Aortic Valve Analysis and Area Prediction using Bayesian Modeling Miheer S. Ghotikar ABSTRACT Aortic valve stenosis affects approximately 5 out of every 10,000 people in the United States. [3] This disorder causes decrease in the aortic valve opening area increasing resistance to blood flow. Detection of early stages of valve malfunction is an important area of research to enable new treatments and develop strategies in order to delay degenerative progression. Analysis of relationship between valve properties and hemodynamic factors is critical to develop and validate these strategies. Porcine aortic valves are anatomically analogous to human aortic valves. Fixation agents modify the valves in such a manner to mimic increased leaflet stiffness due to early degeneration. In this study, porcine valves treated with glutaraldehyde, a cross-linking agent and ethanol, a dehydrating agent were used to alter leaflet material properties. The hydraulic performance of ethanol and glutaraldehyde treated valves was compared to fresh valves using a programmable pulse duplicator that could simulate physiological conditions. Hydraulic conditions in the pulse duplicator were modified by varying mean flow rate and mean arterial pressure. Pressure drops across the aortic valve, flow rate and back pressure (mean arterial pressure) values were recorded at successive instants of time. Corresponding values of pressure gradient were measured, while aortic valve opening area was obtained from photographic data. Effects of glutaradehyde cross-linking and ethanol dehydration on the aortic valve area for different hydraulic conditions that emulated hemodynamic physiological conditions were analyzed and it was observed that glutaradehyde and ethanol fixation causes changes in aortic valve opening and closing patterns. Next, relations between material properties, experimental conditions, and hydraulic measures of valve performance were studied using a Bayesian model approach. The primary hypothesis tested in this study was that a Bayesian network could be used to predict dynamic changes in the aortic valve area given the hemodynamic conditions. A Bayesian network encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest, also representing causal relationships between temporal antecedents and outcomes. A Learning Bayesian Network was constructed; direct acyclic graphs were drawn in GeNIe 2.0ʾ using an information theory dependency algorithm. Mutual Information was calculated between every set of parameters. Conditional probability tables and cut-sets were obtained from the data with the use of Matlabʾ. A Bayesian model was built for predicting dynamic values of opening and closing area for fresh, ethanol fixed and glutaradehyde fixed aortic valves for a set of hemodynamic conditions. Separate models were made for opening and closing cycles. The models predicted aortic valve area for fresh, ethanol fixed and glutaraldehyde fixed valves. As per the results obtained from the model, it can be concluded that the Bayesian network works successfully with the performance of porcine valves in a pulse duplicator. Further work would include building the Bayesian network with additional parameters and patient data for predicting aortic valve area of patients with progressive stenosis. The important feature would be to predict valve degenration based on valve opening or closing pattern.

The agriculture sectors in Canada are highly vulnerable to a wide range of inter-related weather risks linked to seasonal climate variability (e.g., El Ni ̃no Southern Oscillation(ENSO)), short-term extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves), and emergent disease(e.g., grape powdery mildew). All of these weather-related risks can cause severe crop losses to agricultural crop yield and crop quality as Canada grows a wide range of farm products, and the changing weather conditions mainly drive farming practices. This dissertation presents three machine learning-based statistical models to assess the weather risks on the Canadian agriculture regions and to provide reliable risk forecasting to improve the decision-making of Canadian agricultural producers in farming practices. The first study presents a multi-scale, cluster-based Principal Component Analysis(PCA) approach to assess the potential seasonal impacts of ENSO to spring wheat and barley on agricultural census regions across the Canada prairies areas. Model prediction skills for annual wheat and barley yield have examined in multi-scale from spatial cluster approaches. The ’best’ spatial models were used to define spatial patterns of ENSO forcing on wheat and barley yields. The model comparison of our spatial model to non-spatial models shows spatial clustering and ENSO forcing have increase model performance of prediction skills in forecasting future cereal crop production. The second study presents a copula-Bayesian network approach to assess the impact of extreme high-temperature events (heatwave events) on the developments of regional crops across the Canada agricultural regions at the eco-district-scale. Relevantweather variables and heatwave variables during heatwave periods have identified and used as input variables for model learning. Both a copula-Bayesian network and Gaussian-based network modeling approach is evaluated and inter-compared. The copula approach based on ’vine copulas’ generated the most accurate predictions of heatwave occurrence as a driver of crop heat stress. The last study presents a stochastic, hybrid-Bayesian machine-learning approach to explore the complex causal relationships between weather, pathogen, and host for grape powdery mildew in an experimental farm in Quebec, Canada. This study explores a high-performance network model for daily disease risk forecast by using estimated development factors of pathogen and host from recorded daily weather variables. A fungicide strategy for disease control has presented by using the model outputs and forecasted future weather variability. The dissertation findings are beneficial to Canada’s agricultural sector. The inter-related weather risks explored by the three separate studies in multi-scales provide a better understanding of the interactions between changing weather conditions, extreme weather, and crop production. The research showcases new insights, methods, and tools for minimizing risk in agricultural decision-making / Graduate / 2021-08-19