This dissertation consists of two essays, in which I examine the effects of incomplete or noisy information on expected risk premium in equity markets. In the first essay I provide empirical evidence demonstrating that an information-quality (IQ) factor, built on accrual-based information precision measure, is priced. This result still stands after controlling for factors, such as size, Book-to-Market (B/M) ratio, and liquidity. To explain this empirical observation, I derive a continuous-time model in the spirit of Merton’s (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to examine how systematic IQ risk affects security returns. Unique to my model, imprecise information influences the pricing of an asset through its covariance with: (i) stock return; (ii) market return; and (iii) market-wide IQ. In equilibrium, the aggregate effect of these covariance terms (proportional to IQ-related betas) represents the systematic component of IQ risk and therefore requires a risk premium to compensate for it. My empirical test confirms that the aggregate effect of systematic IQ risk is significant and robust to the inclusion of other risk sources, such as liquidity risk. In the second essay I extend a recent complete information stock valuation model with incomplete information environment. In practice, mean earnings-per-share growth rate (MEGR) is random and unobservable. Therefore, asset prices should reflect how investors learn about the unobserved state variable. In my model investors learn about MEGR in continuous time. Firm characteristics, such as stronger mean reversion and lower volatility of MEGR, make learning faster and easier. As a result, the magnitude of risk premium due to uncertainty about MEGR declines over learning horizon and converges to a long-term steady level. Due to the stochastic nature of the unobserved state variable, complete learning is impossible (except for cases with perfect correlation between earnings and MEGR). As a result, the risk premium is non-zero at all times reflecting a persistent uncertainty that investors hold in an incomplete information environment.

Previous work by researchers as Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, show that average return on stocks are related to a firms characteristics like size and book-to-market ratio. These kinds of patterns in average return is not explained by The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and are therefore seen as anomalies. Fama and French have proposed a three-factor model, which captures patterns observed in U.S average returns associated with size and value. Since the previous research on this topic is limited in Sweden we find it interesting to study companies listed on the Swedish stock exchange “Nasdaq OMX Stockholm”. This study finds that the average return on Swedish stocks seems to be related to size and value. The two additional variables in the three-factor model help explain the variation on the Swedish stock market for the period 2011-2013.

This dissertation consists of two essays, in which I examine the effects of incomplete or noisy information on expected risk premium in equity markets. In the first essay I provide empirical evidence demonstrating that an information-quality (IQ) factor, built on accrual-based information precision measure, is priced. This result still stands after controlling for factors, such as size, Book-to-Market (B/M) ratio, and liquidity. To explain this empirical observation, I derive a continuous-time model in the spirit of Merton’s (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to examine how systematic IQ risk affects security returns. Unique to my model, imprecise information influences the pricing of an asset through its covariance with: (i) stock return; (ii) market return; and (iii) market-wide IQ. In equilibrium, the aggregate effect of these covariance terms (proportional to IQ-related betas) represents the systematic component of IQ risk and therefore requires a risk premium to compensate for it. My empirical test confirms that the aggregate effect of systematic IQ risk is significant and robust to the inclusion of other risk sources, such as liquidity risk. In the second essay I extend a recent complete information stock valuation model with incomplete information environment. In practice, mean earnings-per-share growth rate (MEGR) is random and unobservable. Therefore, asset prices should reflect how investors learn about the unobserved state variable. In my model investors learn about MEGR in continuous time. Firm characteristics, such as stronger mean reversion and lower volatility of MEGR, make learning faster and easier. As a result, the magnitude of risk premium due to uncertainty about MEGR declines over learning horizon and converges to a long-term steady level. Due to the stochastic nature of the unobserved state variable, complete learning is impossible (except for cases with perfect correlation between earnings and MEGR). As a result, the risk premium is non-zero at all times reflecting a persistent uncertainty that investors hold in an incomplete information environment.

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Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007.

Zugl.: Duisburg, Essen, University, Diplomarbeit, 2004.

Traditional portfolio theory suggests that, in equilibrium, only the market risk is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns. However, if the market is not perfect and investors are constantly changing investing behaviors based on their perceptions about future market outlook, then non-traditional risk factors could potentially provide significant power of describing the expected stock returns. This dissertation has two essays on the pricing of volatility, in which the market is not assumed to be frictionless or perfect. Essay 1 focuses on the pricing of individual volatility in penny stocks. Empirical results show that individual volatility plays an important role in describing the average cross-sectional returns of penny stocks. Resorting to the rolling portfolio approach, evidences indicate that portfolios consisting of penny stocks with high individual volatilities, on average, earned much higher returns than portfolios consisting of penny stocks with low individual volatilities. This effect is statistically significant when multiple factors are controlled simultaneously. Essay 2 focuses on the pricing of the market volatility among individual stocks. Following the rolling portfolio method, Essay 2 constructs portfolios that consist of individual stocks with various market volatility exposures. Traditional risk factors such as market beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum are controlled respectively to obtain more detailed analyses. Empirical results yield a negative pricing of the market volatility and it is more prominent in stocks that have high market beta, small size, and high book-to-market.

No / By assuming that all uninsurable risk is permanent, a closed form multi-period, multiple agent and multiple asset incomplete market asset pricing model is presented that allows for jump as well as diffusion risk to personal income.

Empirical findings on herding behavior among institutional investors suggest that those market participants speed up the price adjustment to new information and as such stabilize stock prices. Other findings indicate the opposite, that institutional herds drive stock prices away from fundamental values, and thus destabilize stock prices. This study examines the effect that Swedish institutional investors have on the stock prices on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. More precisely, we analyze the relationship of institutional herding with future excess stock returns. Major findings from this paper suggest that persistent herding among Swedish institutional investors leads to future long-term return reversals, which to some extent indicates a destabilizing influence at long horizons.

Present value based asset pricing models are explored empirically in this thesis. Three contributions are made. First, it is shown that a market timing strategy may be implemented in an excessively volatile market such as the S&P500. The main premise of the strategy is that asset prices may revert to the present value over time. The present value is computed in real-time where the present value variables (future dividends, dividend growth and the discount factor) are forecast from simple models. The strategy works well for monthly data and when dividends are forecast from autoregressive models. The performance of the strategy relies on how discount rates are empirically defined. When discount rates are defined by the rolling and recursive historic average of realized returns, the strategy performs well. The discount rate and dividend growth can also be derived using a structural approach. Using the Campbell and Shiller log-linearized present value equation, and assuming that expected and realized dividend growth are unit related, a state space model is constructed linking the price-dividend ratio to expected returns and expected dividend growth. The model parameters are estimated from the data and, are used to derive the filtered expected returns and expected dividend growth series. The present value is computed using the filtered series. The trading rule tends to perform worse in this case. Discount rates are again found to be the major determinant of its success. Although the structural approach offers a time series of discount rates which is less volatile, it is on average higher than that of the historical mean model. The filtered expected returns is a potential predictor of realized returns. The predictive performance of expected returns is compared to that of the price-dividend ratio. It is found that expected returns is not superior to the price-dividend ratio in forecasting returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. The predictive regression included both simple Ordinary Least Squares and Vector Autoregressions. The second contribution of this thesis is the modeling of expected returns using autoregressive fractionally integrated processes. According to the work of Granger and Joyeux(1980), aggregated series which are derived from utility maximization problems follow a Beta distribution. In the time series literature, it implies that the series may have a fractional order (I(d)). Autoregressive fractionally models may have better appeal than models which explicitly posit unit roots or no unit roots. Two models are presented. The first model, which incorporates an ARFIMA(p,d,q) within the present value through the state equations, is found to be highly unstable. Small sample size may be a reason for this finding. The second model involves predicting dividend growth from simple OLS models, and sequentially netting expected returns from the present value model. Based on the previous finding that expected returns may be a long memory process, the third contribution of this thesis derives a test of long memory based on the asymptotic properties of the variance of aggregated series in the context of the Geweke Porter-Hudak (1982) semiparametric estimator. The test makes use of the fact that pure long memory process will have the same autocorrelation across observations if the observations are drawn at repeated intervals to make a new series. The test is implemented using the Sieve-AR bootstrap which accommodates long range dependence in stochastic processes. The test is relatively powerful against both linear and nonlinear specifications in large samples.