No abstract / Decision Sciences / M. Sc. (Operations Research)

published_or_final_version / Business / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Computer Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

The primary focus of the research is the application of computer technology to the field sales function. A review of the literature, a survey of an industry and a study of a geographic market indicate the general lack of direct computer support currently available to the field salesman. At the same time, selling costs are increasing and capable sales people are scarce. Computer support that results in better sales calls meets an existing and important need. A model of the sales decision process was developed. It addresses the two major questions all field salesmen ask: on whom to call and how to prepare. The information content of the model was identified and a decision support system was designed and developed to provide the needed data. A number of organizations were studied to test the implementations. These case studies formed the basis for the results. The computer based system collects, maintains and retrieves data on customers, prospects and sales calls. This information helps the salesman to select daily those companies on which to call and to better prepare for those calls. Management control of sales activity is improved and the data becomes a company resource. The system does not make decisions for the salesman. It does provide information to help the salesman manage his territory and it offers continuity to the organization when responsibility is transferred. The research also investigates the behavior of system users and the iterative nature of the design process. The system provides a convenient vehicle to do this as its five implementations have spanned four and a half years and have included six organizations, seventeen salesmen and real-time, batch and service bureau modes of operation.

The problem of selecting appropriate mathematical models for use in studying hydrological phenomena has created a situation in which the choice of suitable models by hydrologic practitioners has become exceedingly complex. The extensive comments in the literature indicate that neither the traditional system of technical journals nor the more modern computer-based retrieval schemes have really solved the problem. Further examination shows that similar problems have arisen in many fields, hence a well organized attack on the specific problem of hydrologic model choice can have a more general application. The present problem is identified as a requirement to codify and make accessible to users information in a more directly user oriented format. The problem of model choice arises at several levels, ranging from decision on what fundamental structure to use, to choice of parameters, and on to model calibration and validation. This paper is focused on a scheme to aid in model structure choice. The essential ingredients of model structure choice, and indeed of many choice processes, are extracted and embedded in a generalized set theoretic mathematical notational framework in order to give some insight into the nature of the problem. Within this framework the specialized features of the model choice problem are analyzed, and a specialized model is developed for assisting in model choice and all problems similarly situated. These considerations lead to the development of a finite vector of objective statements with codified responses prepared by a panel of qualified researchers who are willing and able to construct the essential information in a user oriented format. It is required that the panel not only couch their information in objective oriented terms but that they also generate value judgments for the individual components. In this way, those using the system can take advantage of the expert opinions embedded in the model while, at the same time, tailoring the choice to meet their own specific needs and aspirations. This results in what is defined as a mathematical CHOICEMODEL. The implementation of a system for interactive computation of the CHOICEMODEL is described in detail, and the associated computer programs are presented in appendices. A detailed instruction manual is given, and the implementation of the method is illustrated by an easily understood model of the ingredients of the problem of selecting an 8-track stereo tape deck for home use. The plan is outlined whereby hydrologic choice models can be developed within the CHOICEMODEL system by a selected panel of expert EVALUATORS.

No description available.