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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The Generalized Splitting method for Combinatorial Counting and Static Rare-Event Probability Estimation

Zdravko Botev Unknown Date (has links)
This thesis is divided into two parts. In the first part we describe a new Monte Carlo algorithm for the consistent and unbiased estimation of multidimensional integrals and the efficient sampling from multidimensional densities. The algorithm is inspired by the classical splitting method and can be applied to general static simulation models. We provide examples from rare-event probability estimation, counting, optimization, and sampling, demonstrating that the proposed method can outperform existing Markov chain sampling methods in terms of convergence speed and accuracy. In the second part we present a new adaptive kernel density estimator based on linear diffusion processes. The proposed estimator builds on existing ideas for adaptive smoothing by incorporating information from a pilot density estimate. In addition, we propose a new plug-in bandwidth selection method that is free from the arbitrary normal reference rules used by existing methods. We present simulation examples in which the proposed approach outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability.

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