The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.

<p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.</p>

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att utreda om det finns något samband mellan företags finansiella prestation och hur företagen betygsätts utifrån deras engagemang i aktiviteter som rör företagens sociala ansvarstaganden. Metod: Denna studie har utifrån en positivistisk forskningsfilosofi antagit en deduktiv ansats med hypoteser samt en kvantitativ forskningsdesign med en paneldatametod i form av tvärsnittsdesign. Denna typ av forskningsdesign användes för att samla in sekundärdata från flera år. Studiens population uppgår till 171 företag och urvalet till 130 börsnoterade företag på Stockholmsbörsen. Sekundärdata för CSP för år 2009 till 2013 hämtades från Folksam Index för ansvarsfullt företagande. Sekundärdata för finansiell prestation hämtades från årsredovisningar från Retriever och Datastream. Analysering av all sekundärdata gjordes utifrån deskriptiv statistik och multipla regressionsanalyser i statistikprogrammet SPSS. Resultat och slutsats: Studiens resultat indikerar på att sambandet mellan CSP och CFP är signifikant negativt när Tobin´s Q avser CFP. Detta innebär att företagens marknadsvärde tenderar till att minska när deras sociala prestation ökar. Vidare gällande ROA finner studien inget signifikant samband mellan CSP och CFP. En antydan på ett svagt positivt samband ges dock, om än utan någon signifikans. Resultaten kan förklaras med hjälp av teorier såsom intressentteorin samt den institutionella teorin. Förslag till vidare forskning: Efter det nya EU-direktivet trätt i kraft och applicerats under en period är ett förslag att undersöka effekterna av detta direktiv. Vidare vore det intressant att utföra en undersökning som analyserar och jämför förändringar över de enskilda åren då denna studie endast använt sig av ett genomsnittsvärde för alla variabler under åren 2009 till 2013. Det vore även intressant att undersöka om de branscher som enligt Folksam (2013) löper de största verksamhetsriskerna angående hållbarheten också ökar sin sociala prestation över åren. Vidare bör dessa branscher även undersökas för att se varför vissa branscher uppvisar ett signifikant samband där andra branscher saknar detta samband. Uppsatsens bidrag: Utifrån denna studie får berörda parter ett teoretiskt bidrag som visar en ny mätmetod och ett annat perspektiv på sambandet mellan social- och finansiell prestation, jämfört med tidigare forskning. Studien öppnar även upp ett forskningsområde för undersökning av branscher och varför vissa branscher uppvisar ett signifikant samband där andra branscher saknar detta samband. Det praktiska bidraget i denna studie ger en fingervisning om hur det finansiella resultatet kan komma att påverkas med en högre grad av hållbarhetsarbete för att möta det nya EU-direktivet. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between companies’ financial performance and how the companies are rated on their involvement in Corporate Social Responsibility-activities. Method: This study, based on a positivist research philosophy, adopted a deductive approach with hypothesis testing and a quantitative research design with a panel-data method in the form of a cross-sectional design. This type of research design was used to collect secondary data from several years. The study population amounts to 171 companies while the sample amounts up to 130 listed companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Secondary data for CSP for the year 2009 until 2013 was retrieved from Folksam Corporate responsibility index for each year. Secondary data for the financial performance was retrieved from Retriever and Datastream databases. In addition, analysis of all the collected secondary data was based on descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis in SPSS. Results and Conclusions: The study’s results indicate that the relationship between CSP and CFP are significantly negative when Tobin’s Q refers to CFP. This means that the companies’ market value tends to decrease as their social performance increases. Furthermore, this study doesn’t find any significant relationship between CSP and ROA as CFP. An indication of a weak positive relationship is provided, however, albeit with no significance. The result can be explained by theories as stakeholder theory and institutional theory. Suggestions for further research: A suggestion is to examine the effects of the relationship of CSP and CFP after the EU directive comes into force. Furthermore, it would be interesting to conduct a study which analyzes and compares the changes over the individual years since this study only adopted an average value for all the variables during the years 2009 until 2013. It would also be interesting to investigate whether the industries according to Folksam (2013) runs the biggest business risks relating to sustainability is also increasing its social performance over the years. Furthermore, these industries should also be examined to see why some industries show a significant correlation where other industries lack this connection. Contributions of the thesis: Based on this study, concerned parties receives a theoretical contribution that shows a new measuring method and another perspective on the relationship of social- and financial performance, compared to previous research. This study also opens a field of research for the study of industries and why some industries show a significant correlation where other industries lack this correlation. The practical contribution in this study gives an indication of how the financial result may be affected by a higher degree of sustainability efforts to meet the new EU directive.

[pt] A presente pesquisa se insere em um contexto caracterizado pela crescente discussão de geração de valor ao acionista intensificada pela crise econômica ocorrida entre os anos de 2008 e 2009, que fez crescer diversas dúvidas relacionadas à doutrina de maximização do valor para o acionista principalmente no que tange as estratégias para alcançar este objetivo. Neste contexto, a definição e a escolha da estratégia mais adequada se mostram como diferenciais para enfrentar os desafios impostos pelo cenário econômico no que tange a questão do desempenho da empresa e seu retorno para os acionistas. Desta forma, o objetivo central do estudo foi relacionar as estratégias de crescimento (fusões e aquisições ou crescimento orgânico) com o desempenho de empresas que passaram por um processo de fusões e aquisições no período de 2003 até 2013 baseado no indicador de desempenho definido como Q de Tobin. A pesquisa foi realizada por meio de testes estatísticos com dados empíricos das empresas de capital aberto, com ações negociadas na bolsa de valores de São Paulo e avaliou indicadores de retornos das ações das empresas que foram adquiridas e das firmas que as compraram, bem como características da transação tais como a forma de pagamento, a quantidade de compradores, o tamanho relativo entre as empresas e o desempenho destas empresas medido pelo índice Q de Tobin. Os resultados demonstraram que a base de dados disponível para o período analisado não é suficiente para chegarmos a uma conclusão definitiva sobre o impacto das variáveis citadas acima sobre o retorno das ações. / [en] This research is part of a context characterized by increasing use of discussion to generate shareholder value enhanced by the economic crisis that occurred in 2008 and 2009 that has increased several questions related to the doctrine of maximizing shareholder value, especially regarding the strategies to achieve this goal. In this context, the definition and selection of the most appropriate strategy is shown as differential to face the challenges posed by the economic scenario regarding the issue of the performance of the company and its shareholder return. Thus, the main objective of this research was to compare the growth strategies ( mergers and acquisitions or organic growth ) with the performance of companies that have gone through a process of mergers and acquisitions from 2003 to 2013 based on the performance indicator defined as Tobin s Q. The survey was conducted by means of statistical tests with empirical data of publicly traded companies with shares traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange and assessed indicators of stock returns of companies that went through the acquisition event as well as features transaction such as payment method, the number of buyers, the relative size between firms and the performance of these companies measured by Tobin s Q. The results showed that the available database for the reporting period is not sufficient to come to a definite conclusion about the impact of the aforementioned variables on stock returns.

O crescimento econômico brasileiro se manteve a baixos níveis nas duas últimas décadas quando comparado ao seu desempenho histórico e ao crescimento internacional. Um dos principais fatores responsáveis por esta situação é o pouco significativo nível de Q de Tobin da economia. Nesse sentido, este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se os fundamentos macroeconômicos explicam o comportamento do Q de Tobin, que estimula as decisões de Q de Tobin das empresas. Empiricamente, será utilizado um modelo de seleção automática: Autometrics. / Brazilian economic growth has been low for the last two decades, when compared to its historical performance and international growth. One of the main factors responsible for this situation is the small level of investment in the economy. This work aims to verify whether macroeconomic fundamentals can explain the behavior of Tobin\'s Q, which is supposed to be an indicator of investment decisions of the firms. Empirically, it will be employed an automatic selection model: Autometrics.

A teoria apresenta o índice q de Tobin como uma ferramenta de alto poder explicativo e elevada utilidade nas decisões de investimento, na medida em que o valor absoluto do q, per si, deve expressar um forte significado para o usuário. A técnica usual de cálculo do q de Tobin, descrita por Chung e Pruitt (1994), prevê utilizar a avaliação da empresa ao preço de mercado no denominador do quociente, valor que é apurado pela soma do valor das ações e das dívidas ao preço do dia. Uma forma alternativa de se calcular o q de Tobin seria possível em tese de ser feita pela substituição da avaliação a mercado por uma avaliação pelo método de fluxo de caixa descontado, pois ambas as técnicas não são excludentes na busca de estimar o valor das empresas. O presente trabalho de dissertação teve a finalidade de avaliar se os métodos de avaliação das empresas seriam equivalentes na determinação do q de Tobin através de teste de correlação entre resultados obtidos pelas duas técnicas. A confirmação da hipótese da igualdade de resultados se daria pela determinação de um R2 elevado. Caso a equivalência dos métodos fosse confirmada, o uso do indicador poderia ser estendido a empresas até mesmo de capital fechado ou para avaliar empresas em condição de baixa eficiência de mercado. Os testes de correlação foram feitos entre valores de q de Tobin apurado pelas duas técnicas. Uma série de dados foi gerada pelo método de Chung e Pruitt (1994) foi comparada com nove séries de dados apuradas por variantes da técnica de fluxo de caixa descontado, correspondente a combinação de três valores de fluxo inicial (NOPAT, FCO e FOCF) por três formas de se projetar os fluxos futuros (sem crescimento, crescentes com o PIB e crescentes pela tendência apurada com os dados contábeis). As séries também foram analisadas por triênios e por liquidez dos papeis das empresas. Os resultados apurados indicam que os métodos não são equivalentes, pois na maioria dos casos o R2 foi muito baixo, inferior a 0,15. Surgiram valores divergentes entre grupos de empresas com maior e menor liquidez, fato que merece ser analisado com mais atenção oportunamente, pois podem indicar um diferencial de uso das informações contábeis na avaliação das empresas. / The theory shows the Tobin\'s q as a tool of high utility and high explanatory power in investment decisions, since the absolute value of q, itself, must express a strong meaning for the user. The usual technique of calculation of Tobin\'s q, as described by Chung and Pruitt (1994) provides an assessment of the company using the market price in the denominator of the ratio, which is determined by the sum of the value of shares and debt to the price of day. An alternative way to calculate Tobin\'s q could in theory be made by replacement of the market evaluation by an assessment by the method of discounted cash flow, because both techniques are not exclusive in seeking to estimate the value of companies. The goal of this thesis had the purpose to evaluate whether the assessment methods of companies would be equivalent in the determination of Tobin\'s q using the test of correlation between results obtained by both techniques. The confirmation of the hypothesis of equality of results would be the determination of a high R2. If the equivalence of the methods were confirmed, the use of the indicator could be extended to companies even closed capital or to evaluate companies on condition of low efficiency of the market. Tests of correlation were made between values Tobin\'s q established by the two techniques. A series of data was generated by the method of Chung and Pruitt (1994) was compared with nine sets of data collected by variants of the technique of discounted cash flow, representing the combination of three values of initial flow (NOPAT, FOCF and FCO) by three ways to design the future flows (no growth, with GDP growing and growing trend established by the accounting data). The series were also analyzed by three years and liquidity of the roles of companies. The results indicate that the methods are not equivalent, because in most cases the R2 was very low, less than 0.15. There were divergent values between groups of firms with higher and lower liquidity, which should be examined more carefully, they may indicate a differential use of accounting information in evaluating companies.

A teoria apresenta o índice q de Tobin como uma ferramenta de alto poder explicativo e elevada utilidade nas decisões de investimento, na medida em que o valor absoluto do q, per si, deve expressar um forte significado para o usuário. A técnica usual de cálculo do q de Tobin, descrita por Chung e Pruitt (1994), prevê utilizar a avaliação da empresa ao preço de mercado no denominador do quociente, valor que é apurado pela soma do valor das ações e das dívidas ao preço do dia. Uma forma alternativa de se calcular o q de Tobin seria possível em tese de ser feita pela substituição da avaliação a mercado por uma avaliação pelo método de fluxo de caixa descontado, pois ambas as técnicas não são excludentes na busca de estimar o valor das empresas. O presente trabalho de dissertação teve a finalidade de avaliar se os métodos de avaliação das empresas seriam equivalentes na determinação do q de Tobin através de teste de correlação entre resultados obtidos pelas duas técnicas. A confirmação da hipótese da igualdade de resultados se daria pela determinação de um R2 elevado. Caso a equivalência dos métodos fosse confirmada, o uso do indicador poderia ser estendido a empresas até mesmo de capital fechado ou para avaliar empresas em condição de baixa eficiência de mercado. Os testes de correlação foram feitos entre valores de q de Tobin apurado pelas duas técnicas. Uma série de dados foi gerada pelo método de Chung e Pruitt (1994) foi comparada com nove séries de dados apuradas por variantes da técnica de fluxo de caixa descontado, correspondente a combinação de três valores de fluxo inicial (NOPAT, FCO e FOCF) por três formas de se projetar os fluxos futuros (sem crescimento, crescentes com o PIB e crescentes pela tendência apurada com os dados contábeis). As séries também foram analisadas por triênios e por liquidez dos papeis das empresas. Os resultados apurados indicam que os métodos não são equivalentes, pois na maioria dos casos o R2 foi muito baixo, inferior a 0,15. Surgiram valores divergentes entre grupos de empresas com maior e menor liquidez, fato que merece ser analisado com mais atenção oportunamente, pois podem indicar um diferencial de uso das informações contábeis na avaliação das empresas. / The theory shows the Tobin\'s q as a tool of high utility and high explanatory power in investment decisions, since the absolute value of q, itself, must express a strong meaning for the user. The usual technique of calculation of Tobin\'s q, as described by Chung and Pruitt (1994) provides an assessment of the company using the market price in the denominator of the ratio, which is determined by the sum of the value of shares and debt to the price of day. An alternative way to calculate Tobin\'s q could in theory be made by replacement of the market evaluation by an assessment by the method of discounted cash flow, because both techniques are not exclusive in seeking to estimate the value of companies. The goal of this thesis had the purpose to evaluate whether the assessment methods of companies would be equivalent in the determination of Tobin\'s q using the test of correlation between results obtained by both techniques. The confirmation of the hypothesis of equality of results would be the determination of a high R2. If the equivalence of the methods were confirmed, the use of the indicator could be extended to companies even closed capital or to evaluate companies on condition of low efficiency of the market. Tests of correlation were made between values Tobin\'s q established by the two techniques. A series of data was generated by the method of Chung and Pruitt (1994) was compared with nine sets of data collected by variants of the technique of discounted cash flow, representing the combination of three values of initial flow (NOPAT, FOCF and FCO) by three ways to design the future flows (no growth, with GDP growing and growing trend established by the accounting data). The series were also analyzed by three years and liquidity of the roles of companies. The results indicate that the methods are not equivalent, because in most cases the R2 was very low, less than 0.15. There were divergent values between groups of firms with higher and lower liquidity, which should be examined more carefully, they may indicate a differential use of accounting information in evaluating companies.

Housing investment plays a vital role in the real estate market. Although the housing investment has been extensively investigated, the application of Tobin¡¦s Q theory is relatively minor. Hence, the purpose of this study is to apply Tobin¡¦s Q theory to analyze housing investment, using quarterly data for Taipei City from 1973 Q2 to 2010 Q4. The Q ratio numerator is the pre-sale housing price and the denominator represents the value of the rent. The empirical model is estimated by using building permits and use permits as measures of housing investment. Moreover, because the housing market is imperfect, this study applies the threshold regression model to test whether different effects exist in the Q ratio. Finally, this study also compares housing investment in five cities. In conclusion, these findings imply that the Q ratio has a positive relationship with housing investment, as well as a threshold effect. Furthermore, the local housing investments are affected differently by local variables.

Utdelningar är ett relativt välkänt och utforskat område men ingen accepterad förklaring till dess påverkan på företagsvärde finns och tidigare studier tyder på att forskare till stor del har kommit fram till olika resultat. Men forskning kring utdelningsfrekvensernas betydelse och dess påverkan på företagsvärde är begränsad vilket leder oss in på ett område som är relativt outforskat. Syftet med detta arbete är att kvantitativt undersöka om utdelningsfrekvenserna påverkar ett företagsvärde. Undersökningen baseras på de två amerikanska listorna Nasdaq och New York StockExchange. För att göra studien så aktuell som möjligt grundar sig undersökningen på observationer mellan 2009 och 2013 och innehåller totalt 11 144 observationer. Bolag på den amerikanska marknaden använder sig av främst fyra utdelningsfrekenser: årliga,halvårsvis, kvartalsvis eller månadsvis. Slutligen finns det de bolag vars ledning beslutat att inte tillämpa utdelning som en av sin policy. Samtliga fem av dessa är inkluderade i studien. All data har samlats in via databasen Datastream och samtliga statistiskaberäkningar har gjorts i SPSS. Fyra hypoteser skapades med grund från agentteorin, Miller och Modiglianis (1961) artikel om utdelningarnas irrelevans, bird in hand och prospektteorin. Resultatet av undersökningen blev att den utdelningsfrekvens som resulterade i det högsta företagsvärde var kvartalsvis utdelning, vilken även är den frekvens som bolagen tillämpar mest. En summering av medelvärdena påvisar att månadsvis utdelning uppvisar det lägsta företagsvärde medan regressionsanalysen visar på att årsvis utdelning gav det sämsta resultatet på företagsvärdet. Genom hela resultatet kunde det med flera olika tester påvisas att kvartalsvis utdelning var den signifikant bästa utdelningspolicyn. / Dividend is a relatively well known and researched topic, however, no definite explanation seems to exist for the effect on a firm’s value. Previous studies suggest that researchers have reached a grasp variety of different results throughout time. As a result of an inconclusive and broad range of results this area of studies can be defined as unexplored which leads to the purpose of this essay of quantitatively analyze the impact and effect of dividend frequency on a company’s value. The survey used for analysis is based on two charts: Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange. For more updated results this survey included 11144 observations in which were registered between the years of 2009 and 2013. The U.S. market uses mainly four different types of periodicity when it comes to appliance of dividends, those distributions consist of the following: annual, half-yearly, quarterly or monthly. There are also companies registered whose management does not apply the dividend strategy as part of their policy. All five types of dividend appliance were considered for the purpose of this study. All the data collection was made through the Datastream database and all the statistical calculations were created through SPSS. Four hypotheses were created based on agency theory, Miller and Modigliani's (1961) article about the irrelevans of dividend, the bird in hand and prospect theory. As a conclusion, the survey determines that the firms with the highest value apply the quarterly dividend which has proven to be the most used method. A summary of the mean values shows that the monthly dividend distribution leads to the lowest enterprise value while the regression analysis clearly determines that the yearly dividend has the least successful result on valuations. Based on several different tests throughout the entire study, it was shown that the quarterly dividend was the significantly best dividend policy.

O crescimento econômico brasileiro se manteve a baixos níveis nas duas últimas décadas quando comparado ao seu desempenho histórico e ao crescimento internacional. Um dos principais fatores responsáveis por esta situação é o pouco significativo nível de Q de Tobin da economia. Nesse sentido, este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se os fundamentos macroeconômicos explicam o comportamento do Q de Tobin, que estimula as decisões de Q de Tobin das empresas. Empiricamente, será utilizado um modelo de seleção automática: Autometrics. / Brazilian economic growth has been low for the last two decades, when compared to its historical performance and international growth. One of the main factors responsible for this situation is the small level of investment in the economy. This work aims to verify whether macroeconomic fundamentals can explain the behavior of Tobin\'s Q, which is supposed to be an indicator of investment decisions of the firms. Empirically, it will be employed an automatic selection model: Autometrics.