In this thesis, the terms of trade changes in Turkey since 1970 are analyzed. In the 1970s, Turkey faced strong terms of trade declines mainly due to two oil price shocks. Rapid diversification of Turkish exports into manufactures was instrumental in avoiding further declines in its terms of trade in the 1980s. However, the slow pace of the diversification into more skill- and technology-intensive manufactures in Turkey combined with the fallacy of composition problem in low-tech, labourintensive manufactures may pose a real danger to the prices of its exports. To the extent that in the long-term, the changes in terms of trade of a country are determined by the level of technology embodied in its exports, the concentration of Turkish exports in low-tech, labour-intensive manufactures may highlight the need for upgrading exports and establishing backward- and forward-linkages between industries to escape from the trap of terms of trade deterioration in the long-term.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LEZCANO_Johana_2012.pdf: 2309738 bytes, checksum: 11df8e32f791d510c3d6c02634d5fccc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-12 / This dissertation aims to analyze the long-term economic growth of member countries of Mercosur, making use of the Keynesian approach to growth under external constraint. In this context, we seek to test, empirically, the validity of Thirlwall's Law, in traditional and extended formulations, to Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, between 1980-2008. Were employed econometric techniques of cointegration, in order to measure the income and price elasticities of demand for imports of these economies, individually. Furthermore, statistical tests were used to compare estimates of product to actual data. Thus, we intend to provide a better understanding of the role of restrictions arising from the Balance of Payments, on the long-term trajectory of growth of nations of the bloc. The results indicate the validity of Thirlwall s Law, over the period analyzed, arguing that the growth of the economies in question was restricted by the balance of the external sector. / A presente dissertação visa analisar o crescimento econômico de longo prazo dos países membros do Mercosul, valendo-se da abordagem keynesiana de crescimento sob restrição externa. Nesse contexto, busca-se testar, empiricamente, a validade da Lei de Thirlwall, nas formulações tradicional e estendidas, para a Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai, entre 1980-2008. Para tal, foram empregadas técnicas econométricas de cointegração, com o intuito de mensurar as elasticidades-renda e preço da demanda por importações dessas economias, individualmente. Além disso, foram utilizados testes estatísticos para comparar estimativas de produto a dados reais. Desta maneira, pretende-se proporcionar um melhor entendimento do papel desempenhado pelas restrições decorrentes do Balanço de Pagamentos, sobre a trajetória de crescimento, de longo prazo, das nações do bloco. Os resultados encontrados apontam para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall, ao longo do período analisado, sustentando que o crescimento das economias em questão foi restrito pelo equilíbrio do setor externo.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:34:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AndreiLS_DISSERT.pdf: 1080738 bytes, checksum: 0e789761c9337cdeb73ac492e8a471a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-29 / This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Louren?o et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study / Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a influ?ncia da restri??o externa sobre o crescimento econ?mico brasileiro no per?odo de 1991 a 2010. Com este intuito, s?o apresentados alguns dos principais modelos keynesianos de crescimento restringido pela balan?a de pagamentos, inspirados por Thirlwall (1979) e Kaldor (1970), os quais s?o sustentados por importantes pontos em comum, como a ades?o ao princ?pio da demanda efetiva. Tendo em vista que, no ?mbito desta linha te?rica, n?o h? consenso sobre a modelagem que melhor explique a taxa de crescimento permitida pela restri??o externa, s?o apresentados os resultados encontrados por parte representativa da literatura emp?rica que trata do tema, que se faz necess?rio para um melhor entendimento do caso brasileiro. A partir da estima??o da elasticidade-renda das importa??es (0,85) atrav?s de vetores autorregressivos com corre??o de erros (VEC), foram calculadas cinco taxas de crescimento da renda, conforme previsto pelos modelos de Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall e Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998; 2003) e Louren?o et al. (2011) e comparou-as com a taxa de crescimento efetiva. A an?lise emp?rica permitiu verificar que: n?o se pode rejeitar a presen?a de restri??o externa na economia brasileira; h? forte similaridade nas taxas de crescimento previstas pelos diferentes modelagens que prop?em o crescimento com restri??o externa. Al?m disso, ao se utilizar s?ries trimestrais para o per?odo p?s-1990, n?o existem fatores capazes de provocar instabilidade nos par?metros da fun??o de importa??o (elasticidade-renda e elasticidade-pre?o das importa??es) dentro do per?odo, o que indica que a quebra estrutural amplamente associada ao ano de 1994 n?o foi confirmada para o per?odo de an?lise deste estudo