Study Supervisor: Dr Jan Kruger Year submitted: 2008 / Companies must be able to adapt and evolve if they wish to survive in the highly competitive marketplace today. Businesses operate with the knowledge that their competitors will inevitably come to the market with a product that changes the basis of competition. The ability to change and adapt therefore is essential to survival. Changes in the technological landscape enable a number of new opportunities to be opened up in the marketplace. There is no need to emphasize the role of Information Technology (IT) in such endeavors. However, great uncertainties surround the IT project landscape where unpredictability of costs as well as quantification of benefits remaining prominent. Although NPV is often used as the de facto standard for IT investment appraisal, calculating the confidence levels of the inputs thereto or the output thereof is not attempted as often as desired. The purpose of this study was to determine how to perform better Net Present Value (NPV) approximations by improving the accuracy of input values thereto, in order to make informed business decisions. The study focuses on finding a practical solution to the above problem than a purist approach towards developing a theory.

Study Supervisor: Dr Jan Kruger Year submitted: 2008 / Companies must be able to adapt and evolve if they wish to survive in the highly competitive marketplace today. Businesses operate with the knowledge that their competitors will inevitably come to the market with a product that changes the basis of competition. The ability to change and adapt therefore is essential to survival. Changes in the technological landscape enable a number of new opportunities to be opened up in the marketplace. There is no need to emphasize the role of Information Technology (IT) in such endeavors. However, great uncertainties surround the IT project landscape where unpredictability of costs as well as quantification of benefits remaining prominent. Although NPV is often used as the de facto standard for IT investment appraisal, calculating the confidence levels of the inputs thereto or the output thereof is not attempted as often as desired. The purpose of this study was to determine how to perform better Net Present Value (NPV) approximations by improving the accuracy of input values thereto, in order to make informed business decisions. The study focuses on finding a practical solution to the above problem than a purist approach towards developing a theory.

Submitted by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2016-01-05T14:00:08Z No. of bitstreams: 2 victor_hugo_duarte_costa.pdf: 749112 bytes, checksum: 673a3fb7e223fa45ab64a0cf8798bedf (MD5) license_rdf: 22974 bytes, checksum: 99c771d9f0b9c46790009b9874d49253 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2016-01-05T18:02:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 victor_hugo_duarte_costa.pdf: 749112 bytes, checksum: 673a3fb7e223fa45ab64a0cf8798bedf (MD5) license_rdf: 22974 bytes, checksum: 99c771d9f0b9c46790009b9874d49253 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-05T18:02:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 victor_hugo_duarte_costa.pdf: 749112 bytes, checksum: 673a3fb7e223fa45ab64a0cf8798bedf (MD5) license_rdf: 22974 bytes, checksum: 99c771d9f0b9c46790009b9874d49253 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Funda??o de Amparo ? Pesquisa do estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (Capes) / Lagartas da esp?cie Helicoverpa armigera foram identificadas no Brasil atacando extensas ?reas de produ??o agr?cola. Algumas caracter?sticas fazem deste inseto uma das principais pragas a sistemas agr?colas do mundo, o que torna este ataque um perigo eminente ?s ?reas de produ??o do pa?s. Estudos com os insetos coletados nestas ?reas s?o essenciais para que seja desenvolvido um manejo adequado. Estudos de laborat?rio podem selecionar poss?veis pr?ticas de manejo a fim de combater surtos de pragas no campo. Uma das formas de manejar o ambiente de forma segura ? adotar o Manejo Integrado de Pragas, onde se destaca o controle biol?gico utilizando baculov?rus. A lagarta de H. armigera ? suscept?vel a estirpes de baculov?rus, por?m ? necess?rio verificar esta suscetibilidade. Sendo assim, os objetivos deste trabalho foram selecionar estirpes aut?ctones de baculov?rus t?xicas as lagartas desta esp?cie. Foram realizados testes gen?ticos e biol?gicos entre as estirpes aut?ctones, comparando-as com o produto comercial Gemstar?, de origem norte americana. A an?lise comparativa do sequenciamento gen?tico realizada para os genes LEF-8 e LEF-9 revelaram que os isolados locais est?o, estreitamente, relacionados com esp?cies de baculov?rus da Austr?lia e da ?ndia. Todos os isolados testados possibilitaram o controle de lagartas de terceiro instar de H. armigera. Por?m, analises biol?gicas da concentra??o letal m?dia (CL50) e do tempo letal m?dio (TL50) variaram entre os isolados testados. O isolado HearNPV-BR2 apresentou os melhores resultados de CL50 e TL50. Ademais, este ? o primeiro registro da ocorr?ncia da esp?cie HearNPV-BR2 no Brasil, e suas propriedades inseticidas assinalam que a mesma pode ser ?til para a fabrica??o de bioinseticidas para o controle de H. armigera no pa?s. / Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Produ??o Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2015. / ABSTRACT Larvea of Helicoverpa armigera species were identified in Brazil attacking extensive agricultural production areas. Some features make this one of the main insect pests in agricultural systems in the world, which makes this attack an imminent danger to agricultural production in the country. Studies with insects collected in these areas are essential for developed proper management. Laboratory studies can select possible management practices to combat pest outbreaks in the field. One way to manage the secure environment is to adopt the Integrated Pest Management, highlighting the biological control using baculovirus. The H. armigera larvea is susceptible to strains of baculovirus but it is necessary check this susceptibility. Therefore the objectives of this work were to select indigenous strains of toxic baculovirus larvea of this species. Genetic and biological tests were carried out between indigenous strains, comparing them with the commercial product Gemstar?, origin from North American (USA). Comparative analysis of genetic sequencing performed for the LEF-8 and LEF-9 genes, revealed that indigenous strains are closely related to species of baculovirus of the Australia and India. All strains tested allowed control of the third instar of the H. armigera larvea. However, biological analysis of median lethal concentration (LC 50) and median lethal time (LT50) varied among the strains tested. The HearNPV-BR2 strain showed the best results of CL50 and TL50. Moreover, this is the first record of the occurrence of HearNPV-BR2 species in Brazil and its insecticidal properties indicate that BR2 may be useful for the manufacture of biological insecticides for H. armigera control in the country.

No description available.

Gas Turbines (GTs) are used extensively in pipelines to compress gas at suitable points. The primary objective of this study is to look at CO2 return pipelines and the close coupling of the compression system with advanced prime mover cycles. Adopting a techno-economic and environmental risk analysis (TERA) frame work, this study conducts the modelling and evaluation of CO2 compression power requirements for gas turbine driven equipment (pump and compressor). The author developed and validated subroutines to implement variable stators in an in-house GT simulation code known as Variflow in order to enhance the off-design performance simulation of the code. This modification was achieved by altering the existing compressor maps and main program algorithm of the code. Economic model based on the net present value (NPV) method, CO2 compressibility factor model based on the Peng-Robinson equation of state and pipeline hydraulic analysis model based on fundamental gas flow equation were also developed to facilitate the TERA of selected GT mechanical drives in two case scenarios. These case scenarios were specifically built around Turbomatch simulated GT design and off-design performance which ensure that the CO2 is introduced into the pipeline at the supercritical pressure as well as sustain the CO2 pressure above a minimum designated pressure during transmission along an adapted real life pipeline profile. The required compression duty for the maximum and minimum CO2 throughput as well as the operation site ambient condition, guided the selection of two GTs of 33.9 MW and 9.4 MW capacities. At the site ambient condition, the off design simulations of these GTs give an output of 25.9 MW and 7.6 MW respectively. Given the assumed economic parameters over a plant life of 25 years, the NPV for deploying the 33.9 MW GT is about £13.9M while that of the 9.4 MW GT is about £1.2M. The corresponding payback periods (PBPs) were 3 and 7 years respectively. Thus, a good return on investment is achieved within reasonable risk. The sensitivity analysis results show a NPV of about £19.1M - £24.3M and about £3.1M - £4.9M for the 33.9 MW and 9.4 MW GTs respectively over a 25 - 50% fuel cost reduction. Their PBPs were 3 - 2 years and 5 - 4 years respectively. In addition, as the CO2 throughput drops, the risk becomes higher with less return on investment. In fact, when the CO2 throughput drops to a certain level, the investment becomes highly unattractive and unable to payback itself within the assumed 25 years plant life. The hydraulic analysis results for three different pipe sizes of 24, 14 and 12¾ inch diameters show an increase in pressure drop with increase in CO2 throughput and a decrease in pressure drop with increase in pipe size for a given throughput. Owing to the effect of elevation difference, the 511 km long pipeline profile gives rise to an equivalent length of 511.52 km. Similarly, given the pipeline inlet pressure of 15 MPa and other assumed pipeline data, the 3.70 MTPY (0.27 mmscfd) maximum average CO2 throughput considered in the 12¾ inch diameter pipeline results in a delivery pressure of about 15.06 MPa. Under this condition, points of pressure spikes above the pipeline maximum operating allowable pressure (15.3 MPa) were obtained along the profile. Lowering the pipeline operating pressure to 10.5 MPa gives a delivery pressure of about 10.45 MPa within safe pressure limits. At this 10.5 MPa, over a flat pipeline profile of same length, the delivery pressure is about 10.4 MPa. Thus, given the operating conditions for the dense phase CO2 pipeline transmission and the limit of this study, it is very unlikely that a booster station will be required. So also, compressing the CO2 to 15 MPa may no longer be necessary; which eliminates the need of combining a compressor and pump for the initial pressure boost in order to save power. This is because, irrespective of the saving in energy, the increase in capital cost associated with obtaining a pump and suitable driver far outweighs the extra expense incurred in acquiring a rated GT mechanical drive to meet the compression duty.

Os métodos determinísticos utilizados para avaliação econômico-financeira de projetos de investimentos, como o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR), contemplam exatidão do comportamento futuro das variáveis inerentes ao projeto. Porém, as imprevisibilidades futuras acrescidas da alta volatilidade da economia e tecnologia mundial tornam as análises determinísticas frágeis em situações onde existam incertezas, o que pode levar gestores e investidores a tomar decisões equivocadas quanto à alocação de capital. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo geral a comparação entre dois métodos que podem ser utilizados para avaliação de investimentos que abordam a condição de incerteza. O método de Monte Carlo, em seu caráter estatístico, permite que as variáveis presentes sejam consideradas por meio de distribuições de probabilidade, as quais associadas a geração de números aleatórios fornecem uma resposta que considera as incertezas presentes. O Valor Presente Líquido fuzzy constitui-se em um método alternativo para análise, o qual considera as variáveis incertas como números nebulosos, ou seja, concepções matemáticas que não apresentam fronteiras rígidas. Por meio da aplicação dos métodos em uma situação real de investimento, buscou-se realizar uma análise comparativa, que levasse em conta os resultados numéricos obtidos e a conceituação teórica envolvida. / The deterministic methods used for economical and financial evaluation of investments projects, such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate Return (IRR) consider the future comportment of the project variables as exact values. Nevertheless, the future unpredictability and the high volatility of world economy and technology make fragile the deterministic analysis under situations that uncertainty is present, what may lead managers and investors to take bad decisions about capital allocation. The main objective of this assignment is two compare two different methods used to evaluate investments under uncertainty. The Monte Carlo method is its statistical character, allows to associate probability distributions with random numbers and this application provides that includes uncertainty. The fuzzy Net Present Value is an alternative method to analyze investments, which consider uncertainty variable as fuzzy numbers, i.e., mathematics conceptions that do not present absolute borders. Two different kinds of comparisons were produced by applications of both methods in a real investment situation: the first was developed based on numeric analysis; the second is based on a theory that involves those methods.

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Os métodos determinísticos utilizados para avaliação econômico-financeira de projetos de investimentos, como o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR), contemplam exatidão do comportamento futuro das variáveis inerentes ao projeto. Porém, as imprevisibilidades futuras acrescidas da alta volatilidade da economia e tecnologia mundial tornam as análises determinísticas frágeis em situações onde existam incertezas, o que pode levar gestores e investidores a tomar decisões equivocadas quanto à alocação de capital. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo geral a comparação entre dois métodos que podem ser utilizados para avaliação de investimentos que abordam a condição de incerteza. O método de Monte Carlo, em seu caráter estatístico, permite que as variáveis presentes sejam consideradas por meio de distribuições de probabilidade, as quais associadas a geração de números aleatórios fornecem uma resposta que considera as incertezas presentes. O Valor Presente Líquido fuzzy constitui-se em um método alternativo para análise, o qual considera as variáveis incertas como números nebulosos, ou seja, concepções matemáticas que não apresentam fronteiras rígidas. Por meio da aplicação dos métodos em uma situação real de investimento, buscou-se realizar uma análise comparativa, que levasse em conta os resultados numéricos obtidos e a conceituação teórica envolvida. / The deterministic methods used for economical and financial evaluation of investments projects, such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate Return (IRR) consider the future comportment of the project variables as exact values. Nevertheless, the future unpredictability and the high volatility of world economy and technology make fragile the deterministic analysis under situations that uncertainty is present, what may lead managers and investors to take bad decisions about capital allocation. The main objective of this assignment is two compare two different methods used to evaluate investments under uncertainty. The Monte Carlo method is its statistical character, allows to associate probability distributions with random numbers and this application provides that includes uncertainty. The fuzzy Net Present Value is an alternative method to analyze investments, which consider uncertainty variable as fuzzy numbers, i.e., mathematics conceptions that do not present absolute borders. Two different kinds of comparisons were produced by applications of both methods in a real investment situation: the first was developed based on numeric analysis; the second is based on a theory that involves those methods.

Práce je feasibility studií projektu. Jejím cílem je shromáždit relevantní informace o trhu, technických podmínkách projektu a vyhodnotit její efektivnost z ekonomického hlediska.Zároveň by měla zhodnotit rizika projektu.