This thesis tests the hypothesis that the qualities of different forecasts of exchange rate volatility depend on the underlying exchange rate regime. By examining the British pound during and after its withdrawal from the European Monetary System (EMS), this analysis compares "backward-looking" historical forecasts of future volatility with the "forward-looking" forecast of volatility reflected in current option prices. Because option implied volatility contains the market's most current expectations about future prices, theory and much previous evidence suggests this should be the superior predictor of future volatility. In contrast to previous research by findings, this study concludes that option implied volatility is not superior. During the time when the pound was in the EMS, implied volatility provided reasonably good forecasts of future volatility. However, after the pound withdrew from the EMS, various statistical measures of historical volatility are found to have greater informational content and predictive power about future actual volatility than implied volatility. In particular, a time series estimate, specifically a GARCH(1,1) model, had the most informational content and predictive power about realized pound volatility, especially in the period following sterling's withdrawal from the EMS. / Master of Arts

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2017-07-28T14:17:30Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Dissertação _2016_ - Cosmo Alves (versão final).pdf: 1791510 bytes, checksum: 88b79efb065d2308e81db5208508b5bf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-28T14:17:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Dissertação _2016_ - Cosmo Alves (versão final).pdf: 1791510 bytes, checksum: 88b79efb065d2308e81db5208508b5bf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / Controle interno é um processo integrado efetuado pela direção e corpo de funcionários, e é estruturado para enfrentar os riscos e fornecer razoável segurança de que, para a consecução da missão da entidade, os seguintes objetivos gerais serão alcançados: execução ordenada, ética, econômica, eficiente e eficaz das operações; cumprimento das obrigações de accountability; cumprimento das leis e regulamentos aplicáveis; e salvaguarda dos recursos para evitar perdas, mau uso e dano. Como o estabelecido pela AS/NZS 4360 – Standards Australia e Standards New Zealand; o do COSO – Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of The Treadway Commission; o CoCo – Criteria of Control Committee of Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants e o Turnbull Report. Dentre as metodologias existentes, o framework COSO é um dos mais recomendados por vários estudiosos. Historicamente, estes modelos foram emitidos para as entidades privadas, contudo, recentemente, diversas pesquisas tem se voltado para a análise da aplicabilidade na administração pública. Com vistas à melhoria dos processos de planejamento, gestão e controle, o Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) vem avaliando os órgãos públicos com base nas premissas e orientações do COSO, sendo um destes trabalhos o Acórdão nº 1.074/2009 que proferiu diversas determinações às instituições integrantes do Poder Judiciário. Com fulcro nesta decisão, os Tribunais, por meio de suas Unidades de Auditoria Interna, passaram a adotar medidas necessárias ao cumprimento do citado Acórdão. Por esta razão, tornou-se imprescindível avaliar se o sistema de controles internos do Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Paraíba encontra-se adequado aos pilares mestres do framework COSO, o qual foi fundamento para as determinações do TCU. Para orientar a referida avaliação, foi lançado como objetivo geral: verificar o grau de adequabilidade à metodologia COSO ERM do sistema de controles internos do Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Paraíba. Para tanto, realizou-se uma pesquisa survey com todos os 340 servidores, dos quais 195 responderam. As respostas foram convertidas e examinadas utilizando-se o coeficiente de Jaccard, o qual calcula o grau de semelhança e dessemelhança entre o Modelo referencial COSO e o sistema de controles internos do Tribunal, captado pelo questionário. Os resultados demonstraram baixo nível de adequabilidade para todos os componentes (Ambiente de Controle (15,78%), Definição de Objetivos (14%), Identificação de Eventos (0%), Avaliação de Riscos (8,3%), Resposta aos Riscos (0%), Procedimentos de Controle (7,6%), Informação e Comunicação (18,18%) e (0%) para o Monitoramento) e para todo o sistema (10,55%), o que demonstra, na perspectiva do COSO ERM, fragilidade de controles e da gestão riscos corporativos. / Internal control is an integrated process carried out by the management and personnel, and is structured to address the risks and provide reasonable assurance that, to achieve the organization's mission, the following general objectives will be achieved: orderly execution, ethical, economic, efficient and effective operations; fulfillment of accountability obligations; compliance with applicable laws and regulations; and safeguarding of resources to prevent loss, misuse and damage. For better inter-relate these objectives, various international bodies have issued documents defining theoretical and practical framework for implementation, which are referred to in the literature as models of internal controls, as established by AS / NZS 4360 - Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand; the COSO - Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway The Commission; CoCo - Criteria of Control Committee of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants and the Turnbull Report. Among the existing methodologies, the COSO framework is one of the most recommended by various scholars. Historically, these models have been issued to private entities, however, recently, several studies have focused on the analysis of the applicability of the public administration. In order to improve the planning, management and control, the Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) has been evaluating public bodies based on assumptions and COSO guidelines, one of them works the Judgment nº. 1,074 / 2009 issued several determinations to the Judiciary member institutions. Fulcrum with this decision, the courts, through its Internal Audit Units have adopted necessary measures to comply with the said judgment. For this reason, it has become essential to assess whether the system of internal controls of the Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Paraíba is appropriate for teachers pillars of the COSO framework, which was the basis for TCU determinations. To guide this evaluation, was released as a general objective: to verify the degree of appropriateness of the methodology COSO ERM system of internal controls of the Tribunal Regional Eleitoral da Paraíba. To this end, we carried out a survey research on all 340 servers, of which 195 responded. The answers were converted and examined using the coefficient of Jaccard, which calculates the degree of similarity and dissimilarity between the reference model and the COSO internal control system of the Court, captured by the questionnaire. The results showed a low level of fitness for all components (Control Environment (15.78%), Objective Setting (14%), Event Identification (0%), Risk Assessment (8.3%), risk Response (0%) Control activities (7.6%), Information and Communication (18.18%) and (0%) for monitoring) and for the entire system (10.55%), which demonstrates, in view of the COSO ERM, weak controls and enterprise risk management.

No / Risks exist in all aspects of our lives. Using data in both Scopus and ISI Web of Science, this review paper identifies pioneer work and pioneer scholars in enterprise risk management (ERM). Being ranked the first based on the review data, Desheng Wu has been active in this area by serving as a good academic network manager on the global research network, His global efforts with diverse networking have enabled him to publish outstanding papers in the field of ERM. Therefore, this paper also conducts a literature review of his papers and critical analysis of the work of Wu and Olson, from the perspective of the ERM, to glean implications and suggestions for the optimization and customization of the ERM. / NFSC grant (Grant # 71471055), the 100-Talents plan Program at Chinese Academy of Sciences and 1000-Talents plan Program for the Young Scientists.

La grande famille des facteurs de transcription Ets est caractérisée par un domaine de liaison à l’ADN, le domaine ETS, qui présente une structure de type hélice-tour-hélice ailé et qui reconnaît la séquence nucléotidique GGAA/T. Ces facteurs sont des protéines modulaires, dont les domaines sont structurellement conservés, régulent la transcription de leurs gènes cibles. L’action régulatrice de ces facteurs de transcription, ainsi que leur spécificité, dépendent de leurs sites d’expression, du taux auquel ils sont exprimés ainsi que des modifications post-traductionnelles qui les touchent. Au sein de la famille Ets, les trois membres du groupe PEA3 - Erm, Pea3 et Er81 - sont impliqués dans divers processus tant physiologiques tels que le développement des neurones sensitifs et moteurs que pathologiques tels que la croissance et l’invasion tumorale ou l’apparition de métastases, au niveau mammaire notamment. Notre travail a eu pour ambition de mieux comprendre les relations structure/fonction des membres du groupe PEA3, et plus particulièrement de Erm. Pour réaliser l’étude structurelle des trois membres du groupe PEA3, nous les avons produits, via le système d’expression baculoviral, et purifiés. Dans ces conditions, nous avons obtenu plusieurs mg de la protéine Erm purifiée à plus de 95%. Nous avons dès lors réalisé des études par dichroïsme circulaire et spectrométrie infrarouge qui ont mis en évidence une faible structuration de la protéine. Ces résultats corrèlent avec les prédictions bioinformatiques pour la structuration en hélice alpha. Néanmoins, certaines divergences sont apparues en ce qui concerne la détermination de la structuration en feuillets beta, ces derniers étant probablement surévalués dans les études expérimentales suite à une forte propension à l’agrégation protéique. En parallèle, nous avons pris part à la démonstration du fait que la protéine Erm est modifiée par ubiquitinylation. Cette modification post-traductionnelle a pour conséquence de diriger Erm vers la voie de dégradation par le protéasome et donc de rendre ce facteur de transcription très labile. C’est ainsi qu’à l’heure actuelle, les tentatives de cristallisation de la protéine sont restées sans succès. Afin de mettre en évidence les gènes régulés par les membres du groupe PEA3 dans le cancer mammaire métastatique, nous avons effectué des études par micro-array dans la lignée humaine MDA-MB-231. Lors d’expériences où l’expression de erm et de er81 a été diminuée par la technique des shRNA, nous n’avons malheureusement pas pu identifier de gènes dont l’expression était modulée de façon reproductible. Enfin, dans le but de mieux cerner les mécanismes qui conduisent à la surexpression des facteurs de transcription du groupe PEA3, nous nous sommes intéressés à la régulation de leur expression. Aussi, suite au travail initié préalablement au laboratoire sur le gène erm humain, nous avons déterminé une région de 24 nucléotides au sein du promoteur sensible à l’activation par la voie des PKCs conventionnelles (cPKCs). Cette région contient des sites putatifs de liaison pour plusieurs facteurs de transcription. Les expériences de mutagenèse dirigée et de retard sur gel indiquent que la régulation positive de erm par la voie des cPKCs semble être le résultat de la modification de l'activité d'un ou plusieurs facteur(s) transcriptionnel(s) qui reste(nt) à identifier.

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the ERM II mechanism and to explain it's positives and negatives for the internal and external economic balance. In the first part of this thesis the author engages in the ERM II system and other applied exchange mechanisms. Further he focuses in detail on the theory of internal and external economic balance. In the analytic part of the work the author uses chosen indicators to monitor the influence of ERM II mechanism on the internal and external balance of three selected countries - Malta, Cyprus and Latvia. In the closing part the author summarizes the outcome of the analysis.

Diplomová práce hodnotí dosavadní historii Evropské měnové unie. Zaměřuje se na rozbor mechanizmu ERM II. Hlavní část je aměřena na analýzu integrační pozice ČR vzhledem k přijetí Eura. Rozbor maastrichtských kritérií ukazuje nedostatky v několika oblastech, především u kritéria veřejných financí. Třetí část hodnotí scénáře přijetí Eura a aspekty spojené se vstupem do EMU. Datum přijetí Eura bylo posunuto na horizont kolem roku 2011, což vyžaduje minimální setrvání v mechanizmu ERM II po dobu dvou let. Poté by měly převážit pozitiva pro ČR vzhledem k užívání této měny.

The soil-dwelling gram-positive coccobacillus Rhodococcus equi is a well-known veterinary pathogen and emerging human pathogen. Although Rhodococcus infection is primarily associated with pyogranulomatous pneumonia in foals, these bacteria can also infect other animal species including humans. R. equi pathogenicity is mediated by the conjugative virulence plasmid (pVAP) which promotes intracellular proliferation in host macrophages. Currently R. equi is endemic in horse breeding farms worldwide. No R. equi vaccine is available and both treatment and prophylaxis rely on the administration of a prolonged course with a combination of macrolide antibiotics (typically erythromycin) and rifampicin. These antimicrobials were introduced in the therapy against R. equi in the 1980s and multiresistance has now emerged among foal isolates, increasing the risk of zoonotic transmission. In this thesis, the role of conjugal extrachromosomal replicons in the host adaptation of R. equi was explored. A previous epidemiological study indicated that different variants of the pVAP virulence plasmid are associated with different animal hosts. This PhD project provides experimental confirmation of a R. equi plasmid-driven host tropism. In vivo and in vitro competition assays were performed using a set of isogenic strains only different in the virulence plasmid type, in adapted (horse) and non-adapted (mouse) model species. The data obtained in the horse model provides clear evidence of a significant negative selection of the non-equine virulence plasmids both at a cell and at the animal level, while no selection was observed in the non-adapted mouse model. Furthermore, this project characterized the determinant responsible for macrolide resistance in R. equi, a novel erm methylase gene, erm(46). The erm(46) determinant was shown to be transferable between strains by conjugation and herein the underlying mechanism and how erm(46) becomes stabilized in R. equi is described. PacBio SMRT-sequencing based analysis revealed that the erm(46) gene is carried in a self-replicating conjugative plasmid of about 80 kb, that we designated pRErm46. The conjugation machinery of pRErm46 was hypothesized to be responsible for bringing the erm(46) determinant into R. equi. However, some erythromycin resistant isolates lack pRErm46 but erm(46) transfer is still observed. This reflects the observation that erm(46) is present in a mobile element that, upon acquisition with the pRErm46 replicon, transposes at a high frequency and to multiple locations of the host genome. If the erm(46) mobile element transposes to the chromosome, no further transfer of the resistance is observed at a detectable frequency in the absence of pRErm46. On the other hand, if the erm(46) element transposes to the R. equi virulence plasmid, the erm(46) determinant co-opts the pVAPA conjugal transfer machinery and gets transferred at the same high frequency as the virulence plasmid (10-2). This constitutes a unique example of efficient co-transfer, in the same genetic vehicle, of virulence and antimicrobial determinants, two key niche-adaptive traits required for within-host survival of bacterial pathogen.

<p>Den omgivning organisationer idag ställs inför blir alltmer krävande. En allt hårdare reglering, hot från nya teknologier, samt de företagsskandaler som härjat i media, har lett till att dagens organisationer ser på risk på ett nytt sätt. En utveckling som nyligen skett inom riskhantering är Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). Denna uppsats undersöker den roll ERM, och i synnerhet ett nyutvecklat ramverk som används för att implementera ERM, har i en organisations riskarbete. Ramverket, COSO:s ERM, består av åtta kontrollpunkter som enligt ramverket bör finnas i en organisation som utför sitt ERM-arbete på ett korrekt sätt.</p><p>Studiens syfte är att undersöka likheter och olikheter mellan en organisations riskarbete och COSO:s riskhanteringsramverk samt den teoribildning som skapats kring Enterprise Risk Management. En fallorganisation studerades med hjälp av intervjuer och analyseras efter förekomsten av ramverkets kontrollpunkter samt ERM-teori.</p><p>Författarna fann att ramverkets alla kontrollpunkter till viss mån kunde utläsas i fallorganisationens riskarbete, men inte fullt ut. Under varje punkt kunde element utläsas som var i likhet med ramverket, men även element där fallorganisationen arbetade annorlunda. De största olikheterna mot ramverket var att en integrering mellan riskaptit och strategisättning inte kunde utläsas, att fallorganisationen inte använde sig av ramverkets fyra målområden samt att kommunikationen av risk inte förmedlades ut i organisationen.</p><p>Förutom de olikheter som uppmärksammats anser författarna att fallorganisationen till stor del skapat ett riskarbete präglat av ERM. En implementering av COSO-ramverket skulle inte nödvändigtvis resultera i bättre riskhanteringsrutiner, men skulle däremot kunna bidra till en tydligare struktur i arbetet.</p>

Solutions of learning problems by Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) need to be consistent, so that they may be predictive. They also need to be well-posed, so that they can be used robustly. We show that a statistical form of well-posedness, defined in terms of the key property of L-stability, is necessary and sufficient for consistency of ERM. / revised July 2003

Den omgivning organisationer idag ställs inför blir alltmer krävande. En allt hårdare reglering, hot från nya teknologier, samt de företagsskandaler som härjat i media, har lett till att dagens organisationer ser på risk på ett nytt sätt. En utveckling som nyligen skett inom riskhantering är Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). Denna uppsats undersöker den roll ERM, och i synnerhet ett nyutvecklat ramverk som används för att implementera ERM, har i en organisations riskarbete. Ramverket, COSO:s ERM, består av åtta kontrollpunkter som enligt ramverket bör finnas i en organisation som utför sitt ERM-arbete på ett korrekt sätt. Studiens syfte är att undersöka likheter och olikheter mellan en organisations riskarbete och COSO:s riskhanteringsramverk samt den teoribildning som skapats kring Enterprise Risk Management. En fallorganisation studerades med hjälp av intervjuer och analyseras efter förekomsten av ramverkets kontrollpunkter samt ERM-teori. Författarna fann att ramverkets alla kontrollpunkter till viss mån kunde utläsas i fallorganisationens riskarbete, men inte fullt ut. Under varje punkt kunde element utläsas som var i likhet med ramverket, men även element där fallorganisationen arbetade annorlunda. De största olikheterna mot ramverket var att en integrering mellan riskaptit och strategisättning inte kunde utläsas, att fallorganisationen inte använde sig av ramverkets fyra målområden samt att kommunikationen av risk inte förmedlades ut i organisationen. Förutom de olikheter som uppmärksammats anser författarna att fallorganisationen till stor del skapat ett riskarbete präglat av ERM. En implementering av COSO-ramverket skulle inte nödvändigtvis resultera i bättre riskhanteringsrutiner, men skulle däremot kunna bidra till en tydligare struktur i arbetet.