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Risk identification and assessment in a risk based audit environment: the effects of budget constraints and decision aid useDiaz, Michelle Chandler 30 October 2006 (has links)
Risk based audit (RBA) approaches represent a major trend in current audit methodology. The approach is based on risk analysis used to identify business strategy risk. The RBA has created a new set of research issues that need investigation. In particular, this approach has important implications for risk identification and risk assessment. The success of the RBA approach is contingent on understanding what factors improve or interfere with the accuracy of these risk judgments. I examine how budget constraints and decision aid use affect risk identification and risk assessment. Unlike previous budget pressure studies, I cast budget constraints as a positive influence on auditors. I expect more stringent budget constraints to be motivating to the auditor as they provide a goal for the auditor to achieve. I also expect budget constraints to induce feelings of pressure leading to the use of time-pressure adaptation strategies. When auditors have use of a decision aid, they take advantage of these motivational goals and/or use beneficial adaptive strategies. Overall, I find that auditor participants tend to be more accurate when identifying financial statement risks compared to business risks. Budget constraints have no effect on risk identification for financial or business risks; they also have no effect on financial risk assessments. On the other hand, business risk assessments are improved by implementing more stringent budget constraints, but only when a decision aid is also provided. Budget constraints can affect performance through a goal theory route or a time-pressure adaptation route. I investigate the paths through which budget constraints improve business risk assessments under decision aid use. I find that budget constraints directly affect performance, supporting a goal theory route. However, I do not find that budget constraints are mediated by perceived budget pressure as expected. Auditors appear to use a positive adaptive strategy to respond to perceived budget pressure, however perceived budget pressure is not induced by providing a more stringent budget.
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Exploring Sequential Choice Task StrategiesLangstaff, Jesse January 2011 (has links)
The current study provides evidence that individuals tend to adopt an integrative choice strategy when making sequential decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This contrasts with prior literature which proposes that decisions are made one at a time in isolation from one another (Camerer et al., 1997). By creating an experimental work task where only wage quality and feedback are manipulated, the resulting changes in intertemporal substitution between work and leisure are observed. In Experiments 1 3, a positive relationship between wages and time spent working that did not depend on task experience was observed. These results suggest that decisions are being made in consideration of other decisions, as isolated decisions would yield a negative relationship between wages and time spent working. In Experiment 4 these results were mitigated by the difficulty in differentiating between low and high wage quality days. These findings are taken to suggest that the results of prior studies are primarily due to self-control issues that subjects faced, which are not present in the present study.
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Conflict detection in dual-process theory: Are we good at detecting when we are biased at decision making?Pennycook, Gordon Robert January 2011 (has links)
In the domain of reasoning and decision making, some dual-process theorists have suggested that people are highly efficient at detecting conflicting outputs engendered by competing intuitive and analytic processes (De Neys & Glumicic, 2008; De Neys, Vartanian & Goel, 2008). For example, De Neys and Glumicic (2008) demonstrated that participants’ reason longer about problems that are characterized by a conflict between a stereotypical personality description and a base-rate probability of group membership. Crucially, this increase occurred even when participants gave the nominally erroneous stereotypical response (i.e., “neglecting” the base-rate probability), indicating that their participants detected that there was a conflict and, as a result, engaged in slow, analytic processing to resolve it. However, this finding, and much of the additional support for the efficient conflict detection hypothesis, has come from base-rate neglect problems constructed with probabilities (e.g., 995 doctors and 5 nurses) that were much more extreme than typically used in studies of base-rate neglect. I varied the base-rate probabilities over five experiments and compared participants’ response time for conflict problems with non-conflict problems. It was demonstrated that the integral increase in response time for stereotypical responses to conflict problems was fully mediated by extreme probabilities. I conclude that humans are not as efficient at detecting when they are engaging in biased reasoning as De Neys and colleagues have claimed.
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Preferences, Information, and Group Decision MakingEspinoza, Alejandro 15 May 2009 (has links)
This study will examine how the structure of preferences of group members in a
decision-making group, as well as the information they have, affects the collection and
the processing of information by individual members of a decision making group.
Structure of preferences in this study will represent each individual group members’
preference towards a particular course of action. Using an experimental method of
analysis, this study will examine how the preference structure of a group affects what
and how much information a group member will analyze before making a decision. I
hypothesize that the structure of the group members’ preferences should affect the
subjects’ search and process of information. This study aims to answer the following
questions; do group preferences affect the search and processing of information? Do
group members thoroughly survey the objectives and alternatives in the decision making
process?
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The decision-making modeling for concurrent planning of construction projectsShim, Euysup 15 May 2009 (has links)
Concurrent construction, in which multiple construction activities are carried out
concurrently or overlapping, is a method developed to reduce time-to-market and
increase the value of the project to the owner or user. When overlapping activities, the
additional cost for overlap is affected by the interaction between overlapped activities
which is affected by the construction work methods used. Thus concurrent planning of
construction projects can lead to a benefit for the owner through investigating the
interactions between work methods under overlap and finding the best degrees of
overlap. However, the determination of the best solution from all the possible
combinations of multiple methods and degrees of overlap is affected by the decisionmaking
approach: by a centralized decision-maker (e.g., the project manager) with less
accurate information about cost estimates or by a decentralized decision-maker(s) (e.g.,
subcontractors) with a myopic viewpoint.
The objective of this dissertation is to compare the solutions from the two
decision-making approaches and to identify the conditions in which one approach is
preferred to the other. Thus project owners can benefit from choosing a better approach for concurrent planning under their own conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation model for
each decision-making approach was developed: an algorithm for finding the best
solution was developed by heuristic methods. Several parameters were incorporated into
the models to reflect different conditions for the decision-making approaches: number of
activities, number of methods, the project manager’s solution capacity, the uncertainty in
the project manager’s knowledge and attitudes towards risk.
The comparison of the two approaches was implemented with random cost under
different conditions. Furthermore, the model was applied to a hypothetical construction
project. From the simulations the major conclusions include: (1) The decentralized
approach becomes preferred with more activities; (2) Considering more methods
provides more potential for higher benefit to the owner in the decentralized approach; (3)
The decentralized approach is recommended under risk-averse attitude and high
uncertainty in the project manager’s knowledge.
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Investigating online decision-making stylesPark, Young A 15 May 2009 (has links)
As one of the factors influencing consumers purchase behavior, decision-making
styles are crucial for understanding consumer shopping behavior and for developing
successful marketing strategies. Decision-making styles have been mainly viewed as a
relatively enduring consumer personality that seldom changes even when applied to
different goods and situations. Recently, a study showed that consumer decision-making
styles are influenced by product type, suggesting that decision-making styles are
individual response patterns in a specific decision context rather than personality trait
based. Despite extensive research regarding consumer decision making styles, relatively
little attention has been paid to identify whether consumer decision-making styles are
truly personality trait based or context-dependent. Thus, this work challenged the theory
that decision-making styles are personality trait based and investigated whether decisionmaking
styles are context dependent.
Three independent studies, focusing on extending our knowledge regarding
consumer decision-making styles, were conducted. The first study examined whether
consumer decision-making styles depend on channel type (online versus offline channels). In addition, it explored new types of decision-making styles which better
represent current consumer needs and preferences. Study results supported previous
arguments suggesting that decision-making styles are not personality trait based but vary
across contexts. Results also demonstrated the need to continuously observe consumers’
decision-making styles and capture emerging new styles. The second study explored
whether product characteristics, specifically intangibility and non-standardization,
influence consumer decision-making styles in an online context. At the same time, this
study examined whether there is any interaction effect between product type and product
involvement. The results showed that certain types of online decision-making styles are
influenced by product type. The results also showed that product involvement has an
important role in influencing online decision-making styles. The third study investigated
whether consumer online decision-making styles influence loyalty toward online travel
agencies. The results of the study provide support for five out of eleven hypotheses,
indicating that consumers’ online decision-making styles significantly influence loyalty
toward online travel agencies. Finally, the overall findings, limitations of the studies,
agenda for future research, and practical and theoretical implications were discussed.
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Experiments on decision making and auctionsWatson, Elizabeth Ann 02 June 2009 (has links)
Experimental economics is often called upon to inform theory and aid in explaining real world behavior. As such it is important to carefully design laboratory experiments to test the validity of new theories and to reexamine results that demonstrate robust anomalies of classic theory. My first aim is to design an experiment that will allow me to test the propensity of subjects to use CaseBased Decision Theory (from now on referred to as CBDT). I carefully design a setting in which the predicted choices of CBDT are deterministic and unique to CBDT (i.e. different from the predicted choices of other relevant decision making processes). I examine how well CBDT organizes subject choices when subjects are asked to make thirty independent decisions each with a fixed and given history. I find that some subjects do appear to be using the information given to them in the form of CaseBased Decision making.
My second goal is to revisit traditional firstprice private values auction experiments with the idea of making the priceprobability tradeoff, the central consideration in auctions, more salient to subjects. I approach this in two different ways. First, I use a customdesigned graphical interface which displays all results both visually and numerically. In this treatment I find that subjects bid more aggressively than predicted by riskneutral BayesNash equilibrium. Second, I restructure the presentation of the idiosyncratic reservation value. Subjects are now engaging in some economic behavior and earning their total consumer surplus each period. This differs from traditional firstprice private values auction experiments in which subjects only earn a payoff if they win the auction. Here I observe that market prices in a sealedbid implementation are significantly lower than those reported using the standard auction setup.
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Perception of genetic risk in sexual and reproductive decision-making (PGRID) by college studentsHonoré, Heather Helaine 2008 August 1900 (has links)
One psychosocial variable, human mate selection, has been studied extensively
within the field of evolutionary psychology. A question of interest is how
sexual/reproductive decision-making (i.e., dating, marrying, and childbearing) might be
influenced by an individual’s perception of his/her genetic risk and other psychosocial
variables. There is a paucity of empirical studies within the literature exploring this
specific relationship.
This partially mixed, sequential mixed methods study addresses how individual
perception of genetic risk (PGR) influences or predicts sexual/reproductive intentions
and decision-making. A systematic review of the literature was conducted by searching
for English language, peer-reviewed, empirical studies in Cambridge Scientific Abstracts
databases (N=26). Next, students from three Southwestern universities were recruited
for focus groups and responded to 15 open-ended questions (N=86). Transcripts were
audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and analyzed using holistic-content analysis. Based on the literature review and qualitative findings, a 138-item, web-based instrument was
designed and tested at two Southwestern universities (N=2,576). Survey data were
analyzed using non-parametric univariate analyses and multiple regression.
Approximately 50 demographic, individual/familial psychosocial and genetic
testing-related factors influenced the relationship between PGR and sexual/reproductive
decision-making in reviewed studies. Individual psychosocial factors (e.g., intention,
attitudes) represented 65.8% of all findings. Participants in the qualitative phase
exhibited moderate health literacy when interpreting and discussing genetic risk
information. A number of factors including age, gender, religion, individual/family
values, and exposure to genetic concepts/technology appeared to influence
sexual/reproductive decision-making.
Demographic, Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Planned Behavior
(TPB) variables predicted the relationship between PGR and dating, marital, and
childbearing intention in the quantitative phase. TPB variables were the strongest
predictors of intention accounting for 33.1-38.7% of variance. Positive family norms
were the single best predictor of dating and marital intention. Age was the best predictor
of childbearing intention.
Further research is needed to understand how young adults incorporate genetic
risk perceptions into sexual/reproductive decision-making. Mixed methods and
longitudinal study designs, and structural equation modeling are recommended for use in
future studies. Study findings affirm a need for health educators to consider adopting genomic competencies; creating theory-based curricula/interventions; and forming
partnerships with genetic specialists and local/regional health departments.
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Risk identification and assessment in a risk based audit environment: the effects of budget constraints and decision aid useDiaz, Michelle Chandler 30 October 2006 (has links)
Risk based audit (RBA) approaches represent a major trend in current audit methodology. The approach is based on risk analysis used to identify business strategy risk. The RBA has created a new set of research issues that need investigation. In particular, this approach has important implications for risk identification and risk assessment. The success of the RBA approach is contingent on understanding what factors improve or interfere with the accuracy of these risk judgments. I examine how budget constraints and decision aid use affect risk identification and risk assessment. Unlike previous budget pressure studies, I cast budget constraints as a positive influence on auditors. I expect more stringent budget constraints to be motivating to the auditor as they provide a goal for the auditor to achieve. I also expect budget constraints to induce feelings of pressure leading to the use of time-pressure adaptation strategies. When auditors have use of a decision aid, they take advantage of these motivational goals and/or use beneficial adaptive strategies. Overall, I find that auditor participants tend to be more accurate when identifying financial statement risks compared to business risks. Budget constraints have no effect on risk identification for financial or business risks; they also have no effect on financial risk assessments. On the other hand, business risk assessments are improved by implementing more stringent budget constraints, but only when a decision aid is also provided. Budget constraints can affect performance through a goal theory route or a time-pressure adaptation route. I investigate the paths through which budget constraints improve business risk assessments under decision aid use. I find that budget constraints directly affect performance, supporting a goal theory route. However, I do not find that budget constraints are mediated by perceived budget pressure as expected. Auditors appear to use a positive adaptive strategy to respond to perceived budget pressure, however perceived budget pressure is not induced by providing a more stringent budget.
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Influence of query based decision aids on decision making in electronic commerce /Pereira, Rex Eugene, January 1999 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 1999. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 292-305). Available also in a digital version from Dissertation Abstracts.
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