Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Aleksan Shanoyan / With the recent increase in record-breaking weather events and the inherent susceptibility of the fishmeal industry to temperature fluctuations, the industry dynamics and sustainability of the Peruvian fishmeal sector has gained renewed attention. Among important causes of concern are the cyclical impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on productivity and profitability of fishmeal producing firms, long-term structural changes in the industry, and resulting socio-economic consequences. Although distinct risk management strategies have been implemented by industry players and a range of policy initiatives have been introduced by the government over the years, the firms in the Peruvian fishmeal industry remain highly susceptible to the effects of ENSO events. The increased frequency and magnitude of ENSO events over the past decade has forced relatively less resilient firms out of business and has been accompanied by an observable trend towards increased industry concentration. While there is a potential for efficiency gains and economies of scale from increased concentration, policy makers and industry players have concerns about negative social implications from declining numbers of small and medium firms and shifting competitive dynamics in the industry. As a result, policy-makers and industry stakeholders are in the continuous search for effective strategies and mechanisms for enhancing the resilience of individual fishmeal producers and the overall industry to the effects of ENSO events. The objective of this study is to expand the understanding of factors that affect the resilience of firms to ENSO events in the Peruvian fishmeal industry. The analysis is based on a panel database that combines information from the Peruvian Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (Statistics Institute), Aduanet (Peruvian Customs website), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The objective is to identify firm characteristics and factors that can potentially enhance the resilience of a firm to the negative impacts of ENSO events. The specific period of study covers the ENSO event that lasted from July 2009 to April 2010. The resilience of individual firms is measured by applying system resilience framework proposed by Barroso et al. (2015). Subsequently, the effect of a range of characteristics on firm resilience is estimated using a fractional response logit method. Among key parameters of interest are the estimated effects of size, experience, location, and participation in government support programs. The results indicate positive relationship between resilience and experience, diversification, access to government subsidy programs, and share of imported inputs. The results also indicate a negative effect of firm size on resilience to ENSO events. The industry and policy implications of the findings are discussed, while highlighting the number of methodological limitations. The overall contribution of this study is twofold. First it presents an application of resilience triangle approach to measuring firm resilience in the context of Peruvian fishmeal industry. Second, it provides new insights on the factors affecting firm resilience to the negative impact of ENSO events. The findings have a potential to inform policy and industry initiatives designed to enhance the industry’s ability to cope with negative consequences of ENSO events.

Rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviours are heightened amongst prisoners, and present a significant challenge to correctional facilities globally. Despite this, there is a paucity of theoretically driven research examining the factors that underlie suicidality in prisoners. Two theoretical models of suicide, the Cry of Pain model (CoP; Williams, 1997) and the Schematic Appraisals Model of Suicide (SAMS; Johnson, Gooding & Tarrier, 2008) have highlighted the roles of negative appraisals and perceptions of defeat, entrapment, and hopelessness, as key psychological drivers for suicidal thoughts and behaviours. The overarching aim of this thesis was to investigate the psychological mechanisms that underlie suicidal thoughts and behaviours amongst prisoners. A corollary aim was to examine the psychological factors that may confer resilience to suicidal thoughts and behaviours amongst incarcerated individuals. Firstly, a comprehensive narrative review examined evidence of the applicability of current theoretical approaches to suicide, as applied to prisoner samples. The findings of this review highlighted gaps in the literature, from which a number of research questions were developed for investigation in the current thesis. Next, three empirical studies were designed to investigate the roles of perceptions of defeat, entrapment, hopelessness, and negative appraisals in suicidal ideation. In the first of these studies, cross-sectional evidence was obtained that perceptions of internal entrapment and hopelessness were predictive of suicidal ideation amongst prisoners (Chapter 4). In a second study, the predictive effects of defeat, hopelessness, and entrapment were examined in a longitudinal investigation, finding no significant longitudinal relationship (Chapter 7). In a further empirical study, support was provided for the role of momentary negative appraisals of the present and future as proximal predictors of the severity of suicidal thoughts (Chapter 5). Two further studies examined the role of impulsiveness in suicidality, and provided evidence for the deleterious effect of impulsiveness upon both suicidal ideation (Chapter 8) and self-harm ideation (Chapter 9) in prisoners. Two further studies provided the first theoretically driven investigations of potential resilience factors, conceptualized as positive self-appraisals, within a prisoner sample. Based on the Schematic Appraisals Model of Suicide (SAMS), it was proposed that positive self-appraisals would confer resilience against suicidal thoughts and behaviours. Two studies investigated this hypothesis. The first of these studies found that, contrary to predictions, positive self-appraisals of social support and social reciprocity did not buffer the impact of negative situational appraisals upon suicidal thoughts (Chapter 5). In the second study, evidence was obtained for a buffering effect of positive self-appraisals upon suicidal thoughts. In particular, positive appraisals of interpersonal problem-solving were found to buffer the effects of internal entrapment on suicidal thoughts (Chapter 6).Overall, the findings of this thesis serve to further our understanding of the psychological processes underlying the development of, and resilience to, suicidality amongst prisoners. These results underscore the need to empirically examine the applicability and transferability of psychological models of suicide within prisoner populations. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are outlined throughout the thesis.

M.A. / Using the concept of resilience, this study investigates mechanisms and strategies used by young men in Zola, Soweto to cope in adverse circumstances. The study breaks with the preoccupation of social science research with 'youth as trouble' issues and resonates with the United Nations' objective to drive forward notions of human development which aim at sustaining support and collaboration in assisting people to develop their full potential. In specific, the study asks the question “What are the mechanisms and strategies that young men in Soweto use to cope in adverse circumstances?” The study, contrary to most resilience studies worldwide, employed a qualitative methodology and relies strongly on data collected in 2007 through in-depth interviews and participant observation among young men of 18-24 years of age in Zola, Soweto, just outside of Johannesburg. The findings highlight how notions of masculinity contribute to the legitimisation of crime and the high uptake of criminal responses to adversity in a context of poverty and inequality – a process I discuss in light of Michael Ungar's notion of 'hidden resilience'. The project's contributions to research are threefold: Firstly, the study contributes to the international body of resilience literature by providing a context-specific account of risk and adaptation among young men in an urban township environment in South Africa. Secondly, it adds to recent discussions on the appropriateness of different methods in studying resilience by reflecting on some of the most common approaches to researching resilience among children and youths. Lastly, the project takes a glance at potential fields of interest for policy and programme development that emanate from the study's innovative perspective on 'youth at risk' in Zola.

D. Litt. et Phil. / In the past, psychology has typically focused on identifying and treating mental illness, psychological deficits and disabilities, and research was often concerned with the respective roles of nature and nurture in behavioural problems. A number of psychologists and researchers have initiated a paradigm shift to one of positive psychology which emphasises enhancing personal strengths, developing and maintaining well-being, and encouraging positive emotions. Little research however has thus far been done to investigate the role of nature and nurture in psychological wellness. The current study addressed this dearth in the scientific literature by investigating the possible relationships between temperament and psychological well-being, specifically character strengths and resilience. The study was based on the assumption that positive emotionality and psychological well-being may have biological roots, just as psychopathology has been found to have biological underpinnings. The biologically-based construct of temperament refers to the innate and stable aspect of an individual that impacts thoughts, feelings and behaviours. Psychological wellbeing, for the purposes of the current study, incorporated two elements, namely character strengths and resilience. Character strengths may be defined as positive characteristics within individuals. Resilience refers to coping with, and perhaps even thriving, when faced with challenging life situations.

Magister Psychologiae - MPsych / The thesis hopes to augment this focus by exploring the multitude of discourses women make in terms of oppression, resilience being one such possible response. It is proposed that the research may expand on existing literature, offering an alternative perspective as to why women often remain in abusive relationships. Furthermore, the rationale of the thesis is to contest the notion that women who remain in domestically violent relationships do so for underlying pathological reasons. / South Africa

This study was undertaken in order to research on the trauma caused by the Matebeleland Massacre of 1982-87 in Tsholotsho Zimbabwe. This dissertation is two pronged: one part is to ascertain the trauma in the community twenty years after and the second aspect is to suggest interventions that can be applied. The history of the country and the political background to the conflict is the most rational way to explain why this may have happened. This history has been used to justify the Massacre and is being used continuously even today by those in power. If people do not learn from their history they are bound to repeat it, (interview with Phineahs Dube 4/8/20080). Trauma has been investigated using a qualitative social reconstruction narrative theory by way of cultural world view and not medical psychological means. Investigating people’s painful experiences and emotions has not been easy. A suitable framework and trauma measure which are scientifically approved had to be found and used in order to validate and verify the results in a manner that the outcome can be accepted scientifically and internationally. Chronic ‘on going’ trauma or Long-term Psycho-social Crisis is the kind of trauma that the researcher has come up with if conventional medical jargon is to be avoided. The survivors can not fully comprehend what happened to them but the greatest injury and pain is caused by how the community as a whole was under threat of annihilation by the Gukurahundi, The name itself is infamous and points to the brutal nature of the operation of this North Korean trained army battalion known simply, as the 5th Brigade. The interventions suggested are psycho-social since the context is rural Tsholotsho Matebeleland, culturally, a socio-centric set up with in an African world view, (Mbiti 1969) and (Mugambi and Kirima 1976). The Church is proposed as the agent for change in the community as light and salt due to its proximity to the community. The interventions include funerals services and rituals, testimonies, and archival processes for the sake of prevention and collective memory. The psycho-social cultural approach takes the survivor from being just an individual with a personal problem to a collective memory of experience. (Becker 2000: 18) This gives practical theology an opportunity for a logical conclusion of all theologizing which is a theology of praxis or engagement. / Dsecription (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Practical Theology / Unrestricted

The total mangrove area cover in South Africa is 1631.7 ha, with the largest area cover in a few estuaries in the KwaZulu-Natal Province (1391.1 ha) and the remainder recorded in the Eastern Cape Province with 240.6 ha. This represents 0.05 percent of Africa‟s mangrove area cover and although small adds irreplaceable value to the biodiversity of South Africa. Mangroves are threatened by over-utilization through harvesting for firewood and building materials as well as excessive browsing and trampling by livestock. The objective of this study was to investigate the response of mangroves to different stressors from natural change as well as anthropogenic pressures. This was done by identifying pressures, measuring area cover, population structure and environmental parameters such as sediment characteristics. Mangroves in 17 estuaries along the east coast were investigated. Population structure and the area covered by mangroves in 2011/2012 were compared with data from the same area for 1999. Detailed studies were conducted in St. Lucia Estuary to investigate the response of mangroves to reduced tidal flooding; mangrove expansion at a latitudinal limit in a protected area at Nahoon Estuary was studied and the effect of cattle browsing on mangroves was measured at Nxaxo Estuary. The St. Lucia Estuary (28°S; 32°E) represented a unique study site as the mouth has been closed to the sea since 2002 and the mangrove habitats have been non-tidal. St. Lucia Estuary is both a Ramsar and World Heritage site and therefore understanding the response of mangroves to changes in the environment is important. In 2010 sediment characteristics and mangrove population structure were measured at four sites which were chosen to represent different salinity and water level conditions. The site fringing the main channel had the highest density of mangrove seedlings and saplings. The dry site had a lower density of mangroves with mostly only tall adult trees and few saplings. Mangrove tree height and density increased at sites with high sediment moisture and low surface sediment salinity. Few seedlings and saplings were found at sites with dry surface sediment and high salinity. Long term data are needed to assess the influence of mouth closure on recruitment and survival of the mangrove forest at St. Lucia Estuary; however this study has shown that sediment characteristics are unfavourable for mangrove growth at sites now characterized by a lack of tidal flooding. It is not known when exactly the mangroves were planted in Nahoon Estuary (32°S; 27° E), East London, but it is suspected that this was in the early 1970s. Avicennia marina (Forrsk.)Vierh. was planted first, followed a few years later by the planting of Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Lam. and Rhizophora mucronata (L.) among the larger A. marina trees. Surprisingly the mangrove population appears to be thriving and this study tested the hypothesis that mangroves have expanded and replaced salt marsh over a 33 year period. This study provides important information on mangroves growing at higher latitudes, where they were thought to not occur naturally due to lower annual average temperatures. It further provides insights on future scenarios of possible shifts in vegetation types due to climate change at one of the most southerly distribution sites worldwide. The expansion of mangroves was measured over a 33 year period (1978 - 2011) using past aerial photographs and Esri ArcGIS Desktop 10 software. In addition, field surveys were completed in 2011 to determine the population structure of the present mangrove forest and relate this to environmental conditions. The study showed that mangrove area cover increased linearly at a rate of 0.06 ha-1 expanding over a bare mudflat area, while the salt marsh area cover also increased (0.09 ha-1) but was found to be variable over time. The mangrove area is still small (< 2 ha) and at present no competition between mangroves and salt marsh can be deduced. Instead the area has the ability to maintain high biodiversity and biomass. Avicennia marina was the dominant mangrove species and had high recruitment (seedling density was 33 822 ± 16 364 ha-1) but only a few Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata individuals were found (< 10 adult trees). The site provides opportunities for studies on mangrove / salt marsh interactions in response to a changing climate at the most southern limit of mangrove distribution in Africa. This research has provided the baseline data, permanent quadrats and tagged trees to be used in future long-term monitoring of population growth and sediment characteristics. At Nxaxo Estuary (32°S; 28°E) the response of mangrove trees (Avicennia marina) to cattle browsing and trampling was investigated by using cattle exclusion plots. Exclusion plots were established by fencing in five 25 m2 quadrats and adjacent to each experimental quadrat a control quadrat (not fenced in, 25 m2) was set-up. Trees were tagged and measured annually from 2010 to 2012. Sediment salinity, pH, moisture, organic content, compaction as well as sediment particle size was also measured in each quadrat. Sediment characteristics did not vary between control and experimental plots but did show changes between the years. The mangrove trees in the cattle exclusion plots grew exponentially over a period of two years. There was a significant increase in mean plant height (5.41 ± 0.53 cm), crown volume (0.54 ± 0.01 m3) and crown diameter (7.09 ± 0.60 cm) from 2010 to 2012. Trees in the control plots had significantly lower growth (p < 0.05). There was a decrease in plant height (-0.07 ± 0.67cm1) and only small increases in crown volume (0.14 ± 0.1 m3) and crown diameter (2.03 ± 2.61 cm). The research showed that browsing on mangroves by cattle stunts growth and causes a shrubby appearance as a result of coppicing. The browsed trees were dwarfed with horizontal spreading of branches and intact foliage close to the ground while the plants in the cattle exclusion plots showed an increase in vertical growth and expansion. In the cattle exclusion plots there was a significantly higher percentage of flowering (67 percent) and fruiting (39 percent) trees in 2012 compared to the control sites where 34 percent of the plants were flowering and 5.4 percent of the plants carried immature propagules. Observations in the field also indicated that cattle had trampled a number of seedlings thus influencing mangrove survival. The study concluded that browsing changes the morphological structure of mangrove trees and reduces growth and seedling establishment. This is an additional stress that the mangroves are exposed to in rural areas where cattle are allowed to roam free. Seventeen permanently open estuaries provide habitat for mangrove forests along the former Transkei coast. This part of the Eastern Cape is mostly undeveloped and difficult to access. Mangrove area cover, species distribution, population structure and health of the mangrove habitat were compared with results from previous studies in 1982 and 1999. The mangrove Bruguiera gymnorrhiza had the densest stands and was widely distributed as it was present in 13 of the 17 estuaries. Avicennia marina was dominant in those estuaries which had the largest area cover of mangroves and was present in 10 estuaries, while Rhizophora mucronata was rare and only present in five estuaries. Anthropogenic and natural impacts were noted within the mangrove habitats in each of these estuaries. Harvesting of mangrove wood, livestock browsing and trampling and footpaths occurred in most of the estuaries (> 70 percent). It was observed that browsing on trees resulted in a clear browse-line and browsing on propagules mainly by goats resulted in reduced seedling establishment in most of the estuaries except those in protected areas. Mangroves had re-established in estuaries where they had been previously lost but mouth closure due to drought and sea storms resulted in the mass die back of mangroves in the Kobonqaba Estuary. There was a total loss of 31.5 ha in mangrove area cover in the last 30 years and this was a total reduction of 10.5 ha (11 percent) for every decade. This is high considering that the present total mangrove area cover is only 240.6 ha for all the Transkei estuaries. In this study it was concluded that the anthropogenic impacts such as livestock browsing and trampling as well as harvesting in these estuaries contributed most to the mangrove degradation as these are continuous pressures occurring over long periods and are expected to increase in future with increasing human population. Natural changes such as sea storms occur less frequently but could result in large scale destruction over shorter periods. Examples of these are mouth closure that result in mangrove mass mortality as well as strong floods which destroy forest by scouring of the banks.

Objective – Some of the most vulnerable children and youths in our country are those in out of home care, and these children demonstrate higher rates of psychopathology and fare more poorly in school and in social relationships than their peers. Typically, when studying at risk populations, negative outcomes are examined, thereby ignoring those who do well despite their vulnerability. These children, who demonstrate positive patterns of functioning and development despite their exposure to adversity, are considered resilient. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with a resilient outcome among children and youths in out of home care. Method – The study sample was comprised of 417 children 10 to 15 years old in Ontario who had been removed from their homes of origin and placed in out of home care. Predictor variables were selected based on previous research findings in the area of resilient outcome. In the cross-sectional study, a series of sequential logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with a resilient outcome among children in out of home care. These children were then followed one year later. In the longitudinal study, another series of sequential logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables that were related to future resilient outcomes among the same children in out of home care. Results – The findings showed that many of the independent variables predicted resilient outcome on the different dimensions. Furthermore, overall resilient outcome was best predicted by the foster parental report of high sociability. Conclusion – The findings in the present study confirmed that there exists a subset of resilient children among children in out of home care. The findings allowed for the identification of some factors related to resilient outcome among this population. The practical implications of these findings are discussed.

These two mixed method studies are among the first to focus on resilience among Canadian Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, and Inuit) youth living in out-of-home care. The first study was quantitative and consisted of cross-sectional and longitudinal components. For the cross-sectional investigation, the participants consisted of 510 First Nations (237 females, 273 males aged 10-16 years), 39 Métis (15 females, 24 males aged 10-16 years), and 10 Inuit young people (2 females, 8 males aged 10-16 years) who were drawn from an ongoing study of young people in out-of-home care in Ontario collected during 2007-2008. The second Canadian adaptation of the Assessment and Action Record (AAR-C2-2006; Flynn, Ghazal, & Legault, 2006) from the ongoing Ontario Looking After Children (OnLAC) project was used to collect data. The criterion variables were the young person’s self-esteem, score on a suicidality index, educational performance, pro-social behaviour, and positive emotional and behavioural development. The predictor variables included the young person’s gender, ethnicity, age, behavioural difficulties, cognitive impairments, attainment of LAC goals, and number of developmental assets. The longitudinal investigation used the same design as study one, but examined the OnLAC data for year eight (2008-2009) in following 260 young people from the sample in study one. The second study was qualitative and involved interviewing 21 First Nations children and adolescents residing in out-of-home care in northern Ontario to obtain their views about resilience and the factors related to the presence or absence of resilient outcomes. The results provided some support for the hypothesis, in that a greater number of developmental assets were related to more positive outcomes on four of the five criterion variables. The results of the focus groups and in-depth interviews suggested that family members, members of the community (coaches), teachers, and child welfare workers, all play important roles in fostering the youths’ success.

Disasters such as the recent parliament shooting in Ottawa, Superstorm Sandy, and the Great Japan Sea Earthquake and tsunami are reminders of the roles essential service organizations have in maintaining public health. On a daily basis, organizations are expected to operate under normal conditions, providing goods, services, and community supports. In crisis situations, it is critical that these organizations continue to operate and contribute to adaptive response and recovery in a community. Business continuity planning focuses on ensuring continued functioning of core operations during a disruption. Inherent to the business continuity field is a prevent-and-protect approach to preparedness activities. Asset-mapping exercises have the potential to balance the predominantly risk-based field by focusing on the strengths and capabilities already present within an organization. To understand the value of asset-mapping activities in business continuity plans (BCPs), indicators for organizational resilience are needed. Indicators have the potential to provide essential service organizations with a way to gauge the value of their BCP activities. In addition, this information can help guide decision-makers when developing BCPs. This research is part of a larger project at the University of Ottawa focused on building the empirical evidence base for BCPs and organizational resilience. This thesis, as a sub-study within the larger project, explores assets and indicators for organizational resilience to contribute to the effective evaluation and engagement of organizations in business continuity planning efforts. Emergent themes highlight the importance of assets and their contribution to the adaptive capacity of an organization in the event of a disaster. This study also provides an example list of 28 SMARTT organizational resilience indicators directly derived from organizational assets, providing information that researchers and essential service organizations can use to evaluate business continuity planning activities in relation to organizational resilience.