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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第20868号 / 経博第563号 / 新制||経||283(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 西山 慶彦, 准教授 山田 憲, 准教授 高野 久紀 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

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Empirical likelihood, which was pioneered by Thomas and Grunkemeier (1975) and Owen (1988), is a powerful nonparametric method of statistical inference that has been widely used in the statistical literature. In this thesis, we investigate the merits of empirical likelihood for various problems arising in ratio estimation. First, motivated by the smooth empirical likelihood (SEL) approach proposed by Zhou & Jing (2003), we develop empirical likelihood estimators for diagnostic test likelihood ratios (DLRs), and derive the asymptotic distributions for suitable likelihood ratio statistics under certain regularity conditions. To skirt the bandwidth selection problem that arises in smooth estimation, we propose an empirical likelihood estimator for the same DLRs that is based on non-smooth estimating equations (NEL). Via simulation studies, we compare the statistical properties of these empirical likelihood estimators (SEL, NEL) to certain natural competitors, and identify situations in which SEL and NEL provide superior estimation capabilities. Next, we focus on deriving an empirical likelihood estimator of a baseline cumulative hazard ratio with respect to covariate adjustments under two nonproportional hazard model assumptions. Under typical regularity conditions, we show that suitable empirical likelihood ratio statistics each converge in distribution to a 2 random variable. Through simulation studies, we investigate the advantages of this empirical likelihood approach compared to use of the usual normal approximation. Two examples from previously published clinical studies illustrate the use of the empirical likelihood methods we have described. Empirical likelihood has obvious appeal in deriving point and interval estimators for time-to-event data. However, when we use this method and its asymptotic critical value to construct simultaneous confidence bands for survival or cumulative hazard functions, it typically necessitates very large sample sizes to achieve reliable coverage accuracy. We propose using a bootstrap method to recalibrate the critical value of the sampling distribution of the sample log-likelihood ratios. Via simulation studies, we compare our EL-based bootstrap estimator for the survival function with EL-HW and EL-EP bands proposed by Hollander et al. (1997) and apply this method to obtain a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative hazard ratios in the two clinical studies that we mentioned above. While copulas have been a popular statistical tool for modeling dependent data in recent years, selecting a parametric copula is a nontrivial task that may lead to model misspecification because different copula families involve different correlation structures. This observation motivates us to use empirical likelihood to estimate a copula nonparametrically. With this EL-based estimator of a copula, we derive a goodness-of-fit test for assessing a specific parametric copula model. By means of simulations, we demonstrate the merits of our EL-based testing procedure. We demonstrate this method using the data from Wieand et al. (1989). In the final chapter of the thesis, we provide a brief introduction to several areas for future research involving the empirical likelihood approach.

Empirical likelihood, which was pioneered by Thomas and Grunkemeier (1975) and Owen (1988), is a powerful nonparametric method of statistical inference that has been widely used in the statistical literature. In this thesis, we investigate the merits of empirical likelihood for various problems arising in ratio estimation. First, motivated by the smooth empirical likelihood (SEL) approach proposed by Zhou & Jing (2003), we develop empirical likelihood estimators for diagnostic test likelihood ratios (DLRs), and derive the asymptotic distributions for suitable likelihood ratio statistics under certain regularity conditions. To skirt the bandwidth selection problem that arises in smooth estimation, we propose an empirical likelihood estimator for the same DLRs that is based on non-smooth estimating equations (NEL). Via simulation studies, we compare the statistical properties of these empirical likelihood estimators (SEL, NEL) to certain natural competitors, and identify situations in which SEL and NEL provide superior estimation capabilities. Next, we focus on deriving an empirical likelihood estimator of a baseline cumulative hazard ratio with respect to covariate adjustments under two nonproportional hazard model assumptions. Under typical regularity conditions, we show that suitable empirical likelihood ratio statistics each converge in distribution to a 2 random variable. Through simulation studies, we investigate the advantages of this empirical likelihood approach compared to use of the usual normal approximation. Two examples from previously published clinical studies illustrate the use of the empirical likelihood methods we have described. Empirical likelihood has obvious appeal in deriving point and interval estimators for time-to-event data. However, when we use this method and its asymptotic critical value to construct simultaneous confidence bands for survival or cumulative hazard functions, it typically necessitates very large sample sizes to achieve reliable coverage accuracy. We propose using a bootstrap method to recalibrate the critical value of the sampling distribution of the sample log-likelihood ratios. Via simulation studies, we compare our EL-based bootstrap estimator for the survival function with EL-HW and EL-EP bands proposed by Hollander et al. (1997) and apply this method to obtain a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative hazard ratios in the two clinical studies that we mentioned above. While copulas have been a popular statistical tool for modeling dependent data in recent years, selecting a parametric copula is a nontrivial task that may lead to model misspecification because different copula families involve different correlation structures. This observation motivates us to use empirical likelihood to estimate a copula nonparametrically. With this EL-based estimator of a copula, we derive a goodness-of-fit test for assessing a specific parametric copula model. By means of simulations, we demonstrate the merits of our EL-based testing procedure. We demonstrate this method using the data from Wieand et al. (1989). In the final chapter of the thesis, we provide a brief introduction to several areas for future research involving the empirical likelihood approach.

迴歸分析中，若變數間有非線性(nonlinear)的關係，此時我們可以用B-spline線性迴歸，一種無母數的方法，建立模型。Penalized spline是B-spline方法的一種改良，其想法是增加一懲罰項，避免估計函數時出現過度配適的問題。本文中，考慮三種方法:(a) Marginal Mixed Model approach, (b) Conditional Mixed Model approach, (c) 貝氏方法建立信賴帶，其中，我們對第一二種方法內的估計式作了一點調整，另外，懲罰項中的平滑參數也是我們考慮的問題。我們發現平滑參數確實會影響信賴帶，所以我們使用cross-validation來選取平滑參數。在調整的cross-validation下，Marginal Mixed Model的信賴帶估計不平滑的函數效果較好，Conditional Mixed Model的信賴帶估計平滑函數的效果較好，貝氏的信賴帶估計函數效果較差。 / In regression analysis, we can use B-spline to estimate regression function nonparametrically when the regression function is nonlinear. Penalized splines have been proposed to improve the performance of B-splines by including a penalty term to prevent over-fitting. In this article, we compare confidence bands constructed by three estimation methods: (a) Marginal Mixed Model approach, (b) Conditional Mixed Model approach, and (c) Bayesian approach. We modify the first two methods slightly. In addition, the selection of smoothing parameter of penalization is considered. We found that the smoothing parameter affects confidence bands a lot, so we use cross-validation to choose the smoothing parameter. Finally, based on the restricted cross-validation, Marginal Mixed Model performs better for less smooth regression functions, Conditional Mixed Model performs better for smooth regression functions and Bayesian approach performs badly.

In the dissertation, we study the statistical evaluation of treatment comparisons by evaluating the relative comparison of survival experiences between two treatment groups. We construct confidence interval and simultaneous confidence bands for the ratio and odds ratio of two survival functions through both parametric and nonparametric approaches.We first construct empirical likelihood confidence interval and simultaneous confidence bands for the odds ratio of two survival functions to address small sample efficacy and sufficiency. The empirical log-likelihood ratio is developed, and the corresponding asymptotic distribution is derived. Simulation studies show that the proposed empirical likelihood band has outperformed the normal approximation band in small sample size cases in the sense that it yields closer coverage probabilities to chosen nominal levels.Furthermore, in order to incorporate prognostic factors for the adjustment of survival functions in the comparison, we construct simultaneous confidence bands for the ratio and odds ratio of survival functions based on both the Cox model and the additive risk model. We develop simultaneous confidence bands by approximating the limiting distribution of cumulative hazard functions by zero-mean Gaussian processes whose distributions can be generated through Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance for proposed models. Real applications on published clinical trial data sets are also studied for further illustration purposes.In the end, the population attributable fraction function is studied to measure the impact of risk factors on disease incidence in the population. We develop semiparametric estimation of attributable fraction functions for cohort studies with potentially censored event time under the additive risk model.

In the dissertation, we study the statistical evaluation of treatment comparisons by evaluating the relative comparison of survival experiences between two treatment groups. We construct confidence interval and simultaneous confidence bands for the ratio and odds ratio of two survival functions through both parametric and nonparametric approaches.We first construct empirical likelihood confidence interval and simultaneous confidence bands for the odds ratio of two survival functions to address small sample efficacy and sufficiency. The empirical log-likelihood ratio is developed, and the corresponding asymptotic distribution is derived. Simulation studies show that the proposed empirical likelihood band has outperformed the normal approximation band in small sample size cases in the sense that it yields closer coverage probabilities to chosen nominal levels.Furthermore, in order to incorporate prognostic factors for the adjustment of survival functions in the comparison, we construct simultaneous confidence bands for the ratio and odds ratio of survival functions based on both the Cox model and the additive risk model. We develop simultaneous confidence bands by approximating the limiting distribution of cumulative hazard functions by zero-mean Gaussian processes whose distributions can be generated through Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance for proposed models. Real applications on published clinical trial data sets are also studied for further illustration purposes.In the end, the population attributable fraction function is studied to measure the impact of risk factors on disease incidence in the population. We develop semiparametric estimation of attributable fraction functions for cohort studies with potentially censored event time under the additive risk model.

近年來剖面資料的監控在統計製程控制中有很大範圍的應用。在這篇論文裡，我們針對監控無母數剖面資料提出一個實務上的操作方法。這個操作方法有下列這些重要的特色：(1)使用一個靈活且有計算效率的無母數模型B-spline來描述反應變數與解釋變數的關係；(2)一般迴歸模型中之殘差結構假設是不需要的；(3)允許剖面資料內之觀測值間具有相關性之結構。最後，我們利用一個無線偵測器的實際資料來評估所提出方法的效率。 / Profile monitoring has received increasingly attention in a wide range of applications in statistical process control (SPC). In this work, we propose a practical proposed guide which has the following important features: (i) a flexible and computationally efficient smoothing technique, called the B-spline, is employed to describe the relationship between the response variable and the explanatory variable(s); (ii) the usual structural assumptions on the residuals are not require; and (iii) the dependence structure for the within-profile observations is appropriately accommodated. Finally, a real data set from a wireless sensor is used to evaluate the efficiency of our proposed method.

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden Holzwerkstoffe im statischen Biegeversuch und im Schlagbiegeversuch vergleichend geprüft. Ausgewählte Holzwerkstoffe werden thermisch geschädigt, zudem wird eine relevante Kerbgeometrie geprüft. Ziel der Untersuchungen ist die Eignung verschiedenartiger Werkstoffe für den Einsatz in sicherheitsrelevanten Anwendungen mit Schlagbelastungen zu prüfen. Hierzu werden zunächst die Grundlagen der instrumentierten Schlagprüfung und der Holzwerkstoffe erarbeitet. Der Stand der Technik wird dargelegt und bereits durchgeführte Studien werden analysiert. Darauf aufbauend wird eine eigene Prüfeinrichtung zur zeitlich hoch aufgelösten Kraft-Beschleunigungs-Messung beim Schlagversuch entwickelt. Diese wird anhand verschiedener Methoden auf ihre Eignung und die Messwerte auf Plausibilität geprüft. Darüber hinaus wird ein statistisches Verfahren zur Überprüfung auf ausreichende Stichprobengröße entwickelt und auf die durchgeführten Messungen angewendet. Anhand der unter statischer und schlagartiger Biegebeanspruchung ermittelten charakteristischen Größen, wird ein Klassenmodell zum Werkstoffvergleich und zur Werkstoffauswahl vorgeschlagen. Dieses umfasst integral die mechanische Leistungsfähigkeit der geprüften Holzwerkstoffe und ist für weitere Holzwerkstoffe anwendbar. Abschließend wird, aufbauend auf den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen, ein Konzept für die Bauteilprüfung unter Schlagbelastung für weiterführende Untersuchungen vorgeschlagen. / In the present work wood-based materials are compared under static bending load and impact bending load. Several thermal stress conditions are applied to selected materials, furthermore one relevant notch geometry is tested. The objective of these tests is to investigate the suitability of distinct wood materials for security relevant applications with the occurrence of impact loads. For this purpose the basics of instrumented impact testing and wood-based materials are acquired. The state of the technology and a comprehensive analysis of original studies are subsequently presented. On this basis an own impact pendulum was developed to allow force-acceleration measurement with high sample rates. The apparatus is validated by several methods and the achieved signals are tested for plausibility. A general approach of testing for adequate sample size is implemented and applied to the tested samples. Based on the characteristic values of the static bending and impact bending tests a classification model for material selection and comparison is proposed. The classification model is an integral approach for mechanical performance assessment of wood-based materials. In conclusion a method for impact testing of components (in future studies) is introduced.