Orientador: David Dequech Filho / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T01:15:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Santos_AndreLuisMotados_M.pdf: 615304 bytes, checksum: ffba5fa146fc3893fd42875dc9bd3336 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Esta dissertação tem como principal objetivo desenvolver uma família de modelos formais em que sejam consideradas restrição no balanço de pagamentos e fragilidade financeira, sendo esta tomada no sentido minskyano. O trabalho está organizado em cinco capítulos, levando em conta a apresentação e as últimas observações. O segundo capítulo tem por objetivo analisar os dois principais modelos de crescimento com inspiração minskyana, além de revisar aspectos principais da teoria de Minsky e tecer considerações sobre as hipóteses da instabilidade e da fragilidade em uma economia aberta. O terceiro capítulo trata dos principais modelos de crescimento com restrição no balanço de pagamentos, cuja expressão mais conhecida é a Lei de Thirlwall. No capítulo posterior, faz-se uma tentativa de empreender o tratamento de restrição no balanço de pagamentos e de fragilidade financeira num único modelo. Especificações diferentes para a variação do prêmio de risco permitem a construção de uma família de modelos, sendo que dois destes exigem resolução numérica e um é passível de interpretação geométrica (qualitativa). Este, no curto prazo, é capaz de descrever o mecanismo de stop-and-go, que economias com restrição ao crescimento dada pelo balanço de pagamentos enfrentam, além de expressar a fragilidade financeira na conta corrente. No longo prazo, novamente surge a Lei de Thirlwall, com o adendo de que importam também os valores atribuídos no longo prazo à taxa de juros e ao prêmio de risco para o resgate de dívida. Por outro lado, realizando simulações com os modelos que exigem resolução numérica, utilizando valores estimados ou observados para parte dos parâmetros e atribuindo valores a outros, os resultados não são favoráveis para a economia brasileira. Uma observação, porém, é que os modelos que utilizam métodos numéricos precisam ser modificados, a fim de serem utilizados ¿dados de entrada¿ com boa precisão / Abstract: The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a family of formal models in which balance-of-payments constrains and financial fragility have being considered, in the sense considered by Minsky. This work is organized in five chapters, considering the presentation and the last observations. The second chapter has as objective analyze the two main growth models based on Minsky inspiration, revising the main aspects of the Minsky¿s theory and to make considerations on the hypothesis of the instability and of the fragility in an open economy. The third chapter treats the most relevants growth models with constrains on balance-of-payments. In the next chapter, it is made an attempt of undertaking the constrains on balance-of-payments and the financial fragility, both two aspects treated in a single model. Different specifications of the risk prize variation allows the construction of a family of models, in which two of these demand numeric resolution and one is susceptible to geometric interpretation (qualitative). This model, in short-term, is capable to describe the stop-and-go mechanism, that economies with growth restriction caused by balance-of-payments faces, besides express the financial fragility in the current account. In long-term, Thirlwall¿s law appears again, with the addendum that also values attributed in long-term to interest rate and risk prize of debt rescue have importance. On the other hand, realizing simulations with the models that demand numeric resolution, using estimated values or observed as part of the parameters and attributing values to the others, the results are unfavorable for the Brazilian economy. An observation, however, it is that the models that use numeric methods need to be modified, in order to ¿input data¿ be used with good precision / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Background: Procedural content generation (PCG) has become an important subject as the demand for content in modern games has increased. Paradox Arctic is a game development studio that aims to be at the forefront of technological solutions and is therefore interested in furthering their knowledge in PCG. To this end, Paradox Arctic has expressed their interest in a collaborative effort to further explore the subject of procedural floor plan generation. Objective: The main goal of this work is to test whether a solution based on growth, subdivision or a combination thereof, can be used to procedurally generate believable and varied floor plans for game environments, while also conforming to predefined constraints. Method: A solution capable of generating floor plans with the use of growth, subdivision and a combination of both has been implemented and a survey testing the believability and variation of the generated layouts has been conducted. Results & Conclusions: While the results of the subdivision and combined solutions show that more work is necessary before the generated content can be considered believable, the growth based solution presents promising results in terms of believability when generating smaller to medium sized layouts. This believability does however come at the cost of variation. / Bakgrund: Procedural content generation (PCG) har blivit ett alltmer viktigt ämne allteftersom kravet på mängden innehåll i moderna spel har ökat. Paradox Arctic är en spelutvecklingsstudio vars målsättning är att ligga i teknologins framkant och de är därför intresserade av att vidareutveckla sin kompetens inom PCG. Av denna anledning har de uttryckt intresse för ett samarbete inom området “procedurell generering av planlösningar”. Syfte: Det huvudsakliga syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka huruvida lösningar baserade på att växa ytor, fördela ytor i mindre delar eller en kombination av dessa, kan användas för att skapa trovärdiga och varierade planlösningar för spelmiljöer, utan att bryta förutbestämda krav. Metod: En lösning som procedurellt genererar planlösningar genom att växa och/eller fördela dem har implementerats och en undersökning, med syftet att utvärdera trovärdigheten och variationen i de genererade planlösningarna, har utförts. Resultat & Slutsatser: Lösningen som baseras på fördelning av ytor och den kombinerade lösningen, visades av resultaten kräva ytterliggare arbete för att anses generera trovärdiga resultat. Lösningen som baseras på att växa ytor däremot, visade positiva trovärdighetsresultat när små och medelstora planlösningar genererades. Detta goda resultat uppstod dock på bekostnaden av variation mellan de genererade planlösningarna.

O objetivo central desta dissertação é analisar a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 80, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento com restrição externa. De acordo com os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, pode-se dizer que o crescimento econômico brasileiro de 1930-2004 foi aquele compatível com o equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos e que o câmbio real e fluxo de capitais têm um papel reduzido na obtenção do equilíbrio externo de longo prazo. Complementarmente, a perda de dinamismo do crescimento do PIB, a partir da década de 80, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio. Na década de 80, o equilíbrio externo tornou-se mais perverso devido aos componentes fluxo de capitais e câmbio real. Já nos anos 90, o Novo Modelo Econômico provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade da renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo, agora, ocorra a uma taxa de crescimento da renda interna mais baixa. A correlação entre crescimento, restrição externa e padrão de especialização da estrutura produtiva é uma discussão subjacente a todo o desenvolvimento do trabalho. / The main aim of this work is to analise the less dynamic economic growth of Brazil since the eighties, using the keynesian approach of Balance-of-Payment Constrained Growth. The results reveal that Brazilian growth between 1930 and 2004 was Balance-of-Payments Constrained and that, capital flows and real exchange rate had a moderate role to achive the balance of payment equilibrium. Furthermore, the less dynamic Brazilian economic growth since the eighties can be explained by a more perverse balance of payment equilibrium. In the eighties, capital flows and real exchange rate were responsible for this result. In the nineties, there was a structural change in the income elasticity of demand for imports, leading to a lower economic growth rate. The relations between growth, balance-of-payment constrains and structure of production are intrinsic in the development of this essay.

La nécessité de garantir l’intégrité des structures soudées pousse les industriels à augmenter leur domaine de compétences en matière de simulation numérique du soudage. La solidification est l’étape clé de ce procédé. Dès lors que la sélection des grains est reproduite correctement par les simulations, le comportement mécanique et la réponse aux contrôles non destructifs de l’assemblage peuvent être déduits. Ce travail cherche à définir les phénomènes thermométallurgiques décrivant les mécanismes de formation des microstructures du soudage. Ces mécanismes servent ensuite à valider l’usage d’un nouveau modèle de solidification qui réalise un post-traitement du calcul de thermique avec un automate cellulaire (modèle CAFE_WELD). Pour se faire, des expériences de soudage sont réalisées et caractérisées par EBSD. Ces analyses permettent de suivre la sélection des grains dans la soudure. L’effet de la refusion sur la sélection des grains est bien mis en évidence lors du soudage multi-passes. Ces caractérisations sont complétées par une analyse fine de la solidification du métal d’apport utilisé pour le soudage. Ces résultats permettent la mise en données du modèle nécessaire à la réalisation numérique des mêmes expériences de soudage. Les comparaisons entre les soudures vraies et numériques montrent que les phénomènes physiques intégrés au modèle ne sont pas suffisants pour reproduire les propriétés microstructurales générées par le soudage / Today, industrials want to upgrade their welding numerical simulation knowledge’s in order to be able to guarantee the welded structure integrity. Solidification is the main step of welding process. As soon as the grain selection in welded region is well reproduced by simulation software, mechanical properties and nondestructive test response can be deduced. This work tries to find thermometallurgical phenomena in order to describe the microstructures formation during welding. These mechanisms are used for validating a new solidification model which realizes a thermal calcul post-treatment with a cellular automaton (CAFE_WELD). In this aim, welding experiences were done and characterized with EBSD. These analyses allow following the grain selection into the weld. The refusion effect is clearly seen in the case of multi-pass weld. These results are completed by the fine solidification characterizations on filler metal employed in welding experiences. In this way, the model implementation can be done in order to do numerical simulation of the same experiences. The comparisons between real and numerical experiences show that the physical laws taken into account in CAFE_WELD model are not sufficient to reproduce the microstructural properties occurring in welding

O objetivo central desta dissertação é analisar a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 80, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento com restrição externa. De acordo com os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, pode-se dizer que o crescimento econômico brasileiro de 1930-2004 foi aquele compatível com o equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos e que o câmbio real e fluxo de capitais têm um papel reduzido na obtenção do equilíbrio externo de longo prazo. Complementarmente, a perda de dinamismo do crescimento do PIB, a partir da década de 80, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio. Na década de 80, o equilíbrio externo tornou-se mais perverso devido aos componentes fluxo de capitais e câmbio real. Já nos anos 90, o Novo Modelo Econômico provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade da renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo, agora, ocorra a uma taxa de crescimento da renda interna mais baixa. A correlação entre crescimento, restrição externa e padrão de especialização da estrutura produtiva é uma discussão subjacente a todo o desenvolvimento do trabalho. / The main aim of this work is to analise the less dynamic economic growth of Brazil since the eighties, using the keynesian approach of Balance-of-Payment Constrained Growth. The results reveal that Brazilian growth between 1930 and 2004 was Balance-of-Payments Constrained and that, capital flows and real exchange rate had a moderate role to achive the balance of payment equilibrium. Furthermore, the less dynamic Brazilian economic growth since the eighties can be explained by a more perverse balance of payment equilibrium. In the eighties, capital flows and real exchange rate were responsible for this result. In the nineties, there was a structural change in the income elasticity of demand for imports, leading to a lower economic growth rate. The relations between growth, balance-of-payment constrains and structure of production are intrinsic in the development of this essay.

La première partie de la thèse se propose de montrer commentl’analyse du changement structurel doit être abordée, pas seulement du point de vuedes conditions de l’offre mais également du point de vue de la demande. La prise encompte de ces deux aspects du processus de développement, en suivant lesanalyses de Harrod, Prebisch, Kaldor et Thirlwall, a permis d’identifier l'existenced'une contrainte structurelle à la croissance, résultant de la dynamique particulière ducommerce extérieur dans les pays les moins avancés. Les différents modèlesthéoriques qui formalisent cette restriction ont été analysés et, un test empirique aété effectué sur la Loi de Thirlwall dans cinq pays émergents (Brésil, Colombie,Singapour, Corée du Sud et la Malaisie).Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, l’accent a été mis sur l'analyse historique duprocessus de changement structurel en Corée du Sud et en Colombie, en vue decomprendre comment les deux pays ont lutté contre cette contrainte et commentcette dernière a influé sur leur croissance à long terme. / In the first part, the thesis discusses structural change, not only from offerconditions but also from the point of view of the demand parameters. Following theHarrod, Prebisch, Kaldor and Thirlwall analysis, we identified the existence of astructural constraint to growth, as a result of the particular foreign trade dynamic inthe less advanced economies (demand for imports vs. demand for exports). Weexamined the different theoretical models that formalize such restriction and, weelaborated a Thirlwall's Law empirical test in five emerging economies (Brazil,Colombia, Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia).In the second part, the thesis examines the structural change process in South Koreaand Colombia, in order to understand how these countries, have deal with thisrestriction and how it has impacted their long-term economic growth. To accomplishthis historical analysis, the key concepts of French regulation school areincorporated.