After numerous renewals and reignitions since the initiation of the "War on Cancer" more than five decades ago, the recent reignition of "Moonshot to Cure Cancer" points to the systemic persistence of cancer as a major cause of loss of life and livelihood. Literature points to the diminishing returns of cancer research through time, as well as heterogeneities in cancer research centers' innovation strategies. This dissertation focuses on the strategic decision by cancer research centers to invest their resources in conducting early phases of clinical trials on new candidate drugs/treatments (resembling exploration) or late phases of clinical trials that push established candidates towards acquiring FDA approvals (resembling exploitation). The extensive clinical trials data suggests that cancer research centers are not only different in their emphasis on exploratory trials, but also in how their emphasis is changing over time. This research studies the dynamics of this heterogeneity in cancer research centers' innovation strategies, how experiential learning and capability development interact to cause dynamics of divergence among learning agents, and how the heterogeneity among cancer research centers' innovation strategies is affected by the dynamics of learning from experience and capability development. The findings of this dissertation shows that endogenous heterogeneities can arise from the process of learning from experience and accumulation of capabilities. It is also shown that depending on the sensitivity of the outcome of decisions to the accumulated capabilities, such endogenous heterogeneities can be value-creating and thus, justified. Empirical analysis of cancer clinical trials data shows that cancer research centers learn from success and failure of their previous trials to adopt more/less explorative tendencies. It also demonstrates that cancer research centers with a history of preferring exploratory or FDA trials have the tendency to increase their preference and become more specialized in one specific type (endogenous specialization). These behavioral aspects of the cancer research centers' innovation strategies provide some of the tools necessary to model the behavior of the cancer research efforts from a holistic viewpoint. / Doctor of Philosophy / The "Moonshot to Cure Cancer" was renewed most recently in September 2022. However, renewal and reignition of this national collective effort is nothing new; this effort started as "War on Cancer" in 1971 and has been reignited numerous times. After more than 50 years of our collective battle to cure cancer, it claims almost 600,000 lives annually and remains as the second leading cause of death in the US. There are a wide variety of cancer research centers from all around the world contributing to this collective effort and they make considerably different decisions regarding their investment in research. There is evidence suggesting that some of the research centers' investment decisions are not optimal and can be improved. It has been shown that systems such as patent regulations can be revised to encourage such improved decisions among cancer research centers. This dissertation focuses on the process of clinical trials for new drugs/treatments for cancer. New drugs/treatments have to pass different phases of trials to ensure that they are safe and effective before they can acquire FDA approvals. Cancer research centers decide whether to invest in early phases of clinical trials for new drug/treatment candidates or invest in late phases of trials for candidates that have already passed the early phases. The clinical trials data show that there has been a sharp rise in number of early phases of trials on new drugs/treatments; however, the same rise cannot be seen in the late phases of trials resulting in approvals. It can also be seen that different research centers put different levels of emphasis on initiating early phases of trials for new drugs/treatments (exploration). In this dissertation, the hypothesis is that this ongoing dilemma that cancer research centers face to invest on how much emphasis to put on exploration in their clinical trials is affected by learning from experience. To test this hypothesis, a mathematical model is used to show differences in decisions can be causes solely by learning from experience, when the decision maker is learning "what to do" from success/failure of previous efforts and learning "how to do it" from practicing and accumulating the required skills. Then, the hypothesis is formally tested using the clinical trials data. The results show that cancer research centers learn from the success and failure of their previous exploratory trials when deciding on their emphasis on exploration. Also, they accumulate skills, resources, and capabilities relevant to the type of research the conduct more often and specialize in either of late- or early-phases of trials. The findings of this dissertation show that learning from experience can cause in differences in decisions. It also finds evidence that cancer research centers learn to place different levels of emphasis on exploration in their clinical trials. These findings can later be used in models of the cancer research ecosystem to study how funding structures and policies can be changed to improve the outcomes of our collective effort to cure cancer.

[pt] A presente tese tem por objetivo geral estudar os processos de planejamento dos pólos tecnológicos, envolvendo a articulação da temática específica desses pólos e a perspectiva do planejamento, a busca de elementos que propiciem a melhor compreensão da dinâmica dos processos de planejamento dos pólos e o registro dos resultados da experimentação de introdução de um modo de planejamento apropriado para os pólos, aplicado em um caso específico. Dadas as características da problemática desses pólos, esse objetivo é delimitado, privilegiando- se o enfoque do Planejamento Adaptativo. Nessa perspectiva, ao longo do trabalho articula-se as temáticas dos pólos e do planejamento. Inicialmente, apresenta-se uma contextualização das mudanças estruturais das últimas décadas da economia mundial, as quais são associadas às mudanças organizacionais e ao substancial aumento de cooperação entre agentes, observado a partir da década de oitenta. Assim, os pólos são vistos como uma dessas formas de cooperação. Em seguida, discute-se a experiência internacional mais representativa dos Science Parks, estabelecendo suas origens, seus vários conceitos, sua evolução, seu desempenho e as características comuns e distintivas entre países. Em uma discussão mais ampla, aborda-se a experiência brasileira dos pólos tecnológicos e de modernização, estabelecendo elementos de comparação com a experiência internacional discutida anteriormente. A análise é aprofundada discutindo-se, a partir da perspectiva do planejamento, a problemática envolvida no desenvolvimento dos pólos brasileiros, apontando seus altos níveis de complexidade, conflito e incerteza. O Planejamento Adaptativo é discutido em um capítulo especial, abrangendo a apresentação das suas raízes e das suas tendências, quais sejam o Redesenho Normativo de Sistemas e o Planejamento Não Sinóptico, e as metodologias específicas compreendidas por essas tendências. Discutem-se as implicações para o planejamento dos pólos,que decorrem dessa análise, confirmando-se que as abordagens do Planejamento Adaptativo não Sinóptico são as mais apropriadas para lidar com a problemática dos pólos. Aprofundando essa análise, caracteriza-se o sistema geral que as entidades gestoras dos pólos visam desenvolver, introduz-se o conceito de espaços de intervenção do planejamento e desenvolve-se um arcabouço para a avaliação no espaço interno dessas entidades. O trabalho inclui uma pesquisa exploratória e um estudo de caso, ambos realizados focalizando iniciativas no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Na pesquisa exploratória, estudam-se as iniciativas conduzidas pela Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro e a Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, estabelecendo-se elementos metodológicos para a análise dos processos de planejamento envolvidos nas incubadoras e parques tecnológicos. O estudo de caso é um trabalho mais profundo, visando a introdução da filosofia do Planejamento Adaptativo no desenvolvimento do Parque de Alta Tecnologia do Norte Fluminense. As conclusões da tese apontam que suas principais contribuições decorrem da articulação das temáticas dos pólos e do planejamento, estabelecendo bases para a melhor compreensão da dinâmica dos processos de planejamento dos pólos e fornecendo elementos metodológicos e conceituais para a análise e implementação do Planejamento Adaptativo. / [en] The general objective of this thesis is to study the planning processes in technological poles, involving: 1) the articulation of specific aspects of these poles and the planning perspective; 2) the search of elements for a better understanding of these processes dynamics and 3) the registration of the results, in a specific case,of the introduction of an appropriate planning mode for poles. Given the poles characteristics, the Adaptive Planning approach is adopted. First, the context of the structural changes in the world economy is presented, associated to organizational changes and to the increasing cooperation among agents observed since the eighties.In this sense, the poles are viewed as one form of cooperation.Next, the most representative international experiences of Science Parks are discussed, including their origins, concepts, evolution and performance as well as the common and distinctive characteristics of selected countries. In a broad discussion, the Brazilian experience in modernization and technological poles is analyzed, establishing comparative elements with international experience. Adaptive Planning is presented in a special chapter, including its roots and its tendencies, namely, Normative System Redesign and Non Synoptic Adaptive Planning, with the specific methodologies they encompass. The analysis is deepened with a discussion, from the planning viewpoint, of the problems involved in the development of the Brazilian poles, emphasizing their high degrees of conflict, complexity and uncertainty. The discussion of the analysis`results confirm that the Non Synoptic Adaptive Planning tendency matches with the problems of poles. The general system that the coordinating organization of the pole aims to develop is characterized, the concept of intervention spaces of planning is introduced and a framework for evaluation at the internal space of these organizations is developed. The thesis includes an exploratory research and a case study, both focusing initiatives in Rio de Janeiro State. The exploratory research includes cases of technological poles in the Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro and the Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro,establishing methodological elements for the analysis of the planning processes involved in incubators and technology parks. The case study aimed at introducting the Adaptive Planning philosophy in the development of the Parque de Alta Tecnologia do Norte Fluminense. Finally, the conclusions of the thesis suggest that the major contributions come from the articulation of the poles and planning thematics, establishing a basis for a better understanding of the dynamics in these planning processes and providing methodological and conceptual elements for the analysis and implementation of Adaptive Planning.

The present Master Thesis is a macro-level comparative case study that addresses the problem of most member states' lack of adequate motivation to acquire innovative military capabilities and contribute them to the North Atlantic Alliance. There has been a significant gap between NATO's ambition and its military capability since at least the 1999 Kosovo Crisis. Even today, a couple of years after the adoption of the longawaited new Strategic Concept, which confirmed NATO's role in crisis management beyond its borders, the evaluations of the recent NATO operation in Libya hint to fact that the gap persists. The question is: what factors play the most significant role in shaping state behaviour within NATO and what can be done to stimulate the member states' proactive attitude? The problem is addressed through the prism of Neorealism, which emphasizes structural constraints of state behaviour, and Constructivism, which, for its part, highlights the importance of domestic factors, namely state identity. Based on the results of the fuzzy-set analysis, it is argued that the harmonization of NATO's and EU's capability development initiatives, as well as the eventual military integration of lower-capability NATO member states is most likely to reset the balance between the Alliance's ambition and available...