<p>In quantitative palaeoecology modern species-environmental relationships can be statistically modelled, and recent development has made the calibration models more statistically robust. These models are used to transform fossil assemblages to quantitative estimates of past environmental conditions. The aim of this thesis is to infer Holocene temperatures from fossil pollen data sampled from lakes in central and southern Sweden. This reconstruction is done by using a north-European pollen-climate calibration model, which was extended with 37 modern pollen samples from the southern deciduous vegetation zone in Sweden within this project. A statistical method is used for deriving the pollen-climate calibration model, weighted averaging partial least square (WA-PLS) method. The long term trends in pollen inferred temperatures from this study reflect low, but rapidly rising temperatures in the early-Holocene, a trend that was temporarily interrupted by a cool period about 8500 cal yr BP, but continued after 8000 cal yr BP. A Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) with temperatures roughly 2°C higher than at present was recorded about 7000 cal yr BP and by 4000 cal yr BP pollen inferred temperatures starts to decline. In order to create a more comprehensive picture of past climate patterns in the investigated area inferred temperatures from this study are compared with independent palaeorecords, a stable oxygen isotope record for moisture variability (paper I) and chironomids for summer temperature (paper II). Taken all together, these records reflect a coherent Holocene climate pattern which also is supported by several studies from Scandinavia and the north Atlantic region. Pollen inferred temperatures and the moisture record are indicating markedly dry, continental climate conditions in southern Sweden during the HTM possibly as a result of reorganisations in regional atmosphere circulations. The local observations in this study of regional climate events, such as the cold period at about 8200 cal yr BP and the dry period at about 7000 to 4000 cal yr BP are of particular interest because they suggest that vegetation in the study region has responded sensitively both to long-term climatic trends and more transient climate events.</p>

In quantitative palaeoecology modern species-environmental relationships can be statistically modelled, and recent development has made the calibration models more statistically robust. These models are used to transform fossil assemblages to quantitative estimates of past environmental conditions. The aim of this thesis is to infer Holocene temperatures from fossil pollen data sampled from lakes in central and southern Sweden. This reconstruction is done by using a north-European pollen-climate calibration model, which was extended with 37 modern pollen samples from the southern deciduous vegetation zone in Sweden within this project. A statistical method is used for deriving the pollen-climate calibration model, weighted averaging partial least square (WA-PLS) method. The long term trends in pollen inferred temperatures from this study reflect low, but rapidly rising temperatures in the early-Holocene, a trend that was temporarily interrupted by a cool period about 8500 cal yr BP, but continued after 8000 cal yr BP. A Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) with temperatures roughly 2°C higher than at present was recorded about 7000 cal yr BP and by 4000 cal yr BP pollen inferred temperatures starts to decline. In order to create a more comprehensive picture of past climate patterns in the investigated area inferred temperatures from this study are compared with independent palaeorecords, a stable oxygen isotope record for moisture variability (paper I) and chironomids for summer temperature (paper II). Taken all together, these records reflect a coherent Holocene climate pattern which also is supported by several studies from Scandinavia and the north Atlantic region. Pollen inferred temperatures and the moisture record are indicating markedly dry, continental climate conditions in southern Sweden during the HTM possibly as a result of reorganisations in regional atmosphere circulations. The local observations in this study of regional climate events, such as the cold period at about 8200 cal yr BP and the dry period at about 7000 to 4000 cal yr BP are of particular interest because they suggest that vegetation in the study region has responded sensitively both to long-term climatic trends and more transient climate events.

<p>This thesis documents the development and application of a unique database orientated software package, BugsCEP, for environmental and climatic reconstruction from fossil beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages. The software tools are described, and the incorporated statistical methods discussed and evaluated with respect to both published modern and fossil data, as well as the author’s own investigations.</p><p>BugsCEP consists of a reference database of ecology and distribution data for over 5 800 taxa, and includes temperature tolerance data for 436 species. It also contains abundance and summary data for almost 700 sites - the majority of the known Quaternary fossil coleopteran record of Europe. Sample based dating evidence is stored for a large number of these sites, and the data are supported by a bibliography of over 3 300 sources. Through the use of built in statistical methods, employing a specially developed habitat classification system (Bugs EcoCodes), semi-quantitative environmental reconstructions can be undertaken, and output graphically, to aid in the interpretation of sites. A number of built in searching and reporting functions also increase the efficiency with which analyses can be undertaken, including the facility to list the fossil record of species found by searching the ecology and distribution data. The existing Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) climate reconstruction method is implemented and improved upon in BugsCEP, as BugsMCR, which includes predictive modelling and the output of graphs and climate space maps.</p><p>The evaluation of the software demonstrates good performance when compared to existing interpretations. The standardization method employed in habitat reconstructions, designed to enable the inter-comparison of samples and sites without the interference of differing numbers of species and individuals, also appears to be robust and effective. Quantitative climate reconstructions can be easily undertaken from within the software, as well as an amount of predictive modelling. The use of jackknifing variants as an aid to the interpretation of climate reconstructions is discussed, and suggested as a potential indicator of reliability. The combination of the BugStats statistical system with an enhanced MCR facility could be extremely useful in increasing our understanding of not only past environmental and climate change, but also the biogeography and ecology of insect populations in general.</p><p>BugsCEP is the only available software package integrating modern and fossil coleopteran data, and the included reconstruction and analysis tools provide a powerful resource for research and teaching in palaeo-environmental science. The use of modern reference data also makes the package potentially useful in the study of present day insect faunas, and the effects of climate and environmental change on their distributions. The reconstruction methods could thus be inverted, and used as predictive tools in the study of biodiversity and the implications of sustainable development policies on present day habitats.</p><p>BugsCEP can be downloaded from http://www.bugscep.com</p>

This thesis documents the development and application of a unique database orientated software package, BugsCEP, for environmental and climatic reconstruction from fossil beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages. The software tools are described, and the incorporated statistical methods discussed and evaluated with respect to both published modern and fossil data, as well as the author’s own investigations. BugsCEP consists of a reference database of ecology and distribution data for over 5 800 taxa, and includes temperature tolerance data for 436 species. It also contains abundance and summary data for almost 700 sites - the majority of the known Quaternary fossil coleopteran record of Europe. Sample based dating evidence is stored for a large number of these sites, and the data are supported by a bibliography of over 3 300 sources. Through the use of built in statistical methods, employing a specially developed habitat classification system (Bugs EcoCodes), semi-quantitative environmental reconstructions can be undertaken, and output graphically, to aid in the interpretation of sites. A number of built in searching and reporting functions also increase the efficiency with which analyses can be undertaken, including the facility to list the fossil record of species found by searching the ecology and distribution data. The existing Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) climate reconstruction method is implemented and improved upon in BugsCEP, as BugsMCR, which includes predictive modelling and the output of graphs and climate space maps. The evaluation of the software demonstrates good performance when compared to existing interpretations. The standardization method employed in habitat reconstructions, designed to enable the inter-comparison of samples and sites without the interference of differing numbers of species and individuals, also appears to be robust and effective. Quantitative climate reconstructions can be easily undertaken from within the software, as well as an amount of predictive modelling. The use of jackknifing variants as an aid to the interpretation of climate reconstructions is discussed, and suggested as a potential indicator of reliability. The combination of the BugStats statistical system with an enhanced MCR facility could be extremely useful in increasing our understanding of not only past environmental and climate change, but also the biogeography and ecology of insect populations in general. BugsCEP is the only available software package integrating modern and fossil coleopteran data, and the included reconstruction and analysis tools provide a powerful resource for research and teaching in palaeo-environmental science. The use of modern reference data also makes the package potentially useful in the study of present day insect faunas, and the effects of climate and environmental change on their distributions. The reconstruction methods could thus be inverted, and used as predictive tools in the study of biodiversity and the implications of sustainable development policies on present day habitats. BugsCEP can be downloaded from http://www.bugscep.com