匯率預測方法甚多，從簡易的方法論到神經網絡預測法，乃至於基因演算法、、無一不自成格局。然而，由於影響匯率變動的因素太多，精確的預測模型往往趕不上匯率的變動速度。一本交易員對匯率預測的快速趨勢要求，採用EViews直線迴歸分析，簡易的將數據整理後載入預測模型，實證匯率可以快速測得準確的趨勢，藉此以規避市場匯率風險。 文中並記述三次預測時所輸入的經濟數據的整理方式不同，卻不影響匯率趨勢預測的結果。 簡單快速的在眾多經濟數據中找出具影響力的因子並對匯率趨勢預測做出結果為市場所需；當匯率趨勢確立，則需借重市場技術分析對於支撐點及壓力點的共同看法以確立避險點。 此論文一本EMBA對理論及實務的並重，將線性迴歸理論配合Eviews模型的簡易運用，在變異詭譎的外匯市場中，快速探誘市場的方向。

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abstract: The heliobacterial reaction center (HbRC) is widely considered the simplest and most primitive photosynthetic reaction center (RC) still in existence. Despite the simplicity of the HbRC, many aspects of the electron transfer mechanism remain unknown or under debate. Improving our understanding of the structure and function of the HbRC is important in determining its role in the evolution of photosynthetic RCs. In this work, the function and properties of the iron-sulfur cluster FX and quinones of the HbRC were investigated, as these are the characteristic terminal electron acceptors used by Type-I and Type-II RCs, respectively. In Chapter 3, I develop a system to directly detect quinone double reduction activity using reverse-phase high pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC), showing that Photosystem I (PSI) can reduce PQ to PQH2. In Chapter 4, I use RP-HPLC to characterize the HbRC, showing a surprisingly small antenna size and confirming the presence of menaquinone (MQ) in the isolated HbRC. The terminal electron acceptor FX was characterized spectroscopically and electrochemically in Chapter 5. I used three new systems to reduce FX in the HbRC, using EPR to confirm a S=3/2 ground-state for the reduced cluster. The midpoint potential of FX determined through thin film voltammetry was -372 mV, showing the cluster is much less reducing than previously expected. In Chapter 7, I show light-driven reduction of menaquinone in heliobacterial membrane samples using only mild chemical reductants. Finally, I discuss the evolutionary implications of these findings in Chapter 7. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biochemistry 2012

Thesis (M.F.A.)--Boston University / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / The auteur theory argues for the possibility that films produced within the highly regimented American studio system of the 1930's and 40's could be considered art, and their makers, auteurs (authors). This new theory, that both argued for the presence of a singular guiding intentionality behind a film, and for the critical canonization of films made in classic Hollywood changed the critical imagination of future film scholars. When Thomas Schatz took on the theory in his book, The Genius of the System, he argued that the collaborative nature of filmmaking in general and Hollywood filmmaking in particular complicated the existing theory, at least as it had been interpreted in America. Schatz's exhaustive study seeks to account for the masterworks of classical Hollywood through a systematic examination of the studio system, which he believed played a fundamental role in the films' success. While Schatz rails against some of the tenets of the auteur theory he simultaneously co-opts its critical system, and seems to make the argument for the studio as auteur. The idea that popular narrative entertainment produced within a highly regimented system can be taken as serious achievement, and that the large organization behind it can act as auteur, leads to the implied conclusion that a television network can function as an auteur as well. The television network is built on a studio-based production system much like classic Hollywood, and its directors of original programming provide the same guiding intentionality as the studio production chiefs of the past. To provide this hypothesis two case studies are performed on television networks, its products and its personnel. Section one discusses HBO as a prime example of a television auteur as its original programs are distinct and seem endemic to the networks overall style of presentation. Section two discusses FX as an example of a cable competitor who employs some of the same strategies as HBO, but with different programming executive who inflect the series with a distinct coherency and style of its own. / 2031-01-02

Na gestão de recursos financeiros, visualizar e gerenciar em tempo real os riscos inerentes a uma carteira de investimentos é uma tarefa crucial para que o objetivo de gerar lucro possa ser atingido, ou que pelo menos as perdas possam ser minimizadas. Uma das formas de realizar esse gerenciamento é submeter essas carteiras a simulações onde são definidos cenários contendo variações de fatores que possam influenciar os ativos nelas contidos. Dependendo da classe dos ativos financeiros analisados, essas simulações requerem uma ferramenta mais sofisticada, capaz de lidar com modelos complexos de precificação. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em resolver uma demanda real de uma gestora de recursos onde este autor atua: o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta capaz de realizar testes de stress em uma carteira de investimentos contendo mais especificamente opções de moedas. Foi desenvolvido um sistema no formato de add-in de Excel em que os gestores podem definir cenários com as variações desejadas e, em conjunto com dados de mercado em tempo real, avaliar o impacto dessas variações em seu portfolio. O desenvolvimento foi realizado em etapas, e a versão atual da ferramenta trouxe ganhos no tempo de execução das simulações na ordem de dez vezes, quando comparado à versão anterior. Nesta dissertação serão mostrados detalhes da implementação do sistema, bem como o embasamento teórico utilizado no seu desenvolvimento. Será apresentada uma breve descrição sobre o mercado de câmbio e seus instrumentos, incluindo opções de moedas. Também será descrito um modelo para precificação e mensuração de risco desses instrumentos. / In the financial resources management, visualizing and handling risks inherent in an investment portfolio in real time are key tasks to ensure that the objective of profit is accomplished, or at least that the losses are mitigated. One way to perform this kind of management is to submit the portfolio to scenario simulations, in which factors that might affect the assets held in the portfolio are stressed. Depending on the class of these assets, there is the need of a more sophisticated tool, capable of handling complex pricing models. The main purpose of this work is to solve a real demand for an investment management company for which this author works: the development of a tool capable to perform stress tests in an investment portfolio containing more specifically Foreign eXchange options. An Excel add-in has been developed and managers can use it to define scenarios with the desired bumps and, along with real time market data, analyze the impact of these bumps in the portfolio. The development has been made in phases and the tools current version has brought a reasonable improvement to the execution time of the simulations. In this thesis we will discuss systems implementation details, as well as the theoretical basis used in its development. An overview of the FX market and its instruments will be presented, including FX options. Also, there will be a description of a model for pricing and risk measurement of these instruments.

Na gestão de recursos financeiros, visualizar e gerenciar em tempo real os riscos inerentes a uma carteira de investimentos é uma tarefa crucial para que o objetivo de gerar lucro possa ser atingido, ou que pelo menos as perdas possam ser minimizadas. Uma das formas de realizar esse gerenciamento é submeter essas carteiras a simulações onde são definidos cenários contendo variações de fatores que possam influenciar os ativos nelas contidos. Dependendo da classe dos ativos financeiros analisados, essas simulações requerem uma ferramenta mais sofisticada, capaz de lidar com modelos complexos de precificação. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em resolver uma demanda real de uma gestora de recursos onde este autor atua: o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta capaz de realizar testes de stress em uma carteira de investimentos contendo mais especificamente opções de moedas. Foi desenvolvido um sistema no formato de add-in de Excel em que os gestores podem definir cenários com as variações desejadas e, em conjunto com dados de mercado em tempo real, avaliar o impacto dessas variações em seu portfolio. O desenvolvimento foi realizado em etapas, e a versão atual da ferramenta trouxe ganhos no tempo de execução das simulações na ordem de dez vezes, quando comparado à versão anterior. Nesta dissertação serão mostrados detalhes da implementação do sistema, bem como o embasamento teórico utilizado no seu desenvolvimento. Será apresentada uma breve descrição sobre o mercado de câmbio e seus instrumentos, incluindo opções de moedas. Também será descrito um modelo para precificação e mensuração de risco desses instrumentos. / In the financial resources management, visualizing and handling risks inherent in an investment portfolio in real time are key tasks to ensure that the objective of profit is accomplished, or at least that the losses are mitigated. One way to perform this kind of management is to submit the portfolio to scenario simulations, in which factors that might affect the assets held in the portfolio are stressed. Depending on the class of these assets, there is the need of a more sophisticated tool, capable of handling complex pricing models. The main purpose of this work is to solve a real demand for an investment management company for which this author works: the development of a tool capable to perform stress tests in an investment portfolio containing more specifically Foreign eXchange options. An Excel add-in has been developed and managers can use it to define scenarios with the desired bumps and, along with real time market data, analyze the impact of these bumps in the portfolio. The development has been made in phases and the tools current version has brought a reasonable improvement to the execution time of the simulations. In this thesis we will discuss systems implementation details, as well as the theoretical basis used in its development. An overview of the FX market and its instruments will be presented, including FX options. Also, there will be a description of a model for pricing and risk measurement of these instruments.

The subject of the diploma thesis is Foreign Exchange Management. The aim of the thesis is to analyse the differences of FX management in multinational corporations based on the case study. The theoretical part focuses on the possibilities of FX exposure management. In the case study the process of FX management in particular multinational company is analysed.

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é comparar o mercado à vista e futuro de câmbio no Brasil, buscando identificar em qual dos mercados se dá a formação da taxa de câmbio. Analisa-se o funcionamento do mercado cambial no seu nível micro, isto é, nas suas instituições e nas assimetrias dos seus participantes, através da abordagem da microestrutura. Utiliza-se uma base de dados que contém 100% das propostas de compra, venda e dos negócios fechados dos pregões de dólar futuro e do mercado interbancário de dólar à vista entre 01/02/2006 a 31/05/2007. Mostra-se que o mercado de dólar futuro é muito mais líquido do que o mercado à vista no Brasil. Ademais, demonstra-se que a cotação da taxa de câmbio se forma primeiro no mercado futuro, sendo então transmitida por arbitragem para o mercado à vista. Por fim, utiliza-se a abordagem da microestrutura para realizar previsões intradiárias para a taxa de câmbio, obtendo resultados superiores às demais abordagens usualmente testadas na literatura, como a Paridade Descoberta da Taxa de Juros e o passeio aleatório. / [en] This paper compares the spot and futures FX markets in Brazil, trying to identify which one leads the price determination. FX markets are analyzed at the micro level, at the level of its institutions and the asymmetries of its players, through the microstructure approach. A database that contains 100% of the bids, asks and deals of the dollar futures and interbank spot markets from 02/01/2006 to 05/31/2007 is used. It is shown that the futures market is much more liquid than the spot market in Brazil. Moreover, it is shown that the quote is determined firstly in the futures market, being transmitted through arbitrage to the spot market. The microstructure approach is also used to make intraday forecasts to the FX rate with superior results to the other approaches usually tested in the literature, like the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Random Walk.

Les mousses actives sont des solutions composites de contrôle du bruit qui combinent les avantages complémentaires du matériau en mousse passif et des actionneurs piézoélectriques répartis spatialement à l'intérieur des mousses. Une étude sur le problème de l'amélioration de l'indice d'affaiblissement des mousses actives en utilisant des stratégies de contrôle actif a été effectuée à la fois numériquement et expérimentalement à l'intérieur d'un guide d'onde sous la condition de propagation en ondes planes. Trois différents modèles de prototypes de mousse active ont été pris en compte dans les simulations par éléments finis et leur efficacité à annuler l'onde transmise en aval de la mousse active a été étudiée. Des études expérimentales afin d'optimiser l'indice d'affaiblissement des mousses actives sous une commande prédictive SISO avec un microphone unidirectionnel comme capteur d'erreur démontrent que l'efficacité du contrôle sur une large gamme de fréquences est bonne. Le problème physique de l'annulation de la propagation des ondes sonores est étudié en détail dans les simulations numériques et elles apportent un éclairage précieux sur l'altération de la réponse vibratoire de l'actionneur piézo-électrique de la mousse active sous contrôle optimal.Les résultats des simulations ont aussi contribué à l'identification de stratégies de contrôle-de rechange pour l'atténuation de l'onde sonore transmise à l'aide de la réponse sensorielle de l'actionneur distribué. On peut pour cela remplacer éventuellement l'utilisation de microphones en champ lointain et ainsi améliorer notablement la compacité du système de contrôle actif. La réponse sensorielle d'un piezo-actionneur, en raison de sa déformation mécanique est indépendante de la réponse de sa charge totale, avec la compensation analogique-numérique hybride de la"capacite feedthrough" de l'actionneur, à l'aide d'un algorithme adaptatif. Cette charge mécanique de réponse s'est revélé être une bonne approximation de la vitesse radiale du volume de l'actionneur, et peut être utilisée comme signal d'erreur pour maximiser l'indice d'affaiblissement du système de mousse active. En outre, elle a été utilisée dans l'absorption et les problèmes de contrôle TL, fonctionnant sur une erreur de stratégie virtuelle de détection, et a produit les résultats souhaités sur une large plage de fréquences. Le succès du principe capteur/actionneur dans les problèmes de contrôle actif du bruit peut donner des améliorations importantes en termes de positions et de configurations de capteurs d'erreurs associés aux systèmes de contrôle actif.

Most firms are actively assessing the financial risks exposure and do determine a policy for the hedging activities. It is not solely the risk aversive attitude from the managers that need to be overlooked, but to provide sufficient information to the shareholder is desirable for minimizing the gap of information asymmetry, which is by itself considered a tool for value creation (Bergstrand et al. 2009:45-47). To narrow this gap, listed Swedish companies have since 2005 been required to disclose their financial risk in their Annual Reports.  By using a quantitative approach the researcher will review the financial risk note in Annual Reports of 2008 to identify characteristics and determinant variables on firms depending on whether they utilize currency derivatives or not. An independent two-sample t-test has showed statistical significance that there difference of the means regarding size, FX exposure and leverage between users and non-users of currency derivatives. The means of currency derivatives users were higher for Size and FX exposure, while lower for leverage. A positive correlation between a firm’s size and FX exposure was found, suggesting that the determinant for hedging FX exposure could be explained by the size of the firm and vice versa.