本文的研究重點主要是針對金融面，即在尋找一套較可靠的數據將兩岸區域性國際收支表編成季資料的形式，在此資料編成後，將進一步分析台商投資大陸，資金流失對於匯率的影響效果。 　　本論文以林鐘雄先生等人(1993)與葉玟琪(1993)之研究方法，應用其對台商到大陸投資之直接投資金額與短期資金流動項的估計方法，利用香港政府公布的統計資料編出季資料之兩岸區域性國際收支表之資本帳項目。至於經常帳中的商品貿易項、旅行支出項與移轉性支付項，除了兩岸的商品貿易項可由香港政府海關統計中的轉出口貿易項中得出外，其他項目仍然必須引用上述兩篇文獻中的估計方法，得出季資料之經常帳數額。利用以上數據編成季資料之兩岸區域性國際收支表。 　　由於兩岸商品貿易必須經過海關的程序，央行可充分掌握並反映於政府公佈的商品貿易項之中。而旅行支出、其他勞務、移轉性支付等，可透過結匯的程序，同時反應於國際收支表上，但是數額龐大之投資資金的流向，則是政府無法充分掌握的部分，此資金的外流造成台幣大量流失，因此必須推估出政府低估的金額。以此低估部份對本國貨幣供給作調整，以探討其對於匯率的影響效果。 　　由兩岸區域性國際收支表，得出1983年第1季至1993年第4季為止，台商在大陸的累積投資為198.19億美元，比較投審會公佈的數據36.04億美元，得出政府低估之台商至大陸投資的金額為162.15億美元，因為此投資資金的流失將導致準備貨幣減少756.44億台幣，使台幣產生的貶值效果。並由各季台商對大陸的投資金額，預估未來兩年台商將對大陸投資117.82億美元，且此資金的流失也將使得台幣貶值。

Orientador: David Dequech Filho / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T01:15:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Santos_AndreLuisMotados_M.pdf: 615304 bytes, checksum: ffba5fa146fc3893fd42875dc9bd3336 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Esta dissertação tem como principal objetivo desenvolver uma família de modelos formais em que sejam consideradas restrição no balanço de pagamentos e fragilidade financeira, sendo esta tomada no sentido minskyano. O trabalho está organizado em cinco capítulos, levando em conta a apresentação e as últimas observações. O segundo capítulo tem por objetivo analisar os dois principais modelos de crescimento com inspiração minskyana, além de revisar aspectos principais da teoria de Minsky e tecer considerações sobre as hipóteses da instabilidade e da fragilidade em uma economia aberta. O terceiro capítulo trata dos principais modelos de crescimento com restrição no balanço de pagamentos, cuja expressão mais conhecida é a Lei de Thirlwall. No capítulo posterior, faz-se uma tentativa de empreender o tratamento de restrição no balanço de pagamentos e de fragilidade financeira num único modelo. Especificações diferentes para a variação do prêmio de risco permitem a construção de uma família de modelos, sendo que dois destes exigem resolução numérica e um é passível de interpretação geométrica (qualitativa). Este, no curto prazo, é capaz de descrever o mecanismo de stop-and-go, que economias com restrição ao crescimento dada pelo balanço de pagamentos enfrentam, além de expressar a fragilidade financeira na conta corrente. No longo prazo, novamente surge a Lei de Thirlwall, com o adendo de que importam também os valores atribuídos no longo prazo à taxa de juros e ao prêmio de risco para o resgate de dívida. Por outro lado, realizando simulações com os modelos que exigem resolução numérica, utilizando valores estimados ou observados para parte dos parâmetros e atribuindo valores a outros, os resultados não são favoráveis para a economia brasileira. Uma observação, porém, é que os modelos que utilizam métodos numéricos precisam ser modificados, a fim de serem utilizados ¿dados de entrada¿ com boa precisão / Abstract: The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a family of formal models in which balance-of-payments constrains and financial fragility have being considered, in the sense considered by Minsky. This work is organized in five chapters, considering the presentation and the last observations. The second chapter has as objective analyze the two main growth models based on Minsky inspiration, revising the main aspects of the Minsky¿s theory and to make considerations on the hypothesis of the instability and of the fragility in an open economy. The third chapter treats the most relevants growth models with constrains on balance-of-payments. In the next chapter, it is made an attempt of undertaking the constrains on balance-of-payments and the financial fragility, both two aspects treated in a single model. Different specifications of the risk prize variation allows the construction of a family of models, in which two of these demand numeric resolution and one is susceptible to geometric interpretation (qualitative). This model, in short-term, is capable to describe the stop-and-go mechanism, that economies with growth restriction caused by balance-of-payments faces, besides express the financial fragility in the current account. In long-term, Thirlwall¿s law appears again, with the addendum that also values attributed in long-term to interest rate and risk prize of debt rescue have importance. On the other hand, realizing simulations with the models that demand numeric resolution, using estimated values or observed as part of the parameters and attributing values to the others, the results are unfavorable for the Brazilian economy. An observation, however, it is that the models that use numeric methods need to be modified, in order to ¿input data¿ be used with good precision / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

No abstract available. / Dissertation (M Com (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Economics / Unrestricted

International trade and competitiveness of domestic producers on the international market are very important factors for a further economic development. Country's trade structure determines its resistance to external shocks, which threaten domestic economy. Diversification gains a lot in importance lately. The existence of more industries, which are able to withstand tough competition with foreign firms is a cornerstone of economic development. Diversification is a key determinant for Russian economy due to a greater dependency on the export of raw materials, especially crude oil. These macroeconomic links can be shown by different econometric tools. Problems with excessive dependency on oil export can be detected by means of empiric analysis.

O objetivo central desta dissertação é analisar a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 80, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento com restrição externa. De acordo com os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, pode-se dizer que o crescimento econômico brasileiro de 1930-2004 foi aquele compatível com o equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos e que o câmbio real e fluxo de capitais têm um papel reduzido na obtenção do equilíbrio externo de longo prazo. Complementarmente, a perda de dinamismo do crescimento do PIB, a partir da década de 80, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio. Na década de 80, o equilíbrio externo tornou-se mais perverso devido aos componentes fluxo de capitais e câmbio real. Já nos anos 90, o Novo Modelo Econômico provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade da renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo, agora, ocorra a uma taxa de crescimento da renda interna mais baixa. A correlação entre crescimento, restrição externa e padrão de especialização da estrutura produtiva é uma discussão subjacente a todo o desenvolvimento do trabalho. / The main aim of this work is to analise the less dynamic economic growth of Brazil since the eighties, using the keynesian approach of Balance-of-Payment Constrained Growth. The results reveal that Brazilian growth between 1930 and 2004 was Balance-of-Payments Constrained and that, capital flows and real exchange rate had a moderate role to achive the balance of payment equilibrium. Furthermore, the less dynamic Brazilian economic growth since the eighties can be explained by a more perverse balance of payment equilibrium. In the eighties, capital flows and real exchange rate were responsible for this result. In the nineties, there was a structural change in the income elasticity of demand for imports, leading to a lower economic growth rate. The relations between growth, balance-of-payment constrains and structure of production are intrinsic in the development of this essay.

O objetivo central desta dissertação é analisar a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 80, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento com restrição externa. De acordo com os resultados obtidos neste trabalho, pode-se dizer que o crescimento econômico brasileiro de 1930-2004 foi aquele compatível com o equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos e que o câmbio real e fluxo de capitais têm um papel reduzido na obtenção do equilíbrio externo de longo prazo. Complementarmente, a perda de dinamismo do crescimento do PIB, a partir da década de 80, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio. Na década de 80, o equilíbrio externo tornou-se mais perverso devido aos componentes fluxo de capitais e câmbio real. Já nos anos 90, o Novo Modelo Econômico provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade da renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo, agora, ocorra a uma taxa de crescimento da renda interna mais baixa. A correlação entre crescimento, restrição externa e padrão de especialização da estrutura produtiva é uma discussão subjacente a todo o desenvolvimento do trabalho. / The main aim of this work is to analise the less dynamic economic growth of Brazil since the eighties, using the keynesian approach of Balance-of-Payment Constrained Growth. The results reveal that Brazilian growth between 1930 and 2004 was Balance-of-Payments Constrained and that, capital flows and real exchange rate had a moderate role to achive the balance of payment equilibrium. Furthermore, the less dynamic Brazilian economic growth since the eighties can be explained by a more perverse balance of payment equilibrium. In the eighties, capital flows and real exchange rate were responsible for this result. In the nineties, there was a structural change in the income elasticity of demand for imports, leading to a lower economic growth rate. The relations between growth, balance-of-payment constrains and structure of production are intrinsic in the development of this essay.

In the past ten years the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become a phenomenon, which is nowadays considered to be one of the major future perspectives of an economy. For many economists and politicians, the FDI is perceived as a saving instrument, which should help solve problems such as structure, regional discrepancies and most importantly a high unemployment rate especially under the conditions of global economic and financial crisis. The inflow of the FDI to host economy brings many positive effects that cannot be substituted. In fact, it is considered as a positive externality that must be paid. In order to attract the FDI in a country, the investment incentives are proposed and current incentives are being rebuilt. But attracting FDI at all costs can also be counterproductive. The intended aim of this thesis is to analyze positive and negativ effects of the FDI.

Notre recherche a consisté a nous faire une opinion raisonnée sur les interventions des Institutions de Bretton-Woods en République Démocratique de Congo, en nous appuyant sur une analyse de long terme de l’endettement extérieur du pays, et par conséquent à la mise en œuvre des programmes des stabilisations dans les années 70 et d’ajustement structurel depuis les années 80. Cette analyse nous a permis de mettre en lumière les contraintes économiques et sociales, internes et extérieures, auxquelles le pays a dû faire face. Loin de soulager cette économie rentière, les thérapies de choc préconisées par ces Institutions ont provoqué des coûts ou effets secondaires négatifs, délibérément cherché ou non sur d’autres variables (revenu global, niveau des prix, inflation/hyperinflation…). D’autre part, elles ont eu un coût social élevé, et ont contribuées lourdement à une détérioration de la répartition des revenus entre les diverses couches sociales du pays. L’échec des programmes d’ajustement structurel étant aujourd’hui reconnu, il était devenu donc impératif d’imaginer d’autres types d’approches moins superficielles, qui puissent intégrer non-seulement l’équilibre des variables macro et/ou micro-économiques, mais aussi méso-économique ; et donc l’accent doit être désormais mis sur l’amont (discussions des politiques) et sur l’aval (mis au point des projets ou programmes). C’est ainsi que furent mis en place, depuis le milieu des années 90, les mesures d’allègement ou d’annulation de la dette extérieure. L’austérité préconisée aujourd’hui, face à la crise de la dette dans la zone euro, semble ne pas tenir compte des conséquences que les politiques d’inspiration monétariste ont entraînées partout où elles ont été mises en œuvre, et particulièrement en Afrique. Ainsi, nous-nous demandons si le Libéraux ont-ils retenu les leçons des échecs des programmes d’ajustement structurel (PAS) dans les pays ajustés. Pour ce faire, nous-nous sommes permis de proposer quelques perspectives ou voies de sortie afin d’éviter de retomber dans le cycle de la dette que la RD Congo a connut. / Our research was to give us a reasoned opinion on the actions of the Bretton-Woods in DR Congo, relying on an analysis of long term external debt of the country, and therefore the implementation of programs stabilization in the 70s and structural adjustment since the 80s. This analysis allowed us to highlight the economic and social constraints, internal and external, that the country faced. Far from alleviating the rentier economy, shock therapies advocated by these institutions have caused costs or negative side effects, deliberately sought or not other variables (total income, inflation/hyperinflation…). On the other hand, they had a high social cost, and contributed heavily to the deterioration of income distribution among different social strata of the country. The failure of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) is regnized today, it has become imperative to imagine other types of less superficial approaches that can integrate not only the balance of macro variables and/or micro-economic, but also meso, and therefore the emphasis should now be placed on the upstream (policy discussion) and downstream (developed projects or programs). Thus were established since the mid 90s, the relief measures or cancellation of the external debt. The austerity advocated today, faced with the debt crisis in the euro area seems to ignore the impact that monetary policies have led to inspiration wherever they have been implemented, particularity in Africa. Thus, we ask whether we Liberals have learned from the failures of adjustment programs (SAPs) in the country originates, the former adjusted. To do this, we have allowed us to propose a few prospects or output channels to avoid failing into the cycle of debt that DR Congo has experienced so far.

This study focuses on foreign direct investment ("FDI") and its importance to the economy of South Africa. Recognising that FDI, notwithstanding the type, can contribute to economic growth and development, most countries including South Africa are constantly working to attract it, and hence its demand has become highly competitive. However, FDI does not go without some negative effects, such as conflicts between host and investor country, and the creation of damaging competition to local firms. These negative effects could be minimised if policies and strategies for the promotion and attraction of FDI is part of, and integrated into, general economic development and economic reform policies, and not seen in isolation. Although South Africa has implemented strategies to attract more FDI, a refinement of some of these policies is needed if the country is to be successful in this regard. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

金融危機是一種反常的金融現象，其共同的現象是資金外流、貨幣兌美元大幅貶值、股價重挫、經濟成長衰退、百業蕭條，這就是金融危機。而近代的金融危機趨勢不再只是單一區域的問題，就由這次1997下半年自泰國貨幣開始貶值的貨幣危機，經過一連串的蔓延效應後，影響所及不限於東南亞地區，更擴及俄羅斯、東歐、拉丁美洲等地，造成全球主要新興市場和新興工業國家的經濟遭受嚴重打擊，儼然已變成全球金融危機。 大部分過去經濟學者一開始均用傳統貨幣危機理論來分析金融危機，如Krugman在1979年提出標準的「第一代危機模型」，其中強調經濟基本面的持續惡化，導致維持固定匯率區間的制度遭到阻力，也因此產生了貶值的壓力，也就是由經濟的實質面去影響到金融面。但有鑑於這次亞洲金融危機並非以基本面因素來解釋即可令人信服，必須配合經濟趨勢的潮流，再加入金融面因素來探討以補基本面理論的不足，尤其再加入因金融恐慌的自我實現危機型態以及傳染蔓延因素，兩者互相配合以求能更完整分析為何這次金融危機能襲擊全球新興市場的原因。 此外，本文並描述各國因受金融危機衝擊所帶來的影響，以及各國政府採取何種因應措施，最後仍不敵國際投機客和市場預期心理下，紛紛請求IMF的支援。但IMF的援助貸款附帶有嚴苛條件，這些國家在實行IMF的政策後卻帶來經濟更加萎縮的事實。本文亦針對IMF的各項政策提出質疑與探討，並期研擬出更正確的政策方針。台灣在這次金融危機中雖相較受創較輕，但不容否認仍對台灣經濟社會帶來許多衝擊，本文亦分析台灣金融制度的問題，並且提出各項因應政策的比較分析。最後，匯總幾點本文研究結論與建議。 第一章 導論…………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與目的…………………………………………1 第二節 研究內容與架構…………………………………………3 第三節 研究方法與流程…………………………………………5 第二章 金融危機發生的原因………………………7 第一節 第一代危機模型…………………………………………8 第二節 基本面因素…………………………………………….10 第三節 金融面實質現象的主要論點………………………….25 第三章 金融危機的原因--系統性風險的探討……46 第一節 系統性風險下的危機………………………………….48 第二節 第二代危機模型……………………………………….52 第三節 傳染蔓延……………………………………………….58 第四章 金融危機對世界各國的衝擊………………61 第一節 危機發生前的總體經濟條件………………………….62 第二節 1997上半年危機前的苦難……………………………65 第三節 1997年貨幣危機的蔓延效應…………………………67 第四節 金融危機的因應政策………………………………….70 第五節 與1930年代經濟大蕭條比較…………………………75 第五章 金融危機對台灣的影響……………………77 第一節 基本面優勢…………………………………………….78 第二節 金融危機的影響與台灣金融問題…………………….81 第三節 台灣所採取的因應政策………………………………86 第四節 金融危機的教訓和經驗萃取………………………….92 第六章 結論…………………………………………94 第一節 本文主要發現………………………………………….95 第二節 本文政策性意涵……………………………………….96 第三節 研究建議……………………………………………….98