• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 1
  • Tagged with
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Emprego de modelos clim?ticos (CCCma e GFDL) como ferramenta para o zoneamento de cana-de-a??car (Saccharum) no estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. / Use of climate models (CCCma and GFDL) as a tool for sugarcane zoning (Saccharum) in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Magistrali, Iris Cristiane 20 February 2017 (has links)
Submitted by Celso Magalhaes (celsomagalhaes@ufrrj.br) on 2017-08-29T12:36:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017 - Iris Cristiane Magistrali.pdf: 5586295 bytes, checksum: cf90d85c09628780240eede5db4ec99e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-29T12:36:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017 - Iris Cristiane Magistrali.pdf: 5586295 bytes, checksum: cf90d85c09628780240eede5db4ec99e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-20 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published reports on issues related to global climate changes. As a result, the climatic suitability of various agricultural crops in different regions of the world may change. Sugarcane is an important agricultural species and it is grown in several regions of the world, mainly for the generation of sugar and ethanol. Given this, there is a need for studies that assess the consequences of climate change in this crop in future scenarios. Therefore, the present work has as objectives: 1) to evaluate the performance of two climatic models CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis) and GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory) in the baseline period (1961-2000), and in the Future scenario A1B (2046-2065); 2) to elaborate the zoning of sugarcane for the State of Rio de Janeiro due to the A1B scenario considered intermediate. For the evaluation of the models performance, descriptive statistical analysis and spatial interpolation (Kriging and Co- Kriging ordinary) was used based on temperature and rainfall variables in water balance of the crop for the elaboration of agro climatic zoning, calculated by Thornthwaite & Mather?s (1955) method. The zoning was elaborated based on the reclassified thematic maps of water deficit and temperature. We used images from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) radar for altimetry, and map of use and ground cover. The results referring to the descriptive measures in the different points of the model showed the average rainfall ranged from 1118.02 mm to 1447.47 mm for the CCCma model. However, for the GFDL model average rainfall was lower than the CCCma, ranging from 804.82 mm to 1013.72 mm. The temperature averages presented similar behaviour and presented little oscillation during the year, when compared with the rainfall. For the CCCma model, the minimum average temperature was 21.02 ?C and the maximum was 22.99 ?C. For the GFDL model, the mean minimum temperature was 20.62 ?C and the maximum was 23.47 ?C. The CCCma model presented the data closest to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOOA) reanalysis data, and the GFDL model underestimated most rainfall and temperature data. The average rainfall of the NOOA data ranged from a minimum to a maximum of 947.74 mm at 1689.77 mm, respectively, and the minimum and maximum average temperature of 19.62 ? C and 21.62 ? C, respectively. Through geostatistics, it was possible to verify that, for the past and future scenarios, the exponential transitive model presented in the majority of cases the least degree of spatial dependence (GDE), being therefore considered the best. When comparing the GDE of the two climate models, noticed that the CCCma presented the best geostatistical performance. Due to the high GDE values, it was not possible to interpolate the GFDL model data regarding temperature for the future scenario. Through the product MCD12Q1, it was possible to register relevant differences in rainfall and temperature. Urban areas in general have lower amounts of rainfall and higher temperatures compared to areas with forest occurrence. In relation to the zoning, the results showed that for the past conditions, as well as for future projections, there is no water restriction for the development of the sugarcane crop. The temperature showed an increase in the future scenario adopted and, consequently, expansion of areas suitable for cultivation / O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudan?as Clim?ticas (IPCC) tem publicado relat?rios sobre quest?es ligadas as altera??es no clima global. Em fun??o disso, a aptid?o clim?tica de diversas culturas agr?colas em diferentes regi?es do mundo pode sofrer altera??es. A cana-de-a??car ? uma esp?cie agr?cola importante e, ? cultivada em v?rias regi?es do mundo, principalmente para a gera??o de a??car e etanol. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de estudos que avaliem as consequ?ncias das mudan?as clim?ticas nessa cultura em cen?rios futuros. Portanto, o presente trabalho tem como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho de dois modelos clim?ticos CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) e GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory) no per?odo ?baseline? (1961-2000), e no cen?rio futuro A1B (2046-2065); 2) elaborar o zoneamento da cana-de-a??car para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro em fun??o do cen?rio de emiss?o A1B considerado intermedi?rio. Para a avalia??o do desempenho dos modelos foi utilizado an?lise estat?stica descritiva e interpola??o espacial (Krigagem e Co-Krigagem ordin?ria) para as vari?veis temperatura e chuva. Para a etapa da elabora??o do zoneamento agroclim?tico procedeu-se o c?lculo dos balan?os h?dricos da cultura, pelo m?todo de Thornthwaite e Mather (1955). Baseados nos mapas tem?ticos reclassificados de defici?ncia h?drica e temperatura elaborou-se o zoneamento. Utilizou-se imagens provenientes do radar SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) para a altimetria, e, mapa de uso e cobertura do solo. Os resultados referentes as medidas descritivas nos diferentes pontos do modelo, mostraram que a m?dia da chuva variou de 1118,02 mm ? 1447,47 mm, para o modelo CCCma. Entretanto, para o modelo GFDL a m?dia da chuva foi inferior ao CCCma, variando de 804,82 mm ? 1013,72 mm. As m?dias de temperatura apresentaram comportamento semelhante e apresentaram pouca oscila??o durante o ano, se comparada a chuva. Para o modelo CCCma a temperatura m?dia m?nima foi de 21,02 ?C e a m?xima de 22,99 ?C. Para o modelo GFDL temperatura m?dia m?nima foi de 20,62 ?C e a m?xima de 23,47 ?C. O modelo CCCma apresentou os dados mais pr?ximos aos dados de rean?lise do National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOOA), sendo que o modelo GFDL subestimou a maioria dos dados de chuva e temperatura. A chuva m?dia dos dados do NOOA variou entre a m?nima e m?xima de 947,74 mm ? 1689,77 mm, respectivamente, e a temperatura m?dia m?nima e m?xima de 19,62 ?C e 21,62 ?C, respectivamente. Atrav?s da geoestat?stica, foi poss?vel constatar que tanto para o cen?rio passado quanto o futuro, o modelo transitivo exponencial apresentou na maioria dos casos o menor grau de depend?ncia espacial (GDE), sendo portanto, considerado o melhor. Ao comparar o GDE dos dois modelos clim?ticos, verifica-se que o CCCma apresentou o melhor desempenho geoestat?stico. Devido ao altos valores de GDE n?o foi poss?vel interpolar os dados do modelo GFDL referente a temperatura para o cen?rio futuro. Atrav?s do produto MCD12Q1 foi poss?vel registrar diferen?as relevantes em rela??o a chuva e a temperatura. ?reas urbanas em geral apresentam menores quantidades de chuvas e maiores temperaturas se comparadas ? ?reas com ocorr?ncia de floresta. Em rela??o ao zoneamento os resultados mostraram que tanto para as condi??es do passado, quanto para proje??es futuras, n?o h? restri??o h?drica para o desenvolvimento da cultura da cana-de-a??car. A temperatura apresentou um aumento no cen?rio futuro adotado e consequentemente expans?o de ?reas aptas ao cultivo. Praticamente todo o estado apresenta ?reas aptas em rela??o a topografia, exceto as regi?es serranas. Atrav?s do zoneamento final, ix foi poss?vel constatar que no cen?rio futuro adotado haver? uma expans?o da cana-de-a??car em torno de 58%, podendo esse resultado estar aliado ao aumento da temperatura.

Page generated in 0.1143 seconds