Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:50:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 4315083 bytes, checksum: f74f2bdc5700e60faa4a138205cf307f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-25 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is able to influence the atmospheric circulation and consequently changes weather patterns in both local and global scale. This study aimed to understand how temperature and precipitation in South America respond to modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Dipole (AD), for current and future conditions, considering an extreme emission scenario of GreenHouse effect (GHG). We used four models as part of coupled model of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change/Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR5), intercomparison project, Phase 5 (CMIP5): MRI (Meteorology Research Institute, Japan), INM (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia), NCC (Norwegian Climate Center, Norway) and ECHAM / MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany). The results have shown that the dominant patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, are respectively the ENSO and Dipole Atlantic which were better simulated by the models MPI and NCC (INM and MRI) and proved satisfactory (unsatisfactory) and able (unable) to reproduce the response of precipitation and temperature in relation to observed climate over the South America. For future conditions it has been found more intense episodes of ENSO, while for AD the inter-hemispheric gradients is more intense. Furthermore, it is projected that this pattern, known as the negative phase of AD, may significantly influence the atmospheric circulation and alter the patterns of temperature and precipitation in South America. / A Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) é capaz de influenciar na circulação atmosférica e consequentemente alterar os padrões climáticos tanto em escala local quanto global. Este trabalho buscou entender como a temperatura e precipitação na América do Sul respondem em função dos modos de variabilidade climática El Niño Oscilação-Sul (ENSO) e Dipolo do Atlântico (DA), para as condições atuais e futuras, considerando um cenário extremo de emissão de Gases de Efeito Estuda (GEE). Foram utilizados quatro modelos climáticos acoplados do Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change/Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR5), pertencentes ao Projeto de Intercomparação de Modelos Acoplados, Fase 5 (CMIP5): MRI (Meteorology Research Institute, Japão), INM (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Rússia), NCC (Norwegian Climate Center, Noruega) e ECHAM/MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Alemanha). Os resultados mostraram que os padrões dominantes nos Oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico, são respectivamente o ENSO e Dipolo do Atlântico e foram melhor reproduzidos pelos modelos MPI e NCC (INM e MRI) e se mostraram satisfatórios (insatisfatórios) e capazes (incapazes) de reproduzir a resposta da precipitação e temperatura, em relação ao clima observado sobre a AS. Para condições futuras têm-se episódios de ENSO mais intensos, enquanto que para configurações do tipo DA notam-se gradientes inter-hemisféricos mais intensos, onde se observou TSM's mais baixas no Atlântico Norte. Além disso, projeta-se que este padrão, conhecido como fase negativa do DA, poderá influenciar significativamente na circulação atmosférica e alterar os padrões de temperatura e precipitação na AS.

Global climate change is anticipated to raise the overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. China, a rapid developing nation with the world’s largest population, has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past century, with an annual increase in air temperature by 0.5–0.8°C. While increasing evidence is suggesting that climate change has posed significant health risks to Chinese population, including heat-related mortality, the extent to which climate change will affect future mortality and the sources of uncertainty in projecting prospective changes in mortality remain unexplored. This working-in-progress study aims at estimating excess future premature deaths in large urban areas in China resulting from potential increases in temperature under climate change and investigating sources of uncertainty. We include 51 large Chinese cities in this study, which approximately one third of the total population in China. We use an integrated approach, which combines temperature predictions from climate models, local temperature-mortality relationship and population forecasting, to project the future excess mortality attributed to higher temperature during warm season. The poster presents the results of predicting temperature change during 2040-2050 relative to the baseline period 1950-2000 in the 51 cities selected. We ensemble outputs from 19 climate models used in the IPCC 5th Report, including outputs related to all four AR5 emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5).