To decide wisely whether to act on the basis of what one knows, whether to rely upon one's knowledge is an important ingredient in managerial skill. It depends upon knowing what one knows and what one can do. Knowing that one knows is conceptualized as the ability to discriminate what one knows from what one does not. It is measured by detectability of correctness A(c), a nonparametric signal detection measure of the capacity to distinguish correct from incorrect responses. The research reported is an exploration of that concept and of the characteristics of A(c) as a measure of it. The importance of knowing that one knows has been recognized, but little work has been done on it. Previous research along three separate lines is critically reviewed: philosophical analysis in epistemology, empirical research on calibration of subjective probabilities, and studies related to feelings of knowing. The measure A(c) is then developed and experimental results indicate that it is independent of the measure of knowing, the proportion of correct responses. It is shown that when there is opportunity to choose which questions in a test are to be answered, the expected score can be increased by an amount depending on the value of A(c). This effect is, essentially, a statement of the condition for validity of A(c) as a measure of knowing that one knows. The prediction is verified empirically. Reliability of A(c), assessed by the split-half method, is found to be higher than the reliability of the proportion of correct responses. Measurement of A(c) requires respondent-generated answers that can be unambiguously scored. The cloze procedure, of filling in missing words in verbal passages, common in reading research and testing, meets these requirements and has been used in the present research. The application is the first, as far as is known, in which confidence judgments have been obtained with cloze, and A(c) is expected to prove useful as a performance measure in cloze testing. In cloze experiments with native speakers of three different languages, who were also fluent in English, it was found that cloze scores did not distinguish between the native language and English but that A(c) was consistently higher for the native language. This finding and the results of another experiment identifying words heard in noise tend strongly to disconfirm the hypothesis that conscious attention to skill learning leads to one's knowing more about what one knows. Perhaps the opposite is the case. Finally, there is significant, but not conclusive, evidence that detectability of correctness can be improved by learning. It is concluded that knowing that one knows is a useful concept separate from knowing and is suitably measured by A(c), but that the determinants of it and its relation to other abilities are yet to be determined.

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The thesis comprises of two essays. Although the two essays deal with somewhat different situations and use different approaches, both of them essentially examine the problem of making decisions that affect some group of individuals. The first essay is on moral hazard and looks at the principal's problem in a principal-agent(s) free-rider problem in which, unlike most existing work, the principal is not precluded from participating in the production process. Furthermore, there are no uncertainties, but moral hazard is caused by joint production which renders the action of each individual in the production process unobservable. A multi-stage extensive game in which only the principal can propose the output sharing rule determines both the set of individuals who actually participate in the joint production process and the output sharing rule. The main conclusion we draw in the first essay is that, when designing the optimal output sharing rule, the principal need not look for any output sharing rule more sophisticated than the linear or piecewise linear rules we frequently observe. We also characterize the condition under which the principal chooses to take part in production, and conclude that the issue of mitigation of moral hazard and sustainability of efficiency crucially hinges on whether the principal actually participates in production or not. More concretely, we show that moral hazard dissipates completely whenever the principal does not participate in production, however, even then she does not achieve as much welfare as in the First Best situation if her best option in the First Best situation is to take part in production. The second essay is in stochastic social choice theory. In a paper published in 1986 in Econometrica, Pattanaik and Peleg formulated stochastic analogues for each of Arrow's axioms and concluded that the stochastic social choice functions that satisfy their axioms are essentially randon dictatorships when individuals have strict preferences. More precisely, there is a unique weight associated with each individual such that the vector of these individual weights has the properties of a probability distribution over the set of individuals, and, given any preference profile and any feasible set, the probability that a feasible alternative is chosen is equal to the sum of the weights of those individuals who have this alternative as their best feasible alternative. We extend the analysis of Pattanaik and Peleg by allowing individuals to have weak preferences. As in their paper, it turns out that the probabilistic versions of Arrow's condition simply that there are individual weights. However, now, given a preference profile and a feasible set, we partition the society so that any two individuals from different elements of the partition have no common best feasible alternatives, but the set of best feasible alternatives of each individual in an element of the partition overlaps with that of some other individual in the same element. Using this partition, it is shown that the only restriction on the stochastic social choice function is that the sum of the weights of all individuals belonging to the same element in the partition is equal to the probability that some alternative which is best in the feasible set for one of these individuals is chosen. When everyone has unique best feasible alternatives, the rules characterized here reduce to those of Pattanaik and Peleg.

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In recent years researchers interested in family decision making have argued for the need to apply a conceptual framework to the study of parental decision making about child-rearing issues. This study is an attempt to construct a theory-based model of parental decision-making strategies. Two theoretical approaches were employed; a structural-developmental approach to provide an understanding of parental cognition, and an information processing approach to the study of decision-making strategies. Previous research has demonstrated that pressure of time and task complexity were important in influencing the selection and use of information. These two factors were manipulated by the researcher. A model of parental decision-making strategies was proposed and tested in a pilot study. The decision was made to reduce the number of variables to those which demonstrated the potential to make a significant contribution to an understanding of parental decision making. These variables were tested in the main study. Sixty mothers participated in the study. They represented a wide range of socio-economic and educational backgrounds as well as number of years of parenting experience and age. Participants completed Newberger’s Level of Parental Awareness Interview and four decision tasks about two childrearing issues. The decision tasks were presented on information boards. The model of parental decision-making strategies was tested using multivariate analysis of variance with repeated measures. Significant effects were obtained for level of parental awareness, pressure of time, task complexity and number of years of formal education. The reduced model explained much of the variance in parental decision-making strategies (71%). Specific hypotheses concerning level of parental awareness and information use were supported. The results inform theory and practice. Support was found for the theory-based model and for Liben’s view of a rapprochement between developmental theory and information-processing theory. Parents with more knowledge about parenting used less information and more variability in their decision making. Support was found for Newberger’s measure and construct. Practical implications for parent education were curricula described.

Past research has demonstrated that individual and group judgments are subject to systematic biases. Although much effort has been devoted to the debiasing of individual judgments, no corresponding work to date has been found on the debiasing of group judgments. Complicating this research gap is the fact that group and team work is gaining increasing importance in organizational settings. The current study examines the usefulness of group support systems (GSS) in addressing two important judgment biases, namely, representativeness bias and availability bias. Representativeness bias refers to the bias incurred in posterior-probability estimation by not properly utilizing information sources such as base rate. Availability bias occurs when events of higher availability to the memory are correspondingly judged as occurring more frequently. The formation of a judgment is seen from the perspective of an information integration process. Two orthogonal dimensions of information integration -- interpersonal and intrapersonal -- are involved in group judgments. Interpersonal information integration concerns the aspect of information sharing among group members, and can be supported with the electronic communication channel of GSS. Intrapersonal information integration deals with the information processing capacities and capabilities of individuals, and is supportable using cognitive-support tools of GSS. A laboratory experiment with a 2x2 factorial design was conducted. One hundred and twenty subjects took part in the experiment. They were randomly allocated to 40 groups. Two experimental tasks, designed to examine the two judgment biases of interest, were solved by each group. Data pertaining to both processes and outcomes were collected and analyzed. Representativeness bias was reduced by the use of cognitive support, in the form of a problem representation tool. Groups with the problem representation tool made fewer references to diagnostic information versus base rate, leading to the use of more correct strategies which combined these two information sources. The use of the problem representation tool was found to be responsible for causing this chain of events. On the other hand, electronic communication did not lead to a similar change in the pattern of group processes, and, correspondingly, did not reduce the representativeness bias. Although electronic communication is capable of improving the interpersonal aspect of information integration, the representativeness bias is primarily a result of cognitive limitations, and benefits little from improved communication among group members. Availability bias was reduced by both cognitive support and communication support. Cognitive support, in the form of electronic brainstorming, increased the information search scope of issues, especially those issues of relatively low availability to the memory. Electronic communication allows parallel input and has a lower social presence than verbal communication. These features helped to reduce the extent of groupthink and widened the range of alternative solutions proposed. Some interaction effects were observed on group members’ perceptions of the group process. For example, communication medium had an effect on group members’ satisfaction in groups without cognitive support, but not those with cognitive support. Correspondingly, cognitive support affected some perceptual variables in verbally-communicating groups, but not electronically-communicating groups. Examples of such effects include an increase in perceived socio-emotional behavior and perceived informal leadership.

Traditionally, feasibility analysis in the construction sector is limited to financial considerations. As the concept of sustainability becomes increasingly important, the methods used in a feasibility analysis have to be reconfigured in a way that incorporates elements of sustainability. This research uses water recycling systems (within the built environment) as an example to demonstrate how sustainability factors can be integrated quantitatively in feasibility studies. The model is structured in a triple-bottom-line framework, which consists of economic, environmental, and social aspects. Each aspect is measured by a spectrum of parameters, which evaluate three project outcomes of water recycling systems—water savings, project requirements, and positive image. Based on the quantified parameters, Green Factor, a decision making method, is formulated to assist in sustainability oriented feasibility analysis for construction projects.

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