La perception optimiste que les gens ont de l’avenir a fait l’objet de nombreuses études. Elles ont conduit à observer une expression auto-avantageuse lors des comparaisons de son avenir à celui d’autrui (i.e., l’optimisme comparatif). Ces études ont examiné minutieusement les conditions de son émergence et ses explications intra-individuelles (motivationnelles et cognitives). D’autres études, rares mais souvent convaincantes, ont montré l’impact de la situation, de la position sociale et de la culture dans lesquelles l’optimisme comparatif est exprimé. Les explications qui en découlent interrogent plus largement l’influence des systèmes idéologiques, dans lesquelles sont insérés les gens, sur l’expression de l’optimisme comparatif. Ce dernier, principalement obtenu dans les cultures occidentales et des systèmes idéologiques libéraux, caractérisés par une dimension compétitive forte, entretient de nombreux liens avec la compétition. Afin de tester la dimension compétitive de l’optimisme comparatif ou dans quelle mesure la compétition facilite l’expression d’optimisme comparatif, nous avons mené sept études. Pour l’essentiel, elles montrent que la compétition tend à être associée à l’optimisme comparatif et à l’accroître. En outre, elles montrent la dimension d’utilité sociale de l’optimisme comparatif et que la relation entre compétition et optimisme comparatif est médiatisée par les buts de performances. Nous en concluons que l’optimisme comparatif, reflet de la compétition induite par la comparaison à autrui, est l’expression des conditions, notamment idéologiques, ultra-compétitives de nos sociétés occidentales, dans lesquelles il est exprimé. / Optimistic perception that people have of the future has been the subject of numerous studies. They led to observe an advantageous self expression when comparing his future to that of others (i.e., comparative optimism). These studies have scrutinized the conditions of its emergence and its intra-individual explanations (motivational and cognitive). Other studies rare but often compelling, showed the impact of the situation, social position and culture in which the comparative optimism is expressed. Explanations ensuing question more broadly the influence of ideological systems in which people are inserted, the expression of comparative optimism. The latter, obtained mainly in Western cultures and liberal ideological systems, characterized by strong competitive dimension, maintains many links with the competition. To test the competitive dimension of comparative optimism or to what extent the competition facilitates the expression of comparative optimism, we conducted seven studies. In essence, they show that the competition tends to be associated with comparative optimism and grow. In addition, they show the dimension of social utility of comparative optimism and the relationship between competition and comparative optimism is mediated by performance goals. We conclude that the comparative optimism, reflecting the competition induced by comparison to others, is the expression of conditions, including ideological, ultra-competitive in our Western societies in which it is expressed.

Ces travaux, menés en région PACA, visent à comprendre comment amener les individus à se protéger du risque sismique. Dans ce cadre, nous avons exploré les effets comportementaux de la substitution de soi à autrui, puis observé les comportements effectifs de protection lors d’une étude de terrain. En interprétant la consigne de substitution en termes de comparaison sociale, le paradigme repose sur une distinction entre la contrôlabilité des effets d’un séisme et l’incontrôlabilité de son occurrence. Après avoir activé un élément central ou périphérique de la représentation sociale des séismes, il s’agit dans un premier temps d’inviter les individus à évaluer la probabilité des effets d’un séisme en consigne de substitution, et ensuite à évaluer la probabilité d’occurrence d’un séisme en consigne standard. Sous l’effet d’un biais d’optimisme comparatif, les individus déclarent systématiquement une probabilité des effets d’un séisme supérieure en consigne de substitution qu’en consigne standard. De même, selon un principe de consistance cognitive, ils déclarent une probabilité d’occurrence d’un séisme supérieure après avoir évalué la probabilité de ses effets selon une consigne de substitution. Les comportements de protection étaient ensuite mesurés à l’aide de la version française de l’échelle de préparation aux séismes. Les comportements de protection auto-déclarés sont significativement plus favorables suite à une réponse en consigne de substitution plutôt que standard. Toutefois, les effets du paradigme sur les comportements effectifs de protection sont plus mitigés. / The goal of this research, conducted in the PACA region, was to understand how to lead individuals to adopt earthquake protection behaviour. To this end, we explored the behavioural effects of self-other substitution, and observed actual protection behaviours in a field study. By interpreting self-other substitution in terms of social comparison, the paradigm relies on a distinction between the uncontrollability of an earthquake and the controllability of its consequences. After having activated a central or peripheral element of the social representation of earthquakes, participants are required to evaluate the probability of an earthquake’s effects in a substitutive context, and then the probability of an earthquake in a standard context. Comparative optimism leads participants to declare that the effects of an earthquake are more probable in a substitutive rather than standard context. Furthermore, a cognitive consistency principle seems to lead participants to declare that an earthquake is more likely after having evaluated the probability of its effects in a substitutive rather than standard context. Protection behaviours were measured using the French version of the Earthquake Readiness Scale. Self-declared protection behaviours were more favourable after a substitutive rather than standard answer. However, the effects on actual behaviours are mixed.

People aged ≥65 years (older people) have a higher chance of falling than other age groups. However, based on qualitative research, older people do not believe that falls prevention information and strategies have personal relevance. This suggests that older people believe that falls are more likely to happen to other older people than themselves, that is, they might be comparatively optimistic about their chance of falling. It is important to understand comparative optimism about falling as it is a consistent reason given by older people for not participating in falls prevention activity. This thesis used a mixed methods design with a sequential strategy to investigate community-dwelling older people's comparative optimism about falling. Three studies were undertaken, using semi-structured interviews, cognitive interviews and telephone interviews to collect data. The semi-structured interview study, guided by the tenets of grounded theory, aimed to develop an explanation of why older people might be comparatively optimistic. A sampling frame (age, sex and direct and indirect history of falling) was used to guide recruiting respondents. Older people (N = 9) were interviewed about their chance and other older people's chance of falling. Interviews were analysed using the constant comparison method. The cognitive interview study investigated potential problems in survey items in order to refine them for the telephone interview study. Items were developed to measure older people's comparative optimism about falling. Older people (N = 13) were cognitively interviewed, and interviews were content analysed. The telephone interview study aimed to determine whether older people were comparatively optimistic about falling, and whether the direct and indirect experience of falling was associated with comparative optimism. A random sample of older people (N = 389) living in South Australia were telephone interviewed (response rate = 75%). The semi-structured interview study identified that it was a 'threat to identity' for respondents to say they had a chance of falling because of intrinsic risk factors. Respondents used strategies to maintain or protect their identity when discussing their chance of falling in the future or their reasons for falling in the past. In the cognitive interview study, respondents reported difficulty in rating their chance of falling, as they believed falls were unexpected and unpredictable. They reported difficulty in rating other people's chance of falling, as they believed they did not know other people their age, did not have enough information and/or did not know the answer. In the telephone interview study, most respondents believed they had the same chance (42%), or a lower chance (48%) of falling in the next 12 months, than other older people. Having fallen in the last 12 months was significantly associated with a lowered comparative optimism, but knowing other older people who had fallen was not associated with comparative optimism. This is the first quantitative study to report that the majority of a representative sample of community-dwelling older people were comparatively optimistic about their chance of falling. Self-presentation concerns about having a chance of falling support the core category to emerge from the semi-structured interview study. Messages such as 'you can reduce your risk of falls' may be ignored by older people. Alternative messages should promote identities that are relevant to older people, such as being independent, mobile and active, but these messages should be tested in further research. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1374964 / Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Adelaide, School of Psychology and School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, 2009

People aged ≥65 years (older people) have a higher chance of falling than other age groups. However, based on qualitative research, older people do not believe that falls prevention information and strategies have personal relevance. This suggests that older people believe that falls are more likely to happen to other older people than themselves, that is, they might be comparatively optimistic about their chance of falling. It is important to understand comparative optimism about falling as it is a consistent reason given by older people for not participating in falls prevention activity. This thesis used a mixed methods design with a sequential strategy to investigate community-dwelling older people's comparative optimism about falling. Three studies were undertaken, using semi-structured interviews, cognitive interviews and telephone interviews to collect data. The semi-structured interview study, guided by the tenets of grounded theory, aimed to develop an explanation of why older people might be comparatively optimistic. A sampling frame (age, sex and direct and indirect history of falling) was used to guide recruiting respondents. Older people (N = 9) were interviewed about their chance and other older people's chance of falling. Interviews were analysed using the constant comparison method. The cognitive interview study investigated potential problems in survey items in order to refine them for the telephone interview study. Items were developed to measure older people's comparative optimism about falling. Older people (N = 13) were cognitively interviewed, and interviews were content analysed. The telephone interview study aimed to determine whether older people were comparatively optimistic about falling, and whether the direct and indirect experience of falling was associated with comparative optimism. A random sample of older people (N = 389) living in South Australia were telephone interviewed (response rate = 75%). The semi-structured interview study identified that it was a 'threat to identity' for respondents to say they had a chance of falling because of intrinsic risk factors. Respondents used strategies to maintain or protect their identity when discussing their chance of falling in the future or their reasons for falling in the past. In the cognitive interview study, respondents reported difficulty in rating their chance of falling, as they believed falls were unexpected and unpredictable. They reported difficulty in rating other people's chance of falling, as they believed they did not know other people their age, did not have enough information and/or did not know the answer. In the telephone interview study, most respondents believed they had the same chance (42%), or a lower chance (48%) of falling in the next 12 months, than other older people. Having fallen in the last 12 months was significantly associated with a lowered comparative optimism, but knowing other older people who had fallen was not associated with comparative optimism. This is the first quantitative study to report that the majority of a representative sample of community-dwelling older people were comparatively optimistic about their chance of falling. Self-presentation concerns about having a chance of falling support the core category to emerge from the semi-structured interview study. Messages such as 'you can reduce your risk of falls' may be ignored by older people. Alternative messages should promote identities that are relevant to older people, such as being independent, mobile and active, but these messages should be tested in further research. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1374964 / Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Adelaide, School of Psychology and School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, 2009