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Upland landscapes : what do people want, who wants it and can they have it all?Tinch, Dugald January 2009 (has links)
The objective of this thesis is to investigate the preferences of individuals for the management of upland landscapes in the UK. Environmental valuation techniques are becoming an increasingly important tool in the development of environmental management policy, however, they are not without their detractors. In particular a school of thought, developed from the work of Bentham, takes issue with the behavioural foundations of the dominant welfare economic doctrine which underpins many of the valuation techniques commonly adopted. They identify that heuristic rules, experience and memory can all play a role in the development of ‘value’ for a good. This thesis aims to investigate the roles of these, along with the role of association with an environmental good, in the development of value for upland landscapes using the Peak District National Park as a case study. This objective is developed in three parts. Part I introduces the topic, identifies the background of research against which this thesis is presented and introduces the case study. This part also attempts to identify how well the complex economy – ecology interactions in this landscape are understood by stakeholders. It shows that, given the complexities of the systems, there are key omissions in stakeholder knowledge and understanding. Part II uses Discrete Choice Experiments to analyse the impact on value of experience, memory, heuristics and association. A series of experiments are applied to the same landscape characteristics in order to achieve this. The results show that value can be impacted in a number of ways with implications for the development of future valuation studies. This thesis concludes with a discussion of the policy implications, limitations and future work associated with this research.
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Advisors and groups: essays in social decision makingMüller-Trede, Johannes 04 May 2012 (has links)
The three chapters of this thesis investigate social aspects of judgment and decision making. Chapter One analyses the consequences of making decisions based on predictions of future well-being, and the conditions under which advice can improve these decisions. It shows that an interaction between errors in affective forecasts and the choice process leads to suboptimal decisions and disappointment, and establishes conditions under which advice reduces these effects. The second chapter investigates the boundaries of the result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It reveals that the technique works only for specific kinds of questions, and people are reluctant to average their initial answers when asked for a final estimate. Finally, Chapter Three reviews experimental results regarding individual and small group behaviour in strategic decision tasks and provides a theoretical framework to analyse the observed differences. / Aquesta tesi investiga diferents aspectes socials de la presa de decisions. El primer capítol analitza les decisions preses en base a les prediccions del benestar futur, i en quines situacions els consells d’altres persones poden millorar aquestes decisions. Es mostra que una interacció entre el procés de l’elecció i les imperfeccions de les prediccions condueix a decisions subòptimes i a la decepció, i s’estableixen les condicions sota les quals els consells redueixen aquests efectes. El segon capítol investigaels casos en què les persones poden millorar les seves prediccions numèriques donant més d’una estimació i prenent-ne la mitjana. A base d’un experiment, es mostra que la tècnica funciona només amb determinats tipus de preguntes, i que les persones són averses a prendre mitjanes de les seves estimacions inicials quan es pregunta per una estimació final. L’últim capítol revisa els resultats experimentals referents a la presa de decisions estratègiques de la persona individual comparats amb els de la persona que forma part d’un grup reduït i proporciona un marc teòric en el que analitza les diferències que s’observen en el seu comportament
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