlying Ghanaian poultry farmers’ feed demand decisions. The results indicate that layer production is a more efficient enterprise than broiler production. However, noticeable differences in the production behavior and efficiency level among different farm classes, and among farms located in different geographic regions exist. In general, medium-sized farms combine their inputs and resources more optimally than large- and small-sized farms. The variables identified to influence efficiency levels differ substantially across the types of chicken enterprises and among estimated efficiency indicators. While the geographic location of farms, farm size, feed type, source of commercial feed and own feed preparation methods significantly influenced many of the performance indicators, farmers’ educational level had little effect on producers’ optimal inputs combination. The decision on the type and quantity of feed used is critical to enhancing producers’ profit margins. The study found that the decision to use own feed or commercial feed were largely influenced by similar factors but with opposite effects. For instance, the study finds that among other factors, the experience of farm operator, having a crop farm, farm location in a rural area, and farm size drive the decision to produce own feed but reduces the likelihood of purchasing commercial feed. On the other hand, age of farm operator and many regional dummies motivate the use of commercial feed but demotivates the using self-prepared feed. Differences also exist in the factors that influence the quantity of own feed produced and the quantity of commercial feed purchased among the three types of chicken enterprises.

Integrated Ocean Observing Systems (IOOS) provide real time oceanic data and sea state forecasting information that is utilized by numerous public and private sectors engaging in maritime activities. The U.S. Gulf Coast constituent of this system (GCOOS) consists of 321 platforms, buoys, and sensors that provide measurements of wind speed, wave height, water quality, and other parameters. Government entities have proposed an expansion of this infrastructure by 40% at an estimated cost of $35 million for installation and $33 million annually for maintenance. As part of a larger project commissioned to estimate monetized benefits of this expansion, this study applied contingent valuation (CVM) methodology in a survey of avid IOOS users located in the Gulf and Atlantic regions of the United States (N=18,000; n=484). The objective was to estimate general preferences for IOOS data and specific values for the proposed GCOOS expansion. A probit model was used to examine factors associated with a respondents likelihood to support the expansion under a public referendum. Responses were solicited via six randomized treatments containing varying tax levels. A majority of respondents (74%) indicated support for the measure, with imputed willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates ranging from $14.11 and $36.47 annually. Consistent with economic theory, the dollar amount of the tax was significant and negatively associated with referendum support. Proxies for avidity; however, proved either irrelevant or contrary to hypothesized effects. Vessel ownership, vessel size, distance traveled, and hours per trip were non-factors while the number of trips taken proved to be a significant, but negative predictor of referendum outcome. Alternatively, Gulf respondents engaged in fishing and fee-based services were more likely to support the measure indicating that proximity could be a more influential driver than avidity. Interpretation of these results is limited by the relatively small population queried. A broader depiction will emerge parallel versions of this survey are completed with larger populations. Taken together, these studies should prove valuable in characterizing preferences for IOOS data, assessing the economic merit of GCOOS expansion, and demonstrating the potential for non-market approaches in the valuation of publically-funded information systems.