In the present study, methodological approaches to assess the impact of climate change on the thermal and thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) regimes of the ground in some selected Canadian no-permafrost areas (Ottawa, Sudbury, Toronto) is proposed. A modeling study to evaluate ground temperature variations due to global warming is conducted using TEMP/W software from Geoslope ltd. The effect of future climate change projections, up to 2100, on the ground freeze-thaw cycle frequencies, frost penetration depth, and frost duration is assessed in some selected sites located in the Canadian no-permafrost region. Moreover, three softwares (TEMP/W, SEEP/W and SIGMA/W from Geoslope Ltd) have been used to establish a numerical tool that enable to assess the effect of global warming on THM response of the grounds in the selected Canadian no-permafrost areas. TEMP/W and SEEP/W were coupled in a thermo-hydraulic analysis to assess the impact of global warming on the hydraulic regime of the ground. Afterwards, SEEP/W and SIGMA/W were coupled in a hydraulic-mechanical analysis to study the impact of climate change induced porewater pressures change on the mechanical regime of the ground in some no-permafrost regions. Simulation study to assess the effect ground temperature changes on key geotechnical properties of the soils in the selected sites is conducted by using the aforementioned numerical tool. The change of the porewater pressure changes and distributions in the soil induced by global warming is studied. The effect of climate change on the ground consolidation or settlement in the selected no-permafrost sites is also investigated. Finally, this study provides a simulation of a bridge pile foundation ground to detect the THM changes around the pile structure due to climate warming. The results indicate that climate change will affect the thermal regime of the ground in the selected Canadian no permafrost areas. Ground temperature in the studied no-permafrost regions will likely increase by 2 to 4 C by 2100 due to global warming. Furthermore, the frost penetration depth will be significantly reduced in all study areas. It is also found that the frost duration will experience a gradual reduction with time up to 2100. In addition, the simulation results showed minimal influence of global warming on the porewater pressure distribution and magnitude in the studied grounds. Aligned to this, climate change did not seem to have a significant effect on the consolidation behavior or settlement of the ground in the studied no-permafrost areas. The simulation of the foundation ground confirms the results mentioned above, as temperature changes around the pile structure falls within the same range found in the thermal analysis. Porewater pressure distributions and ground settlement are not significantly affected along the pile perimeter. Overall, the design of pile foundation in the Canadian no-permafrost region will not be significantly affected by climate change up 2100. The tools developed and results obtained will be useful for the geotechnical design of climate-adaptive civil engineering or transportation structures in Canadian no permafrost areas.

First Essay: We exploit temporally disaggregated data on weather anomalies andtemporary migration to examine the effect of the former on the latter, and the ef-fectiveness of migration as a coping mechanism to maintain consumption in the faceof adverse weather conditions. We construct a continuous measure of migration thatincreases both with the number of people leaving, and with the length of time theystay away. Our results show that, while weather anomalies do trigger temporary mi-gration, they only do so when they occur before or rather early in the growing season.This suggests that households have a limited ability to respond to unexpected shockswhen they occur late in the season. We also find that weather anomalies can affectmigration patterns several months after they take place and discuss possible mecha-nisms. We find that, conditional on these temporal patterns, households lacking onlabor force endowment and social networks are particularly limited in their abilityto use migration as a coping mechanism and remain, consequently, more vulnerableto shocks. Our analysis reveals how temporal aggregation of weather shocks, widelyimplemented in previous studies, can obscure substantial heterogeneity in migrationresponse, as well as their ability to mitigate adverse impacts.<br><div><br></div><div>Second Essay: The study uses the same framework as the first essay. It uses tem-porally disaggregated data on weather anomalies and temporary migration. However,this study expands the first essay by considering agricultural labor use. Our resultsshow that agricultural labor hiring will not increase, although there is an increasein temporary labor migration by abnormal weather driving the previous agriculturalseason. This suggests that households adjust their agriculture plan with temporary labor migration consideration. When a drought happens in the current agriculturalseason, our result shows that irrigation has mediation effects on hired agricultural la-bor. Our analysis reveals how temporally disaggregated analysis yields more detailedresults for market outcomes.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Third Essay: Sea-level rise induced migration studies usually investigate inter-county or inter-regional migration. However, sea level rise does not affect a countyuniformly. Instead, it affects only specific areas with different socio-economic sta-tus. The objective of this study is to provide information on socio-economic geog-raphy change associated with sea-level rise. We simulate the spatial redistributionof households in the United States coastal areas affected by the expected sea-levelrise. Towards that end, we use a spatial microsimulation. The spatial microsimula-tion proceeds in two steps. In the first step, a synthetic population is generated foreach spatial unit. In the second step, the synthetic population is redistributed as aresponse to sea-level rise. Our results show that, most of the households that migratedue to the sea-level rise, will migrate within the same or to a neighboring census tractareas<br></div>

Sparse information about the wind climate of South Africa behooves an exploration of the drivers of surface wind speed, especially in the context of wind resource assessment. This work quantifies the coupling between the synoptic circulation states and station-scale flows to develop a process-based regionalisation of wind regimes over the country .A thorough inspection of available South African Weather Service (SAWS) wind records is conducted and a quality control procedure is applied. The procedure reveals a large proportion of the data are missing and existing data contain numerous errors such that only107 of the original 960 stations passed the quality control criteria. However, data from these107 stations only overlap temporally 2% of the time, which makes the data inappropriate fora regionalisation procedure. To ameliorate this, a method for incorporating bias-corrected time series data from a reanalysis data set is developed. Data from the 0.3◦ resolution hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) be-tween 1989-2010 is selected to improve the temporal coverage of the station data. The raw CFSR data overestimates wind speeds and underestimates the temporal variability and long-term trends. A bias correction method based on the wind speed and direction, time of day and month of the year is developed which successfully removes the mean error on wind speed and direction and improves the correlation with station records. This is achieved without disrupting spatial correlation patterns. Corrected and extended wind time series from each station site are used for the regionalisation. The regionalisation uses a self-organising map (SOM) to define the archetypal synoptic circulation patterns in the reanalysis data set and the influence of these on the local wind climate is quantified. 12 representative atmospheric states are defined by the SOM that are consistent with the existing literature and capture the major synoptic circulation states. A hierarchical clustering is then used to define wind climate regions based on the coupling between these circulation states and the extended station data. Six relatively cohesive spatial wind-climate groupings are identified that are physically consistent with the driving synoptic environment and are characteristic in terms of terrain and response to synoptic drivers. This process-based regionalisation facilitates a future assessment of potential changes in the wind climate of South Africa as a result of a warming world.

Includes bibliographical references / The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential benefits of increasing resolution in regional climate models in the simulation of climate variability and change over East Africa. This study is based on two high resolution regional climate simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50km and 10km, respectively. These represent present day climate and a projection of future climate change over East Africa. The regional climate model (RCM) used here is HIRHAM5, which is driven by the global circulation model (ECHAM5). Downscaled ECHAM5 output is used to drive the 50km HIRHAM5 simulation for the period 1950-2100, and output from this simulation is used to drive the 10km simulation for three time slices: 1980-1999, representative for present-day climate and two time slices for near future (2046-2065) and far future (2080- 2099), respectively. HIRHAM5 is evaluated with respect to the observed mean climatologies of rainfall, surface temperature and surface winds over East Africa, and representations of the observed annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall and surface temperature. This study utilizes reanalysis and observational datasets: a hindcast of HIRHAM5 forced with ERA Interim, as well as two observation datasets for temperature and rainfall. Since reanalyses aim to make "best use" of all available observations by making a physically consistent representation continuous in time and space, and since there is a paucity of observations over many parts of Africa, the ERAI reanalysis is also used as a best estimate for model evaluation. Additionally, for evaluation of the bimodal nature of East Africa's rainfall, especially over Tanzania, three stations run by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency were used. The model data used in th is evaluation ranges from 1980 to 2006 iv HIRHAM5 demonstrates reasonable skill in the reproduction of observed patterns of mean climatology of rainfall, surface temperature and winds over East Africa. Moreover, the patterns of annual cycles of rainfall and surface temperature in the bimodal nature of East Africa are well represented. Furthermore, the model showed reasonable skill in the representation of the inter- annual variability and ENSO signals as suggested by the observation. Despite these strengths, HIRHAM5 shows some shortcomings. One weakness of the model is the simulation of the magnitude of a given variable over a specific region. For example, HIRHAM5 driven by ERAI underestimates rainfall and overestimates surface temperature over the entire domain of East Africa. The higher resolution HIRHAM5 (10km resolution) overestimates rainfall over high ground. The model bias could be due in part to the inadequacy of the observation networks in East Africa, represented in this thesis by the CRU and FEWS datasets. However, these two datasets draw on some different sources and neither do they have the same resolution. FEWS is a high resolution data (0.1 o ) gridded satellite-derived precipitation estimate covering the entire African continent while CRU datasets is a relatively low resolution (0.5 o ) dataset based on rain gauge monthly precipitation only; in addition , near surface temperature is also available. As no reliable wind observations exist, wind data was taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The different observational datasets do not agree particularly well, which impedes evaluating the quality of the HIRHAM5 simulations, in particular the high resolution one. So while the higher resolution HIRHAM5 appears to be generally reliable, caution must be exercised in formulating conclusions from the results, especially over high ground and remote areas without adequate observation data. Under these constraints, the results suggest HIRHAM5 may be useful for assessing climate variability and change over East Africa. A weakness of the analysis presented here is that only one combination of GCM and RCM could be investigated in depth due to computer and time constraints. Therefore the results presented here, if used in application for climate change adaptation, should be considered in conjunction with a broader suite of data, such from the CORDEX programme. This has potential to increase the reliability of information about climate variability and change at a regional to local level necessary for impact assessment.

Forests are valuable ecosystems to society but are greatly threatened by changing factors from habitat conversion to climate change. South Africa's only extent of indigenous forest is predicted to disappear within the next 30 years. Many challenges are currently faced when trying to detect and interpret directional changes in forests which results in an urgent need to understand any effects that these change factors have on forest ecosystems. We investigate evidence for change in the old growth Lilyvlei Nature Reserve by monitoring growth and dynamics at various levels by examining a 20 year record of tree growth and stand dynamics. Through the inclusion of biodiversity measures and ecologically important plant traits, changes in forest dynamics and growth are investigated. Results show no total change in biomass across the 20 year period, although an intensification of extreme climatic events and dynamics indices were recorded for the second period. Significant correlations were found between community diversity measures and forest growth. Trait variables showed insignificant correlations with forest growth and dynamics. These results suggest that the Knysna forest is controlled by climatic variables and that increased diversity within communities result in increased growth. It is believed that changes in the forest may be masked by compositional shifts of just a few dominant species. These results become important, particularly in the light of changing climatic, atmospheric and environmental changes that threaten global ecosystems in the time to come. However, considering the brief 20 year period observed in a forest where the average individual has a life span of over a century, the importance of long term monitoring becomes an important component in the understanding of forest ecosystems.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions lead to an increase in the amount of cloud condensation nuclei and consequently an increase in cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo. The corresponding negative radiative forcing due to aerosol cloud interactions (RFaci) is one of the most uncertain radiative forcing terms as reported in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here we show that previous observation-based studies underestimate aerosol-cloud interactions because they used measurements of aerosol optical properties that are not directly related to cloud formation and are hampered by measurement uncertainties. We have overcome this problem by the use of new polarimetric satellite retrievals of the relevant aerosol properties (aerosol number, size, shape). The resulting estimate of RFaci = −1.14 Wm 2 (range between −0.84 and −1.72 Wm 2) is more than a factor 2 stronger than the IPCC estimate that includes also other aerosol induced changes in cloud properties.

Global climate change and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are affecting all levels of biodiversity in a number of ways. For example, the unique vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) is expected to experience increased temperatures while rainfall becomes more seasonal, resulting in stronger summer drought with greater hydraulic stress in plants. Increased CO₂ concentrations, on the other hand, are expected to relieve hydraulic stress in plants that utilize the C3 pathway for photosynthesis (most fynbos species), by reducing the amount of time they have to keep their stomata open to take up the CO₂ they require. Observed weather data suggest that rainfall has remained relatively stable over the last 21 years, while temperatures for the region have increased marginally. Here I explore variation in the hydraulic traits (leaf and xylem anatomy) of Protea repens (L.) across a spatial climatic gradient in the CFR relative to a common garden experiment. I then compare the contemporary trait-climate relationships with a 21 year old xylem anatomy dataset. In the common garden experiment I explore xylem and leaf trait variation in P. repens from thirteen populations representing a gradient in temperature and mean annual precipitation. Because trait-gradient relationships can be confounded by genetic differences between populations along the gradient, I used a common garden experiment to test the degree to which trait variation was genetically constrained among populations. My results show that xylem vessel diameters and an estimate of hydraulic conductance increased with increases in maximum temperature and soil moisture days across the spatial gradient. My results for the common garden experiment does however show genetically constrained intra-specific differences in xylem vessel morphology between populations. Despite this, differences in xylem vessel and leaf morphology between plants in the common garden and their source locality demonstrate that P. repens has some ability to respond to changes in the environment through phenotypic plasticity. To determine the response of P. repens to changes in climate over the past 21 years, I compared contemporary xylem anatomy to an existing dataset collected from the same sites in 1994. My results show no significant change in vessel diameters since 1994 even though temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ have increased, with no change in rainfall amount. These results suggest that either P. repens is not experiencing increased drought stress under current climate conditions, or that xylem vessel anatomy is not a good proxy for small changes in drought stress in this species. The effect of increased drought stress due to higher temperatures and associated evaporative demand may be alleviated by increased atmospheric CO₂ reducing the amount of time the plants have to keep their stomata open to take up the CO₂ they require. Similarly, it is possible that drought stress has not changed substantially over this period, because a reduction in wind run across the CFR may have balanced the increase in evaporative demand created by higher temperatures. At a plant level, P. repens may not respond to small increases in drought stress by utilising deep water. In addition, P. repens is potentially able to reduce stomatal conductance thereby alleviating xylem anatomical responses to the small change in temperature since 1994.

Includes bibliographical references / Uncertainty in climate system initial conditions (ICs) is known to limit the predictability of future atmospheric states. On weather time scales (i.e. hours to days), the separation between two atmospheric model trajectories, initially "indistinguishable" (compared to unavoidable uncertainties) from one another, diverges exponentially-on-average over time, so that the "memory" of model ICs is eventually lost. In other words, there is a theoretical limit in the lead time for skilful weather forecasts. However, the influence of perturbations to climate system model ICs - particularly in more slowly evolving climate system components (e.g., the oceans and ice sheets) - on the evolution of model "climates" on longer time scales is less well understood. Hence, in order to better understand the role of IC uncertainty in climate predictability, particularly in the context of climate change, it is necessary to develop approaches for investigating and quantifying - at various spatial and temporal scales - the nature of the influence of ICs on the evolution of climate system trajectories. To this end, this study explores different conceptualisations and competing definitions of climate and the climate system, focussing on the role of ICs. The influence of ICs on climate quantifications, using probability distributions, is subsequently investigated in a climate model experiments using a low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The model experiment consists of 11 different 50-member ensemble simulations with constant forcing, and three 50-member ensemble simulations under a climate change scenario with transient forcing. By analysing the output at global and regional scales, at least three distinct levels of IC influence are detected: (a) microscopic influence; (b) interannual-scale influence; and (c) intercentennial-scale influence. Distinct patterns of interannual-scale IC influence appear to be attributable to aperiodic and quasi-periodic variability in the model. It is found that, over some spatial domains, significant (p < 0.01) differences in atmospheric variable "climatologies", taken from 60-year distributions of model trajectories, occur due to IC differences of a similar order to round-off error. In addition, climate distributions constructed using different approaches are found to differ significantly. There is some evidence that ensemble distributions of multidecadal temperature response to transient forcing conditions can be influenced by ICs. The implications for quantifying and conceptualising climate are considered in the context of the experimental results. It is concluded that IC ensemble experiments can play a valuable role in better understanding climate variability and change, as well as allowing for superior quantification of model climates.

This study examines the relationship between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and extreme rainfall events over West Africa, and investigates how climate change could alter this relationship in the future. Satellite observations, reanalysis data, and regional climate model (RCA4) simulations (forced with eight global climate simulations) were analysed for the study. The study used the 95th percentile of daily rainfall as a threshold to identify extreme rainfall events, and applied spectral analysis to extract 3-5 days and 6-9 days AEWs from 700hPa meridional wind component over West Africa. The capability of RCA4 to reproduce the rainfall climatology, extreme rainfall events, the characteristics of AEWs and the contribution of AEWs to extreme rainfall events over the region during the past climate (1971-2005) was examined and quantified using statistical analysis. The future changes (2031-2065) in these parameters were projected for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate-change scenarios. The results of the study show that RCA4 gives a realistic simulation of the West African climate, including the annual rainfall pattern, the structure of AEWs, and the characteristics of the African Easterly Jet that feeds AEWs. The bias in the simulated threshold of extreme rainfall is within the uncertainty of the observed values. The model also captures the link between the structure of AEWs and the rainfall pattern over West Africa, and shows that the percentage contribution of AEWs to extreme rainfall events over the region ranges from 20 to 60%, as depicted by reanalysis data. For the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the RCA4 ensemble mean projects a future increase in annual rainfall and in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events over the sub-continent, but the increase is generally higher for the RCP8.5 scenario. It also projects a decrease in the frequency of rain days, no changes in the structure of the AEWs, and an increase in the variance of the waves. However, the simulations from the ensemble mean shows no substantial changes in the contribution of AEWs to the extreme rainfall events, suggesting that the increase in the frequency and intensity of the extreme rainfall events may not be attributable to the changes in AEWs. The study's application is in understanding and mitigating the future impact of climate extremes over West Africa.

abstract: Population growth, social interaction, and environmental variability are interrelated facets of the same complex system. Tracing the flow of food, water, information, and energy within these social-ecological systems is essential for understanding their long-term behavior. Leveraging an archaeological perspective of how past societies coevolved with their natural environments will be critical to anticipating the impact of impending climate change on farming communities in the developing world. However, there is currently a lack of formal, quantitative theory rooted in first principles of human behavior that can predict the empirical regularities of the archaeological record in semiarid regions. Through a series of models -- statistical, computational, and mathematical -- and empirical data from two long-term archaeological case studies in the pre-Hispanic American Southwest and Roman North Africa, I explore the feedbacks between population growth and social interaction in water-limited agrarian societies. First, I use a statistical model to analyze a database of 7.5 million artifacts collected from nearly 500 archaeological sites in the Southwest and found that sites located in different climatic zones were more likely to interact with one another than a sites occupying the same zone. Next, I develop a computational model of demography and food production in ancient agrarian societies and, using North Africa as a motivating example, show how the concrete actions and interactions of millions of individual people lead to emergent patterns of population growth and stability. Finally, I build a simple mathematical model of trade and migration among agricultural settlements to determine how the relative costs and benefits of social interaction drive population growth and shape long-term settlement patterns. Together, these studies form the foundation for a unified quantitative approach to regional social-ecological systems. By combining theory and methods from ecology, geography, and climate science, archaeologists can better leverage insights from diverse times and places to fill critical knowledge gaps in the study of food security and sustainability in the drylands of today. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Anthropology 2019