The world’s freshwater resources are being placed under increasing pressure owing to growth in population, economic development, improved standards of living, agricultural intensification (linked mainly to irrigation), pollution and mismanagement of available freshwater resources. Already, in many parts of the Orange River Catchment, water availability has reached a critical stage. It has become increasingly evident that water related problems can no longer be resolved by water managers alone, owing to the problems becoming more interconnected with other development related issues, as well as with social, economic, environmental, legal and political factors. With the advent of climate change and the likelihood of increases in extreme events, water managers’ awareness of uncertainties and critical reflections on the adequacy of current management approaches is increasing. In order to manage water resources effectively a more holistic approach is required than has hitherto been the case, in which technological, social and economic development are linked with the protection of natural ecosystems and with dependable projections of future climatic conditions. To assess the climate risk connected with rural and urban water management, and to develop adaptive strategies that can respond to an increasingly variable climate that is projected into the future and help to reduce adverse impacts, it is necessary to make connections between climate related hazards, climate forecasts as well as climate change, and the planning, design, operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation of water related infrastructure. Therefore, adaptive water resources management (AWRM), which in essence is “learning by doing”, is believed to be a timely extension of the integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as it acknowledges uncertainty and is flexible in that it allows for the adjustment of actions based on information learned about the system. Furthermore, it is suggested that climate risk management be imbedded within the AWRM framework. The objective of the research presented in this thesis is to develop techniques to integrate state-of-the-art climate projection scenarios – which forms part of the first step of the adaptive management cycle – downscaled to the regional/local scale, with hydro-climatic hazard determination – which forms part of the first step in the risk management process – in order to simulate projected impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment (defined in this study as those areas of the catchment that exist within South Africa and Lesotho). The techniques developed and the results presented in this study can be used by decision-makers in the water sector in order to make informed proactive decisions as a response to projected future impacts of hydro-climatic hazards – all within a framework of AWRM. Steps towards fulfilling the above-mentioned objective begins by way of a comprehensive literature review; firstly of the study area, where it is identified that the Orange River Catchment is, in hydro-climatic terms, already a high risk environment; and secondly, of the relevant concepts involved which are, for this specific study, those pertaining to climate change, and the associated potential hydro-climatic impacts. These include risk management and its components, in order identify how hazard identification fits into the broader concept of risk management; and water resources management practices, in order to place the issues identified above within the context of AWRM. This study uses future projections of climate from five General Circulation Models, all using the SRES A2 emission scenario. By and large, however, where techniques developed in this study are demonstrated, this is done using the projections from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM which, relative to the other four available GCMs, is considered to provide “middle of the road” projections of future climates over southern Africa. These climate projections are used in conjunction with the locally developed and widely verified ACRU hydrological model, as well as a newly developed hydro-climatic database at a finer spatial resolution than was available before, to make projections regarding the likelihood and severity of hydro-climatic hazards that may occur in the Orange River Catchment. The impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards, viz. design rainfalls, design floods, droughts and sediment yields are investigated, with the results including a quantitative uncertainty analysis, by way of an index of concurrence from multiple GCM projections, for each of the respective analyses. A new methodology for the calculation of short duration (< 24 hour) design rainfalls from daily GCM rainfall projections is developed in this study. The methodology utilises an index storm approach and is based on L-moments, allowing for short duration design rainfalls to be estimated at any location in South Africa for which daily GCM rainfall projections exist. The results from the five GCMs used in this study indicate the following possible impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment: · Design rainfalls of both short and long duration are, by and large, projected to increase by the intermediate future period represented by 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the more distant future period 2081 - 2100. · Design floods are, by and large, projected to increase into the intermediate future, and even more into the more distant future; with these increases being larger than those projected for design rainfalls. · Both meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to decrease, both in terms of magnitude and frequency, by the period 2046 - 2065, with further decreases projected for the period 2081 - 2100. Where increases in meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to occur, these are most likely to be in the western, drier regions of the catchment. · Annual sediment yields, as well as their year-to-year variability, are projected to increase by the period 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the period 2081 - 2100. These increases are most likely to occur in the higher rainfall, and especially in the steeper, regions in the east of the catchment. Additionally, with respect to the above-mentioned hydro-climatic hazards, it was found that: · The statistic chosen to describe inter-annual variability of hydro-climatic variables may create different perceptions of the projected future hydroclimatic environment and, hence, whether or not the water manager would decide whether adaptive action is necessary to manage future variability. · There is greater uncertainty amongst the GCMs used in this study when estimating design events (rainfall and streamflow) for shorter durations and longer return periods, indicating that GCMs may still be failing to simulate individual extreme events. · The spatial distribution of projected changes in meteorological and hydrological droughts are different, owing to the complexities introduced by the hydrological system · Many areas may be exposed to increases in hydrological hazards (i.e. hydrological drought, floods and/or sediment yields) because, where one extreme is projected to decrease, one of the others is often projected to increase. The thesis is concluded with recommendations for future research in the climate change and hydrological fields, based on the experiences gained in undertaking this study. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

This thesis examines playas as integrated ecosystems, through investigation of long- and short-term processes associated with playa geomorphology, hydrology and diatom ecology, in playas of the Yarra Yarra drainage system of Western Australia. This landscape approach was conducted at a range of scales and consequently revealed a level of heterogeneity not previously described in Australian playas. The key result and common thread linking the three facets of the playas investigated is the importance of hydroperiod in defining the playa environment. The morphology and distribution of playas are described and the results presented of an examination of potential mechanisms determining intra-system variability. Measurements of the physical attributes of the playas, including length, area, shape, density and orientation, were made through Geographic Information System analysis and detailed interpretation of aerial photography. Two main morphological groups are distinguished: small (<10 ha), elliptical to circular playas with a NNW-SSE orientation; and large (>30 ha), elongated playas. Regional patterns in geomorphic attributes are markedly different between the west and east sides of the system. The boundary between the two regions coincides approximately with rainfall distribution. In this respect, climate is an overarching driver of geomorphological variation but sub-catchment characteristics are also critical determinants. Littoral drift and segmentation processes that are common to coastal lagoons but not commonly described in playas were identified from visual interpretation of aerial photographs of spits, bars and cuspate shorelines. Six small playas, representing an hydrological continuum from mostly wet to mostly dry, were selected for investigation of their hydrology and diatom ecology, enabling assessment ii of the variability of hydrology, hydrochemistry and of the effects of different hydrological environments on the distribution of taxa. Hydroperiod was highly variable and central to determining playa geomorphology and biology. In the six playas it ranged from 19 to over 211 days, and filling frequency from 1 to 3 cycles between 2002 and 2004, reflecting rainfall and sub-catchment variability. Monitoring a series of nested piezometers revealed that the playas were net discharge points for ground water over the period of survey. However, small local vertical head variations indicate ground water does not discharge at the same rate across the playa surfaces and that playas may have short-lived phases of ground water recharge. Hydrochemically, the playas are typical of salt lakes in Australia. They displayed a wide range of salinity values, neutral to alkaline pH and ionic composition similar to sea water. It is postulated that the geochemical evolution of waters in the playas follows a pathway where low salinity recharge waters with dilute sea water salts progress to Na-Cl dominated brines through evaporative concentration. Surface waters showed an ionic dominance consistent with sea water with minor variations attributed to transitional phases in the geochemical evolution of the waters. Shallow ground waters showed a common and consistent pattern of ionic dominance: Na+ >Mg2+ >K+ >Ca2+ : Cl- >SO4 2- >HCO3 ->CO3 2-.

The seasonal variation and landscape regulation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in streams have been studied in two watersheds in the boreal zone. The seasonal variation was found to be highly correlated to variations in runoff. An increase in runoff was always accompanied with an increase in DOC concentration. However, there were indications that the TOC concentration was restricted by the soil TOC pool during snowmelt. The main factors affecting DOC exports varied between seasons. During winter baseflow the spatial variation in DOC exports was strongly influenced by wetland coverage, during snowmelt the exports were correlated to factors describing the size and location of the catchment, and during the snow-free season they were heavily affected by the proportions of wetlands and forests in the catchments. Small headwaters had the highest terrestrial DOC export, per unit area. The properties of the DOC changed during spring flood, towards lower molecular weight and more aliphatic compounds. These changes affected the bioavailability of the DOC, which increased during spring flood. There were also differences in the DOC properties between wetlands and forest soils; the forested soils yielded DOC with lower molecular weight (measured as 254 nm/365 nm light absorbance ratios), largely from superficial layers that were activated during high flow events, while wetland soils generally provided a more constant carbon source with higher molecular weight. The majority of the DOC was exported by wetlands, but most of the short-term bioavailable DOC (BP7) was derived from the forests, during the spring flood period, indicating that bacterial production in streams and lakes is likely to be almost entirely based on DOC exported from forested areas during, and some time after, the spring flood event.

The main purpose of this study was to assess the negative external impact of water pollution upon water resources and the users thereof within urban areas.

The main purpose of this study was to assess the negative external impact of water pollution upon water resources and the users thereof within urban areas.

Increased sediment loads within river catchments have well-documented detrimental effects on water quality and catchment management plans are required to address reduction and mitigation of these problems. In order to do this it is essential that tools are available that deliver reliable sediment generation data at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Currently, most sediment generation models do not include bank erosion individually as a sediment source. Therefore, to enable improved accuracy in predictions of future sediment pressures under environmental change, explicit modelling of the rates of sediment production by the bank erosion is required to provide a more complete representation of the catchment sediment budget. In this study, an existing prototype national bank erosion index has been refined. Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) digitised overlays, channel migration rates were calculated for several UK catchments. Relationships between the rate of channel bank erosion and factors controlling the rates of channel migration were investigated, including channel sinuosity, slope, upstream catchment area, and restriction of migration due to valley width. Significant correlations between bank erosion and sinuosity, upstream area and channel confinement were observed. The non-linear influence of channel planform geometry (curvature and sinuosity) on migration rates was further investigated using an existing meander migration model. A new bank erosion model was developed to incorporate the influence of both channel confinement and sinuosity. As the model incorporates the key physical controls on bank erosion, hence it is expected that it will have wide applicability in catchment- to national-scale bank erosion assessment. A computationally efficient catchment routing model was developed. Data output from a newly developed catchment overland sediment and runoff estimation model (ADAS APT) was used as input to the routing model. The newly developed bank erosion model and an existing floodplain sedimentation model were incorporated within the routing methodology to provide a catchment sediment budget model. The model was applied to the Exe catchment, Devon, UK and validated against observational data. Model estimations of annual sediment generation through bank erosion, sediment deposition on floodplains, and sediment load at the catchment outlet were within the range of observed values. The catchment sediment budget model developed in this thesis provides a more comprehensive representation of catchment sediment processes than existing alternative methodologies.

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

<p>A distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model has been developed using a GIS integrated with a dynamic programming module (PCRaster). The model has been developed within the framework of the EU-project TWINBAS at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, and is intended for use in WATSHMAN – a tool for watershed management developed at IVL. The model simulates runoff from a catchment based on daily mean values of temperature and precipitation. The GIS input data consist of maps with soil type, land-use, lakes, rivers and a digital elevation model. The model is a hybrid between a conceptual and a physical model. The snow routine uses the degree-day method, the evapotranspiration routine uses the Blainey-Criddle equation, the infiltration routine is based on Green-Ampt, groundwater is modelled assuming a linear reservoir and the flow routing is done with the kinematic wave equation combined with Manning’s equation.</p><p>The GIS and the hydrologic model are embedded in one another, allowing calculation of each parameter in each grid cell. The output from the model consists of raster maps for each time step for a pre-defined parameter, or a time series for a parameter at a specified grid cell. The flow network is generated from the digital elevation model and determines the water flow on the grid scale. The smallest possible grid size is thus obtained from the resolution of the digital elevation model. In this implementation the grid size was 50 m x 50 m. The raster structure of the model allows for easy use of data from climate models or remotely sensed data.</p><p>The model was evaluated using the River Kölstaån catchment, a part (110 km2) of the Lake Mälaren catchment, which has its outflow in central Stockholm, Sweden. The integration of the GIS and the hydrologic model worked well, giving significant advantages with respect to taking lakes and land-use into account. The evaluation data consisted of observed run-off for the period 1981 to 1991. The result from the calibration period shows a great variation in Reff (Nash & Sutcliffe) between the years, the three best years having Reff-values of 0.70 – 0.80. The Reff-value for the entire calibration period was 0.55 and 0.48 for the validation period, where again there was great variation between different years. The volume error was 0.1 % for the calibration period and -21 % for the validation period. The evapotranspiration was overestimated during the validation period, which is probably a result of excess rain during the calibration period. The results are promising and the model has many advantages – especially the integrated GIS-system – compared to the present WATSHMAN model. It could be further developed by introducing a second groundwater storage and refining the evapotranspiration and infiltration routine. Given the promising results, the model should be evaluated in other larger and hillier areas and preferably against more distributed data.</p> / <p>En helt distribuerad GIS-baserad hydrologisk modell för modellering i avrinningsområden på lokal/regional skala har byggts upp i PCRaster. Arbetet utfördes på IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB inom ramen för EU-projektet TWINBAS, som har som mål att identifiera kunskapsluckor inför implementeringen av EU:s ramdirektiv för vatten. Modellen är tänkt att användas i WATSHMAN (Watershed Management System), IVLs verktyg för vattenplanering i avrinningsområden där bland annat källfördelningsberäkningar och åtgärdsanalyser ingår. Den uppbyggda modellen är en hybrid mellan en fysikalisk och en konceptuell hydrologisk modell och predikterar vattenföring på pixelnivå i avrinningsområden. Simuleringen drivs av dygnsmedelvärden för temperatur och nederbörd och modellen tar hänsyn till markanvändning, jordart, topografi och sjöar. De modellekvationer som används är grad-dagsmetoden för snö, Blainey-Criddle för evapotranspiration, Green-Ampt för infiltration, linjärt magasin för grundvatten och Mannings ekvation för flödesrouting.</p><p>Det geografiska informationssystemet och den hydrologiska modellen är helt integrerade, vilket gör att alla parametervärden beräknas för varje enskild pixel. Som utdata ger modellen en rasterkarta för varje tidssteg för en i förväg bestämd parameter, eller tidsserier över parametervärden i definierade punkter. Vattnet transporteras i ett utifrån höjdmodellen genererat flödesnätverk och vattnets flödesväg bestäms därmed på pixelnivå. Minsta möjliga pixelstorlek bestäms således utifrån höjdmodellens upplösning, och var vid denna tillämpning 50 m gånger 50 m. Modellens uppbyggnad med raster gör det enkelt att använda data från klimatmodeller eller fjärranalys.</p><p>Avrinningsområdet för Kölstaån, ett biflöde till Köpingsån i Mälardalen, har använts för att utvärdera modellen. Integreringen av GIS och hydrologisk modell fungerade mycket väl och gav stora fördelar t ex vad gäller att ta hänsyn till sjöar och markanvändning. Modellen kalibrerades med data från åren 1981 till 1986 och det erhållna volymfelet var då 0,1 % och Reff-värdet (Nash & Sutcliffe) 0,55. Stora variationer erhölls dock mellan åren; för de tre bästa åren låg Reff-värdet mellan 0,70 och 0,80. Ett mycket kraftigt nederbördstillfälle samt regleringar i huvudfåran av vattendraget ligger troligtvis bakom de mindre väl beskrivna åren. Även under valideringsperioden (1987 till 1991) fungerade modellen väl, så när som på att avdunstningen överskattades på vårarna (antagligen beroende av det stora regnet under kalibreringen), och Reff-värde och volymfel hamnade på 0,48 respektive -21 %, även här med stora variationer mellan åren. Resultaten är lovande och modellen har många fördelar jämfört med den nuvarande WATSHMAN-modellen. Den skulle kunna förbättras ytterligare genom att dela upp grundvattnet i två magasin samt förfina evapotranspirations- och infiltrationsrutinerna. Den höjdmodellsbaserade modellen bör utvärderas även i andra mer kuperade områden samt mot mer distibuerade data.</p>

Projections of population growth, urban expansion and decreasing water resources in arid and semi-arid regions have increased the importance of urban runoff as a potential renewable water resource that, through enhanced recharge, can augment groundwater supplies. However, it is unclear how urbanization alters hydrologic and hydrochemical responses of small catchments ( < 5 km²) in these regions. This body of work identified controls on the spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic and hydrochemical responses of urbanized catchments in the Tucson Metropolitan area of semi-arid southern Arizona. The temporal distribution and characteristics of rainfall did not control urban catchment hydrology where overall, there was no evidence of significant seasonal catchment wetting. Land use did not control hydrologic responses although runoff was more frequent and of longer duration in urbanized than in non-urban catchments. Runoff depth and runoff ratios were controlled by the combined effect of imperviousness, the characteristics of the stormwater drainage system and rainfall depth. Runoff hydrochemistry did not vary in response to land cover or imperviousness. Rapid increases in solute stores between rainfall-runoff vents resulted in invariant seasonal runoff solute concentrations. Four major factors controlling runoff hydrochemistry were identified: 1) landscape heterogeneity and catchment connectivity, 2) the spatial extent of pervious and biogeochemically active areas, 3) the efficiency of overland flow and runoff routing mobilization and 4) the extent of catchment wetting. The stormwater drainage system, and specifically the characteristics of the stream channel substrate, emerged as significant controls of runoff responses. Conservative transport of biogeochemically active solutes during runoff was observed in piped, concrete and gravel lined waterways, whereas solute sourcing and retention was more dynamic in grass lined reaches. Biogeochemical processing in the stream channel substrate between runoff events indicates that pervious waterways alter soil solute pools available for subsequent solute transport, and that stream channel biogeochemical processes are tightly linked to the characteristics of the channel substrate and cyclical channel wetting and drying. This body of work indicates that successful stormwater management strategies in the semi-arid Southwest should focus on the stormwater drainage network and the presence, density and characteristics of pervious channels.

Water management is undergoing a transformation towards integration, source control and ecological thinking. In the EU, the Water Framework Directive can be considered as a driver towards this new approach to water management. Innovations are deemed necessary to deliver this ideal of water management. In this thesis efforts by water sewerage companies in England & Wales to rectify agricultural pollution at source are viewed as an organisational innovation towards more sustainable water management. These source control interventions can help achieving the goals of the Water Framework Directive by reducing diffuse pollution from agriculture, fostering participation in water management and by reducing overall cost of implementation. This thesis contributes to understanding the process of change in water management by developing a model of the innovation-decision process. Insights about how innovation and therefore change can be influenced is generated by applying this model to the process of source control intervention adoption by water and sewerage companies. This research employed a flexible research design using comparative case studies. Each of the 10 water and sewerage companies in England and Wales represented an individual case. Data were collected in two phases using semi-structured interviews with selected water and sewerage company representatives. Thematic analysis, recurrence counts and content analysis were applied to analyse interviews. It was found that water companies are likely to contribute towards integrated approaches to water management, since there is a trend to adopt source control intervention. Change in water management is influenced by the interaction of factors from the domains: ‗Natural-Physical‘, ‗Organisational Characteristics‘, ‗Regulatory- Institutional‘ and ‗Innovation Attributes‘. The rate of change by water and sewerage companies is governed by a combination of asset characteristics, environmental state changes and the funding cycle. Furthermore, innovation is triggered by direct regulation and regulation that requires the gathering of information. Contrary to this flexible or framework regulation performs better in guiding the direction of change.