O principal objetivo desta Dissertação foi o de se definir uma metodologia de planejamento de transportes que fosse sintetizada e menos onerosa que a do processo tradicional e, principalmente, que permitisse dispensar a pesquisa domiciliar, atividade demorada, trabalhosa e cara. O trabalho consistiu de uma análise superficial de diversos trabalhos existentes, elegendo quatro deles para uma análise mais detalhada, o que permitiu definir a metodologia proposta. O método baseia-se na determinação de produções e atrações de viagens a partir do conhecimento do número de unidades de uso de solos (residências, lojas, escritórios, indústrias, etc.) existentes na área de estudo, com suas respectivas características, aplicando-se-lhes taxas transferidas de outros estudos. As produções e atrações de viagens são distribuídas utilizando-se o modelo gravitacional, com parâmetros da função impedância transferidos de outros estudos. A divisão modal e a alocação de tráfego seguem o padrão tradicional, tendo sido indicada a utilização de programas de computador para a realização de alocação de equilíbrio. Segue o modelo de quatro etapas, onde a diferença fundamental está no fato de que, por não se dispor de dados completos, por causa da não realização das entrevistas de O/D domiciliares, são realizados diversos procedimentos de ajustes com o objetivo de se verificar o grau de compatibilidade das taxas transferidas utilizadas. O trabalho restringiu-se à alocação de tráfego na rede viária para o ano base, e à comparação com o fluxo observado, verificando-se que o processo conduz a um resultado aceitável. / The main aim of this work was the definition of a transportation planning methodology that was synthesized and less expensive than the one presented by the traditional process, and, more than this, which could be done without household research. A superficial analysis of several works was conducted, and four of them were chosen for a more detailed analysis, which allowed to define the proposed methodology. The method is based on the determination of trip production and trip attraction once the number of houses, shops, offices, industries, etc. present in the area of study is known, as well as their respective characteristics, and taxes from other studies were used. The trip distribution was performed using the gravitational model, applying parameters of the impedance function transferred from other studies. The modal split and the traffic assignment follow the traditional standard and the use of computational programs to perform the equilibrium assignment has been indicated. It follows the four steps model, where the fundamental difference is that, because complete data were not available, once household O/D interviews were not performed, several adjusting procedures were performed, to verify the degree of compatibility of the used transferred taxes. The work is limited to traffic assignment in the road network for the base year, and to the comparison with the observed flow, and it was verified that the process leads to an acceptable result.

Transportation infrastructure has long been recognized as the sine qua non of rapid economic development. As a predominantly agrarian economy with a vast and growing population spread over an extensive mass of land, India presents a veritable case of this truism, sadly by the lack of it. Notwithstanding the vagaries of development in other sectors, the transport sector in India, ironically, has received scant attention over five decades of the planning era, which has lent itself to lop-sided development in favour of the railways. Though deregulation and attendant economic reforms have augmented transport services by air and road in the last decade, the inadequacy of transport infrastructure and the acute paucity of resources to fulfil the provision of the same have been the bane of problems confronting the government. Privatization as a solution to circumvent resource constraints has raised new issues of social and environmental equity, which transcends the immediate concerns of infrastructure development. As is evident, though the solutions to the problems of the transport sector are multifarious, they emphasize the imperative need for rational and integrated transport planning and policy. A cursory look at the problems plaguing this sector also reveals that the issues and concerns cannot be dealt with in its entirety. Against this background, we confine ourselves to the study of the passenger transport sector and attempt to address an interesting and increasingly apparent phenomenon of travel behaviour, namely intermodal choice and modal substitution. The genesis of this study was an earlier work done by a research team at the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS), NAL, where in, a general methodology to describe the growth of the transport sector in India was developed in terms of appropriate mathematical models. Significantly most of the variables describing demand, supply and performance were found to trend exponentially. However, the models failed to reflect the trends in intermodal substitution and its significance in evaluating future transport demand. For example, the development or availability of alternative means like rail or personalized vehicles may influence the demand for bus transport. Similarly demand for air transport may be a function of comparative advantages presented by alternatives like upper class rail travel. This phenomenon is observed to be pronounced on short-haul routes characterizing inter-city travel, where such modes are extremely competitive. We consider a regional network of high-density routes in southern India, as a representation of several such transport networks across the country, to study this phenomenon and its implications for future policy. The primary objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a set of econometric models that would adequately measure the extent of intermodal substitution in passenger transport on short-haul routes (inter-city travel) and, critically evaluate the factors that affect travel choice in a multimodal environment. Toward this, the study is divided into three parts. Part one focuses on understanding broad trends in air, rail and road travel, for the routes in consideration. Suitable regressions are estimated to measure the effect of critical transport variables on route-wise travel demand. The coefficients are estimated separately for two categories of travel - First Class and Second Class. Part two of the study is based on data collected from individual travel surveys on the route network. A simplified questionnaire was used for this purpose. We use the traditional logit framework to estimate choice probabilities based on user perceptions about factors affecting their choices. As in the previous case, we estimate the logits for both classes of travel, viz. First Class and Second Class, under the equal substitutability assumption. We also estimate the logits for the general case for the sake of comparison, though not practicable. Part three involves a case-study of an alternative high-speed rail link for one of the routes in the network having the highest traffic density, to illustrate its effect on travel choice in a multimodal transport network. We also demonstrate the feasibility of the project using a benefit-cost approach. From the results, it is observed that substitution is predominantly from air to rail for "first-class" travel, and from rail to road for "second-class" travel. Besides, it is also observed that travel choice is largely influenced by non-price (fare) considerations. The value of travel time is estimated for both categories of travel, using the trade-off method and is found to be significantly different. All regressions show a high and the coefficients are significant at the 5% level. The logit analysis validates the earlier conclusion that non-price (fare) factors influence the demand for different modes. It is found that users attach considerable importance to comfort and convenience, including time of travel, while making travel choices. It is also observed that the logits vary significantly when factors are grouped, and further, between categories of travel In the case of the high-speed link, we estimate that there will be a significant shift in travel demand from air to rail and also from road to rail, given substantial travel time savings. The estimates of passenger revenue and decongestion benefits also provide a strong rationale for the implementation of the project. Sources of data include published and unpublished records of Indian Airlines, Indian Railways and State Road Transport Undertakings (SRTUs) on air, rail and road travel respectively. Data on population and other macroeconomic variables were obtained from census records and similar statistical publications. An important feature of this study is its attempt to bridge the macro and micro policy environments. It is one of the first attempts to study the dynamics of travel demand and choice behaviour in a multimodal regional transport network in India. Unlike previous studies, it transcends the realm of urban transport economics and extends its scope to the study of regional transport characteristics, where inter-city passenger travel has undergone significant changes both in environment and behaviour in the last decade. The entire study has been conceptualized in a system dynamics framework to describe its relevance to overall transport planning. It is believed that such an exercise would be a precursor for the development of a full-fledged macroeconomic model of the transport sector in India.

O principal objetivo desta Dissertação foi o de se definir uma metodologia de planejamento de transportes que fosse sintetizada e menos onerosa que a do processo tradicional e, principalmente, que permitisse dispensar a pesquisa domiciliar, atividade demorada, trabalhosa e cara. O trabalho consistiu de uma análise superficial de diversos trabalhos existentes, elegendo quatro deles para uma análise mais detalhada, o que permitiu definir a metodologia proposta. O método baseia-se na determinação de produções e atrações de viagens a partir do conhecimento do número de unidades de uso de solos (residências, lojas, escritórios, indústrias, etc.) existentes na área de estudo, com suas respectivas características, aplicando-se-lhes taxas transferidas de outros estudos. As produções e atrações de viagens são distribuídas utilizando-se o modelo gravitacional, com parâmetros da função impedância transferidos de outros estudos. A divisão modal e a alocação de tráfego seguem o padrão tradicional, tendo sido indicada a utilização de programas de computador para a realização de alocação de equilíbrio. Segue o modelo de quatro etapas, onde a diferença fundamental está no fato de que, por não se dispor de dados completos, por causa da não realização das entrevistas de O/D domiciliares, são realizados diversos procedimentos de ajustes com o objetivo de se verificar o grau de compatibilidade das taxas transferidas utilizadas. O trabalho restringiu-se à alocação de tráfego na rede viária para o ano base, e à comparação com o fluxo observado, verificando-se que o processo conduz a um resultado aceitável. / The main aim of this work was the definition of a transportation planning methodology that was synthesized and less expensive than the one presented by the traditional process, and, more than this, which could be done without household research. A superficial analysis of several works was conducted, and four of them were chosen for a more detailed analysis, which allowed to define the proposed methodology. The method is based on the determination of trip production and trip attraction once the number of houses, shops, offices, industries, etc. present in the area of study is known, as well as their respective characteristics, and taxes from other studies were used. The trip distribution was performed using the gravitational model, applying parameters of the impedance function transferred from other studies. The modal split and the traffic assignment follow the traditional standard and the use of computational programs to perform the equilibrium assignment has been indicated. It follows the four steps model, where the fundamental difference is that, because complete data were not available, once household O/D interviews were not performed, several adjusting procedures were performed, to verify the degree of compatibility of the used transferred taxes. The work is limited to traffic assignment in the road network for the base year, and to the comparison with the observed flow, and it was verified that the process leads to an acceptable result.

O presente trabalho pretende estudar a disposição a pagar do consumidor brasileiro por produtos com maior eficiência energética. Entender o quanto o consumidor está disposto a pagar por um ganho de eficiência pode contribuir na elaboração de políticas públicas para o setor elétrico, e na criação de incentivos à indústria para produção e investimentos neste tipo de tecnologia. O trabalho utiliza-se de uma pesquisa de campo sobre posse de equipamentos e hábitos de uso, realizada pela Eletrobrás/Procel em 2005. A metodologia empregada segue a linha de trabalhos já realizados em outros países, a exemplo dos estudos realizados por Dubin e McFadden (1984) e Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006). Os resultados encontrados apontam para uma subestimação dos consumidores quanto à avaliação da economia proporcionada por produtos mais eficientes. Sendo assim, abre-se espaço para campanhas de conscientização e valorização dessas tecnologias ou incentivos monetários para consumo dos mesmos. / The focus of this research is to investigate the Brazilian consumer\'s willingness to pay for products with more energy efficiency. Measuring how much the consumer is willing to pay could provide us with good insights that may help in discussing politics regarding the electric sector, plus it may guide politics in taking actions and decisions on incentives in order to promote this kind of more efficient technological products. This investigation is based on a field research regarding the possess of appliances and their uses, consisting of 4310 household questionnaires. The methodology applied follows previous work on this field and similar studies made for other countries. Examples are Dubin e McFadden (1984) for space and water heating in the USA and Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006) for washing machines in the Switzerland. The results make clear an underestimation of the monetary economy due to the use of more efficient products. Therefore, there\'s an opportunity for the government to motivate and promote this kind of technology, either through advertising for and awareness of the general population, or through subsides to the industry to produce more efficient products or monetary incentives for the their purchases.

Neste trabalho realiza-se uma análise individual e comparativa de três modelos de demanda por transporte de grãos: de Oferta, de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade, e da Rede Ferroviária Federal S/A. O estudo foi desenvolvido com base num conjunto de dados coletados no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. Esse conjunto contém dados referentes ao período de 1974 a 1994, e foi dividido em duas partes: a primeira, de 1974 a 1988, usada na calibração dos modelos, e a segunda, de 1989 a 1994, na verificação de desempenho dos modelos. A produção estimada para o segundo período foi comparada com a produção observada no mesmo período. A precisão dos modelos foi verificada para curto e longo prazos, e para dois níveis de agregação. Concluiu-se que tanto o modelo de Oferta como o modelo da RFFSA são apropriados para a previsão de curto prazo. E que o modelo de Oferta é melhor do que o de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade para a projeção de produção em nível agregado, e vice-versa. / This work carries out an individual and comparative analysis o f three grain transportation demand models: Supply model, Area and Productivity model and RFFSA (Federal Railway) model. The study was developed based on the data set collected in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul. This set contains data related to the period trom 1974 to 1994. It was divided into two periods, the first from 1974 to 1988, used to calibrate the models, and the second, from 1989 to 1994, used to verify the performance of the models. The production estimated for second period was compared to the observed production. The accuracy of the models was verified for short and long terms, and for two levels of aggregation. lt was concluded that both Supply and RFFSA models are appropriate to the short term forecasting, and that the Area and Productivity model may be used for the long term. It was also concluded that the Supply model is better than Area and Productivity model for estimating production at the aggregate level, and vice-versa.

Esta dissertação teve como objetivo principal investigar a influência, no comportamento de escolha de linha de passageiros de ônibus, de painéis eletrônicos em pontos de parada com informação em tempo real sobre previsões para passagem dos veículos. Para a coleta de dados, um experimento de escolha declarada com desenho eficiente foi aplicado a uma amostra de 1179 entrevistados residentes na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) e pertencentes à comunidade da Universidade de São Paulo. Em cada situação de escolha foram apresentadas duas linhas diferentes de ônibus que chegariam ao mesmo destino, mas não passavam pelo mesmo ponto, de modo que a escolha a ser feita era entre uma ou outra combinação de linha e ponto. Adicionalmente, apenas um dos pontos tinha painel eletrônico. As alternativas também se diferenciavam pelos seguintes atributos: intervalo de tempo programado para a passagem de veículos consecutivos da mesma linha; possível atraso em relação ao intervalo programado; tempo de viagem dentro do veículo até o destino; ocupação do veículo quando chega ao ponto; e valor da tarifa. Na amostra predominaram jovens com até 25 anos (64% da amostra), homens (60%), usuários frequentes de ônibus (80%), estudantes (81%) e entrevistados com pelo menos um automóvel no domicílio (76%). A partir das respostas ao experimento foram estimados modelos de escolha discreta Mixed Logit Panel, de modo a mensurar a importância relativa de cada atributo na decisão e também medir a variabilidade das preferências entre os entrevistados. Os resultados indicam que a presença do painel no ponto de ônibus tem, sim, influência sobre a escolha da linha. Os entrevistados estariam dispostos a pagar em média, pela presença de painel, R$0,12 adicionais, equivalentes a 5 minutos de viagem. Verificou-se também que a existência de painel no ponto diminui a desutilidade marginal da espera, e isto ocorre com mais intensidade quando ela está associada ao atraso do que quando está associada ao intervalo programado entre veículos. O valor médio do tempo de viagem foi relativamente baixo: R$1,44/hora, provavelmente devido à composição socioeconômica da amostra, com elevada proporção de estudantes. No entanto, observou-se que o comportamento de escolha de linha é bastante afetado pelas características socioeconômicas e de uso de ônibus dos entrevistados, podendo o valor do tempo chegar a R$17,00/hora, e a disposição a pagar pelo painel a R$0,77. Acredita-se que os resultados desta pesquisa permitem ampliar o entendimento do comportamento de escolha de linha, ao incorporar a presença de painel no ponto como elemento adicional da decisão. / The main objective of this research is to investigate the influence on bus route choice behavior of variable message signs (VMS) displaying real time predictions of bus arrival at stops. A stated choice survey was conducted, using an efficient design experiment. Sampled individuals were asked to answer to eight choice situations, each presenting two bus routes going to the same destination but with different itineraries and boarding stops. The choice was made between two combinations of bus route and boarding stop; only one of the stops had VMS. The other attributes characterizing alternatives were: bus route headway, (possible) delay at arriving at the stop, travel time until destination, level of vehicle crowdedness when arriving at the boarding stop, and fare. Data were collected from 1179 individuals, mostly students, professors and employees of the University of São Paulo, and all of them residents of the São Paulo Metropolitan Area. The typical interviewee was 25 years old or younger (64% of the sample), male (60%), a frequent bus user (80%), student (81%) and had at least one car in his household. Mixed logit panel discrete choice models were estimated to analyze the data, capturing both the relative importance of each attribute in the decision process and systematic taste variation among individuals. Results show that VMS displaying predictions of bus arrival at stops do influence bus route choice behavior. The estimated average willingness to pay for a bus stop to have a VMS was R$0.12, which corresponds to 5 minutes of travel time. It was also observed that the marginal disutility of waiting time decreases when there is a VMS at the stop. Disutility of waiting due to delays also decreases (more intensively) with the VMS. The average value of travel time was relatively low, compared to expectations: R$1.44/hour, probably due to the socioeconomic profile of the sample, particularly the high proportion of students. Nevertheless, frequency of bus use and socioeconomic characteristics significantly affect route choice behavior; the value of travel time, for instance, may reach R$17/hour, while willingness to pay for a VMS in a stop may become R$0.77. The results indicate that incorporating the VMS as an additional component of the decision, allows for a better understanding of bus route choice behavior.

Neste trabalho realiza-se uma análise individual e comparativa de três modelos de demanda por transporte de grãos: de Oferta, de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade, e da Rede Ferroviária Federal S/A. O estudo foi desenvolvido com base num conjunto de dados coletados no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. Esse conjunto contém dados referentes ao período de 1974 a 1994, e foi dividido em duas partes: a primeira, de 1974 a 1988, usada na calibração dos modelos, e a segunda, de 1989 a 1994, na verificação de desempenho dos modelos. A produção estimada para o segundo período foi comparada com a produção observada no mesmo período. A precisão dos modelos foi verificada para curto e longo prazos, e para dois níveis de agregação. Concluiu-se que tanto o modelo de Oferta como o modelo da RFFSA são apropriados para a previsão de curto prazo. E que o modelo de Oferta é melhor do que o de Incorporação de área e aumento de produtividade para a projeção de produção em nível agregado, e vice-versa. / This work carries out an individual and comparative analysis o f three grain transportation demand models: Supply model, Area and Productivity model and RFFSA (Federal Railway) model. The study was developed based on the data set collected in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul. This set contains data related to the period trom 1974 to 1994. It was divided into two periods, the first from 1974 to 1988, used to calibrate the models, and the second, from 1989 to 1994, used to verify the performance of the models. The production estimated for second period was compared to the observed production. The accuracy of the models was verified for short and long terms, and for two levels of aggregation. lt was concluded that both Supply and RFFSA models are appropriate to the short term forecasting, and that the Area and Productivity model may be used for the long term. It was also concluded that the Supply model is better than Area and Productivity model for estimating production at the aggregate level, and vice-versa.

Modeling travel demand by time of day is gaining increasing attention in travel demand forecasting practice. This is because time of day choice has important implications for mode choice and for quantifying potential modal and time of day shifts in response to traffic congestion and peak period travel demand management strategies. In this context, understanding the causal relationship between time of day (departure time) choice and mode choice behavior would be useful in the development of time of day based travel demand modeling systems both within the four-step modeling paradigm and within newer tour-based and activity-based microsimulation paradigms. This thesis investigates the relationship between departure time choice and mode choice for non-work trips as work trips tend to be constrained with respect to time of day choice. Two alternative causal structures are considered in this thesis: one structure in which departure time choice is determined first and mode choice is subsequently influenced by departure time choice and a second structure in which mode choice is determined first and affects departure time choice. These two causal structures are analyzed in a recursive bivariate probit modeling framework that allows random error covariance. The estimation is performed separately for worker and non-worker samples drawn from the 1999 Southeast Florida Regional Household Travel Survey. For workers, model estimation results show that the causal structure in which departure time choice precedes mode choice performs significantly better. For non-workers, the reverse causal relationship in which mode choice precedes departure time choice is found to be a more suitable joint modeling structure. These two findings can be reasonably explained from a travel behavior perspective and have important implications for advanced travel demand model development and application.

To assess the losses associated with future earthquakes, seismic vulnerability functions are commonly used to correlate the damage or loss of a structure to the level of seismic intensity. A common procedure in seismic vulnerability assessment is to estimate the seismic fragility, which is defined as the conditional probability that a structure fails to meet the specific performance level for given level of seismic intensity. This dissertation proposes a methodology to estimate the fragility of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with two-column bents subject to seismic excitation. Seismic fragility functions are first developed for the RC bridges with two-column bents. All available information from science/engineering laws, numerical analysis, laboratory experiments, and field measurements has been used to construct the proper form of the fragility functions. The fragility functions are formulated, at the individual column, bent, and bridge levels, in terms of the spectral acceleration and the ratio between the peak ground velocity and the peak ground acceleration. The developed fragility functions properly account for the prevailing uncertainties in fragility estimation. The probabilistic capacity and demand models are then combined with the probabilistic models for chloride-induced corrosion and the time-dependent corrosion rate. The fragility estimates for corroded RC bridges incorporates the uncertainties in the parameters of capacity and demand models, and the inexactness (or model error) in modeling the material deterioration, structural capacity, and seismic demands. The proposed methodology is illustrated by developing the fragility functions for an example RC bridge with 11 two-column bents representing current construction in California. The developed fragility functions provide valuable information to allocate and spend available funds for the design, maintenance, and retrofitting of structures and networks. This study regarding the vulnerability of corroding RC bridges will be of direct value to those making decisions about the condition assessment, residual life, and the ability of lifeline structures to withstand future seismic demands.

O presente trabalho pretende estudar a disposição a pagar do consumidor brasileiro por produtos com maior eficiência energética. Entender o quanto o consumidor está disposto a pagar por um ganho de eficiência pode contribuir na elaboração de políticas públicas para o setor elétrico, e na criação de incentivos à indústria para produção e investimentos neste tipo de tecnologia. O trabalho utiliza-se de uma pesquisa de campo sobre posse de equipamentos e hábitos de uso, realizada pela Eletrobrás/Procel em 2005. A metodologia empregada segue a linha de trabalhos já realizados em outros países, a exemplo dos estudos realizados por Dubin e McFadden (1984) e Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006). Os resultados encontrados apontam para uma subestimação dos consumidores quanto à avaliação da economia proporcionada por produtos mais eficientes. Sendo assim, abre-se espaço para campanhas de conscientização e valorização dessas tecnologias ou incentivos monetários para consumo dos mesmos. / The focus of this research is to investigate the Brazilian consumer\'s willingness to pay for products with more energy efficiency. Measuring how much the consumer is willing to pay could provide us with good insights that may help in discussing politics regarding the electric sector, plus it may guide politics in taking actions and decisions on incentives in order to promote this kind of more efficient technological products. This investigation is based on a field research regarding the possess of appliances and their uses, consisting of 4310 household questionnaires. The methodology applied follows previous work on this field and similar studies made for other countries. Examples are Dubin e McFadden (1984) for space and water heating in the USA and Sammer e Wüstenhagen (2006) for washing machines in the Switzerland. The results make clear an underestimation of the monetary economy due to the use of more efficient products. Therefore, there\'s an opportunity for the government to motivate and promote this kind of technology, either through advertising for and awareness of the general population, or through subsides to the industry to produce more efficient products or monetary incentives for the their purchases.