In October 2000 the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA) was launched. The purpose of the IIRSA is to improve integration of the South American countries and intraregional trade between them. One of the ultimate goals is to promote sustainable growth. The purpose of this paper is to find out if a better quantity and quality of transport infrastructure increases intraregional trade in South America. It is found that the quantity of transport infrastructure increases intraregional trade. On the other hand, there is no evidence for the quality of transport infrastructure increasing intraregional trade in South America. Furthermore, this paper investigates whether economic growth can be obtained through more trade. In other words, this paper examines if trade causes growth. The results do not confirm the trade-growth causality for all countries. The difference between the existence of a trade-growth causal relationship or not could be explained by the core commodities that the different South American countries export.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the predictive power of the variables advanced notice of dismissal (layoffs) and vacancies for the unemployment rate. Based on the Box Jenkins Methodology, the paper makes use of Granger causality and out-of-sample tests to compare the forecast performance of a naïve reference model and the two models extended to include either lagged values of layoffs or vacancies. It is shown that layoffs make up a significant leading variable, exhibiting particularly strong predictive power at forecast horizons of 2-6 months. It is also shown that the predictive power of vacancies is more ambiguous. Vacancies constitute a valuable explanatory variable for the unemployment rate, but does not possess the same leading, predictive qualities as layoffs.

The dependence on oil has increased in many nations as a result of increasing industrialization and oil has been the factor of many crises as well as many wars. This paper examines how the price of oil affects the unemployment in Sweden. The case of Sweden is interesting since its politics are very different compared to other industrialized countries when it comes to unemployment and benefits. Our main objective is to see whether a change in the oil price will cause a change in unemployment at a later stage. We perform linear regression analysis relating current changes in the variables and Granger causality tests to conclude if there exists a direct relationship. The result we received from our linear regression test on current changes and our Granger causality test showed a relationship between the price of oil and unemployment in Sweden. In the linear regression relating current changes in these variables, a positive relationship was indicated. Due to the fact that some of the coefficient estimates are positive and some are negative in the Granger causality regressions, we can not conclude whether an increase in the price of oil will cause a positive or negative effect on unemployment.

Although there is a considerable evidence on the link between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in developing countries, the causal relationship of these two variables still remains an important question. This study attempts to examine the possible causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in Turkey, during the period 1992 (Quarter 2) – 2006 (Quarter 3). We employed the Johansen Cointegration and Granger Causality tests for detecting the long run or short run causality. Our results showed that there is no long run relationship between the variables, which led us to search the causality in the short run. However we couldn’t find any evidence for a causality running from FDI to economic growth or economic growth to FDI in Turkey.

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Purpose – The aim of this study is to explore how outsourcing affects developing countries. The effects are examined for Ghana and Vietnam, which have recently become attractive outsourcing locations. They are compared with China and India, both well known for their outsourcing sectors and their attractiveness as outsourcing locations.   Design/methodology/approach – In this research paper an exploratory method is applied. During the examination economic data provided by supranational organizations is used to measure the effects of outsourcing. Data is collected to match the requirements of the applied triangular model for measuring. Background for the data collection is the triangular model by Granger. Key figures for observation are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exports, and their correlations. Validity and reliability is ensured through cross examination of the model.   Findings – The effects of outsourcing vary a lot. All key figures rose in general during the observed 30 years, from 1981 till 2010. The correlations show that there are eventual relations of the figures, although direct relations each by each year are not found. The most remarkable finding is that FDI might indeed push the exports. Export rates are rising in the years after the investment is done. The relation of FDI and GDP show that there can be interrelations as well, but if the GDP is increased in higher rates than the FDI is done. An overall result of the examination is that Vietnam seems to rely heavily on outsourcing as they export almost ¾ of the fabrications whereas it is assumed that Ghana tries more on development and improvement of the whole economy.   Originality/value – This research paper looks at the often discussed phenomenon outsourcing by focussing on its economic effects by focussing on the effects for the developing countries Vietnam and Ghana. It provides the reader with new aspects to be considered in the surrounding of outsourcing. Further investigations are necessary to explore if the found can be generalised.

This study investigates the causal relationship among comparative advantage, exports and economic growth by using the time series annual data for the period of 1980-2009 on 13 developing countries. The purpose is to develop an understanding of causal relationship and explore the differences or similarities among different sectors of several developing countries that are in different stages of development and how their comparative advantage influences the exports, which further effect the economic growth of the country. The co-integration and the vector error correction techniques are used to explore the causal relationship among the three variables. The results suggest bi-directional or mutual long run relationship between comparative advantage, exports and economic growth in most of the developing countries. The overall long run results of the study favour the export led growth hypothesis that exports precede the growth in case of all countries except for Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The short run mutual relationship exists mostly among the three variables except for Malaysian exports and growth and its comparative advantage and GDP and for Singapore‟s exports and growth. The short run causality runs from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). So overall, short run results favour export led growth in all cases except for Malaysia, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

This thesis examines the linkages between macroeconomic variables and the number of domestic Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) in Sweden during 1998-2011 (in terms of changes). This study treats stationary times series data, from which multiple regression models are assembled. These models include gross domestic product, OMX Stockholm price index, lending rate, money supply, debt rate, consumer confidence, the unemployment rate and capacity utilization as explanatory variables. Aggregate number of M&As is set to the dependent variable. The outcome was that gross domestic product, money supply, unemployment rate and stock prices can help explain fluctuations in M&A activity during different time frames. However, the majority of the explanation for fluctuations in M&A activity lies within factors beyond ourestimation model. Through a Granger-causality test, we establish if the significant variables can help to predict M&A activity and vice versa. During different time periods gross domestic product and unemployment helps in predicting M&A activity. M&A activity also improves the prediction of gross domestic product in some time periods.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.

This study mainly explores the effect of market states (price and returns) on the relationship between spot and futures oil prices and targets three important issues: long-run cointegration, causalities, and market efficiency. Based on previous studies exhibiting bi-directional causality between spot and futures oil prices, this study employs quantile regressions to examine the possible feedback effect in their long-run cointegration and their causalities. In particular, it allows for exploring the possible asymmetric responses between spot and futures markets. The empirical results herein find that the long-run cointegrated relationship between contemporaneous spot and futures prices is impacted by the states of the spot markets. Similarly, whether futures oil prices lead spot oil prices is relevant with the states of the futures markets. This study also examines the efficiency of crude oil markets and shows that the efficiency is related to the length of futures contracts. These findings offer some implicative suggestions and strategies.