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Title: Disruption of movement or cohesion of groups through individuals Author: Jiří Vejmola Department: Department of Theoretical Computer Science and Mathematical Logic Supervisor of the master thesis: Mgr. Roman Neruda, CSc., Institute of Computer Science of the ASCR, v. v. i. Abstract: Just a few of informed and like-minded individuals, guides, are needed to lead otherwise naive group. We look at some of the possible changes that can be caused by the presence of another informed individual with different intentions, an intruder. It is implied that he cannot cause anything significant under normal circumstances. To counter that and to increase his chances of success we intruduce a new parameter - credibility. We explore how it changes the overall behaviour. We show that by applying it to the intruder his influence over others increases. This in turn makes naive individuals more willing to follow him. We show that if the right conditions are met he can eventually become the one who leads the group. Keywords: multi-agent system, swarm intelligence, emergence, credibility

The emergence of online information-seekers harnessing the aggregated experiences of others to evaluate online information has coincided with deceptive entities exploiting this tool to bias judgments. One method through which deceit about user-generated content can occur is through single entities impersonating multiple, independent content providers to saturate content samples. Two studies are introduced to explore how idiosyncratic indicators, features co-occurring between content messages that implicate a higher probability of deceit, can be used as a criterion to identify content that is not independently authored. In Study 1, analyses of a pairwise comparison of hypothetical reviews revealed that ratings of content independence were significantly lower when review pairs co-occurred in the attributes, text, and usernames compared to being heterogenous. In a high-fidelity experiment, Study 2 assessed if the effect of idiosyncratic indicators on independence is increased in the presence of multiple indicators, if it is attenuated with a high number of reviews, and if it impacts factors relevant to the choice selection process. As expected, the findings of Study 1 were replicated in addition to further revealing that the presence of multiple idiosyncratic cues yielded lower independence ratings. An interaction effect with idiosyncratic indicators and high review number was observed such that the effect of the former on independence was attenuated when there were a high number of reviews to obscure the presence of these indicators.

Title: Robot or Human? The Marketing Phenomenon of Virtual Influencers: A Case Study About Virtual Influencers’ Parasocial Interaction on Instagram. Purpose: As it is already established that human influencers can create parasocial interaction with their followers, the purpose of this study is to explore parasocial interaction with virtual influencers through their perceived source credibility. Research Questions: How are consumers responding to interaction with virtual influencers on Instagram? What factors in source credibility facilitate parasocial interaction between the actors?  Method: This case study has conducted semi-structured interviews with Swedish consumers along with information collected on two virtual fashion influencers: LilMiquela and Noonoouri. Before the interviews, a pretest in interacting with the virtual influencers on Instagram was conducted. Afterwards, the transcripts have been analyzed in accordance to the presented operationalization and led to subcategories found to be relevant for the facilitation of PSI.  Conclusion: It was shown that consumers responded better to interaction with humanlike virtual influencers regarding their appearance and lifelike activities. Although, consumers also perceive their appearance and behavior as unpleasant and unrealistic when being too close to reality. Their perceived humanness affected the level of attractiveness, similarity and trustworthiness. As such, these are the factors that affect the degree of source credibility and thus facilitate PSI with them. Virtual influencers stand in front of a problem with both authenticity and transparency, as they are created and owned by companies. This has implications for their overall attractiveness, as authenticity is shown to be important for consumers on Instagram. However, lack of authenticity and transparency mostly implicates the trustworthiness of them, as the communicator is unknown. Virtual influencers are perceived to have a superior ability of being available online and personal in interaction. Therefore, it is shown to have a positive effect on the facilitation of PSI as it increases their attractiveness. However, it also indicates that they are controlled by a company which has a negative effect as it decreases the trustworthiness of them. To conclude, consumers’ virtual robot acceptance is proposed to be a precursor for developing PSI with virtual influencers in conjunction with the three factors in source credibility: trustworthiness, attractiveness and similarity.

Problem/Purpose: Internet celebrities have shown huge commercial value by operating their E-commerce in the Chinese market. This article aims to research How Chinese internet celebrity influences consumers’ attitude to purchase on E-commerce. Method: The Primary data is collected by semi-structured interviews with consumers who followed the internet celebrity and bought products from her online stores. Meanwhile, word frequency analysis of posted context and comments on the internet is proceeded to conduct secondary data to support findings. Findings: Our findings show that the traditional source attractiveness, expertise, and involvement of celebrity are important to impact on the consumers’ attitude and drive to purchase behavior. However, source trustworthiness is not essential, and the perceived trustworthiness is limited in specialized fields (e.g. fashion) and is hard extend to other areas (e.g. cosmetics). Furthermore, perceived authenticity will reinforce trustworthiness and intimacy, and perceived interconnectedness will result in frequent and regular buying habit. Implementation: This research can serve to internet celebrities who are running or intend to start their E-commerce in China. Moreover, it is hoped this study of internet celebrity Ecommerce in China can serve for future comparative studies of internet celebrity globally.

Background: Through digitalization, it has now allowed people to be more linked through different social media platforms and has led to an increase in the use of these platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. Compared to other social media, Instagram has the highest level of involvement through time spent on the app. Influencer marketing has increased with the numbers 325% in Google searches within the year 2017. Companies use influencer marketing as a tool where the firm is collaborating with influencers. Next year, approximately two-thirds of the marketing departments will increase their budget for influencer marketing, so the trend will probably continue in the future.   Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to increase knowledge and understanding about the relationship influencers and followers have with each other and the effects an influencers Instagram profile has on credibility. The authors in the introduction give an insight into the background of current research and information about social media, most specifically Instagram but also about influencers with regards to the credibility of their Instagram profiles. After a gap in the literature was identified, the authors then go on to formulate a research question which is used to guide the direction of the study.   Method: The research method used to answer this question was qualitative, as the authors deemed it to be most suitable for this type of study. After conducting semi-structured interviews with 17 individuals belonging to the millennial generation cohort, who had Instagram and more importantly followed influencers, interesting perspectives around the effect's sponsorship posts had on influencer credibility in the eyes of the followers, were discovered. The results gathered from the interviews were later compared with Ohanian's model of source credibility and Hovland’s model of attribution of credibility, gathered from the frame of reference. The findings from the data collection and analysis were later used to answer the research question.   Conclusion: The influencer-follower relationship has a greater impact on an influencer’s credibility, than what research had portrayed in the existing literature. The strength of the influencer-follower relationship has an impact on whether an influencers Instagram profile is seen as credible or not. The way in which an influencer presents a sponsorship or collaboration on their Instagram profile, had the greatest effect regarding the influencer’s credibility.

La pratique de l’examen psychologique de l’enfant et de l’adolescent alléguant, au stade de l’enquête préliminaire (dans le cadre de la procédure pénale), des violences sexuelles subies constitue le point de départ de cette étude. Elle pose la question du positionnement à la fois procédural, clinique et méthodologique de l’expert psychologue mais également celle de la crédibilité. Laissant de côté d’éventuels facteurs d’influence et ce que les allégations ne seraient pas ou insuffisamment par rapport à un discours traumatique-type, nous nous sommes intéressés à ce qu’elles seraient, pourraient révéler, illustreraient du mode de fonctionnement psychique du sujet alléguant. A partir d’une revue de la littérature, nous avons envisagé une clinique de l’allégation reposant sur un modèle pluridimensionnel qui intègre tout à la fois les dimensions cognitivo-développementale, psychogénétique, tendancielle, interrelationnelle, événementielle, procédurale, syndromique, sémiologique et intrapsychique. Ce modèle, plaçant le processus d’allégation (renvoyant ou non à une expérience traumatique subie dans le réel) au coeur d’une analyse multidimensionnelle et plurifactorielle, envisage celle-ci sur un registre dynamique incluant les apports validés dans chacun des champs auxquels les dimensions ci-dessus renvoient. A partir d’examens psychologiques réels et d’une méthodologie hypothético-déductive, nous avons développé un outil appelé table d’analyse séquentielle psycho-victimologique visant à permettre un appariement d’éléments appartenant à des dimensions distinctes, à mettre en évidence des hypothèses et à les tester. / The practice of psychological examination - in the context of a criminal procedure - of the child or teenager who claims to have been a victim of sexual violence, is at the start of the present study. It raises the question of the standpoint – procedural, clinical and methodological – of the expert psychologist, as well as that of credibility. Leaving aside possible factors of influence and what the allegations might not be or be insufficiently in relation to a typical traumatic talk, we have focused our attention on what they might be or might reveal and illustrate about the psychological functioning of the author of the claims. Starting from a survey of the available literature, we have envisaged a clinical view of the allegation, based on a multidimensional model which encompasses all at once the cognitive-developmental, psycho-genetic, underlying, interrelational, circumstantial, procedural, syndromic, semiological and intrapsychic dimensions. Such model, which places the allegation process (referring or not to a traumatic experience undergone in reality) at the heart of a multidimensional and multifactorial analysis, considers the said analysis on a dynamic register, including the acquisitions validated in each of the fields referred to by the abovementioned dimensions. Starting from real psychological examinations and using a hypothetic-deductive approach, we have developed a tool which we call a sequential psycho-victimological analysis table, aiming at allowing the matching of elements belonging to distinct dimensions, to highlight and test hypotheses.

The diploma thesis deals with psychological aspects of interrogation. The aim of the thesis is to describe general psychological aspects of interrogation, contained in scientific publications in comparison to practical knowledge, gathered by experienced police detectives. The thesis covers both psychological aspects of interrogated person as well as the interrogator. The thesis is comprised of four parts, each divided into chapters and subchapters. In the first part, the focus of the thesis is on testimony, its creation and above all verifying its credibility, as the primary aim of an interrogation is to achieve a complete and credible testimony. In the thesis, there are mentioned psychological methods how to achieve such a testimony, and at the same time how to avoid psychological errors of the investigator. The core of the thesis is dedicated to the topic of psychology of interrogation. This part is divided into three chapters; first chapter describes perception level of both interrogator and interrogated, the second covers the mutual interaction of both parties, and the third one their mutual communication. The communication level is a major part of psychology of interrogation, as the interrogated person expresses themselves not only by spoken word, but also by nonverbal cues such as facial...

A presente tese é uma pesquisa composta de duas partes. A primeira e principal é constituída do ensaio em economia aplicada denominado “Emprego e investimentos no Polo Naval de Rio Grande”. O estudo analisa a atividade econômica e o emprego no setor naval dos municípios do Polo Naval de Rio Grande, correspondente aos investimentos de produção nos estaleiros, e estima seus efeitos sobre o emprego agregado desses municípios. Documenta diversas características e fatos do emprego naquele setor e procede a uma investigação minuciosa da sua sazonalidade. Importantes correlações deste com o de outros setores selecionados também foram identificadas. Na análise do impacto sobre o emprego agregado, utiliza-se uma especificação diferenciada do modelo diff-in-diff e estima-se um efeito médio ponderado significativo, heterogêneo no tempo e entre os municípios. Já a segunda parte da tese, complementar à primeira, é composta de dois ensaios: um em teoria econômica e outro em economia aplicada. Ambos estão relacionados ao conceito e medida de credibilidade. Em economia monetária o termo credibilidade tem sido interpretado com distintos significados e predicados. Como consequência, as confusões e perda de eficiência acabam retardando o avanço teórico e empírico de questões importantes. O ensaio “Credibilidade: o conceito” busca organizar a interpretação e a medida de credibilidade, principalmente no contexto monetário. Nele propõe-se um conceito abrangente, baseado na linguagem natural e que aninha diversas interpretações, formalizando-o matematicamente na estrutura da Teoria da Probabilidade, na qual também construi-se a medida. No outro ensaio, denominado “Credibilidade: aplicação empírica”, realiza-se uma aplicação do conceito e da medida de credibilidade construídos no anterior. Utilizando dados de um survey de expectativas de inflação (pontuais e probabilísticas) para a economia dos Estados Unidos, estima-se diversas credibilidades para variados horizontes temporais e focos. Emprega-se métodos não-paramétricos para as estimações (spline e kernel), com especificações adaptadas à particularidade dos dados. / The present thesis is a research composed of two parts. The first and main consists of the essay in applied economy called “Emprego e investimentos no Polo Naval de Rio Grande”. The study analyzes the employment in the naval sector of the Rio Grande Naval Pole municipalities, correspondent to the production investments in the shipyards, and estimates their effects on the aggregate employment of these municipalities. It documents various characteristics and facts of employment in that sector and proceeds to a thorough investigation of its seasonality. Moreover, important correlations between this and other selected sectors were identified. In the analysis of impact on aggregate employment we used a differentiated specification of the model diff-in-diff, and estimated a weighted average effect, which is heterogeneous in time and between municipalities. Now, the second part of the thesis, complementary to the first one, is composed of two essays: one in economic theory and the other in applied economics. Both are related to the concept and measure of credibility. In monetary economics the term credibility has been interpreted with different meanings and predicates. Consequently, the confusions and loss of efficiency slow down the theoretical and empirical advancement of important issues. The essay “Credibilidade: o conceito” seeks to organize the interpretation and measurement of credibility, especially in the monetary context. In that essay are proposed a comprehensive concept, based on natural language and that nestles diverse interpretations, formalizing it mathematically in the framework of Probability Theory, in which the measure was also constructed. In the other essay, called “Credibilidade: aplicação empírica”, we apply the concept and measure of credibility built in the previous one. Using data from a survey of inflation expectations (both point and probabilistic) for the US economy, we estimate various credibilities for various time horizons and focus. We use non-parametric methods (spline and kernel) to estimate, with specifications adapted to the particularity of the data.

O distanciamento entre as expectativas públicas e as metas anunciadas pelos formuladores de política econômica gera problemas para a condução das metas ao longo do tempo. Nesse contexto, este trabalho estabelece um modelo prescritivo acerca das variáveis que melhor explicam a credibilidade da política monetária no Brasil durante o período de implementação do regime de metas inflacionárias e nos anos subsequentes (2002-2016). Estudos anteriores nesse campo descreveram somente o comportamento da confiança pública sobre os resultados da política, mas não a atrelaram a variáveis do ambiente macroeconômico. Esse trabalho busca explorar fatores que afetam a credibilidade por parte do público, inclusive a reputação do presidente do Banco Central do Brasil, das metas anunciadas. / The gap between public expectations and targets announced by policymakers creates problems for the achievement of goals over time. In this context, this paper establishes a prescriptive model about the variables that best explain the credibility of monetary policy in Brazil during the period of implementation of the inflation targeting regime and in subsequent years (2002-2016). Previous studies in this field have described only the behavior of public confidence over policy outcomes, but have not linked it to variables in the macroeconomic environment. This paper aims to explore factors that would affect the public\'s credibility, including the reputation of the president of the Central Bank of Brazil, of the announced goals.