Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 2014. / Vrije Univesiteit Amsterdam (VU), Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Environment and Resource Management Master Program (ERM), 2014. / Submitted by Fernanda Percia França (fernandafranca@bce.unb.br) on 2017-03-02T18:03:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_CarolinaGomesNascimento.pdf: 859637 bytes, checksum: 307f38346a6c622291a4dd527aebebcd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Raquel Viana(raquelviana@bce.unb.br) on 2017-04-05T21:48:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_CarolinaGomesNascimento.pdf: 859637 bytes, checksum: 307f38346a6c622291a4dd527aebebcd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-05T21:48:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_CarolinaGomesNascimento.pdf: 859637 bytes, checksum: 307f38346a6c622291a4dd527aebebcd (MD5) / A presente dissertação examina a evolução das políticas brasileiras de mudança climática de 1970 a 2013, com base em extensa revisão literária e de documentos oficiais. O Brasil possui relevância econômica e política internacionalmente, sobressaindo-se mais devido suas características ambientais. A dissertação inicia as observações, primeiramente, com a performance climática do país baseada nos princípios de responsabilidades comuns, porém diferenciadas, do poluidor-pagador e do direito ao desenvolvimento. Entretanto, devido às mudanças nas esferas econômica e política nas últimas três décadas, observa-se uma alteração de postura com ênfase na progressividade ao tratar de assuntos climáticos. O primeiro período de progressividade foi identificado de meados da década de 1980 até 1992, com a adoção da Convenção das Nações Unidas para Mudanças Climáticas e ao sediar a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Meio Ambiente e Desenvolvimento. O segundo período de considerável progressividade ocorreu entre 2007 e 2009, quando o Brasil adotou voluntariamente objetivos de redução nas emissões de GEE, além da aprovação do Plano e da Política Nacionais de Mudança Climática. Esse trajeto de progressividade, no entanto, é atenuado entre 1993 e 2006, e não é percebido de maneira consistente após 2010. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é documentar e analisar tais mudanças nas políticas doméstica e externa de mitigação às mudanças climáticas, e tentar explicá-las com base no conceito de janela de oportunidade, combinando influências nacionais e internacionais. No âmbito desta análise conclui-se que a existência de janelas de oportunidades podem explicar as mudanças nos períodos de maior progressividade. / This thesis examines the evolution of Brazilian climate change policies from 1970's to 2013 based on an extensive review of literature and policy documents. Brazil has international economic and political relevance and stands out especially due to its unique climate and environmental characteristics. The thesis starts from the observation that, at first, the country's climate performance was based on common but differentiated responsibilities, polluter pays and right to develop principles. However, due to changes in both economic and political spheres over the last three decades, a shift in its stance can be observed, towards a more progressive political approach on climate change. The first progressive period was identified from mid-1980's to 1992 with the adoption of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change and the hosting of United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The second period of considerable progressiveness occurred from 2007 to 2009, when Brazil voluntarily adopted goals of GHG emissions reduction and approved the National Plan and the National Policy of Climate Change domestically. This progressive pathway, nonetheless, decreased between 1993-2006 and has not been consistently perceived after 2010. The main objective of this thesis is to document and analyse these changes in the Brazilian domestic and foreign climate change mitigation policies and try to explain them on the basis of the windows of opportunities concept, combining domestic and international influences. On the basis of its analysis it concludes that the existence windows of opportunity can explain changes in the most progressive periods. / De huidige scriptie beschrijft de evolutie van Braziliaans beleid rondom klimaatverandering tussen de jaren 1970 en 2013 op basis van uitputtend onderzoek van academische en politieke werken. Brazilië heeft op economisch en politiek gebied internationale relevantie en onderscheidt zich omwille van haar unieke klimaat- en omgevingskarakteristieken. De scriptie stemt vanuit de observatie dat de oorspronkelijke prestaties van het land gebaseerd waren op de zogenaamde gemeenschappelijke doch gedifferentieerde principes, vervuiler-betaalt- en recht op ontwikkelingsprincipes. Desalniettemin kan, binnen de afgelopen drie decennia, een transitie naar een progressievere politieke aanpak worden waargenomen wat betreft klimaatbeleid wegens veranderingen op economische en politieke gebied. De eerste progressieve periode was in 1992 met de overname van het Raamverdrag van de Verenigde Naties inzake klimaatverandering, de piek van desbetreffende transitie wordt herkend tussen 2007 en 2010 toen Brazilië vrijwillig doeleinden omtrent het reduceren van broeikasgasemissies op zich nam alsmede landelijk de zogenaamde Nationale Plan en Nationaal Beleid der Klimaatverandering akkoord gaf. Dit progressieve pad verminderde tussen 1993 en 2006 en heeft zich sindsdien op geen van beide gebieden niet concreet hersteld na 2010. Hoofddoel van huidige scriptie is om veranderingen in Braziliaanse landelijke en buitenlandse omtrent klimaatbeleid te documenteren en analyseren en een poging te doen deze te verklaren op basis van het concept der “windows of opportunity” aldoende nationale en internationale invloeden combinerend. Op basis van de analyse in deze scriptie kan worden geconcludeerd dat "windows of opportunity" een verklaring kan geven voor veranderingen in de meest progressieve periodes. / Esta tesis analiza la evolución de las políticas de cambio climático de Brasil desde 1970 hasta 2013 basada en una extensa revisión de literatura y documentos oficiales. Brasil tiene una relevancia económica y política a nivel internacional y se destaca por sus particulares características climáticas y ambientales. La tesis parte de la observación de que, en un primer momento, las políticas climáticas de Brasil se basaban en el principio de responsabilidades comunes pero diferenciadas, principio del contaminador-pagador y el principio de derecho al desarrollo. Sin embargo, cambios en las esferas políticas durante las tres últimas décadas han incentivado un enfoque más progresista en materia de cambio climático. El primer período de progreso tuvo lugar a mediados de la década de 1980 hasta 1992, con la adopción de la Convención de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático y la celebración de la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo. El segundo período de progreso considerable se produjo entre 2007 y 2009, cuando Brasil adoptó metas voluntarias de reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y aprobó el Plan Nacional y la Política Nacional de Cambio Climático a nivel nacional. Sin embargo, este camino progresista se atenuó entre 1993 y 2006 y además, no ha sido percibido de manera consistente desde 2010. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es documentar y analizar los cambios en la política nacional y externa para la mitigación del cambio climático y explicar estos cambios tomando como base el concepto de ventanas de oportunidad, combinando influencias domésticas e internacionales. Este análisis concluye que la existencia de ventanas de oportunidad puede explicar los cambios en los períodos más progresistas. / Ce mémoire examine l'évolution de la politique climatique brésilienne des années 1970 à 2013 sur la base d'un examen de la littérature et documents de politiques. Le Brésil est d'importance économique et politique à l'échelle internationale et se démarque par son climat et ses caractéristiques environnementales uniques. Le mémoire débute avec l'observation que la performance climatique du pays est basé sur les responsabilités communes mais différenciés, le principe du pollueur payeur et le droit au développement. Cependant, pour cause de changements dans les sphères économiques et politiques durant les trois dernières décennies, une réorientation vers une approche plus progressiste est perceptible. La première période progressiste s'étend de la moitié des années 1980 à 1992 et l'adoption de la Conférence Cadre des Nations Unies pour le Changement Climatique et la tenue de la Conférence des Nations Unies pour l'Environnement et le Développement. La seconde période de progressivité s'étale de 2007 à 2009 quand le Brésil a volontairement adopté l'objectif de réduire ses émissions des gaz à effet de serre et a approuvé le Plan National et la Politique Nationale sur le Changement Climatique. Ce courant progressiste a néanmoins diminué entre 1993-2006 et n'a pas été perçue de manière continue après 2010. L'objectif principal de ce mémoire est de documenter, d'analyser ces changements dans la politique nationale et la politique extérieure de réduction du changement climatique brésilienne ainsi que d'essayer de les expliquer sur la base du concept de fenêtres d'opportunités qui combine influences domestiques et internationales. Sur la base de cette analyse, il conclue que l'existence de ces fenêtres d'opportunités peut expliquer les changement des périodes les plus progressives. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ZUSAMMENFASSUNG / Diese wissenschaftliche Arbeit analysiert den Wandel der brasilianschen Klimawandel-Politik zwischen 1970 und 2013. Die Analyse beruht zum einen auf einer intensiven Literaturrecherche und zum anderen auf politischen Positionspapieren. Brasilien hat international eine große politische und ökonomische Bedeutung und sticht hervor durch seine einzigartigen klimatischen und umweltbezogenen Charakteristika. Die Analyse setzt an der Beobachtung an, dass Brasiliens Klimapolitik auf den Prinzipien 1. allgemeine aber differenzierte Verantwortung , 2. der Umweltsünder zahlt und 3. das Recht weitere Prinzipien zu entwerfen, beruht. Innerhalb der vergangenen Jahre, verursacht durch politischen und ökonomischen Wandel, konnte jedoch eine Abkehr von diesen Prinzipien hin zu einer deutlich progressiveren politischen Herangehensweise in Bezug auf Klimawandel beobachtet werden. Die erste progressive Phase zeichnete sich Mitte der 1980er Jahre bis 1992 ab, gekennzeichnet durch die Einführung der „United Nations Convention on Climate Change“ und durch ausrichten der „United Nations Conference on Environment and Development“. Die zweite als progressiv zu wertende Phase liegt zwischen 2007 und 2009. Brasilien akzeptierte auf freiwilliger Basis die Ziele der GHG Emissionsreduktion und stimmte zu, den „National Plan“ und die „National Policy of Climate Change“ umzusetzen. Zwischen 1992 und 2007 jedoch zeigte sich eine vermindert progressive Umweltpolitik. Dieser Trend folgte nach der zweiten progressiven Phase (2007-2009) bis zum heutigen Tage. Das Hauptmotiv dieser wissenschaftlichen Arbeit ist es, diese Veränderungen der brasilianischen Klimawandel-Politik auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene, zum einen, zu analysieren, und zum anderen, beruhend auf dem „windows of opportunities“ Konzept, zu erklären. Dabei werden nationale und internationale Einflüsse kombiniert. Basierend auf dieser Analyse ist zu schlussfolgern, dass das Konzept „windows of opportunities“ in der Tat die Veränderungen in den progressivsten Phasen erklären kann.

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Departamento de Botânica, Programa de Pós-graduação em Botânica, 2014. / Submitted by Patrícia Nunes da Silva (patricia@bce.unb.br) on 2015-12-18T13:50:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_JulianaSilvestreSilva_Parcial.pdf: 37400751 bytes, checksum: 3dd00dd131a19bc77177c6871280dc30 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Guimaraes Jacqueline(jacqueline.guimaraes@bce.unb.br) on 2016-01-05T13:38:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_JulianaSilvestreSilva_Parcial.pdf: 37400751 bytes, checksum: 3dd00dd131a19bc77177c6871280dc30 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-05T13:38:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_JulianaSilvestreSilva_Parcial.pdf: 37400751 bytes, checksum: 3dd00dd131a19bc77177c6871280dc30 (MD5) / Em ambientes tropicais as espécies vegetais apresentam padrões fenológicos influenciados por fatores bióticos e abióticos que podem ser estudados a partir de exsicatas depositadas em herbário. A informatização dessas coleções vem tornando os materiais herborizados cada vez mais utilizados, fundamentando estudos com os mais variados objetivos, principalmente em formações vegetais sob alta pressão antrópica, como o Cerrado. Os herbários são grandes bancos de dados que guardam informações geográficas, taxonômicas, ecológicas e fenológicas de espécies variadas e esses registros têm sido uma ferramenta útil para examinar tendências em longo prazo dos eventos fenológicos, principalmente quando relacionadas às mudanças temporais. Nos últimos anos, estudos fenológicos vêm sendo adotados com frequência como forma de prever o comportamento de sistemas biológicos frente às mudanças no clima, visto que entender o que controla a fenologia da vegetação é essencial na tentativa de compreender as possíveis mudanças futuras em relação à mudança de tempo e clima. Sabe-se que mudanças não previstas nos padrões climáticos estão ocorrendo e o aumento da temperatura tem interferido na distribuição geográfica, fisiologia, fenologia e adaptação in situ das espécies, assim como alterado o ciclo hidrológico, causando mudanças nos padrões de precipitação. Um dos objetivos deste trabalho foi desenvolver um índice matemático capaz de prever o comportamento fenológico de espécies vegetais a partir de registros contidos em grandes bancos de dados e como resultado foi incorporado ao programa BRAHMS um algoritmo interno denominado Phenological Predictability Index (PPI), que calcula a probabilidade de ocorrência dos eventos fenológicos em campo, com base em exsicatas, literatura e imagens datadas. Paralelamente, foi realizado o monitoramento quinzenal em campo, no Distrito Federal, de 22 espécies no período entre 2011 e 2013, das quais 11 nunca foram estudadas no Distrito Federal. Foram incluídas nas análises outras sete espécies, previamente estudadas na mesma região, entre os anos de 2000 e 2003. Os estudos de campo permitiram o cálculo da constância do evento fenológico, necessário para se deduzir a contingência, e o poder preditivo do PPI como ferramenta de planejamento de expedições de campo foi testado. Observaram-se quatro padrões fenológicos vegetativos e quatro padrões de antese e produção de botões e frutos. Para os eventos de floração o PPI previu os meses de maior atividade de cerca de 90% das espécies analisadas e para frutificação a previsão do mês-pico ocorreu para pouco menos de 50% delas. O período em que a fenofase tem maior chance de ocorrer foi previsto corretamente para 100% das espécies nos três eventos analisados (botão, flor e fruto). Considerando a existência da variação geográfica na fenologia sugere-se que os registros herborizados usados para o cálculo do PPI estejam dentro da mesma região climática dos locais onde ocorrerá o estudo ou a coleta. O insucesso no uso do índice poderá ocorrer no caso de espécies com fenologia supra-anual ou com baixo valor de PPI, o que indica alta contingência do evento, isto é, plasticidade fenotípica da espécie frente às mudanças locais ou climáticas entre anos. Sabendo da existência dessas mudanças interanuais no clima, diferentes técnicas têm sido utilizadas para estudar as variabilidades climáticas e seus efeitos, além de definir e prever padrões e anomalias. Assim, este trabalho propôs também o uso da morfometria geométrica, mais especificamente a técnica Thin-Plate Spline (TPS), no estudo de variáveis climáticas – em escala local e num período de 50 anos – para que dados climáticos de diversas décadas pudessem ser comparados entre si e os anos climaticamente semelhantes fossem identificados. O uso da morfometria geométrica em estudos voltados à variabilidade climática é inédito e a técnica se mostrou bastante útil ao apresentar a variabilidade anual existente entre os decêndios do ano, mesmo essa variação sendo muito pequena. Foi possível identificar que as variáveis temperatura máxima e precipitação apresentaram maior variação interanual no período chuvoso, enquanto para a variável temperatura mínima a maior variação ocorreu no período seco. Os agrupamentos obtidos apresentaram-se fracos para as três variáveis, no entanto, a análise reconheceu anos com presença de El Niño e La Niña no estudo da precipitação, variável que apresentou a maior variabilidade entre anos. A teoria da probabilidade foi utilizada para explorar o grau de previsibilidade e de oportunismo da floração no Distrito Federal e investigar possíveis relações com características climáticas como temperatura, precipitação e fotoperíodo. Como conclusão, obteve-se o resultado comportamental mais amplo e geral de diferentes e importantes plantas do Cerrado e provou-se que o uso de espécimes coletados em um grande período de tempo – como registros de herbários – é útil no estudo da fenologia vegetal, quando se tem como objetivo definir comportamentos e padrões frente às mudanças ambientais. A identificação da variabilidade climática em pequeno espaço de tempo (p.ex. decêndios do ano), como feito por meio da técnica de Thin-Plate Spline, é de grande importância em estudos de vegetação, assim como a distinção de anos com ocorrência dos fenômenos La Niña e El Niño. Verificou-se que para a obtenção de melhores resultados, a análise da morfometria deve ser restrita a períodos mais curtos de tempo, como a estação chuvosa, quando ocorrem maiores variações climáticas no Distrito Federal, ou nos meses que antecedem a ocorrência dos eventos fenológicos. Poucas espécies parecem independer de algum estímulo ambiental para florescer, a maioria delas parece responder a uma combinação complexa de estímulos como precipitação, temperatura e fotoperíodo, combinados a ritmos endógenos e, para algumas, à passagem do fogo. A utilização do PPI como forma de quantificar a chance que o material de interesse tem de ser encontrado em campo tende a garantir o sucesso das expedições de campo, resultando em aceleração e economia para as pesquisas. / In tropical vegetation, flowering plants have phenological patterns influenced by biotic and environmental factors and that can be studied using herbarium specimens. Herbarium databasing has accelerated the use of such data, providing baseline information for studies with many kinds of different objectives, particularly for regions under pressure from humans, such as the Cerrado. Herbaria are large databases that preserve geographic, taxonomic, ecologic and phenologic information and such records are very useful to study long-term tendencies in phenology. In the last few years, phenological studies have become very popular as a key to predicting how biological systems will respond to climate changes, since understanding what controls plant phenology is essential to try and understand possible future changes in climate and weather. It is becoming clear that unprecedented changes in climatic patterns are underway and that the increase in temperature is interfering in the distribution, physiology, phenology and in situ adaptation of many species, as well as modifying the hydrological cycle, therefore changing rainfall patterns. One of the objectives of this study was to develop a mathematical index capable of predicting the phenological behaviour of plant species based on large databases. As a result, a formula was devised and an algorithm was incorporated into BRAHMS that calculates an index we have called the Phenological Predictability Index (PPI), that calculates the probability of registering a phenological event in the field based on herbarium, literature and dated images. Our study focused on a representative sample of Angiosperm species that are common the Distrito Federal, Brazil. Along with phenological scoring of herbarium data, 22 species were monitored twice a month in the field between 2011 and 2013. Seven species that were studied between 2000 e 2003 also in the Distrito Federal were included in the analyses. Our field study (as well as other published studies) permitted us to calculate average individual constancy of the phenological event so that contingency could be deduced. Results obtained in the field were compared with those predicted by the PPI index. Peak flowering month was congruent with maximum monthly probability for c. 90% of species and peak fruiting month was congruent with maximum monthly probability in 50% of species. Scoring events in the field was 100% successful for visits in peak probability months (buds, flowers and fruit). Considering the existence of geographic variability in phenology, we suggest that the herbarium records used to calculate PPI are within the same climatic region where the study or collecting expedition is planned to occur. Lack of success in PPI prediction of an event may be due to the fact that it is supra-anual (mast species) or event predictability is very low, meaning it is highly plastic, presumably responding to year-to-year climatic variation or to local conditions. A second aim of this study is to improve knowledge of patterns and identify possible anomalies in year-to-year climatic variability. This study used geometric morphometrics, specifically the Thin-Plate Spline (TPS) technique, in the study of decendial climatic variables – minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation – on a local scale and over a time scale of 50 years, thus allowing climatic data for several decades to be compared and putatively climatically similar years to be identified. The use of geometric morphometrics in climate studies is unprecedented and the technique was useful to quantify the decendial climatic variability even when it was small. Precipitation showed the highest variability by far with the highest value found in the second decendium of November. Maximum temperatures showed maximum variability during the wet season and minimum temperatures during the dry season. UPGMA was used to group years using the three variables, but bootstrap values were below 50, suggesting 50 years might be insufficient for pattern formation. However, UPGMA based on precipitation was successful in grouping El Niño and La Niña years. Probability theory was used to explore the degree of flowering predictability and opportunism in the Distrito Federal and investigate possible relationships with climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and photoperiod. We conclude that the behaviour of this sample of a diversified and important group of common Cerrado plants studied – as herbarium records – is useful in the study of plant phenology, if the objective is to elucidate behaviour and patterns in response to environmental variables. The identification of climatic variability using short time (such as 10 days), as done using the Thin-Plate Spline technique, is of great importance in vegetation studies, as is the distinction of years with La Niña and El Niño phenomena. For best results, morphometric analyses should be restricted to seasons, such as the rainy season, when major climatic variability occurs in the Distrito Federal, or in the months that preceed the desired phenological events. Few species appear to be independent of environmental stimulus to flower, and many of them may respond to a complex pattern of stimuli such as precipitation, temperature and photoperiod, combined with endogenous rhythms or after burning. Using PPI as a means of quantifying the probability that botanical material has of being found the desired phenological state in the field can enhance success in field expeditions, resulting in faster and more economical research. / In tropical vegetation, flowering plants have phenological patterns influenced by biotic and environmental factors and that can be studied using herbarium specimens. Herbarium databasing has accelerated the use of such data, providing baseline information for studies with many kinds of different objectives, particularly for regions under pressure from humans, such as the Cerrado. Herbaria are large databases that preserve geographic, taxonomic, ecologic and phenologic information and such records are very useful to study long-term tendencies in phenology. In the last few years, phenological studies have become very popular as a key to predicting how biological systems will respond to climate changes, since understanding what controls plant phenology is essential to try and understand possible future changes in climate and weather. It is becoming clear that unprecedented changes in climatic patterns are underway and that the increase in temperature is interfering in the distribution, physiology, phenology and in situ adaptation of many species, as well as modifying the hydrological cycle, therefore changing rainfall patterns. One of the objectives of this study was to develop a mathematical index capable of predicting the phenological behaviour of plant species based on large databases. As a result, a formula was devised and an algorithm was incorporated into BRAHMS that calculates an index we have called the Phenological Predictability Index (PPI), that calculates the probability of registering a phenological event in the field based on herbarium, literature and dated images. Our study focused on a representative sample of Angiosperm species that are common the Distrito Federal, Brazil. Along with phenological scoring of herbarium data, 22 species were monitored twice a month in the field between 2011 and 2013. Seven species that were studied between 2000 e 2003 also in the Distrito Federal were included in the analyses. Our field study (as well as other published studies) permitted us to calculate average individual constancy of the phenological event so that contingency could be deduced. Results obtained in the field were compared with those predicted by the PPI index. Peak flowering month was congruent with maximum monthly probability for c. 90% of species and peak fruiting month was congruent with maximum monthly probability in 50% of species. Scoring events in the field was 100% successful for visits in peak probability months (buds, flowers and fruit). Considering the existence of geographic variability in phenology, we suggest that the herbarium records used to calculate PPI are within the same climatic region where the study or collecting expedition is planned to occur. Lack of success in PPI prediction of an event may be due to the fact that it is supra-anual (mast species) or event predictability is very low, meaning it is highly plastic, presumably responding to year-to-year climatic variation or to local conditions. A second aim of this study is to improve knowledge of patterns and identify possible anomalies in year-to-year climatic variability. This study used geometric morphometrics, specifically the Thin-Plate Spline (TPS) technique, in the study of decendial climatic variables – minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation – on a local scale and over a time scale of 50 years, thus allowing climatic data for several decades to be compared and putatively climatically similar years to be identified. The use of geometric morphometrics in climate studies is unprecedented and the technique was useful to quantify the decendial climatic variability even when it was small. Precipitation showed the highest variability by far with the highest value found in the second decendium of November. Maximum temperatures showed maximum variability during the wet season and minimum temperatures during the dry season. UPGMA was used to group years using the three variables, but bootstrap values were below 50, suggesting 50 years might be insufficient for pattern formation. However, UPGMA based on precipitation was successful in grouping El Niño and La Niña years. Probability theory was used to explore the degree of flowering predictability and opportunism in the Distrito Federal and investigate possible relationships with climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and photoperiod. We conclude that the behaviour of this sample of a diversified and important group of common Cerrado plants studied – as herbarium records – is useful in the study of plant phenology, if the objective is to elucidate behaviour and patterns in response to environmental variables. The identification of climatic variability using short time (such as 10 days), as done using the Thin-Plate Spline technique, is of great importance in vegetation studies, as is the distinction of years with La Niña and El Niño phenomena. For best results, morphometric analyses should be restricted to seasons, such as the rainy season, when major climatic variability occurs in the Distrito Federal, or in the months that preceed the desired phenological events. Few species appear to be independent of environmental stimulus to flower, and many of them may respond to a complex pattern of stimuli such as precipitation, temperature and photoperiod, combined with endogenous rhythms or after burning. Using PPI as a means of quantifying the probability that botanical material has of being found the desired phenological state in the field can enhance success in field expeditions, resulting in faster and more economical research.