Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Nussbaum, Daniel A. ; Hildebrandt, Gregory G. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 29, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Maintenance, ground equipment, descriptive statistics, Table of Authorized Material Control Number. Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-71). Also available in print.

Accurate client budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for the highway construction projects. This decision-to-build point in a project's development is seen as the international standard for measuring any subsequent cost estimate inaccuracies involved (National Audit Office/Department of Transport, 1992; World Bank, 1994; Nijkamp and Ubbels, 1999), with accuracy being defined as the difference between the initial project estimate at the decision-to-build stage and the real, accounted project cost determined at the time of project completion. Expressed as a percentage of estimated cost, this is often termed cost escalation, cost overrun or cost growth, and occurs as a result of many factors, some of which are related to each other, but all are associated with forms of risks. The analysis of these risks is often a necessary step for the improvement of any given estimating system and can be used to diagnose trouble spots and to pinpoint areas where project estimating accuracy improvement might be obtained. In this research, highway projects in Queensland, Australia that have suffered significant cost overrun are analysed. The research seeks to address the gap in the knowledgebase as to why highway projects overrun their costs. It focuses on understanding how client projects budgets go wrong, when dealing with project risk. The foundation for this research is drawn from the post-mortem analysis of highway projects, each costing in excess of A$1m and whose final total expenditure exceeded budget by 10% or greater. The research identifies client risk variables which have contributed to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis and also expert elicitation, using nominal group technique, to establish groups of importance ranked client risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is then used to investigate any correlation of these risks, along with project attributes such as highway project type, indexed project cost, geographic location and project delivery method to the percentage of cost overrun. The research results indicates a correlation between the reciprocal of project budget size and percentage cost overrun that can be useful in clients determining more realistic decision-to build highway budget estimates when taking into account project size in relation to economy of scale.

Yes / The cost performance of a wide range of public sector infrastructure projects completed by a contractor are analysed and discussed. Change-orders after a contract to construct an asset was signed were, on average, found to contribute to a 23.75% increase in project costs. A positive association between an increase in change orders and the contractor’s margin were identified. Taxpayers pay for this additional cost, while those charged with constructing assets are rewarded with an increase in their margins. As the public sector embraces an era of digitisation, there is a need to improve the integration of design and construction activities and engender collaboration to ensure assets can be delivered cost effectively and future-proofed. The research paper provides empirical evidence for the public sector to re-consider the processes that are used to deliver their infrastructure assets so as to reduce the propensity for cost overruns and enable future-proofing to occur.

O gerenciamento de projetos é amplamente utilizado por organizações em âmbito mundial. Projetos de sistemas de informação, especificamente, auxiliam tais organizações a obterem sistemas a serem utilizados em suas atividades operacionais com alinhamento estratégico junto a seus objetivos, garantindo maior eficiência, alcance de melhores resultados e perenidade de sua atuação no mercado. O gerenciamento de escopo é uma das áreas de conhecimento do gerenciamento de projetos, responsável por garantir que todos os objetivos do projeto sejam conhecidos por todos os envolvidos, declarando o que será entregue e qual será o trabalho necessário para tal. O gerenciamento de escopo demanda alto nível de relacionamento entre equipes desenvolvedoras dos projetos e os clientes solicitantes. Tais clientes possuem expectativas e limitações quanto aos projetos solicitados, sendo necessário seu acompanhamento e alinhamento com a área executora para garantir que suas necessidades sejam atendidas de acordo com seu planejamento e expectativa. Acompanhar o desempenho em diversas dimensões dos projetos é importante para garantir que o resultado final esteja adequado às necessidades originais, tanto considerando-se o produto entregue pelo projeto quanto a execução do projeto em si. Duas das características mais relevantes para os projetos são seu custo e tempo de execução. Desempenhos adequados de custo e tempo dos projetos são importantes, considerando-se que as entregas são relevantes para um determinado tempo de término e com um determinado custo para sua realização. Nesta pesquisa foi realizada a avaliação da relação de processos de planejamento do gerenciamento de escopo com desempenhos de custo e tempo de projetos de SI de uma organização brasileira de grande porte do setor financeiro. Por meio da avaliação da aderência dos processos executados na instituição estudada às práticas indicadas pela literatura, foi possível identificar o nível de aderência da instituição quanto ao gerenciamento de escopo. Esta avaliação foi então relacionada aos desempenhos de custo e tempo, identificando possíveis influências. Considerando-se ainda a amostra de projetos, os gerentes de projetos que os conduziram responderam questionários indicando problemas ocorridos relacionados ao desempenho de custo e tempo dos projetos, possibilitando a identificação de impactos provenientes do gerenciamento de escopo. Por fim, foram aplicadas entrevistas aos clientes que solicitaram os projetos selecionados à área de tecnologia da informação da organização, com o objetivo de identificar causas e comportamentos das relações identificadas anteriormente. Foi possível concluir que a organização analisada possuía baixa aderência às práticas de gerenciamento de escopo. O processo de coleta de requisitos foi identificado como o principal processo relacionado aos desempenhos dos projetos e como o processo foco de maior atenção dos gerentes de projetos e clientes, com maior conhecimento de processos do modelo de desenvolvimento de sistemas de informação do que do gerenciamento de projetos. Nos projetos analisados o planejamento do gerenciamento de escopo não foi uma variável que teve um alto grau de associação com os desempenhos de custo e tempo, podendo explicá-lo adequadamente. Por outro lado, o gerenciamento de escopomostrou ser um fator de forte influência no desempenho dos projetos, pois ensejou mudanças na organização. / Project management is widely used by organizations worldwide. Information systems projects, specifically, assist such organizations get systems to be used in its operational activities with strategic alignment to your goals, ensuring greater efficiency, better results reach and perenniality of its market performance. The scope management is one of the project managements knowledge areas, responsible for ensuring that all project objectives are known by everyone involved, declaring what will be delivered and what will be the work required to such. Scope management demands high level of relationship between developers teams of the projects and the requesting clients. Such customers possess expectations and limitations with the requested projects, being necessary monitoring and alignment with the executing area to ensure that the needs will be met according with their planning and expectation. Track the performance in several dimensions of the projects is important to ensure that the end result is suited to unique needs, both considering the delivered product, as the course of entire project. Two of the most important characteristics of the projects are cost and runtime. Suitable cost performances and time of execution in the projects are important, considering that often such characteristics of projects are directly related to the expected results. In this research was held the assess the relationship the planning processes of scope management with performances of cost and time of SI projects of a Brazilian big organization in the financial sector. Through valuation of adherence of processes executed to good practices, was possible to identify the organization\'s maturity level about the scope management. This review was then related to costs and times of the projects, identifying possible influences. Considering still the selected projects for research, project managers responsible for these projects responded questionnaires indicating occurred problems related to performances of cost and time, enabling the identification of impacts coming from the scope management. Finally, interviews were applied to customers who requested the selected projects to the organization\'s information technology area, aiming to identify causes and behaviors of previously identified relations. It was possible to conclude that the analyzed organization possessed a low level of maturity about the management scope, having low adherence to good practices presented in the literature and followed by the organization. The process of requirements gathering was identified as the main proceedings related to the performance of the projects and as the process focus of more attention from projects managers and customers, with greater knowledge of information systems development methodology processes than project management processes. In the analyzed projects, scope management\'s planning was not a variable that had a high degree of association with the cost and time performances, explaining it properly. Moreover, scope management proved to be a strong influencing factor in the performance of projects, because gave rise changes in the organization.

O gerenciamento de projetos é amplamente utilizado por organizações em âmbito mundial. Projetos de sistemas de informação, especificamente, auxiliam tais organizações a obterem sistemas a serem utilizados em suas atividades operacionais com alinhamento estratégico junto a seus objetivos, garantindo maior eficiência, alcance de melhores resultados e perenidade de sua atuação no mercado. O gerenciamento de escopo é uma das áreas de conhecimento do gerenciamento de projetos, responsável por garantir que todos os objetivos do projeto sejam conhecidos por todos os envolvidos, declarando o que será entregue e qual será o trabalho necessário para tal. O gerenciamento de escopo demanda alto nível de relacionamento entre equipes desenvolvedoras dos projetos e os clientes solicitantes. Tais clientes possuem expectativas e limitações quanto aos projetos solicitados, sendo necessário seu acompanhamento e alinhamento com a área executora para garantir que suas necessidades sejam atendidas de acordo com seu planejamento e expectativa. Acompanhar o desempenho em diversas dimensões dos projetos é importante para garantir que o resultado final esteja adequado às necessidades originais, tanto considerando-se o produto entregue pelo projeto quanto a execução do projeto em si. Duas das características mais relevantes para os projetos são seu custo e tempo de execução. Desempenhos adequados de custo e tempo dos projetos são importantes, considerando-se que as entregas são relevantes para um determinado tempo de término e com um determinado custo para sua realização. Nesta pesquisa foi realizada a avaliação da relação de processos de planejamento do gerenciamento de escopo com desempenhos de custo e tempo de projetos de SI de uma organização brasileira de grande porte do setor financeiro. Por meio da avaliação da aderência dos processos executados na instituição estudada às práticas indicadas pela literatura, foi possível identificar o nível de aderência da instituição quanto ao gerenciamento de escopo. Esta avaliação foi então relacionada aos desempenhos de custo e tempo, identificando possíveis influências. Considerando-se ainda a amostra de projetos, os gerentes de projetos que os conduziram responderam questionários indicando problemas ocorridos relacionados ao desempenho de custo e tempo dos projetos, possibilitando a identificação de impactos provenientes do gerenciamento de escopo. Por fim, foram aplicadas entrevistas aos clientes que solicitaram os projetos selecionados à área de tecnologia da informação da organização, com o objetivo de identificar causas e comportamentos das relações identificadas anteriormente. Foi possível concluir que a organização analisada possuía baixa aderência às práticas de gerenciamento de escopo. O processo de coleta de requisitos foi identificado como o principal processo relacionado aos desempenhos dos projetos e como o processo foco de maior atenção dos gerentes de projetos e clientes, com maior conhecimento de processos do modelo de desenvolvimento de sistemas de informação do que do gerenciamento de projetos. Nos projetos analisados o planejamento do gerenciamento de escopo não foi uma variável que teve um alto grau de associação com os desempenhos de custo e tempo, podendo explicá-lo adequadamente. Por outro lado, o gerenciamento de escopomostrou ser um fator de forte influência no desempenho dos projetos, pois ensejou mudanças na organização. / Project management is widely used by organizations worldwide. Information systems projects, specifically, assist such organizations get systems to be used in its operational activities with strategic alignment to your goals, ensuring greater efficiency, better results reach and perenniality of its market performance. The scope management is one of the project managements knowledge areas, responsible for ensuring that all project objectives are known by everyone involved, declaring what will be delivered and what will be the work required to such. Scope management demands high level of relationship between developers teams of the projects and the requesting clients. Such customers possess expectations and limitations with the requested projects, being necessary monitoring and alignment with the executing area to ensure that the needs will be met according with their planning and expectation. Track the performance in several dimensions of the projects is important to ensure that the end result is suited to unique needs, both considering the delivered product, as the course of entire project. Two of the most important characteristics of the projects are cost and runtime. Suitable cost performances and time of execution in the projects are important, considering that often such characteristics of projects are directly related to the expected results. In this research was held the assess the relationship the planning processes of scope management with performances of cost and time of SI projects of a Brazilian big organization in the financial sector. Through valuation of adherence of processes executed to good practices, was possible to identify the organization\'s maturity level about the scope management. This review was then related to costs and times of the projects, identifying possible influences. Considering still the selected projects for research, project managers responsible for these projects responded questionnaires indicating occurred problems related to performances of cost and time, enabling the identification of impacts coming from the scope management. Finally, interviews were applied to customers who requested the selected projects to the organization\'s information technology area, aiming to identify causes and behaviors of previously identified relations. It was possible to conclude that the analyzed organization possessed a low level of maturity about the management scope, having low adherence to good practices presented in the literature and followed by the organization. The process of requirements gathering was identified as the main proceedings related to the performance of the projects and as the process focus of more attention from projects managers and customers, with greater knowledge of information systems development methodology processes than project management processes. In the analyzed projects, scope management\'s planning was not a variable that had a high degree of association with the cost and time performances, explaining it properly. Moreover, scope management proved to be a strong influencing factor in the performance of projects, because gave rise changes in the organization.

The popularity of Amazon's EC2 cloud platform has increased in commercial and scientific high-performance computing (HPC) applications domain in recent years. However, many HPC users consider dedicated high-performance clusters, typically found in large compute centers such as those in national laboratories, to be far superior to EC2 because of significant communication overhead of the latter. We find this view to be quite narrow and the proper metrics for comparing high-performance clusters to EC2 is turnaround time and cost. In this work, we first compare the HPC-grade EC2 cluster to top-of-the-line HPC clusters based on turnaround time and total cost of execution. When measuring turnaround time, we include expected queue wait time on HPC clusters. Our results show that although as expected, standard HPC clusters are superior in raw performance, they suffer from potentially significant queue wait times. We show that EC2 clusters may produce better turnaround times due to typically lower wait queue times. To estimate cost, we developed a pricing model---relative to EC2's node-hour prices---to set node-hour prices for (currently free) HPC clusters. We observe that the cost-effectiveness of running an application on a cluster depends on raw performance and application scalability. However, despite the potentially lower queue wait and turnaround times, the primary barrier to using clouds for many HPC users is the cost. Amazon EC2 provides a fixed-cost option (called on-demand) and a variable-cost, auction-based option (called the spot market). The spot market trades lower cost for potential interruptions that necessitate checkpointing; if the market price exceeds the bid price, a node is taken away from the user without warning. We explore techniques to maximize performance per dollar given a time constraint within which an application must complete. Specifically, we design and implement multiple techniques to reduce expected cost by exploiting redundancy in the EC2 spot market. We then design an adaptive algorithm that selects a scheduling algorithm and determines the bid price. We show that our adaptive algorithm executes programs up to 7x cheaper than using the on-demand market and up to 44% cheaper than the best non-redundant, spot-market algorithm. Finally, we extend our adaptive algorithm to exploit several opportunities for cost-savings on the EC2 spot market. First, we incorporate application scalability characteristics into our adaptive policy. We show that the adaptive algorithm informed with scalability characteristics of applications achieves up to 56% cost-savings compared to the expected cost for the base adaptive algorithm run at a fixed, user-defined scale. Second, we demonstrate potential for obtaining considerable free computation time on the spot market enabled by its hour-boundary pricing model.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T17:11:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_DIEGO AMORIM DOS SANTOS.pdf: 423252 bytes, checksum: efa5c399c909c9183204861f32d89af4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-25 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / ABSTRACT This study was conducted to evaluate the productive performance of crossbred Boer goats finished in feedlots, fed diets containing increasing levels of crude glycerin (0, 4, 8 and 12%) replacing corn bran in the concentrate portion of the diet. Two experiments were conducted. The first trial intended to determine the average daily gain (ADG), dry matter intake (DM) and nutrients (CP, NDF, EE ) and alimental behavior, which is evaluated for time spent with intake, rumination and leisure time. Twenty crossbred Boer goats with an average initial weight of 17.06 + 2.16 kg were used in a randomized complete block design with four treatments and five replications. The animals were housed in individual pens for a period of 65 days, 14 day for adaptation and 51 days for data collection. For the second experiment (digestibility trial) four castrated male goats were used, with an average weight of 22.45 + 3.06 kg, (with pattern similar to the animals used on the feedlot trial), in a Latin Square Design (4 treatments x 4 animals x 4 collection periods), to determine the digestibility of DM, CP, NDF and EE. The animals were housed in metabolic cages for a period of 40 days with four collection periods (seven days for adaptation and three for data collection). On the first trial, the addition of crude glycerin did not affect (P>0.05) the ADG between treatments, with mean values of 98.3 + 27g, as well as dry matter (591 + 96g) and other nutrients intake were not affected as well. The time spent on intake and chewing increased along with the levels of crude glycerin in diets, while leisure time, even without statistical difference, decreased (16%) compared to control treatment. There was no significant difference (P>0.05) of the treatments on the time spent ruminating with an average value of 365.6 + 73.4 minutes/day, and the digestibility of DM, CP and NDF were not affected as well. However there was a quadratic effect for the digestibility of EE. It is recommended to include in the content of 12% crude glycerin without damage to the productive performance, intake and digestibility of evaluated nutrients. / Objetivou-se com o presente trabalho avaliar o desempenho produtivo de caprinos mestiços Boer terminados em confinamento, alimentados com dietas contendo teores crescentes de glicerina bruta (0, 4, 8 e 12%) em substituição ao milho em grão triturado no concentrado. Foram realizados dois experimentos; o primeiro para determinação do ganho de peso diário (GPD), do consumo de matéria seca (MS) e nutrientes (PB, FDN, EE) e do comportamento ingestivo dos animais, sendo este avaliado quanto ao tempo despendido com ingestão, ruminação e ócio. Utilizou-se 20 caprinos ¾ Boer, machos, castrados com peso inicial médio de 17,06 + 2,16 kg em um delineamento em blocos completos casualizados, com quatro tratamentos e cinco repetições. Os animais foram confinados em baias individuais por um período de 65 dias, sendo 14 para adaptação e 51 para coleta de dados. Para o segundo experimento (ensaio de digestibilidade) foram utilizados quatro caprinos machos, castrados, com peso médio de 22,45 + 3,06 kg, com padrão racial semelhante aos animais utilizados no confinamento, em um delineamento em quadrado latino (4 tratamentos x 4 animais x 4 períodos), para determinação da digestibilidade da MS, PB, FDN e EE. Os animais foram alojados em gaiolas metabólicas durante um período de 40 dias com quatro períodos de coleta (sete dias de adaptação e três para coleta dos dados). No experimento de desempenho a adição de glicerina bruta não interferiu (P>0,05) no GPD entre os tratamentos, com valores médios de 98,3 + 27g, assim como no consumo de matéria seca (591 + 96g) e outros nutrientes. O tempo de ingestão e mastigação aumentou com o incremento de glicerina bruta nas dietas, enquanto que o tempo de ócio, mesmo sem diferença estatística, decresceu (16%) em relação ao tratamento controle. Não houve diferença significativa (P>0,05) dos tratamentos sobre o tempo gasto na ruminação com valor médio de 365,6 + 73,4 minutos/dia, bem como para a digestibilidade da MS, PB e FDN, contudo houve efeito quadrático para a digestibilidade do EE. Recomenda-se a inclusão no teor de 12% de glicerina bruta em dietas para caprinos em terminação, sem prejuízos para o desempenho produtivo, consumo e digestibilidade dos nutrientes avaliados.

Poor cost performance of construction projects has been a major concern for both contractors and clients. The effective management of risk is thus critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. Furthermore, the construction industry has witnessed significant changes particularly in procurement methods with clients allocating greater risks to contractors. Evidence shows that there is a gap between existing risk management techniques and tools, mainly built on normative statistical decision theory, and their practical application by construction contractors. The main reason behind the lack of use is that risk decision making within construction organisations is heavily based upon experience, intuition and judgement and not on mathematical models. This thesis presents a model for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance of construction projects. The model has been developed using behavioural decision approach, fuzzy logic technology, and Artificial Intelligence technology. The methodology adopted to conduct the research involved a thorough literature survey on risk management, informal and formal discussions with construction practitioners to assess the extent of the problem, a questionnaire survey to evaluate the importance of global risk factors and, finally, repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This research groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The research identified the following groups of global risk factors as having significant impact on cost performance: estimator related, project related, fraudulent practices related, competition related, construction related, economy related and political related factors. The model was tested for validity through a panel of validators (experts) and crosssectional cases studies, and the general conclusion was that it could provide valuable assistance in the management of global risk factors since it is effective, efficient, flexible and user-friendly. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools.

La presente tesis tiene como objetivo ser guía en el análisis e interpretación de las causas de los Costos de No Calidad para los futuros proyectos del sector construcción, tomando como fuente de información el proyecto de viviendas multifamiliares: “Nuevo Alcázar Condominio”, ubicada en el distrito del Rímac en la ciudad de Lima. La tesis se desarrolló de acuerdo a la información de la Primera Etapa comprendida por los Edificios 17, 18 y 19; las principales fuentes de información fueron los registros de las No Conformidades en el proceso de ejecución de la obra, la data del programa S10 que nos fue de ayuda para obtener los costos reales acumulados, la data del programa PLANOK, del cual se obtuvo el registro de observaciones de los propietarios desde la puesta en servicio del proyecto, el reporte operativo de costos acumulado a Agosto 2015, el registro de adicionales y control de cambios durante la ejecución del proyecto, estas herramientas fueron piezas claves para el análisis de esta investigación. Para el caso estudiado, se concluyó del objetivo general que los costos de no calidad influyen en el margen de utilidad cuando se realiza un presupuesto sincerado, de los objetivos específicos se concluye que la calidad se debe desarrollar desde el diseño del proyecto y no solo durante la etapa de ejecución, ya que los errores o incompatibilizaciones en los planos generan adicionales de obra y se analizaron que las partidas de control que representaron una mayor ganancia fueron las que obtuvieron mayores observaciones en la puesta en servicio del proyecto. The objective of this investigation is to be a guide in the analysis and interpretation of the causes of non-quality costs for future projects in the construction sector, using as information the project: “Nuevo Alcázar Condominio", located in the district of Rimac in Lima. The investigation was developed according to information of the first phase comprised of Buildings 17, 18 and 19; the main sources of information were records of nonconformity in the process of execution of the project, the data of the S10 program that was helpful to us for actual costs accumulated, dates from PLANOK program, which recording observations of the owners was obtained from the commissioning of the project, operating costs accumulated report in August 2015, additional registration and change control during project implementation, these were important tools for the analysis of this research. For the case study, it was concluded from general object that the costs of not quality affect the profit margin when the budget is exact, the specific objectives that quality is important from the design of the project and not only in the implementation phase, so that the fault on drawings generate additional work and we analyzed the control items accounted for a larger gain were the major observations obtained in the service of the project.

Project control is essential to ensure that the investment on a project is providing the intended benefits and is valuable to the customers. Previous methods offer project performance monitoring and forecasting tools, but they lack accuracy and the associated techniques omit the project financial risk (any unplanned event that has an impact on schedule and budget); the main factor of project failure. Poor project execution, and particularly failure to control and accurately forecast the project performance, may lead to increased costs, upset customers and eventually loss of market share. These gaps have been filled in this study by the development of novel models that use statistical analysis of the previous project performance, including risk evaluation techniques. The proposed models succeeded in providing remarkably improved forecasts in three project dimensions: duration, cost and resources. The robustness of the models has been verified by testing them on real projects. The results show superiority in terms of accuracy and easy application compared to any existing method, proving that the risk inclusion provides improvement compared to previous studies. The most important features of the models are: risk-based adjustment of the forecasted values, periodic and completion forecasts, statistical processing and holistic approach. The greatest advancements have been made in the cost forecast, for which the risk adjustment inclusion is examined for the first time. The resources (man-hours) forecast is another pioneer element of the proposed models. All the above provide a complete image of the project status and paint the picture of future performance. The models results are fed in a Decision Support System, which highlights the overperforming and underperforming areas of the project. This confirms the proposition that the model results can be used to initiate restorative action. The contribution of this study to the project management field is easy-to-use and accurate models, which include the financial risk and facilitate the project manager’s decisions and actions. Anticipation of the project performance, by considering the risk, can result to significant time and cost savings, crucial for project success.