Diploma thesis is concerned with foreign exchange risk management in terms of international trade. It deals with types of foreign exchange rate risk (transaction exposure, economic exposure, translation exposure) and their influence on business activity. Diploma thesis also focuses on the possibility of future foreign exchange rate's prediction. The main part of the thesis is devoted to various methods of foreign exchange rate risk management. These methods are analysed under two main groups, internal methods and external methods. Under internal methods, following techniques are analysed: netting, matching, leading and lagging, currency diversification, choice of invoicing currency and pricing policy. External methods focus on the use of financial derivatives, specifically currency forwards, currency futures, currency option and currency swaps. Analysis of exchange rate risk management using financial derivatives is supported with illustrative examples.

This dissertation investigates the long and the short run relationships as well as the causal relationship between oil price movements and exchange rates. The study uses daily data for a 12-year period commencing in January 2007 and December 2018, focuses on four net oil exporting African countries, namely, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt. The data was analysed using the time series techniques covering unit root, cointegration and causality analyses. The results of the study found that in the long run, oil prices movements are observed to be negatively related to the returns on the Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pounds and Algerian Dinar indicating that an oil price increases result in the depreciation of the exchange rates for each of the aforementioned countries. In the short run, oil prices movements are observed to be positively related to the returns on Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pounds and Algerian Dinar indicating that oil price increase results in the appreciation of the exchange rates. The causality results show evidence of bidirectional causality for the Nigerian Naira and the Angolan Dinar, unidirectional causality for the Egyptian pound and lastly no evidence of causality was found for the Angolan Kwanza. This dissertation suggests the policymakers to stabilize the effects of oil price movements through expansionary monetary policy, to shield African economies from sudden economic depression.

Increased globalisation of trade has led a growing number of firms to search beyond their traditional domestic markets. As a result, export-led growth has gained focus, particularly amongst industrialising nations, or so-called efficiencydriven economies, in search of economic growth. Policy prescriptions have generally proposed a weakening of the exchange rate as a means to stimulate exports; whilst an exchange rate appreciation would be detrimental to exports and encourage imports. Past research on this topic has been mixed.This research examines the impact of exchange rate on export performance in a sample of nine efficiency-driven economies for the period from 1990 to 2009. These economies, with floating exchange rate arrangements, include Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. Panel data models using a fixed-effects method have been applied in this research. The research finds that a weakening of the exchange rate does not necessarily improve export performance. To the contrary, export growth is associated with a stronger, relative exchange rate. The lag effect of exchange rate movement on export performance is slightly more pronounced, but remains statistically insignificant. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第24376号 / 経博第663号 / 新制||経||302(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 神事 直人, 准教授 長谷川 誠, 准教授 高野 久紀 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

Emerging insurance markets, have limited access to financial instruments that they can use to create common hedge(s) to manage foreign exchange risk. This is the first empirical study to focus on the limitations when modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. This work is based on the cash flow methodology proposed by Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005) in reference to banks, and employed by Li et al. (2009) when assessing US insurance companies. Some econometric methodological innovations have been introduced to study the limitations of modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. An extensive literature review is followed by a quantitative investigation, to answer the following research questions. 1) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a fundamental (economic) method of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant, for all Egyptian insurance companies? 2) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a technical (statistical) way of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant for all Egyptian insurance companies? 3) Is the exchange transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, significant? Although the foreign exchange rate transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, is insignificant (question3), the percentage of Egyptian insurers affected by foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in US dollars, estimated at the individual firm level, was found to be 22% (question 1) and 35% (question2) respectively.

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