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This research utilises existing problem solving and decision making theories to explain the complex organisational process by which Royal Mail revises Postal Officers' walks in mail delivery. A field study in the RM demonstrates that this is a complex task involving a political / negotiation process comprising many stakeholders with different agendas. Two conclusions are drawn. First, a pluralistic model of decision making is required to explain this process. Second, the model that guides the RM is a rational / optimal decision making model. The RM has employed computer-based systems to support the revision process. Case studies are reported of the revision processes undertaken with and without computer aids. These demonstrate that the existing computer system provides limited assistance and its use is sporadic. A new Walk Optimisation system was being considered for purchase and development and the thesis follows the processes employed. Three conclusions were drawn. First, the development process for the new system utilised a technical agenda similar to the rational model of decision making. Second, by reference to the case study material, it was likely the new system would have organisational implications which could lead to dysfunction. Third the current development process being followed would not address these issues. In the final part of the thesis a series of Future Implementation Scenario workshops are described which attempted to assist the RM staff in identifying the organisational implications of the WO system before it was implemented. The scenario exercise explored three characteristics of participants; knowledge of the stakeholder roles affected, knowledge of the RM, and knowledge of the WO system. The workshops succeeded in revealing many organisational issues which need addressing if the new system is to improve decision making in the Revision Process. Contrary to expectations the greater knowledge of participants did not translate into a richer analysis of the implications. The thesis concludes that a full understanding of organisational decision making requires the integration of rational, bounded and social / political approaches, and that this also applies to systems design process. It also concludes that the models and methods used within organisations need to be broadened and recognise the social / organisational agenda but that the methods currently available are difficult to apply. Funhennore, by continuing with a rational / technological approach to decision making, organisations limit their future decision making options and the process is, therefore, self-perpetuating.

M.Com. (Business Management) / The business environment requires more emphasis on decision making as a result of ever increasing competition. The decision making process must therefore be speeded up in order to make companies more competitive. This places more pressure on decision makers and allows for fewer mistakes. Decisions on executive level are made by the executive committee. Executives concentrate inevitably more on those decisions that have a major impact on the company and their decision-making ability has obvious implications for the success of the organisation. It is vital that decisions are taken effectively with clearly defined elements through a distinct order of steps. The decision-making process starts with the observation of the business environment and the subsequent formation of opinions of .various situations found therein. Needs and opportunities are identified by being constantly aware of activities in this environment. The identification of needs and opportunities should be a conscious and continuous process for management. The next step in the decision-making process is the setting of specific goals to be achieved by the decision. Goals are set to establish what must be achieved by such a decision. Certain goals must be met and others are set in order to evaluate different altematives. Different goals, which could range from primary to operational goals. should therefore be set and it is important that goals for a particular decision are supportive of the primary company goals. Goals are valuable as a standard against which alternatives can be evaluated. The development of different alternatives from which a choice has to be made enhances the quest for an optimal solution to a need or opportunity. The decision-making process must be a logical and orderly process in order to enable the decision maker to make an optimal decision. De Bono's (1985) "Six Thinking Hats" provides a logical method of decision-making by a group. By practicing the "Six Thinking Hats" principle a group of decision makers can develop alternatives to come to a decision in a systematic way without the normal customary conflict inherent in group decision making. The choice between the different alternatives is the last step in the decision-making process. The decision makers must compare the different alternatives with predetermined standards to be able to establish the optimal choice. These standards include historical, external and optimal standards as well as the maintenance of the status quo. The final decision is made according to the degree that the alternative complies with the decision goals and to the degree of confidence that the decision-making team have in the forecast of the possible consequences of the alternative. Decisions on executive level are mostly concerned with the future and as such fairly uncertain. As a result of the ever increasing competition in the business environment and largely due to the rapid development of technology, the need for aids in decision-making is becoming more of a necessity with less room for mistakes. Forecasting is a decision-making aid that can be used by management in all the functional departments of the business. It is, however, important that there is communication between departments to ensure that the appropriate information is used in forecasting models. The choice of the appropriate forecasting technique depends on the characteristics of the forecasting situation and the characteristics of the forecasting technique. The forecasting technique is chosen according to the circumstances and the requirements of the particular situation that requires forecasting. The decisions that executives make are subject to both uncertainty as well as risk. The risks that are known to the decision makers can be quantified by adding probabilities to particular alternatives. The degree of risk that the executives are prepared to take depends on their attitude towards risk.

M.Comm. / The overall goal of this short dissertation is to investigate the influence of Facebook on the consumer decision-making process of students at a comprehensive university. The five phases of the consumer decision-making process will be at the core of this study; (1) Problem recognition, (2) Information search, (3) Evaluation of alternatives, (4) Purchase, (5) Post-purchase. Included in the study is the profile of consumers who use Facebook, the general trends surfacing from the use of online activities, an investigation into each of the five phases mentioned that contribute to the influence Facebook exerts. And ultimately, indicating that Facebook has various degrees of influence or no influence on the different phases in the consumer-decision making process. This study, through a self administered drop-off questionnaire whose valid respondents (total of 325 respondents), provided information about the respondents‟ demographic profile, online activities and behaviour along the five phase consumer decision-making process. As the topic of this study was about the usage of Facebook, the sample set qualifier was that having a Facebook profile was a prerequisite. The statistical techniques used in the study were based on descriptive analysis which enabled the analysis of the data with regard to the relationship of the variables whereby the data was easily summarised and understood. The other statistical technique used was factor analysis whereby the reliability and validity of the data was verified and further relationships between the variables were examined. The findings indicate that respondents exhibited actions influenced by Facebook in the first two phases of the decision making process (Problem recognition and Information search), than was evident in the remaining three phases. This framework provides the basis for further investigation into the influence of Facebook in the areas of problem recognition and information search and provides the opportunity for marketers to position themselves in a way that will address the two phases by being present on the Facebook platform.

Please read the abstract in the section, 00front, of this document / Thesis (PhD (Information Technology))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Informatics / PhD / unrestricted

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The aim of this study was to suggest ways to use enterprise risk management (ERM) effectively towards achieving strategic objectives at East London Industrial Development Zone. The results of the research will contribute to the set of tools which business can utilise in effective business planning and achieve sustainability of enterprises. Enterprise risk management provides stakeholders with reasonable assurance that management has taken due care in drawing up strategies aligned with their appetite for risk. The objective was to investigate the utilisation of Enterprise Risk Management at East London Industrial Development Zone. The literature review revealed shortcomings of the traditional risk management strategy. Examples of the shortcomings are its preoccupation with hazard risks and its disconnection with other functions in an organisation. ERM has emerged as the organisation wide approach to the handling of risk. Effectively integrated with strategy-setting and performance management, ERM strengthens opportunity-seeking behaviour by helping directors and managers develop the confidence that they truly understand the risks inherent in the organization’s strategy and have the capabilities in place to manage and monitor those risks. The assessment of risks after the strategy formulation process results in defective risk management. The result could be strategic objectives that are unrealistic and risk management that is just an appendage to performance management. The empirical study consisted of face-to-face interviews using semi-structured questionnaires. The respondents were Business Unit Managers at East London Industrial Development Zone who advised on current practice of ERM in the organization. The main findings of the empirical investigation revealed that ERM started with organisational survival in mind but ended up being a compliance activity. Also, ERM is under-resourced as there are no dedicated ERM financial and human resources. The organization’s unstructured and informal approach to ERM could place the strategic objectives at risk. Recommendations conclude the investigation and address the shortcomings and improvements that can be made to the utilisation of ERM within the organization. The recommendations are ensuring strong commitment towards ERM and widening the participation of all employees in ERM; developing an ERM road map; allocation of resources to ERM initiative; development of a business case for ERM; training of all managers and all employees on ERM; and focusing on low-hanging return, which may result in quicker realisation of the value added by ERM to the organization.

The aim of this study was to suggest ways to effectively utilise Activity-Based Costing and Activity-Based Managment within Eskom Transmission Southern Grid to improve decision making towards improved business and financial performance. The ultimate purpose was to assist managers and staff to implement ABC and ABM effectively for improved business and financial performance. The focus was on the following objective: To suggest ways to effectively utilise ABC & ABM within Eskom Transmission Southern Grid as to improve decision making and business financial performance. Given the selection of management tools available, instruments such as ABC and ABM are usually not implemented alone, but may be supported by one or more approaches. For this reason ABC and ABM are contrasted with several other popular instruments mentioned in the literature. The instruments are: • The value chain; • Continuous improvement; • The theory of constraints; and • Total quality management. Insight will be given to provide managers with more accurate information regarding maintenance for the Grid and tools in identifying critical bottlenecks. By applying the TOC, TQM and continuous improvement strategies, managers will be able to make improved decisions, leading to improved financial performance in the Eskom Transmission Southern Grid. iii The literature study revealed that ABC and ABM prove to be the cornerstone for informed decision making. Since organisations are highly dependent on quality information to make these informed decisions, ABC and ABM reorientate the organisation towards understanding and managing work processes thus impacting financial performance positively. ABC and ABM trace the cost of activities such as engineering and procurement to how maintenance benefits from these activities. The empirical study consisted of a structured questionnaire distributed to a sample population of engineers and managers in Eskom Transmission Southern Grid in Port Elizabeth. It was aimed at gathering information about the use of ABC and ABM within the Grid. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted with financial staff in the Grid and a focus group interview with engineering staff was done. The main findings of the empirical investigation revealed that management and staff lack insight into the use of ABC and ABM and how it can be integrated with existing improvement systems within the organisation. This study is concluded with a number of recommendations. These recommendations address the shortcomings and improvements that can be made to improve the utilisation of ABC and ABM within the organisation. The recommendations address the following: • Ensuring full commitment towards organisational goals and broadening the endorsement of ABC within the organisation; • Highlighting the importance of financial performance throughout the Grid; • Training of Managers, finance staff and engineers is required for proper execution of the ABC system; • Implementers need skills and know-how of the ABC and ABM system ensuring full utilisation; • The main cost drivers are identified, prioritised and efforts channelled into these activities; • Tools such as the Theory Of Constraints and Total Quality Management from the proposed model would assist the Grid in identifying the bottlenecks of a system correctly, thus know explicitly the amount of slack capacity of each activity available during a specific time period.

The thesis comprises of two essays. Although the two essays deal with somewhat different situations and use different approaches, both of them essentially examine the problem of making decisions that affect some group of individuals. The first essay is on moral hazard and looks at the principal's problem in a principal-agent(s) free-rider problem in which, unlike most existing work, the principal is not precluded from participating in the production process. Furthermore, there are no uncertainties, but moral hazard is caused by joint production which renders the action of each individual in the production process unobservable. A multi-stage extensive game in which only the principal can propose the output sharing rule determines both the set of individuals who actually participate in the joint production process and the output sharing rule. The main conclusion we draw in the first essay is that, when designing the optimal output sharing rule, the principal need not look for any output sharing rule more sophisticated than the linear or piecewise linear rules we frequently observe. We also characterize the condition under which the principal chooses to take part in production, and conclude that the issue of mitigation of moral hazard and sustainability of efficiency crucially hinges on whether the principal actually participates in production or not. More concretely, we show that moral hazard dissipates completely whenever the principal does not participate in production, however, even then she does not achieve as much welfare as in the First Best situation if her best option in the First Best situation is to take part in production. The second essay is in stochastic social choice theory. In a paper published in 1986 in Econometrica, Pattanaik and Peleg formulated stochastic analogues for each of Arrow's axioms and concluded that the stochastic social choice functions that satisfy their axioms are essentially randon dictatorships when individuals have strict preferences. More precisely, there is a unique weight associated with each individual such that the vector of these individual weights has the properties of a probability distribution over the set of individuals, and, given any preference profile and any feasible set, the probability that a feasible alternative is chosen is equal to the sum of the weights of those individuals who have this alternative as their best feasible alternative. We extend the analysis of Pattanaik and Peleg by allowing individuals to have weak preferences. As in their paper, it turns out that the probabilistic versions of Arrow's condition simply that there are individual weights. However, now, given a preference profile and a feasible set, we partition the society so that any two individuals from different elements of the partition have no common best feasible alternatives, but the set of best feasible alternatives of each individual in an element of the partition overlaps with that of some other individual in the same element. Using this partition, it is shown that the only restriction on the stochastic social choice function is that the sum of the weights of all individuals belonging to the same element in the partition is equal to the probability that some alternative which is best in the feasible set for one of these individuals is chosen. When everyone has unique best feasible alternatives, the rules characterized here reduce to those of Pattanaik and Peleg. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

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