With the world’s population set to reach 9 billion by the mid 21st century food security has never been more important. Increased competition regarding land for agricultural use and over fished seas means it falls to aquaculture to meet the global demands for protein requirements. The largest supply of aquaculture products are cultivated in South East Asia where the industry has seen rapid expansion, particularly of pond production in the past 50 years. This initial expansion has come at a cost with mangrove losses and eutrophication of natural water sources resulting. The impact of these not only affects other stakeholders, including domestic users, but effects will be felt by the aquaculture industry. Indiscriminate release of effluents to the surrounding water reduces the water quality for other users and may impact on the farm discharging the water originally. Poor water quality can then result in poor growth rates and increased mortalities reducing the profitability of the farm and endangering the livelihood of the farmer. If aquaculture is to meet the global food demand it is important that current and future enterprises are developed with sustainability at the fore front. This study investigates the nutrient dynamics in pond culture in South East Asia, focussing initially on four countries outlined by the SEAT (Sustainable Ethical Aquaculture Trade) project, including Thailand, Vietnam, China and Bangladesh. Within the four countries the main species cultured for export were identified resulting in tilapia, shrimp, pangasiid catfish and prawn. Following a farmer survey designed to collect a large volume of data over a range of topics including, water management, social, economic and ethical perceptions, dynamic models were developed, using Powersim Studio 8© (Powersim, Norway), for a generic fish and shrimp ponds separately. The models draw on data from the survey combined with other literature sources to provide outputs for Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus in water and sediment as well as dissolved oxygen in the pond water. One of the biggest challenges facing this study was the objective selection of relevant sites for case studies to apply the models to. With such a large preselected set of sites (200 per species per country) it was important that the method be capable of handling such large datasets. Thusly it was decided that a multivariate method be used due to the removal of any pre judgement of the data relevant to the study. In order to investigate the nutrient dynamics water management data was used in the multivariate analysis to identify any similarity between the practices occurring on farms. The case studies in this project focus on Thailand and Vietnam, covering tilapia, shrimp and pangasius. Prawn farms were disregarded as, through the survey, it was discovered most production was for domestic trade. The models were adapted to each farm case study expanding the boundary from pond level to farm level, providing an output for each pond in terms of nutrients in the water and production levels and the farm as a whole for dissolved oxygen and sediment accumulation. The results of the models suggest the culture species to be taking up much of the TN added followed by the accumulation in sediments in shrimp ponds, while TP is mostly taken up by sediments. The fish case studies suggest that most of the TN is discharged to the environment followed by uptake. While Total phosphorus shows similar results to shrimp, accumulating in the sediment. The models presented in this study can be used to estimate outputs from farms of similar water management strategies and can assist in the determination of where improvements can be made to reduce the potential for eutrophication of natural water sources.

Land, water and natural resources are under increasing pressure due to rising demands for food and energy from the rapidly growing global population. Across a catchment there can be multiple stakeholders with conflicting opinions over how space and resources should be used and managed. Consequently, it is important to consider the suitability of a catchment for a particular purpose to optimise use of the area and minimise potential conflicts and impacts on the wider environment. Aquaculture is a significant contributor to world food supply and as fisheries are unlikely to increase it is expected that the industry will continue to grow and expand in the future to help meet food security requirements. As a result, it is essential that the sector aims for sustainable development within the most suitable locations. However, it can be difficult to assess the suitability of multiple large catchments and some issues may not be immediately apparent. This project aimed to show how spatial models could be used as decision support tools to evaluate the suitability of large catchments for sustainable aquaculture. Four large areas of importance to aquaculture were selected; covering 10,148km2, 26,225km2, 48,319km2 and 66,283km2 in Bangladesh, China, Thailand and Vietnam respectively. Asia is by far the most dominant aquaculture region in the world and each of the four study areas contribute to local, regional and global food supplies. The study area in Bangladesh was located in Khulna region in the south west of the country and the main species of focus were prawn and shrimp. The Chinese study area was located in the south eastern province of Guangdong and the main species covered were tilapia and shrimp. Similarly, in Thailand, the main species evaluated were tilapia and shrimp whilst the study area extended across the Central region. Finally, the largest study area was the Mekong Delta in Vietnam and the main species of focus in this area were pangasius catfish and shrimp. One of the challenges in modelling large catchments is model applicability and data availability. Often, the required data are not available (or accessible) and it would be difficult, time consuming and expensive to collect new information. Furthermore, when assessing multiple areas is it vital that a representative and unbiased approach is used where no one catchment is favoured over the other due to higher quality data. Therefore, this study used data that are available for almost any area in the world; allowing future application of the models and enabling effective and unbiased decision support. Four modelling stages were employed in this study to evaluate the suitability of large catchments for sustainable aquaculture development. The first stage was the classification of seasonal land use models from satellite imagery. This provides information on what the land is used for and how aquaculture could impact or be impacted by the wider environment. The second step was the development of seasonal models of site suitability using optimal values within a GIS-based multi-stage framework. These models identify which locations are best for culture and can also be used to estimate the availability of areas for food production. The next stage investigated the use of Maxent as a novel approach in site suitability modelling to evaluate the conditions experienced by existing farms. The information from Maxent can be used to identify trends, opportunities and concerns related to sustainable management and farm locations. Finally, qualitative models of non-point source pollution (NPSP) were developed which assess the risk of NPSP within a catchment. NPSP is an issue which can impact both aquaculture and the wider environment. Thus, it is important to understand the areas within a catchment where NPSP risk is higher enabling the establishment of monitoring and/or mitigation procedures. The models support the ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA) and enable objective planning and management strategies to enhance productivity across large catchments without negatively impacting the environment. In order to meet growing food requirements, large areas will need to be used for agriculture and aquaculture; therefore, analysis at a wider catchment level, which complements assessment at a local scale, is required as it allows a holistic view of the situation. The work presented here illustrates the potential use of spatial models across large catchments and considers the suitability of the areas for aquaculture development.

Using a bioeconomic model and stochastic simulation to assess the economic viability of small-scale, recirculating shrimp farms in the Midwestern U.S. A series of stress tests were implemented on key input variables including survival rate, selling price, electricity usage, discount rate and the cost of added salt. The key output variable is the Net Present Value of the operation. <div><br></div><div><br></div>