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Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Kevin Gwinner / Companies must weigh the trade-offs of support strategies and choose between the effectiveness of meeting customer expectations and the cost of implementing product support tools and services. These support strategies can be critical to the success of a company and therefore, must provide efficient problem resolution in order to meet the satisfaction of the customer and retailer. This thesis reviews survey data collected from a large agricultural equipment company’s retailers on their satisfaction of product support tools and services provided by the company, and how the retailers utilize these product support tools and services when attempting to resolve a product issue. This evaluation of a company’s product support strategy leads to the identification of potential solutions to help maximize the efficiency of the problem resolution process, as well as minimize the opportunity costs and financial costs of product support sources.

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This dissertation consists of three economic experiments that investigate behavioral differences in decision making process under risk (uncertainty with known probabilities) and under ambiguity (uncertainty with unknown probabilities). The first and the second chapters present two experiments with subjects choosing between lotteries involving risky and ambiguous urns. Decisions are made in conjunction with a sequence of random draws with replacement, allowing us to track the beliefs of the agents at different moments in time. In the first chapter, we develop and estimate a model of subjective belief updating allowing for base rate fallacy. We find that when updating under ambiguity subjects significantly underweight the new signal, while when updating under compound risk subjects are essentially Bayesian. In the second chapter, we estimate a popular multiple priors model for decision making under ambiguity in dynamic environments. Our estimates suggest a difference in the confidence with which subjects discard the unlikely priors depending on whether an ambiguous urn was presented first or second. Specifically, when an ambiguous urn is presented first, subjects consider more priors during the learning process as compared to when a compound urn is presented first. We also find significant evidence against the hypothesis that human subjects consider only Dirac priors. In the third chapter, we examine the behavior of security dealers in an environment where the level of asymmetric information is viewed as either risk, compound risk, or ambiguity. Using two measures of market liquidity, resiliency and price, we find that duopoly dealer markets are both more resilient to uncertainty about asymmetric information as well as having higher dealer bids compared with monopoly dealer markets for all three uncertainty scenarios. Additionally, we find differences in dealer bidding behavior in duopoly setting depending on whether the uncertainty about informed trading is presented as risk, compound risk, or ambiguity. / text

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匯率預測方法甚多，從簡易的方法論到神經網絡預測法，乃至於基因演算法、、無一不自成格局。然而，由於影響匯率變動的因素太多，精確的預測模型往往趕不上匯率的變動速度。一本交易員對匯率預測的快速趨勢要求，採用EViews直線迴歸分析，簡易的將數據整理後載入預測模型，實證匯率可以快速測得準確的趨勢，藉此以規避市場匯率風險。 文中並記述三次預測時所輸入的經濟數據的整理方式不同，卻不影響匯率趨勢預測的結果。 簡單快速的在眾多經濟數據中找出具影響力的因子並對匯率趨勢預測做出結果為市場所需；當匯率趨勢確立，則需借重市場技術分析對於支撐點及壓力點的共同看法以確立避險點。 此論文一本EMBA對理論及實務的並重，將線性迴歸理論配合Eviews模型的簡易運用，在變異詭譎的外匯市場中，快速探誘市場的方向。

There are some substantial disparities among organizations in performance after going public in the Chinese automotive dealer industry. This dissertation analyzes the prospectus, organizational annual report, and other public data available for the public firms in the automotive dealer industry. The dissertation conducts a longitudinal analysis of firms with continuous development and firms with operating problems. Multiple regression models are used to test various hypotheses. The results indicate that firms that are backed by venture capital experience perform worse after the IPO. Ownership Structure is positively correlated with the change in firm performance around the IPO. The change in Venture Capital ownership around the IPO is negatively correlated with the change in firm performance. Moreover, the increase in Venture Capitalist age around the IPO is negatively correlated with firm performance. Since IPOs are associated with performance decline, recommendations are provided to mitigate their impact. / Business Administration/Finance

[pt] Esta tese de doutorado compõe-se de três artigos, sendo dois em finanças empíricas e um em microestrutura de mercado. O primeiro artigo estuda de que forma movimentos nas curvas de juros futuros em Reais e Dólares Americanos negociados na BM&F estariam relacionados com duas medidas de prêmio de risco cambial, uma à priori, calculada com base nas expectativas de variação cambial três meses à frente apuradas pelo Focus-BC, e outra à posteriori, calculada sobre a variação cambial efetiva realizada nos mesmos três meses. Os resultados mostram que movimentos da curva de DI parecem mais correlacionados com a variação cambial efetiva do que com as expectativas coletadas entre os agentes. O segundo artigo é uma variação do modelo de Ang e Piazzesi (2003), e investiga a contribuição do mercado de câmbio sobre o prêmio a termo na curva de juros futuros em Reais no Brasil. Usa-se uma UIP no lugar de uma Regra de Taylor para modelar a dinâmica da taxa de curto prazo, o que nos permite substituir as variáveis macro usuais de inflação e produto pela expectativa de variação cambial e prêmio de risco cambial na especificação do prêmio a termo na curva. O terceiro artigo propõe um modelo de mercado interdealer em três estágios onde o processo de revelação de informação é modelado como um sinal ruidoso e invertido de forma seqüencial nos dois estágios de negociação no mercado inter-dealer que se seguem à transação inicial. As simulações realizadas sugerem que a diversificação de risco na economia diminui quanto maior a precisão do sinal nos dois estágios. / [en] In this thesis we discuss two empirical essays in finance and one in market microstructure. The first article studies the joint dynamics of the two most liquid term structure of interest rates traded at BM&F, one in Brazilian reais and the other in US dollars, and two currency risk premia measures. One currency risk premia measure is obtained using currency expectation surveys conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil, while the other will be residual from the three month forward premium traded each day and the effective currency observed on the liquidation date three months after. Results show that the term structures will explain some of the realized currency risk premia observed three months after. We see this as an evidence in favor of information in the curves more correlated to the effective currency movement in three months than the expected devaluation. The second article proposes and extension of the framework introduced by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) to accommodate a no- arbitrage term structure model with macro factors. We replace the usual inflation and output macro factors for two currency variables, the expected currency devaluation and the currency risk premia. Results here show a better fit when compared to existing models estimated for Brazil. The third article proposes an inter-dealer market model in three stages, where disclosure of information is modeled by noisy informative signals. Simulations show that dealers better informed will play strategically to avoid revealing information and the risk-sharing in the economy will be lower when we increase the precision of the informative signals.

Broulík in his Master's Thesis sets his goal to analyse the automobile sales sector. He focuses mainly on the situation of automobile dealers. He depictures the contemporary development of automobile sales in the Czech Republic and in the world. He observes the impacts of the world economic crisis on automobile producers and dealers. He closer addresses the Škoda brand sales network which he uses to illustrate his findings. On the basis of the analysis of the automobile sales sector he establishes its particularities which he categorizes as supplier -- dealer relation particularities, sector particularities and dealer -- consumer relation particularities. Broulík assesses the current block exemption and compares it with the legal regime which will apply to the automobile sales sector in EFTA from the 1st June 2013. He concludes that the current block exemption suits the established sector particularities better. He however closes that neither the automobile producers' ascendancy over dealers nor many other sector particularities should be treated through economic competition legal regulation.

Diplomová práce charakterizuje podnikatelské prostředí Ukrajiny, popisuje existující překážky obchodu (tarifní, netarifní), ekonomickou a politickou situaci. Práce hodnotí, jaké jsou příležitosti pro zahraniční podnikatele. Součásti práce je také popisování obchodních zvyklostí ukrajinských podnikatelů a znalostí, které jsou nezbytné při uzavírání obchodních smluv. Dále jsou analyzovány zahraniční vztahy Ukrajiny, její zapojení do mezinárodního obchodu, účast v mezinárodních organizacích a regionálních seskupeních. Pozornost je věnována vztahům České republiky a Ukrajiny ? vzájemný obchod mezi ČR a Ukrajinou, možnosti pro české podnikatelské subjekty. Na příkladě konkrétní české firmy jsou popsány problémy, se kterými se lze potkat při vstupu na ukrajinský trh.