Universiẗat, Diss., 2002--Dortmund.

In current valuation and economics disciplines, it is a commonly held belief that financial crisis is over and a big threat to world economic system is inflation. While many assumptions of these claims are of certain significance indeed, this thesis proves a non-trivial chance of outright deflation. Author of this work also shows that attempts of governments and central banks aimed at avoiding deflationary scenarios ultimately cause slower growth and elevated variance in economic activity. Due to existence of such causality, a new variable "tau" entering into CAPM model's risk premium was developed as the original model had previously not captured for impacts of monetary and government policies. In order to quantify a probability and strength of deflationary forces in developed world, three distinct approaches were utilized -- quantitative assessment, historical comparisons, and a pure economic theory based reasoning. Value of variable tau was determined by regressing relationship between implied risk premium and changes in monetary policy while testing for different time lags. Results of the work point to a 10-20% chance of deflation in developed world. Extremely loose monetary policy worldwide than warrants augmenting additional 1-2% risk premium to current implied risk premium of US stock market. Although newly defined models would certainly need more work and refining, author believes that the augmented CAPM version does a good job capturing the "irrational exuberance" mentality attached to policies of major central banks around the world. The three year lead of model-based risk premium compared to the implied one is perceived as one more contribution to current valuation process and understanding of risk.

Since the end of October 2010, the Bank of Japan has been pursuing a new Asset Purchase Programme, which includes, among other things, direct intervention in the domestic stock market through the purchase of exchange-traded funds. This research study evaluated the impact of the Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchase programme on market returns using an event study methodology. An investigation into a sample of 33 intervention events in the Nikkei 400 exchangetraded fund and 303 intervention events in the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, found that the average abnormal one-day return is -1.36% for the Nikkei 400 exchange-traded fund and -1.39% for the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, while the average abnormal five-day return is -0.63% and -1.11% for each exchange-traded fund respectively. Due to the high volatility, statistically the returns are indistinguishable from zero. However, this study presents evidence that the Bank of Japan intervenes predominantly during large decreases in the market. Hence, there is suggestive evidence that the Bank of Japan’s policy is effective at reducing market losses, but is not extensive enough to significantly increase returns.

This thesis investigates the relationship between inflation and long term GDP/capita growth on the OECD countries from 1970–2014. Data is secondary collected from acknowledged organizations and institutes and consist of a paneldataframework. The study is conducted with a Log-Semilog-regression model analysis and the dependent variable in question isGDP/capita growth. The main focus of the study is the effects of the independent variable inflation on growth. Several independent explanatory variables are included to avoid bias and help determine the impact of inflation on growth. The empirical resultssuggest a positive effect of inflation on gdp/capita growthin most models. The findings are not in line with estimations of this study in regards to theory. The results could however be explained by otherwork on the subject and give rise to curiosity for further studies.

The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...

The main thesis of this paper is to identify and describe the common and different aspects of the monetary policies of Austria and Czechoslovakia in the years 1918-1929, as one of the possible determinants of post-war economic development of both countries. As the successor states to the Austro-Hungarian monarchy both countries faced the same currency problems, although Czechoslovakia was on the winning side and Austria on the losing side, which determined the economic conditions in both countries in their beginnings. To address monetary issues each country had a different approach, while for example Austria experienced post-war hyperinflation Czechoslovakia executed the first wave of deflation. Despite the successes of the Czechoslovak economy in the period under review, only by comparing them to Austria showed that against all odds the economic performance of Austria was better. One of the possible causes was a different implementation of monetary policy, which is the central theme of this paper. Although the two countries are once again "reunited" in the European Union, their mutual relations are still impeded by specific problems whose origins can also be traced to the interwar period.

Création ou destruction de monnaie sont des facteurs majeurs de variation de sa valeur. Il est essentiel de cerner d’où provient originellement cette valeur, puis de comprendre comment de tels mécanismes de création ou de destruction l’affecteront, et enfin de mesurer les conséquences de ces mécanismes en termes de création ou destruction cette fois de richesse, au sens où Adam Smith traitait de la Richesse des nations. Plusieurs écoles de pensée ont formulé des propositions divergentes en matière d’émission de monnaie, pour sa bonne régulation et dans une recherche de relation efficace avec les besoins économiques. La montée en puissance des monnaies fiduciaires et scripturales a exacerbé ces divergences depuis deux siècles. La démonétisation progressive de l’argent métal puis de l’or ont parallèlement octroyé aux politiques monétaires une liberté d’action mais également une responsabilité croissantes. Une analyse critique de ces politiques et doctrines monétaires, ouvrira dans un second temps sur des propositions de nouveaux mécanismes d’injection de monnaie. Avec pour objectif premier de maintenir une stabilité entre inflation et déflation. Un deuxième objectif étant un meilleur lissage de la croissance économique, atténuateur notamment des cycles Juglar. Un troisième, de cercle vertueux, où les émissions de monnaie parviennent à établir des conditions économiques favorables à leur propre reproduction future. Ces mécanismes de création de monnaie, articulés avec la croissance et la productivité, trouvant pour complément une destruction des « faux-droits » dans l’acception que leur donnait Jacques Rueff, ou du « faux-monnayage » selon la définition de Maurice Allais. / Creation and destruction of money are key factors to determine its value. Therefore, gaining a clear understanding of the origin of this value is of crucial importance. Then, understanding how this value will be altered by these creation or destruction mechanisms. And finally, measuring the consequences of these mechanisms for creation or destruction of wealth, as Adam Smith understands that term to be : An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Several schools of thought exist, as to what factor has to be taken into account in order to ensure economic effectiveness and to achieve proper regulation of these monetary phenomenons. The growing importance of fiat and scriptural money, and the demonetization of silver and of gold, have increased the monetary authorities’ room for manoeuvre, but also the weight of their responsibility. The analysis of these monetary policies will lead to proposals for improvements and for new mechanisms of money creation. With a first objective of price stability. With a second one of facilitating the smoothing of economic business cycles (Juglar cycles). With a third one of implementing a virtuous cycle, where money creation provides an environment favourable to future new money creation. These mechanisms of money creation are articulated with growth and productivity. As well as with a limitation of issuance of money, according to Maurice Allais and Jacques Rueff thought.

Monetary policy in Japan is in a luquidity trap under convential monetary policy. Main source of deflation and stagnation of japanese economy is endogenous credit crunch. BoJ is not able to influence price level and economy by zero interest rate policy. Main cause of credit crunch is demand for credit because of high leverage of all sectors in economy. Credit crunch support financial problems on the supply side of the credit. Diploma thesis propose to use expansion fiscal policy as a convenient tool for resolution of japanese deflation and great stagnation. Expansion fiscal policy is effecient to overcome credit crunch and support economy and demand inflation throught restructuralization of balance sheets. Work considering current world debt crisis argue that expansion fiscal policy is the best solution to overcome debt crise.

This dissertation describes the results of archaeological survey and excavationsundertaken on the Mesa el Chaparral in the county of Mina in Nuevo Leon, Mexicoduring 2001. Sixty-six previously undocumented archaeological sites were discovered onthe arid surface. Excavations found no intact subsurface deposits, but a wealth of surfacedata was collected. Subsequent analyses demonstrated a forager lifeway for the majorityof the Holocene human occupation of the region in a remarkably stable pattern.To understand sites found on the deflated modern surface necessitatedcontemplation of the basic theories and models used in hunter-gatherer research. Thisallowed for the construction of new diagrams designed to hypothesize fundamentalrelationships between general aspects of the lifeway including environmental factors, sitesize and visibility issues, and human mobility patterns. From some basic continuums,more detailed diagrams were created that allow understanding and prediction of humanbehavior based upon data found from artifacts and features. After testing their salience,the models were dynamically combined with the site data and ethnographic analogies toarrive at an understanding of the human lifeways represented by the recoveredarchaeological data. This provided a fascinating look into the day-to-day lives of thegeneralized mobile foragers of prehistoric northeastern Mexico.Included in the recovered data are hearth features, lithic debitage and artifacts,and basic site descriptions. Archaeological locations ranged from small with a singlefeature to over a square kilometer with over 100 features, all located on the surface wherethey are subject to wind deflation and water erosion. Most of the sites containeddiagnostic artifacts from the entire Holocene, further compounding the analyticcomplexity of the project. Understanding the context of the data and making use of themodels and ethnographic analogies, it was estimated that every site represented anoccupation by a small band of mobile forgers making generalized use of the resourcesavailable in the region. Making residential moves often allowed people to survive in theharsh environment. Few lifeway changes were noted prior to Spanish influence in theregion from the time the environment became arid at the end of the Pleistocene.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1972. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 286-302).