Committee Chair: Dr. Shaun Wang Major Department: Risk Management and Insurance In this thesis I employ regime switching models on a unique dataset of bond downgrades to examine the information value of timely downgrades. I use ratings from a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) and a non-NRSRO as proxies for the arrival of public and private information. Regime switching models allow us to identify the time at which a discrete shift in the underlying stock return process takes place, estimate the distribution of returns in each regime and also observe the duration of each regime associated with the day of the downgrade. The first contribution is proposing an alternative way to perform an event study. First I define a regime switching model with two regimes: one of low and high volatility. The probabilistic nature of regime switching models allows us to identify the exact day on which stock returns switch to a high volatility regime. This is directly observed through the estimated daily conditional probability of being in one of the two regimes. In summary, I find that stocks switch from a low-volatility regime (1.92%) to a high-volatility regime (6.10%) on the day of the downgrade. The high-volatility regime lasts for about three days and it is mainly driven by downgrades of the smaller bond rating company (non-NRSRO). The second contribution is to propose a method to quantify stock return distress costs associated with downgrades. This measure is based on the capital asset pricing model, uses the parameters of the regime switching model and the estimated daily conditional probabilities of being in each regime. I find that distress costs on stock returns range from 9.49% to 12.91% for the 10 days prior to the day of the downgrade when assuming unity for the market price of risk. The magnitude and direction (sign) of my estimates are consistent with prior literature on the information value of bond ratings. The third contribution is to propose an extension to regime switching models to the bivariate case with a common shock. I show through a state-contingent model how shocks to the economy may cause a one time loss that affects a portfolio of stocks. I derive the frequency and severity implications of such exogenous shocks on regime switching models.

This dissertation explores three current issues relevant to the accounting and business communities by empirically examining the effect these issues have on the bond credit market. The first study examines the effect earnings predictability has on both the initial bond rating and the initial pricing of the issue. Earnings predictability is measured as (1) the annual earnings surprise (actual minus analyst forecast) and (2) the dispersion of initial analyst forecasts. The results indicate a negative association between a lack of earnings predictability and both bond ratings and initial bond price. The results are consistent with creditors interpreting greater earnings variability as a dimension of default risk incremental to the benchmark model. These results add to the existing literature by documenting a favorable benefit in the credit arena for firms that have predictable earnings. The second study investigates the effect perceived auditor independence has on the rating assigned to newly issued bonds. The magnitude of non-audit service fees is utilized as a proxy for auditor independence. The results of the study document a consistent negative relationship between the level of non-audit fees provided by the external auditor and the bond rating received by the client for new issues. Several non-audit fee measures are used in the study (raw measure, log scaled, asset scaled, unexpected) and each possess a significant negative association with a firm's bond rating. Importantly, no economic effect was discernable in a classification accuracy analysis. The third study examines what effect, if any, longer auditor tenure has on the client's bond rating. There is some contention that longer auditor tenure can lead to substandard audits either through the auditor's excessive desire to retain the client or through general auditor complacency. However, the issue of auditor tenure is far from one-sided. An alternative view asserts that longer auditor tenure increases client-specific knowledge and, thus, results in increased audit quality. Results indicate a positive association between auditor tenure and the client's bond rating on new issues suggesting that longer auditor tenure is perceived to be beneficial by bond rating analysts. This is consistent with financial statement users perceiving longer tenured auditors to have more client specific knowledge thus increasing auditor competency and a better audit. Overall, these results contribute to the existing knowledge-base in accounting by empirically demonstrating how several important issues of interest to the accounting profession are impounded into a firm's bond rating. This research provides a detailed look at how one important group of knowledgeable financial statement users, i.e. bond rating analysts, incorporate several issues that are relevant and important to the professional community. / Ph. D.

This dissertation investigates auditor independence by examining the effects of various factors on independence, both in fact and as perceived by several distinct groups. The first study examines the effects of auditing students' cognitive moral development and client risk on students' judgments related to an audit partner's acquiescence to client pressure in an earnings management scenario. The results indicate that students with higher levels of moral reasoning evaluated earnings management as less ethical and were also less likely to accept earnings management by an audit client. The results also indicate that subjects in a high client risk scenario evaluated earnings management as less ethical and were also less likely to accept earnings management by an audit client. Furthermore, this study investigated whether client risk moderates the effect of cognitive moral reasoning on ethical judgments and behavioral intentions. The results do not indicate an interaction. The second and third studies deal with potential consequences associated with the perceived impairment of auditor independence. Specifically, the second study deals with the effects of auditor-provided non-audit services on the client company's bond rating. If financial statement users believe that auditors providing non-audit services impairs the auditor's independence, they are likely to recognize an increase in information risk associated with such impairment (Johnstone et al. 2001). This could occur regardless of the true nature of the auditor's independence and would suggest a negative relationship between the amount of non-audit services purchased from the company's auditor and the company's bond rating. The results of this study support that contention. The third study investigates the effects of client importance and audit firm size on juror evaluations of auditor liability and damage awards. Previous research in accounting shows that client importance can affect sophisticated financial statement users' perceptions of auditor independence. However, no study has investigated perceptions of auditor independence in a litigation context. The results indicate that when an auditor is involved in litigation associated with an audit client that is financially more important to the auditor, jurors' evaluations of negligence are higher and they assess more in punitive damages. No effect of audit firm size on negligence ratings or damage awards is found. / Ph. D.

Environmental remediation liabilities are generated primarily as a result of past actions by a firm. The most important of these liabilities for domestic U.S. firms are related to Superfund sites as designated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). These liabilities are important for domestic firms because of their size, which is estimated to be approximately $300 billion (Congressional Budget Office 1994) and because of public concern for the environment. This study examines the relation among bond ratings, bond yields, and EPA-based estimates of contingent environmental remediation liabilities to test if the relationships hold as theory implies it would. Extant theory suggests that financial variables, such as environmental remediation liabilities, have incremental explanatory power beyond the information included in bond ratings for bond yield. The purpose of this study is to determine the importance of external estimates of a firm's contingent environmental liabilities for a firm's cost of debt. In addition, the manner in which a firm's contingent environmental liabilities are included in the costs of debt is examined in this study. The results of this study indicate that external estimates for environmental liabilities are associated with the bond ratings and bond yield for a data set of new bond issues collected from the period 1995 to 1997. Despite that firms are increasing their recognition of environmental liabilities, either due to regulatory pressure or other factors, the measures based on EPA data still have significant explanatory power. The results imply that firms are either still lagging in appropriate recognition or that the external measures proxy for amounts imputed by the capital markets for some probable unspecified future costs. The latter explanation is supported by additional evidence in this study that the largest monetary measure of the liability is the most significantly associated with bond ratings and bond yields. Further, the results indicate that the external estimates are incorporated in bond ratings as part of the firm's default risk and have no direct influence over bond yield beyond that included in the bond ratings. This implies that bond ratings are particularly important for any evaluation of investment in debt securities from firms that have contingent environmental liabilities. / Ph. D.

SAMMANFATTNING   Titel: Hur påverkar goodwillnedskrivningar företags kreditbetyg? - en kvantitativ undersökning av europeiska företag   Nivå: Examensarbete på Grundnivå (kandidatexamen) i ämnet företagsekonomi   Författare: Danilo Jovanovic och Sven Nelson   Handledare: Jan Svanberg   Datum: 2019 - juni   Syfte: År 2005 blev tillämpningen av IASB:s kontroversiella och värdebaserade redovisningsstandard IFRS obligatorisk för europeiska noterade bolag, genom en förordning antagen av Europarlamentet. Med tiden har allvarlig kritik kommit att riktats mot utformningen av standarden, då den inbegriper en hög grad subjektivitet i samband med goodwillnedskrivningar. Samtidigt har obligationer kommit att utgöra en allt viktigare finansieringskälla för europeiska företag. Syftet med studien är att undersöka om goodwillnedskrivningar, enligt standarden IAS 36, har någon påverkan på företags kreditbetyg.   Metod: Studien utförs i positivistisk vetenskapstradition med en hypotetiskt-deduktiv ansats. Studien har en kvantitativ forskningsstrategi som innefattar åren 2013-2017. Sekundärdata för listade europeiska företag (exkl. UK) har inhämtats från Thomson Reuters Datastream och Thomson Reuters Eikon. Urvalet består av 76 företag. Hypotesen testas genom en regressionsanalys med ordered logit modellen i programmet IBM SPSS Statistics 24.   Resultat & slutsats: Resultatet från studien bekräftar att goodwillnedskrivningar har en negativ påverkan på företags kreditbetyg. Slutsatsen medför därmed att sambandet även gäller i en europeisk kontext där man tillämpar redovisningsstandarden IAS 36. Examensarbetets bidrag: Studien bidrar till redovisningslitteraturen genom att komplettera ett forskningsgap rörande faktorer som påverkar kreditbetyg, och om en faktor som karaktäriseras av subjektivitet får genomslag på kreditbetyg. Studien bidrar även till redovisningslitteraturen genom att fylla forskningsgapet rörande sambandet mellan goodwillnedskrivningar enligt IAS 36 och kreditbetyg. Studien lämnar även ett praktiskt till  obligationsemittenter, investerare och redovisningsupprättare för bättre beslutsfattande.   Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Då ett företags kreditvärdighet är multidimensionellt, begränsas studien av de utvalda företagsspecifika faktorerna. Även avgränsningen mot ett specifikt geografiskt område, tidsperiod och företagskaraktäristik utgör en begränsning. De förslag studien lämnar till fortsatt forskning utgörs av att basera framtida studier på en diversifierad geografisk kontext, för att undersöka möjligheten att generalisera de aktuella resultaten. Ytterligare förslag är att studera kreditbetygets påverkan av andra företagsspecifika faktorer, för att skapa en större förståelse för en multidimensionell bedömning av företags kreditvärdighet.   Nyckelord: IAS 36, goodwillnedskrivning, kreditbetyg. / Abstract   Title: How does goodwill impairments affect companies bond rating? - A quantitative study of European companies   Level: Student thesis, final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration   Author: Danilo Jovanovic and Sven Nelson   Supervisor: Jan Svanberg   Date: 2019 - June   Aim: The application of IASB’s controversial and fair value-based standard of accounting, IFRS, became mandatory for listed European corporations through a statue passed by the European parliament in 2005. A severe criticism has been aimed at the framing of the standard throughout the years, due to the high degree of subjectivity in connection to goodwill impairments. In parallel, bonds have grown to become an even more significant source of finance for European companies. The aim of this thesis is to examine whether goodwill impairments, in accordance with IAS 36, have an impact on companies’ bond ratings.   Method: The study is conducted in the positivist tradition with a hypothetical-deductive research approach. The study has a quantitative research strategy including the years 2013-2017. Secondary data for the listed European companies (not including UK) have been collected using Thomson Reuters Datastream and Thomson Reuters Eikon. The sample consists of 76 companies. The hypothesis is tested by using a regression analysis with the ordered logit model in IBM SPSS Statistics 24.   Result & Conclusions: The result from the study confirms that goodwill impairments have a negative impact on companies’ bond ratings. Therefore, the study reaches the conclusion that the relationship also applies in a European context where the accounting standard IAS 36 is applied.   Contribution of the thesis: This thesis contributes to present accounting literature by filling a gap regarding how company factors affect bond ratings. This by its specific focus on the subjective characteristics of a factor and its impact on bond ratings. Furthermore, this study contributes to the literature by examining the relation between goodwill devaluation according to IAS 36 and bond ratings, and by contributing to practicians such as bond issuers, investors and standard setters for improved decision.   Suggestions for future research: As the creditworthiness of a company is multidimensional, this study is limited by focusing on specific company factors. The study is also limited geographically, time periodically and company characteristically. This thesis proposes further research by basing future research on a more diversified geographical context. This to enable the exploration of possibilities to generalize relevant results and findings. Further suggestions would be to study how other company factors affect the bond rating, to create a more profound understanding of the multidimensional assessment of a companies’ credit reliability.   Key words: IAS 36, goodwill impairment, bond ratings.

This dissertation examines the reaction of common stock prices to changes in bond ratings by Moody's Bond Service. The question is whether an announcement of a re-rating by Moody's is new information. There are only two studies of stock price reaction to bond changes and the results are conflicting. Pinches and Singleton (1978) [PS] concluded that any reaction comes well before the re-rating. Griffin and Sanvicente (1982) [GS] found that their portfolio test indicated that rating changes do convey new information. This was particularly true for downgradings. Both studies used monthly data and neither performed a statistical testing of residual reversals. PS provided a graph of the residuals which indicated the presence of a reversal trend. GS provided no information on this topic. This study, using daily data and the cumulative prediction error technique, finds that bond re-ratings offer new information. The results indicate that the market only partially anticipates the bond change. For the downgrades, the excess return on the announcement day is .6% which is statistically significant. The residuals reverse after the announcement day, but are not statistically significant. The upgrades do not have a significant reaction on the announcement day, but have a statistically significant negative reaction from day 1 to 10. The cumulative residual for days 1 to 10 is -2.8% with a test statistic of -3.85. This study finds as PS that there is some anticipation for both upgrades and downgrades. It extends their work by statistically testings the reversals after the announcement date and by testing the announcement day effect. There is significant abnormal return for the downgrades on the announcement day and the upgrades have a significant reversal in their residuals from day 1 to 10. This provides both support and extension of Griffin and Sanvicente's results and suggests that Moody's is offering the market new information.