The food vs. fuel debate has heated up since the 2008 global food crisis when major crop prices dramatically increased. Heavily subsidized biofuel production was blamed for diverting food crops from food production and diverting resources from food and feed production, triggering a food crisis globally and leading to increases in the world food insecure population. Few studies have quantified the effects of biofuel policies on world food prices and world food insecurity. This study added the Brazil and China's biofuel sectors to an existing global trade CGE model, and applies the measurement of food insecurity as developed by FAO. Alternative scenarios were food insecurity. Results are examined with focus on (1) effects on domestic biofuel productions, (2) change in food commodity productions and trade, (3) change in land use and land rents, and (4) change in regional undernourished populations. Results indicated that biofuel expansion is not cost competitive to traditional fossil fuel. Without any policy incentives, huge expansion of biofuel production is not likely under current technology. The conventional biofuel mandates in U.S., Brazil and China lead to increases in world food insecurity, while the advanced biofuel mandate in U.S. has the opposite effect. Subsidies to biofuels production help to lessen the increase in world food insecurity that is caused by increases in conventional biofuel production. Additionally, the effects from U.S. biofuel policies are smaller but more widespread than the effects from Brazil or China's biofuel policies. Overall, the long term effects of biofuel production expansion on world food insecurity are much smaller than expected.

Esta dissertação apresenta uma análise comparativa dos aspectos sociais e econômicos decorrentes da produção dos biocombustíveis, etanol e biodiesel, nos principais países produtores e consumidores da atualidade Brasil, Estados Unidos e Alemanha. Para tal, os biocombustíveis foram analisados por intermédio dos dados das matrizes energéticas, da produção de matéria-prima e do biocombustível, do consumo interno, das políticas de suporte, barreiras tarifárias e não tarifárias, bem como dos gargalos existentes. Nos aspectos econômicos foram abordados indicadores da macroeconomia, indicadores específicos para biocombustíveis, a logística e a presença de subsídios. Nos aspectos sociais, a situação do trabalhador rural foi analisada enfatizando o trabalhador temporário imigrante na agricultura. O histórico das políticas possibilitou verificar a associação entre os estímulos políticos e a variação na produção. A construção dos cenários permitiu estimar a área necessária para expansão da produção de biocombustíveis. Neste grupo heterogêneo de países, em que as características sociais e econômicas são distintas, verificou-se que a legislação apresenta peculiaridades conforme a realidade de cada país. Com relação aos aspectos sociais, a situação dos trabalhadores temporários imigrantes na agricultura é semelhante, apresentando como características em comum a faixa etária, o grau de escolaridade e a remuneração. No que diz respeito aos biocombustíveis, etanol brasileiro é competitivo com o combustível fóssil correspondente, sem ajuda de subsídios. Apenas recentemente, o biodiesel apresentou aumento significativo na produção, após políticas de incentivo nos três países estudados. A produção e o consumo de biocombustíveis têm avançado nos três países. Entretanto, o Brasil apresenta a maior aptidão para produção de etanol, da atualidade, devido à possibilidade de expansão agrícola e ao tipo de matéria-prima utilizada que possui um balanço energético melhor. Nos Estados Unidos e na Alemanha, o custo de produção e a menor disponibilidade de terras agriculturáveis são vetores desfavoráveis à produção de biocombustíveis. / This study aims at a comparative analysis of the social and economic aspects, as a result of biofuels production, ethanol and biodiesel, in the three main producing and consuming countries The United States, Germany, and Brazil. To that end, there were analyses of biofuels production in several data fields such as; energy matrix, feedstock and biofuels production, local consumption, supportive policies, tariff and non-tariff barriers and existing bottlenecks. In the economic aspects, it was analyzed some macroeconomic indicators, biofuels indicators, logistics and subsidies. In respect of social aspects, the situation of the rural worker was analyzed, emphasizing the rural temporary foreign worker. The historical review of biofuels policies enabled to verify the association between the biofuels policies support and the biofuels production variation. It was possible to estimate the amount of land required for the expansion of biofuels production by the construction of scenarios. In this heterogenic group of countries with distinct social and economic characteristics, it was observed that the legislation development process follows each countrys reality. Despite of social aspects, the condition of the rural temporary foreign worker is alike, presenting common characteristics such as; age average, educational level and wage. Regarding the biofuels involved in this study, the Brazilian ethanol is more competitive with the regular fossil fuel even without subsidies. Only recently, there was a significant increase in the biodiesel production, after support policies in the three countries. Lately, the production and consumption of biofuels have been increasing in the three countries. Nevertheless, currently, Brazil has the major possibility to enhance biofuels production due its land availability and the use of a feedstock with the highest energy balance. In The United States and Germany the production costs and the lower quantity of agricultural land availability are disadvantages to their biofuels production.

Most of the time when developing policies for the promotion of future biofuel, the social dimension of sustainable development is neglected. But it is important to incorporate both social and economic issues along with environmental issues for a successful sustainability strategy because sustainable development depends on all three aspects of sustainability. This paper focuses on the sustainable development of liquid biofuel for the transport sector.The global transport sector is booming as is the need for energy. With the growing concern about climate change, governments of developed countries have been implementing different policy directives to promote biofuel as an alternative source of energy. But strategies implemented to fulfill the target of mitigating effects of climate change have exposed negative effects of liquid biofuels on both environment and society. This paper reviewed information on liquid biofuels and their effects on environment, society and economy and analyzed them from a sustainable development point of view. Although scientists have developed biofuels through advanced technology that seem to have less negative effects than traditional biofuels, they are still on a trial basis. In addition to this the effects of these biofuels are also need to be tested on a commercial basis in order to ensure their sustainability. Due to these considerations the process of switching from traditional biofuel to advanced biofuels will require time. It is imperative to develop sustainable ways of production and use of available biofuels which do not harm nature or exploit vulnerable communities. Biofuel policies also need to be studied thoroughly in order to find weaknesses and pitfalls. Although numerous studies related to specific issue like indirect land use change, GHG emission, biofuel policies or the biofuel market etc. have been conducted, it is rare to find a study that takes into consideration of all three aspects (economy, society and environment) of sustainable development. After reviewing and analyzing the literature, this thesis has come to a conclusion that the potential of liquid biofuel in the future transport sector is unlimited. But due to the negative effects on environment and society it has not achieved sustainability. Moreover the expense of production and lack of investment in the sector has made it economically unsustainable. But, it is possible to change the scenario by implementing proper policies in a way that the social and environmental issues that happened in the past do not happen again and the sector can achieve sustainability.

Esta dissertação apresenta uma análise comparativa dos aspectos sociais e econômicos decorrentes da produção dos biocombustíveis, etanol e biodiesel, nos principais países produtores e consumidores da atualidade Brasil, Estados Unidos e Alemanha. Para tal, os biocombustíveis foram analisados por intermédio dos dados das matrizes energéticas, da produção de matéria-prima e do biocombustível, do consumo interno, das políticas de suporte, barreiras tarifárias e não tarifárias, bem como dos gargalos existentes. Nos aspectos econômicos foram abordados indicadores da macroeconomia, indicadores específicos para biocombustíveis, a logística e a presença de subsídios. Nos aspectos sociais, a situação do trabalhador rural foi analisada enfatizando o trabalhador temporário imigrante na agricultura. O histórico das políticas possibilitou verificar a associação entre os estímulos políticos e a variação na produção. A construção dos cenários permitiu estimar a área necessária para expansão da produção de biocombustíveis. Neste grupo heterogêneo de países, em que as características sociais e econômicas são distintas, verificou-se que a legislação apresenta peculiaridades conforme a realidade de cada país. Com relação aos aspectos sociais, a situação dos trabalhadores temporários imigrantes na agricultura é semelhante, apresentando como características em comum a faixa etária, o grau de escolaridade e a remuneração. No que diz respeito aos biocombustíveis, etanol brasileiro é competitivo com o combustível fóssil correspondente, sem ajuda de subsídios. Apenas recentemente, o biodiesel apresentou aumento significativo na produção, após políticas de incentivo nos três países estudados. A produção e o consumo de biocombustíveis têm avançado nos três países. Entretanto, o Brasil apresenta a maior aptidão para produção de etanol, da atualidade, devido à possibilidade de expansão agrícola e ao tipo de matéria-prima utilizada que possui um balanço energético melhor. Nos Estados Unidos e na Alemanha, o custo de produção e a menor disponibilidade de terras agriculturáveis são vetores desfavoráveis à produção de biocombustíveis. / This study aims at a comparative analysis of the social and economic aspects, as a result of biofuels production, ethanol and biodiesel, in the three main producing and consuming countries The United States, Germany, and Brazil. To that end, there were analyses of biofuels production in several data fields such as; energy matrix, feedstock and biofuels production, local consumption, supportive policies, tariff and non-tariff barriers and existing bottlenecks. In the economic aspects, it was analyzed some macroeconomic indicators, biofuels indicators, logistics and subsidies. In respect of social aspects, the situation of the rural worker was analyzed, emphasizing the rural temporary foreign worker. The historical review of biofuels policies enabled to verify the association between the biofuels policies support and the biofuels production variation. It was possible to estimate the amount of land required for the expansion of biofuels production by the construction of scenarios. In this heterogenic group of countries with distinct social and economic characteristics, it was observed that the legislation development process follows each countrys reality. Despite of social aspects, the condition of the rural temporary foreign worker is alike, presenting common characteristics such as; age average, educational level and wage. Regarding the biofuels involved in this study, the Brazilian ethanol is more competitive with the regular fossil fuel even without subsidies. Only recently, there was a significant increase in the biodiesel production, after support policies in the three countries. Lately, the production and consumption of biofuels have been increasing in the three countries. Nevertheless, currently, Brazil has the major possibility to enhance biofuels production due its land availability and the use of a feedstock with the highest energy balance. In The United States and Germany the production costs and the lower quantity of agricultural land availability are disadvantages to their biofuels production.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Price volatility and high dependency on imported petroleum fuel has prompted the Zambian government to look into renewable fuels as part of an energy diversification program. With growing global interest in biofuels as a transportation fuel, the Zambian government intends to introduce bioethanol and biodiesel as renewable fuels in the transportation sector. While it seems feasible to produce both the feedstocks and biofuels to meet local demand, a regulatory framework and industry support mechanisms have not yet been formulated. The policy and regulatory frameworks encompass a multitude of actors, networks and institutions all playing distinct and important roles. Incorporating the differing interests of all these stakeholders is an involving process that requires detailed analysis of agriculture, environmental, energy, socioeconomic and taxation policies. This study attempts to contribute to the biofuels policy formulation process in Zambia. It analyses biofuel policies in leading biofuels producing countries and identifies aspects that the Zambian government should consider incorporating in its own policies to ensure a viable biofuels industry. Biofuel policies in Brazil, Germany and the United States of America were analysed using a detailed case study and extensive literature review. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the Zambian agriculture sector and the demand for petroleum fuel puts into context the potential demand and challenges likely to be faced. By understanding the history and development of biofuels in the case study countries, best practices, problems faced, policy innovations and industry support mechanisms were identified to inform policy formulation in Zambia. This does not only provide valuable insights and lessons but also ensures that time and resources are not wasted by reinventing the wheel. The comparative analysis of policies and support mechanisms in the three case study countries showed that articulating a clear policy objective, government support in the form of subsidies, wide stakeholder involvement and industry regulation have all played a critical role in the development of the industry. However, the extent to which all these factors have helped to shape the industry in Brazil, Germany and the USA is neither equal nor static. Countries are continuously adapting their policies and support mechanisms to environmental, energy and economic conditions. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die onbestendigheid van pryse en die groot mate van afhanklikheid van ingevoerde petroleumbrandstof het die Zambiese regering aangespoor om ondersoek in te stel na hernubare brandstof as deel van 'n energiediversifiseringsprogram. In die lig van die groeiende globale belangstelling in biobrandstof as vervoerbrandstof, beplan die Zambiese regering om bioetanol en biodiesel as hernubare brandstof in die vervoersektor te begin gebruik. Al lyk dit prakties uitvoerbaar om sowel die voerstof as die biobrandstof te vervaardig om in die plaaslike aanvraag te voorsien, is 'n reguleringsraamwerk en ondersteuningsmeganismes vir die industrie nog nie geskep nie. 'n Menigte rolspelers, netwerke en instellings, wat almal verskillende en belangrike rolle speel, sal betrokke wees by die beleidsformulering en reguleringsraamwerk. Om die uiteenlopende belange van al die betrokke partye in ag te neem is 'n ingewikkelde proses wat sal vereis dat 'n uitvoerige analise gemaak word van landbou-, omgewings-, energie-, sosio-ekonomiese en belastingbeleidsrigtings. Die doelwit van hierdie studie is om 'n bydrae te lewer tot die formuleringsproses van die biobrandstofbeleid in Zambie. Dit analiseer die biobrandstofbeleid van die vooraanstaande lande wat biobrandstof vervaardig, en identifiseer aspekte wat die Zambiese regering in sy beleid behoort in te sluit om 'n lewensvatbare biobrandstofindustrie te verseker. Die biobrandstofbeleid van Brasilie, Duitsland en die Verenigde State van Amerika (VSA) is geanaliseer met behulp van uitvoerige gevallestudies en 'n grondige literatuurstudie. Verder plaas 'n noukeurige analise van die Zambiese landbousektor en die aanvraag na petroleumbrandstof die potensiele aanvraag en uitdagings wat waarskynlik hanteer sal meet word in konteks. Deur insig te verkry in die geskiedenis en ontwikkeling van biobrandstof in die lande waar die gevallestudies gedoen is, kon die beste gebruike, moontlike probleme, nuwe beleidsrigtings en ondersteuningsmeganismes in die bedryf geidentifiseer word om die beleid in Zambie te help formuleer. Dit bied nie slegs waardevolle insig en leergeleenthede nie, maar verseker ook dat tyd en hulpbronne nie vermors word deur die wiel van voor af uit te vind nie. Die vergelykende analise van die beleidsrigtings en ondersteuningsmeganismes in die drie lande waar die gevallestudies gedoen is, het getoon dat 'n duidelik geformuleerde beleidsdoelwit, ondersteuning van die regering in die vorm van subsidies, die algemene betrokkenheid van belanghebbendes en die regulering van die industrie alles 'n uiters belangrike rol gespeel het in die ontwikkeling van hierdie industrie. Die mate waarin al hierdie faktore die industrie in Brasilie, Duitsland en die VSA help vorm het, het egter gewissel en was nooit staties nie. Lande pas voortdurend hulle beleid en ondersteuningsmeganismes aan by omgewings-, energie- en ekonomiese toestande.