China and India have many in common, are geographically large developing countries with enormous populations, but with notably different economic systems. This paper focus on exploring the relationship between GDP and consumption behaviors in China and India over the period 1978-2006. We use GDP as a proxy to represent income and household final consumption as a proxy to represent consumption. The long run relations are estimated by ARDL (1, 1) model. We find that India’s consumption is in the line of theory. But the relationship between GDP and consumption in China is unique, in terms of a negative intercept, a negative time trend and a larger than one marginal propensity to consumption. This may due to two possible explanations. First, after almost 30 years high growth households in China are optimistic to their future incomes. They prefer to borrowing for smoothing their consumptions. Second, there might have winding income what are not in the statistics. Finally, we adopt a series of diagnostic tests to check if selected models are strong enough and analysis the results.

In this paper, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test approach to estimate the elasticity of demand for natural gas in Western and Central Canada. The best model specification selected by Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) for each province suggests that there exist long-run relationships between the dependent variable and independent variables for all provinces, except Ontario. Consumption per capita in these provinces can be explained by natural gas prices, electricity prices, income, and heating degree days (a measurement for the weather factor) in levels for the selected specification. The results show that natural gas demand is very inelastic with respect to natural gas prices and also with respect to heating degree days.

This study investigates the Fisher Effect for a sample of ten developed countries and ten developing countries. The study examines whether the nominal interest rate adjusts to the expected inflation rate in the long run. The distinction between the developed countries and developing countries also enables to identify special conditions under which Fisher Effect is more likely to hold. To analyze the long run relationship between the nominal interest rate and expected inflation rate, Bounds test approach of Pesaran et. al. (2001) is utilized. Estimation results show that the adjustment of nominal interest rate to expected inflation is encountered mostly for the developing countries which have inflationary history in their economies.

This study analyzes the J-curve effect for Turkey&rsquo / s bilateral trade with her three main trading partners / Germany, USA and Italy, for consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The bounds test is used to test for cointegration among the trade balance, the real bilateral exchange rate, the real domestic income and the real foreign income. The results show that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant of trade in the short run. In the long run, it is significant only for trade with USA in consumption goods. Moreover, J-curve does not exist for Turkey&rsquo / s bilateral trade with Germany, USA, and Italy in consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The results support existence of a link between the bilateral trade balances and the real domestic income both in the short run and the long run.

This study analyzes the effect of capital outflows on economic growth though the channels described in sudden stop literature. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach / it is found that there is a cointegration between capital inflows, real exchange rate and real GDP. The results show that there is a significant positive long-run relation between capital inflows and growth. It is also found that capital inflows affect real output in the short run. The results show that real exchange rate is not a significant determinant of real output both in the short run and long run. Moreover, in order to capture the dynamic responses, a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology has been employed. The results show that a negative innovation in capital inflows causes real exchange rate depreciation and output contraction.

This paper is a first attempt to empirically evaluate some competing hypotheses for the Austrian growth performance. We find that the real appreciations, gross investment, a low duration of unemployment and high youth employment exhibit a significant influence on economic growth. This validates the hard currency policy hypothesis, the macroeconomic management hypothesis, and the microinstitutions hypothesis, whilst all other fail according to this exercise. In particular, we find the Schulmeister-thesis of loose money and the deficit spending hypothesis are even counterfactual. Summarizing, we find that economic policy had its share in promoting growth in the Austrian economy. As a byproduct from our analysis, we find that low levels of unemployment have a significant and positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP, which calls for further theoretical research in this direction. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

This paper explores the link between agriculture investment and agriculture output in Namibia. The existing theory on investment and growth constitutes a basis for empirical work on investment-output nexus. Neither the neoclassical nor the new growth theories on investment have considered the growth effects of investment at sector and industry level and its implication on capital allocation, particularly for developing countries that are resource constrained. The key question addressed in this paper is whether investment in agriculture is associated with agriculture output, both at the sector and sub-sector levels. The paper adopted the ARDL bounds test model constructed with quarterly data for the period 2000 to 2020 and found that investment and agricultural output exhibit a long-run relationship. The coefficient estimates showed that public investment, development bank loans and agriculture export have a positive impact on agricultural output while inflation, lending rates and commercial bank loans have a deleterious effect. The long-run causality tests suggest that there is unidirectional causality between commercial credit expenditure and aggregate agriculture output, as well as a unidirectional causality running from exports to livestock and crop sub-sector output. Based on error correction terms, agriculture output tends to rapidly adjust to short-term disturbances, hence rebound of agriculture output to a long-run growth path can take place with minimum or no delays. This study concludes that the Keynesian hypothesis is valid for Namibia's agriculture and the direction of causality is from investment to agriculture growth. Therefore, the role of government in supporting sustainable development of the agricultural sector cannot be overemphasised.

This paper examines the effects of the exchange rate on bilateral industry trade in Sweden's trade with the Euro area. This is done by examining whether the J-curve effect exists using quarterly data from 1995 until 2022. Since becoming floating in the 1990s, the Swedish Krona has weakened significantly and recently, the discussion about the weakness of the Swedish Krona has gained renewed attention. Since Sweden is a small and open economy highly dependent on international trade, changes in the exchange rate may have large effects on the Swedish economy. The J-curve effect implies that the trade balance following a depreciation may initially worsen before later improving. The ARDL-approach is employed to obtain both short- and long-run effects of a depreciation on Swedish trade balance. In the 66 industries studied, little support can be found for a J-curve effect in Sweden's trade with the Euro area. Although 27 industries present short-run effects of a depreciation only five lasts until the long-run. Similarly, the results indicate that industries with a lower share of foreign inputs in their exports are affected more favourable than those with a higher share in the short run. No such results are found in the long run.

This essay examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility, estimated using a GARCH model, and level of trade for Sweden and Finland. The data used was collected from Refinitive Eikon Datastream with monthly observations for the time period January 2005 - December 2022. The obtained results indicate that the volatility of the Swedish Krona and Euro positively increases the level of trade for Sweden respectively Finland according to the ARDL model. However, while examining different time perspectives the conclusions resulted in inconclusiveness for the countries and perspectives. The ARDL bounds test for Sweden corresponded with inconclusive results regarding a possible positive long term relationship between SEKs exchange rate volatility and level of trade. Furthermore, the Granger causality test did not state a short term relationship between the two variables for Sweden nor did it state a reversed relationship. On the other hand, for Finland, the ARDL bounds test and Granger causality test denied both a long term and short term positive relationship between the EURs exchange rate volatility and level of trade for Finland. However, for Finland a reversed Granger causality test was shown indicating that the level of trade has an impact on the volatility of the EURs exchange rate.