This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of the co-movement of economic activity across regions in the European Union. Using a panel data of 208 EU-15 regions over the period 1989-2002 we estimate a system of four simultaneous equations to analyse the impact of regional trade integration, specialization and exchange rate volatility on correlations of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. We find that deeper trade integration with the Euro area had a strong direct positive effect on the synchronisation of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. Industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were sources of cyclical divergence. Industrial specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on growth cycles synchronisation via its positive effect on trade integration, while exchange rate volatility had an indirect additional negative effect on growth cycle correlations by reducing trade integration. Industrial specialisation had an indirect negative effect on growth cycle correlations by increasing the exchange rate volatility. The direct impact of trade integration on growth cycle correlations was stronger in the pre-EMU sub-period, while in the EMU subperiod, the negative direct effects of industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were stronger than in the pre-EMU sub-period. A distinct result is the positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth cycle correlations in the pre-EMU sub-period, suggesting that over this period, country-specific exchange rate fluctuations acted as shock absorbers. Our analysis is relevant in the context of the discussion about the macroeconomic adjustment to region-specific shocks in the European Monetary Union. (authors' abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

L’axe principal de la thèse est centré sur des approches non-linéaires modernes d’analyse des données économiques et financières, avec une attention particulière sur les cycles économiques et les crises financières. Un consensus dans la littérature statistique et financière s’est établie autour du fait que les variables économiques ont un comportement non-linéaire au cours des différentes phases du cycle économique. En tant que tel, les approches/modèles non-linéaires sont requis pour saisir les caractéristiques du mécanisme de génération des données intrinsèquement asymétriques, que les modèles linéaires sont incapables de reproduire.À cet égard, la thèse propose une nouvelle approche interdisciplinaire et ouverte à l’analyse des systèmes économiques et financiers. La thèse présente des approches robustes aux valeurs extrêmes et à la non-stationnarité, applicables à la fois pour des petits et de grands échantillons, aussi bien pour des séries temporelles économiques que financières. La thèse fournit des procédures dites étape par étape dans l’analyse des indicateurs économiques et financiers en intégrant des concepts basés sur la méthode de substitution de données, des ondelettes, espace incorporation de phase, la m´méthode retard vecteur variance (DVV) et des récurrences parcelles. La thèse met aussi en avant des méthodes transparentes d’identification, de datation des points de retournement et de l´évaluation des impacts des crises économiques et financières. En particulier, la thèse fournit également une procédure pour anticiper les crises futures et ses conséquences.L’étude montre que l’intégration de ces techniques dans l’apprentissage de la structure et des interactions au sein et entre les variables économiques et financières sera très utile dans l’élaboration de politiques de crises, car elle facilite le choix des méthodes de traitement appropriées, suggérées par les données.En outre, une nouvelle procédure pour tester la linéarité et la racine unitaire dans un cadre non-linéaire est proposé par l’introduction d’un nouveau modèle – le modèle MT-STAR – qui a des propriétés similaires au modèle ESTAR mais réduit les effets des problèmes d’identification et peut aussi représenter l’asymétrie dans le mécanisme d’ajustement vers l’équilibre. Les distributions asymptotiques du test de racine unitaire proposées sont non-standards et sont calculées. La puissance du test est évaluée par simulation et quelques illustrations empiriques sur les taux de change réel montrent son efficacité. Enfin, la thèse développe des modèles multi-variés Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive avec des variables exogènes (MSETARX) et présente une méthode d’estimation paramétrique. La modélisation des modèles MSETARX et des problèmes engendrés par son estimation sont brièvement examinés. / This thesis centers on introducing modern non-linear approaches for data analysis in economics and finance with special attention on business cycles and financial crisis. It is now well stated in the statistical and economic literature that major economic variables display non-linear behaviour over the different phases of the business cycle. As such, nonlinear approaches/models are required to capture the features of the data generating mechanism of inherently asymmetric realizations, since linear models are incapable of generating such behavior.In this respect, the thesis provides an interdisciplinary and open-minded approach to analyzing economic and financial systems in a novel way. The thesis presents approaches that are robust to extreme values, non-stationarity, applicable to both short and long data length, transparent and adaptive to any financial/economic time series. The thesis provides step-by-step procedures in analyzing economic/financial indicators by incorporating concepts based on surrogate data method, wavelets, phase space embedding, ’delay vector variance’ (DVV) method and recurrence plots. The thesis also centers on transparent ways of identifying, dating turning points, evaluating impact of economic and financial crisis. In particular, the thesis also provides a procedure on how to anticipate future crisis and the possible impact of such crisis. The thesis shows that the incorporation of these techniques in learning the structure and interactions within and between economic and financial variables will be very useful in policy-making, since it facilitates the selection of appropriate processing methods, suggested by the data itself.In addition, a novel procedure to test for linearity and unit root in a nonlinear framework is proposed by introducing a new model – the MT-STAR model – which has similar properties of the ESTAR model but reduces the effects of the identification problem and can also account for asymmetry in the adjustment mechanism towards equilibrium. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed unit root test is non-standard and is derived.The power of the test is evaluated through a simulation study and some empirical illustrations on real exchange rates show its accuracy. Finally, the thesis defines a multivariate Self–Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The modeling procedure for the MSETARX models and problems of estimation are briefly considered.

Research paper for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment / With a globalised system, the credit crunch of 2007/2008 rippled through the global economy quickly and turned a global financial crisis into a global economic crisis, vulnerabilities in the economy surfaced when it hit and these still continue to plague South Africa today. According to the World Bank, South Africa’s real GDP growth estimates are 0.8% in 2016/2017 and 1.1% in 2017/2018. Increasing uncertainty in global financial markets and banking systems, sharp declines in commodity prices, subdued global trade, currency pressure, as well as domestic constraints such as a current account deficit, a negative inflation outlook and high levels of unemployment, lead to increased financial stress in South Africa making the country more vulnerable in the event of an adverse scenario. Clearly, being cognizant of determinants of financial stress in South Africa is of paramount importance to policy makers as it allows them to assess potential risks to financial system stability and to consider timely and appropriate counteractions while maintaining a financial system that is resilient to systemic shocks. (South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review, 2016) This study aims to construct a financial stress index using Principal Component Analysis to identify key determinants of financial stress in South Africa. Several variables that have been identified in standing literature as being able to capture certain symptoms of financial strain in emerging market economies are estimated then aggregated into an index using the principal component analysis method. The usefulness of the index in identifying past crises is then assessed, moreover its performance is contrasted against the financial stress index constructed by South African Reserve Bank as well as against a South African composite business cycle leading indicator. Finally, the ability of the index to predict economic activity is examined. / MT2017

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management, specialising in Entrepreneurship and New Venture Creation Johannesburg, 2017 / This study examined the relationship between business failure and macroeconomic fluctuations within business cycles of South Africa’s economy for the time period 1980 to 2016. The study also sought to understand where, if any, immediate and lag correlations between fluctuations and business failure could be established. To understand this connection, this study used longitudinal data sets of different macroeconomic factors and studied their influence on business failure. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to determine the long-term relationship between failure and each of the other variables. Additionally, Granger Causality was applied to establish whether the macroeconomic variables investigated in this study can be constructed to predict the probability of business failures. Three classes of macroeconomic predictor variables were considered. Firstly, well-known international variables in the form of GDP and CPI were used. Secondly, the study incorporated the three Composite Business Cycle indicators- leading, coincident and lagging. Lastly, behavioural indicators were used to incorporate the views of the actual businesses and their customers, which for this the study were the Business and Consumer Confidence Indices. After examining the effects the 7 macroeconomic variables had on business failure, the study found that there is a long-run relationship between the Composite Lagging Business Cycle indicator, the Business Confidence and Consumer confidence, which influenced Business Failure. Additionally, it was noted that Business Failure influence the Composite Lagging Business Cycle indicator in the long-run. The study additionally found that Business Failure may Granger Cause the Composite Leading Business Cycle indicator Outcomes of the study are potentially vital for entrepreneurs to understand the timing of entry into markets based on macroeconomic fluctuations through their cycles in certain industries. Business owners can make proactive financial and strategic decisions vital for survival of their business through the expansion and especially in the contraction cycles of the macroeconomic environments. / MT2017

Thesis advisor: Sanjay K. Chugh / Thesis advisor: Fabio Schiantarelli / My doctoral research focuses on the role of labor market frictions in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. I am currently pursuing three main lines of research that constitute the three chapters of this dissertation. The first chapter focuses on involuntary part-time employment as an additional margin used by firms to adjust to business cycle fluctuations. The chapter documents empirical regularities of involuntary part-time employment in the U.S. and furnishes a tractable analytical framework for studying this phenomenon that has gained so much attention in the years that followed the Great Recession. In the second chapter, which is joint work with Sanjay Chugh, Ryan Chahrour and Alan Finkelstein-Shapiro, we study the labor market wedge in the context of a search and matching model to understand how static and dynamic inefficiencies change over the business cycle. Measuring the labor market wedge and understanding its sources of movement is of great importance from a macroeconomic point of view, as existing research shows it holds a prominent place in explaining fluctuations in aggregate output. Finally, in the third chapter I study empirically the determinants of the job finding probability, a key object in the context of frictional labor markets. More specifically, I analyze how decisions on time allocation by the unemployed affect their chances of finding a job, and identify the activities that make more likely for an unemployed individual to receive and accept a job offer. Chapter 1. In recent years researchers and policymakers have shown renewed interest in involuntary part-time employment as a crucial indicator of labor market health. The fact that individuals have part-time jobs even though they would be willing to work more hours is evidence that resources in the economy are not employed at full capacity. This group represents almost 40 percent of total underemployment. Despite its large size and importance to policy-makers, surprisingly little literature addresses the empirical regularities or economic role this margin plays in determining labor market outcomes. In "Underemployment and the Business Cycle" I address several questions regarding involuntary part-time employment. First, how does involuntary part-time employment differ from the standard extensive and intensive margins? Second, what factors influence the choice of firms to use involuntary part-time workers? Third, how might economic policy contribute to the existence of involuntary part-time employment in the economy? And, fourth, have there been any changes over time in the response of involuntary part-time employment to changes in aggregate economic conditions and, if so, what explains them? To describe the empirical regularities of involuntary part-time employment, I use detailed micro-level data from longitudinally-linked monthly files of the Current Population Survey. A novel finding that emerges from the analysis of this dataset is that wages of involuntary part-time workers display higher volatility and lower persistence than those of their full-time counterparts, thus indicating a higher degree of flexibility. In addition, I find that changes in involuntary part-time employment are mostly explained by reallocation of workers from full-time to part-time positions within the firm, which involves more than just a mere reduction in hours worked. I then aggregate the data and compute business cycle statistics. Surprisingly, I find that the behavior of involuntary part-time employment resembles the behavior of unemployment more than the one of full-time employment. In fact, the results indicate that involuntary part-time employment is very volatile and strongly countercyclical. To understand the evidence I find at the micro and macro levels, I build an augmented search and matching model of the labor market featuring full-time and part-time employment, and a production function that combines both types of workers. The decision of whether a worker is full-time or part-time is made entirely by the firm, depending on the realizations of both aggregate and idiosyncratic productivity processes. The model is able to deliver the countercyclicality of involuntary part-time employment found in the data. The key mechanism to obtain this result is the relatively higher flexibility of part-time contracts that makes it more profitable for the firm to reallocate workers from full-time to part-time arrangements during recessions. Based on the model that captures key empirical facts, I conduct policy analysis to evaluate the effect of an increase in the cost of health insurance on involuntary part-time employment. The policy experiment predicts that an increase in the cost of health insurance provided by the firm to its full-time workers, such that their share in average full-time wages goes up by 1 percentage point, leads to an increase of steady state involuntary part-time employment by 10 percent, which nowadays would be equivalent to half a million additional involuntary part-time workers. I find evidence that involuntary part-time employment has become more volatile and persistent in the last 25 years. I study the impact that innovation in workforce management practices, a process that started in the 1990s and that has increased the degree of substitutability between full-time and part-time workers, may have had in changing the response over time of involuntary part-time employment to business cycle fluctuations. Impulse response analysis from the model indicates that an increase in the degree of substitutability makes involuntary part-time employment more sensitive to aggregate productivity shocks. Chapter 2. In "The Labor Wedge: A Search and Matching Perspective" we define and quantify static and dynamic labor market wedges in a search and matching model with endogenous labor force participation. Existing literature has generally centered on Walrasian labor markets in characterizing the inefficiencies, or ``gaps'', between labor demand and labor supply. However, given the conventional view in the profession that the matching process plays an important role in the labor market, the neoclassically-measured labor wedge suffers from a misspecification problem as it ignores the role of long-lasting relationships in explaining the cyclical pattern of the labor wedge. To construct the wedge we use a rigorously defined transformation function of the economy, which contains both the matching technology and the neoclassical production technology. Both technologies are primitives of the economy in the sense that a Social Planner must respect both processes. Given the model-appropriate transformation frontier and the household's static and dynamic marginal rates of substitution, we use data on the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, the vacancy rate, real consumption, real government spending, and real GDP to construct static and dynamic labor wedges. We find that, in a version of the model where all employment relationships turn over every period, the static labor wedge is countercyclical, a result that is consistent with existing literature. Once we consider long-lasting employment relationships, we can measure both static and dynamic wedges separately. We then find that, while the static wedge continues to be countercyclical, the dynamic (or intertemporal) wedge is procyclical. Since the latter is associated with the vacancy-posting decision of the firm, this result suggests that understanding the behavior of labor demand may be crucial to explaining the dynamic wedge. Our focus so far has been on obtaining a quantitative measure of both the static and dynamic wedges, and on analyzing their business cycle properties. Now we are working on extending this framework to provide a micro-founded explanation of the forces that could be driving the cyclical movements of the wedges. Chapter 3. Recent research has found that individuals who become unemployed allocate most of their forgone working hours into leisure rather than increasing the time devoted to job search activities. What is the rationale behind this decision? There are many factors that may affect the job search behavior of the unemployed. However, in this study I focus on a particular channel: the decision on how unemployed individuals allocate their time could be biased towards activities that increase their probability of finding a job. They might find more valuable to increase their social activities rather than looking formally for a job because this enhances their network, which could increase their chances of finding a job, even with less search effort. In "The Time Use Decisions of the Unemployed: A Survival Analysis", I conduct a duration analysis to estimate the effect of different time use allocations on the unemployment hazard rate using time use data from the Survey of Unemployed Workers in New Jersey. Defining "finding a job" as a failure, I estimate a single-spell, discrete-time duration model of unemployment with time-varying covariates using semi-parametric techniques. Given that I work with interval-censored data, I conduct the analysis using discrete time survival analysis techniques. The results indicate that education/training activities have a significant and positive impact on the hazard rate, i.e. they increase the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job, while leisure has the opposite effect. Furthermore, neither job-search nor networking have a significant effect on the hazard rate in the baseline specification. However, this result changes when incorporating into the regression interaction terms of these variables with a dummy that takes the value one if the individual is a long-term unemployed and zero otherwise. In this case, the coefficient associated with networking becomes positive and significant, while the coefficient of the interaction term is negative. This implies that networking has a positive effect on the hazard rate for short unemployment spells, but this effect weakens if the individual has been unemployed for a longer period. On the other hand, even after incorporating the interaction term, job search remains insignificant. These findings shed light on why individuals may not want to devote additional time to formal job search: it does not pay off with a higher likelihood of receiving a job offer, regardless of the length of the unemployment spell. On the other hand, other activities, such as investing in education or networking, are positively related to the probability of finding a job -- at least for short unemployment spells -- and thus it makes more sense for these individuals to devote more time to them.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / The literature on real business cycles finds that one reason why emerging economies are more volatile than developed small open economies is that they face greater financial frictions. Indeed, according to several measures of financial depth and access, financial systems in emerging countries are on average less developed than those in developed small open economies. Despite the lag in financial development, private credit, particularly unsecured credit to households, has been steadily increasing during the last two decades in emerging countries in Latin America. During this period of rising credit, various countries in the region observed an increase in the size of their middle income class population and the emergence of the vendor financing channel in their consumption credit market. Estimates by the World Bank suggest that the share of middle class households increased from 20.9 % in 1995 to 40.7 % in 2010. In addition, the share of poor households was approximately halved and reached 23.4 % at the end of this 15 year period. This phenomenon not only increased credit demand but also motivated the entry of new suppliers in the consumer credit market in countries like Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Brazil. In spite of a significant decline in unemployment in recent years, the lack of formal employment and poor credit history were still impeding many individuals from gaining access to consumer finance from traditional financial institutions. In order to enable new middle class shoppers access items typically offered by large retail stores, the retailers themselves started offering credit. In this dissertation, I study the relationship between middle class size, unsecured credit markets and aggregate consumption volatility in emerging countries. In the first chapter of this thesis, we examine the link between middle class size and consumption growth volatility using a sample of middle income countries. In the second chapter, we study the effect of an expansion of the middle class on vendor financing incentives and unsecured credit supply on its extensive margin. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a reduction in the share of financially excluded households in an emerging economy. In the first chapter, I empirically examine the effect of middle income class size on consumption growth volatility in emerging countries. Using a panel data of middle income countries, I find that a larger middle class size tends to increase aggregate consumption growth volatility, particularly at lower levels of financial system depth. Financial development plays a significant role in determining the sign of the marginal effect of middle class size on aggregate volatility. Unlike emerging countries, the effect of the size of the middle class and the role of financial development on consumption volatility in developed countries is ambiguous. The key message of this analysis is that as more households escape poverty thresholds and reach the middle income class status in developing and emerging economies, it becomes more important to deepen financial systems from the perspective of aggregate consumption volatility. In the second chapter, I explore through the lens of a theoretical model, potential reasons triggering an increase in credit supplied by the non traditional financial sector, i.e vendors, at the extensive margin. I find that a reduction in the average risk of default and an increase in the market size of credit customers raise vendor financing incentives. This model rationalizes the observation that the improvement of economic conditions of the low-income and financially constrained households potentially led to increased credit supply by vendors in several countries of Latin America. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a decline in household financial exclusion in a dynamic general equilibrium model suitable for emerging economies. Using Mexico as a case study, I estimate the model with Bayesian methods for the period 1995 to 2014. Standard measures of predictive accuracy suggest that the extended business cycle model with limited credit market participation outperforms a model with zero financial exclusion. The results of the estimation suggest that a rise in credit market participation in an emerging economy increases aggregate volatility of key macroeconomic aggregates, and that financial frictions play a key role in this relationship. I confirm this prediction by re-estimating the model for Mexico after splitting the sample into two non- overlapping decades. A key implication derived in this chapter is that a reduction of financial exclusion within an emerging country may lead to higher consumption growth volatility and trade balance volatility, and that fewer financial frictions dampen the marginal effect. As household financial access increases in these countries, a greater need for improving broad financial development measures arises.

Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / Thesis advisor: Christopher Baum / My dissertation focuses on the macroeconomics of emerging and developing nations. This group of economies is characterized by significant differences in terms of institutional quality, financial development, as well as other cultural, social, political parameters. In turn, these structural heterogeneities exert considerable influence on their domestic economic environment, specifically impacting key macroeconomic indicators such as output, investment, consumption, foreign capital flows, exchange rates etc. Understanding these nuanced relationships and analyzing them from various dimensions has served as the motivation and the foundation of my doctoral research. The first essay is an empirical and theoretical investigation of Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics in post-independence India. India's growth performance was touted as ordinary relative to the rest of the world during the first three decades after it gained independence in 1947. However, path-breaking deregulation and liberalization reforms in the 80s and 90s led to substantial growth acceleration and India's metamorphosis into a market-based economic system with strong international ties. This makes the Indian case study really unique and fascinating. Using annual time series data, we document key business cycle properties of the Indian economy. Output, consumption and investment are more volatile in India compared to its developed country counterparts. As in developed countries, consumption is less volatile and investment is more volatile than output in the Indian data. In contrast, investment is not highly correlated with output in India. Moreover, India's economic landscape has undergone significant changes, both in terms of the absolute level and cyclical fluctuations, across the planning horizon. The presence of structural break is reported for major macroeconomic variables when we decompose the data into pre- and post-reform categories. We also test whether a standard real business cycle (closed economy) model with India-specific parameters can replicate the stylized features of the business cycle. The model includes a tax on capital income which acts as a disincentive for future investment, and the results indicate that a high volatility of the tax shock is required to produce the low investment output correlation. The model performs reasonably well in matching the correlation dynamics observed in the data. In the second essay, I examine Foreign Reserve accumulation in Developing Countries through the lens of Institutional Quality and Financial Development. In recent times, several emerging markets have been providing the rest of the world, and especially the United States, with net resources in the form of current account surpluses. The most noteworthy aspect of the surge in upstream foreign capital flows has been the enormous increase in international reserves held by several emerging economies. Whereas private capital flows are broadly in sync with the standard neoclassical model, capital outflows from relatively high-productivity emerging markets can be explained by the accumulation of official reserve assets. I investigate the foreign reserve dynamics in developing countries; from both an empirical and theoretical dimension. Using a novel panel dataset combining aspects of openness, institutional quality, and financial development and an innovative clustering method; I present a new approach to identify cross-national structural heterogeneity and assess its relationship with foreign reserves. I use partition-based cluster analysis to document underlying reserve dynamics and identify systematic variation across and between different country groups. The resulting cluster outputs reflect the presence of cross-national variations in reserve accumulation. Moreover, a series of the scatter plots encapsulating various dimensions of institutional quality and financial development points towards the resounding presence of structural heterogeneity in foreign reserve dynamics in our developing country sample. Cross section and panel data regressions reinforce the initial hypotheses concerning the role of institutional and financial development in international reserve dynamics of the developing world. I also build a theoretical model embedding the key insights from the empirical analyses in order to propose a coherent framework for explaining the link between institutions, financial development reserve accumulation. The model underscores the importance of financial market efficiency and the institutional environment in explaining reserve dynamics of major developing countries. A series of comparative static exercises shed light on the impact of heterogeneity in institutional parameters and foreign reserve policy on select macroeconomic variables. In a nutshell, by going beyond the regional differences, we provide a unique vantage point to understand how disparities in institutional and financial conditions influence reserve dynamics in different country clusters. Our results indicate that income, openness, institutional quality and financial development play an instrumental role in explaining the underlying patterns of reserves accumulation in the developing world. However, the effects of these structural indicators are markedly different across clusters of relatively similar countries in terms of their magnitude as well as direction. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

O objetivo deste estudo é investigar, através do estimador de diferenças em diferenças, se a adoção da união monetária européia ampliou tanto o comércio quanto a correlação bilateral dos ciclos econômicos entre seus membros, em comparação com outras economias da OCDE. A evidência apresentada sugere ser esse o caso, nos indicando que a união monetária, como processo último das teorias de integração, pode não ser um fim, mas sim um meio para o alcance da integração entre as economias. / The goal of this paper is to investigate, by means of a simple difs-in-difs technique, whether the adoption of the monetary union among the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has increased both bilateral trade and bilateral correlation of business cycles between them rather than amidst other OECD economies. We present evidence suggesting this to be the case, witch tells us that monetary union, as the last stage of the theories of economic integration, may not be an end by itself, but means of achieving the economic integration.

This dissertation explores how local government policies affect pre-and postdisaster business resilience, in the context of institutional and neo-institutional frameworks. The study builds on past research on business vulnerability and resilience to examine government policies in the pre-disaster and response and recovery periods, and explore how government responses of varying types can contribute to different outcomes for local small businesses in the recovery period following hurricane disasters. The project examines two cases surrounding events in 2005 and their impact on business resilience: Hurricane Katrina and its effects on the New Orleans metropolitan area; and Palm Beach County's experience with Hurricane Wilma. The dissertation involves a mixed-method approach to the subject matter. The statistical analysis portion uses multiple regression analysis of surveys of government-registered business owners in the affected areas. Business resilience is examined in light of the p redictive power of the size of the disaster; the influence of the institutional policies in public procurement, and vii economic development through small business programs; the role of institutional culture; and finally business vulnerability. The interview portion involves interviews with public officials, and coding and analysis of the field texts of these discussions, for additional information about the role that institutions play in the resilience of businesses before and after disaster. The statistical results suggest that institutional culture; size of disaster, institutional policies (particularly in procurement practices), and vulnerability can play a role in determining the resilience of a local business community. / The statistical analysis is supported by interview data, which suggest that public institutions can create a culture of resilience in the business communities they serve, through support of proactive measures that make businesses less vulnerable, and creation and maintenance of supportive networks in the business community through public-private channels. Such approaches, combined with forward-thinking policy toward economic development as a general imperative, can create business communities that are more resilient in the face of disaster. / by Christopher L. Atkinson. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2011. / Includes bibliography. / Electronic reproduction. Boca Raton, Fla., 2011. Mode of access: World Wide Web.

In the second essay, we analyze the possibility of generating indeterminacy in the monetary models with nominal rigidities under increasing returns to scale technology. We find that in the monetary models with flexible wage (prices can be either flexible or staggered), the minimum degree of returns to scale necessary for local indeterminacy is inversely related to the magnitude of the labor-supply elasticity. This result is consistent with the one obtained in a real model in Benhabib and Farmer (1994), in particular, indeterminacy can only occur under very large labor-supply elasticity. Furthermore, we show that when incorporating nominal wage rigidities, indeterminacy can occur under an empirically plausible labor supply elasticity. However, the role of nominal rigidities for indeterminacy is very sensitive to the degree of capital adjustment costs, but it is robust to the assumptions of timing and the degrees of nominal rigidities. / The first essay discusses about indeterminacy under interest rate policy. We show that, with endogenous investment, virtually all monetary policy rules that set a nominal interest rate in response solely to expected future inflation induce real indeterminacy in models with (i) staggered prices, (ii) staggered prices and staggered wages, and (iii) staggered prices, staggered wages, and firm-specific capital. In (i), policy's response to current output can help significantly in ensuring determinacy with an infinite labor supply elasticity, but little with empirically plausible labor supply elasticity. In (ii), responding to output always helps a great deal, though under low price stickiness and without capital adjustment cost it may call for a moderate response to output in order to ensure determinacy for a wide range of response to inflation. In (iii), even a tiny response to output can always render equilibrium determinate for a wide range of response to inflation. We also find that the policy's response to lagged interest rate further enhances macroeconomic stability, though in many cases some response to output is still essential for ensuring a nonempty determinacy region, and even in the other cases responding to output often remains important in order to ensure determinacy for a wide range of response to inflation. Our results are quantitatively invariant to the presence of habit persistence in consumption. / The third essay studies the stability puzzle (Evans and McGough, 2002): why does indeterminacy almost always imply expectational unstability in RBC models? Following Meng and Yip (2008), we relax the restrictions on the magnitude of capital externalities with Cobb-Douglas technology. We find regions for joint indeterminacy and E-stability (i) when the felicity function is separable in consumption and leisure and there are negative capital externalities; or (ii) when the felicity function is non-separable and the social elasticity of production with respect to capital exceeds one. We further show that with the general utility function, a necessary condition for joint indeterminacy and E-stability is that the labor-demand curve is upward-sloping and steeper than the Frisch labor-supply curve. / This thesis consists of three essays on the issues of monetary policy, indeterminacy and expectational stability (E-stability). / Xue, Jianpo. / Adviser: Qinglai Meng. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-06, Section: A, page: 2178. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references. / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.