<p>This thesis documents the development and application of a unique database orientated software package, BugsCEP, for environmental and climatic reconstruction from fossil beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages. The software tools are described, and the incorporated statistical methods discussed and evaluated with respect to both published modern and fossil data, as well as the author’s own investigations.</p><p>BugsCEP consists of a reference database of ecology and distribution data for over 5 800 taxa, and includes temperature tolerance data for 436 species. It also contains abundance and summary data for almost 700 sites - the majority of the known Quaternary fossil coleopteran record of Europe. Sample based dating evidence is stored for a large number of these sites, and the data are supported by a bibliography of over 3 300 sources. Through the use of built in statistical methods, employing a specially developed habitat classification system (Bugs EcoCodes), semi-quantitative environmental reconstructions can be undertaken, and output graphically, to aid in the interpretation of sites. A number of built in searching and reporting functions also increase the efficiency with which analyses can be undertaken, including the facility to list the fossil record of species found by searching the ecology and distribution data. The existing Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) climate reconstruction method is implemented and improved upon in BugsCEP, as BugsMCR, which includes predictive modelling and the output of graphs and climate space maps.</p><p>The evaluation of the software demonstrates good performance when compared to existing interpretations. The standardization method employed in habitat reconstructions, designed to enable the inter-comparison of samples and sites without the interference of differing numbers of species and individuals, also appears to be robust and effective. Quantitative climate reconstructions can be easily undertaken from within the software, as well as an amount of predictive modelling. The use of jackknifing variants as an aid to the interpretation of climate reconstructions is discussed, and suggested as a potential indicator of reliability. The combination of the BugStats statistical system with an enhanced MCR facility could be extremely useful in increasing our understanding of not only past environmental and climate change, but also the biogeography and ecology of insect populations in general.</p><p>BugsCEP is the only available software package integrating modern and fossil coleopteran data, and the included reconstruction and analysis tools provide a powerful resource for research and teaching in palaeo-environmental science. The use of modern reference data also makes the package potentially useful in the study of present day insect faunas, and the effects of climate and environmental change on their distributions. The reconstruction methods could thus be inverted, and used as predictive tools in the study of biodiversity and the implications of sustainable development policies on present day habitats.</p><p>BugsCEP can be downloaded from http://www.bugscep.com</p>

<p>The objective of the thesis was to explore the potential of diatoms (<i>Bacillariophyceae</i>) as indicators of Holocene climate and environmental change in northern Sweden (Abisko region, 68°21'N, 18°49'E). A modern surface-sediment calibration set including 100 lakes was developed and lake-water pH, sedimentary organic content (assessed by loss-on-ignition) and temperature were identified as most powerful environmental variables explaining the variance within the diatom assemblages. Transfer functions based on unimodal species response models (WA-PLS) were developed for lake-water pH and mean July air temperature (July T), yielding coefficients of determination of 0.77 and 0.70, and prediction errors based on leave-one-out cross-validation of 0.19 pH units and 0.96 °C for lake-water pH and July T, respectively. The transfer functions were validated with monitoring data covering two open-water seasons (lake-water pH) and meteorological records covering the 20th century (July T). The good agreement between diatom-based inferences and measured monitoring data confirmed the prediction ability of the developed transfer functions. </p><p>Analysing a Holocene sediment core from a lake nearby Abisko (Vuoskkujávri), diatoms infer a linearly decreasing July T trend (1.5 °C) since 6,000 cal. BP, which compares well with inferences based on chironomids and pollen from the same sediment core. The lake-water pH inference shows a pattern of moderate natural acidification (c. 0.5 pH units) since the early Holocene, reaching present-day pH values at c. 5,000 cal. BP. By fitting fossil diatom samples to the modern calibration set by means of residual distance assessment within canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), the early Holocene (between 10,600 and 6,000 cal. BP) was identified as a problematic time-period for diatom-based inferences and, consequently, reconstructions during this period are tentative. Pollen-based inferences also show 'poor' fit between 10,600 and 7,500 cal. BP and chironomids probably provide the most reliable July T reconstruction at Vuoskkujávri, with 'poor' fit only during the initial part of the Holocene (between 10,600 and 10,250 cal. BP). </p><p>Possible factors confounding diatom-based July T inferences were investigated. Using detrended CCA (DCCA), Holocene sediment sequences from five lakes indicate that during the early Holocene, mainly physical factors such as high minerogenic erosion rates, high temperature and low light availability may have regulated diatom assemblages, favouring <i>Fragilaria</i> species. In all five lakes, diatom assemblages developed in a directional manner, but timing and scale of development differed substantially between lakes. The differences are attributed primarily to the geological properties of the lake catchments (with strong effects on lake-water pH), but other factors such as climatic change, vegetation, hydrologic setting and in-lake processes appear to regulate diatom communities in each lake differently. The influence of long-term natural acidification on diatom assemblages progressively declined during the Holocene with corresponding increase of the influence of climatic factors.</p>

The objective of the thesis was to explore the potential of diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) as indicators of Holocene climate and environmental change in northern Sweden (Abisko region, 68°21'N, 18°49'E). A modern surface-sediment calibration set including 100 lakes was developed and lake-water pH, sedimentary organic content (assessed by loss-on-ignition) and temperature were identified as most powerful environmental variables explaining the variance within the diatom assemblages. Transfer functions based on unimodal species response models (WA-PLS) were developed for lake-water pH and mean July air temperature (July T), yielding coefficients of determination of 0.77 and 0.70, and prediction errors based on leave-one-out cross-validation of 0.19 pH units and 0.96 °C for lake-water pH and July T, respectively. The transfer functions were validated with monitoring data covering two open-water seasons (lake-water pH) and meteorological records covering the 20th century (July T). The good agreement between diatom-based inferences and measured monitoring data confirmed the prediction ability of the developed transfer functions. Analysing a Holocene sediment core from a lake nearby Abisko (Vuoskkujávri), diatoms infer a linearly decreasing July T trend (1.5 °C) since 6,000 cal. BP, which compares well with inferences based on chironomids and pollen from the same sediment core. The lake-water pH inference shows a pattern of moderate natural acidification (c. 0.5 pH units) since the early Holocene, reaching present-day pH values at c. 5,000 cal. BP. By fitting fossil diatom samples to the modern calibration set by means of residual distance assessment within canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), the early Holocene (between 10,600 and 6,000 cal. BP) was identified as a problematic time-period for diatom-based inferences and, consequently, reconstructions during this period are tentative. Pollen-based inferences also show 'poor' fit between 10,600 and 7,500 cal. BP and chironomids probably provide the most reliable July T reconstruction at Vuoskkujávri, with 'poor' fit only during the initial part of the Holocene (between 10,600 and 10,250 cal. BP). Possible factors confounding diatom-based July T inferences were investigated. Using detrended CCA (DCCA), Holocene sediment sequences from five lakes indicate that during the early Holocene, mainly physical factors such as high minerogenic erosion rates, high temperature and low light availability may have regulated diatom assemblages, favouring Fragilaria species. In all five lakes, diatom assemblages developed in a directional manner, but timing and scale of development differed substantially between lakes. The differences are attributed primarily to the geological properties of the lake catchments (with strong effects on lake-water pH), but other factors such as climatic change, vegetation, hydrologic setting and in-lake processes appear to regulate diatom communities in each lake differently. The influence of long-term natural acidification on diatom assemblages progressively declined during the Holocene with corresponding increase of the influence of climatic factors.

This thesis documents the development and application of a unique database orientated software package, BugsCEP, for environmental and climatic reconstruction from fossil beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages. The software tools are described, and the incorporated statistical methods discussed and evaluated with respect to both published modern and fossil data, as well as the author’s own investigations. BugsCEP consists of a reference database of ecology and distribution data for over 5 800 taxa, and includes temperature tolerance data for 436 species. It also contains abundance and summary data for almost 700 sites - the majority of the known Quaternary fossil coleopteran record of Europe. Sample based dating evidence is stored for a large number of these sites, and the data are supported by a bibliography of over 3 300 sources. Through the use of built in statistical methods, employing a specially developed habitat classification system (Bugs EcoCodes), semi-quantitative environmental reconstructions can be undertaken, and output graphically, to aid in the interpretation of sites. A number of built in searching and reporting functions also increase the efficiency with which analyses can be undertaken, including the facility to list the fossil record of species found by searching the ecology and distribution data. The existing Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) climate reconstruction method is implemented and improved upon in BugsCEP, as BugsMCR, which includes predictive modelling and the output of graphs and climate space maps. The evaluation of the software demonstrates good performance when compared to existing interpretations. The standardization method employed in habitat reconstructions, designed to enable the inter-comparison of samples and sites without the interference of differing numbers of species and individuals, also appears to be robust and effective. Quantitative climate reconstructions can be easily undertaken from within the software, as well as an amount of predictive modelling. The use of jackknifing variants as an aid to the interpretation of climate reconstructions is discussed, and suggested as a potential indicator of reliability. The combination of the BugStats statistical system with an enhanced MCR facility could be extremely useful in increasing our understanding of not only past environmental and climate change, but also the biogeography and ecology of insect populations in general. BugsCEP is the only available software package integrating modern and fossil coleopteran data, and the included reconstruction and analysis tools provide a powerful resource for research and teaching in palaeo-environmental science. The use of modern reference data also makes the package potentially useful in the study of present day insect faunas, and the effects of climate and environmental change on their distributions. The reconstruction methods could thus be inverted, and used as predictive tools in the study of biodiversity and the implications of sustainable development policies on present day habitats. BugsCEP can be downloaded from http://www.bugscep.com