Aside from the introduction and conclusion, this thesis comprises four core chapters: The first chapter investigates the presence of endogenous peer effects in the adoption of formal property rights. Using data from a unique land titling experiment held in an unplanned settlement in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. I show a strong, positive impact of neighbour adoption on the household’s choice to purchase a land title. I also show that this relationship holds in a separate, identical experiment held a year later in a nearby community, as well as in administrative data for approximately 45,000 land parcels in the same city. I also discuss possible channels, including the possibility of complementarities in the reduction in expropriation risk. The second chapter examines the relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and the demand for formal land tenure. Using a unique census of two highly fractionalised settle- ments in Dar es Salaam, I show that households located near coethnics are significantly less likely to purchase a limited form of land tenure recently offered by the government. I attempt to address one of the chief concerns, endogenous sorting of households, by con- ditioning on a households choice of neighbors upon arrival in the neighborhood. These results suggest that close-knit ethnic groups may be less likely to accept state-provided goods if they can generate reasonable substitutes. The third chapter is a short chapter which presents results from a recent policy experi- ment in Tanzania where formal land titles were provided to informal settlers at randomised prices. Land owners were also randomly assigned conditional discounts, which could only be applied if a woman was designated as owner or co-owner of the land in question. Results show that conditionality has no adverse effects on demand for land titles, yet drastically increases the probability a woman is included. We discuss the implications of these results for the expected bargaining power impacts of the intervention. The final chapter investigates birth order effects on both anthropometric and edu- cation outcomes in a longitudinal survey of children from the Philippines. Birth order effects are present early in life for both outcomes, but attenuate as children approach adulthood. There is also evidence for nonlinear birth order effects, with both firstborn and lastborn children holding an advantage over middleborn children. These results are at odds with prevalent theories of birth order which predict lasting and monotonic differences in outcomes across children.

Accounting for output per worker differences across countries has been an ongoing topic of research in economics. This thesis expands upon standard approaches by allowing for technological heterogeneity and exploiting firm and worker level data to determine the microeconomic sources of variation in both productivity and earnings. An intercontinental comparison using production functions for the Ghanaian and South Korean manufacturing sectors in Chapter 2 finds, in contrast to the conclusions of much of the macroeconomic literature, that there is no difference in total factor productivity (TFP). The microeconomic sources of the difference in value added per worker lie within the technology of firms, which is defined as the way in which inputs are used. Two important dimensions of this difference are the larger role of material inputs and the much lower rate of return to schooling in Ghana. In Chapter 3 a more general specification investigates intra-African variation in production, which is much smaller than the intercontinental difference. The pattern of cross-country heterogeneity is that, as GDP per capita rises, the relative input of materials falls, those of capital and labour rise and the returns to education increase. Differences in TFP are limited. Possible sources of the low returns to schooling in Ghana are investigated in Chapter 4 using earnings and production functions. Conditional upon selection into occupations, the only group of workers for whom education appreciably increases earnings are those employed in skilled jobs with more than ten years of education. The evidence is consistent with a lack of technological sophistication being the source of these low returns. Investment in new production processes by firms will increase the return to education and raise incomes and output. Reducing the share of intermediate inputs in production is key to the transition from low to high productivity activities. Technology is the critical element that can explain the performance of manufacturing firms across countries.

This thesis consists of five stand-alone chapters empirically evaluating questions relating to the life cycle of natural resource extraction. We use three different data sets to shed light on the local impacts of natural resource booms and busts. In chapter 2 to 4 we use the household budget survey of Kazakhstan to explore the impacts of the oil boom on the local population. In the second chapter, we explore the distributional effects of the oil boom and show that average household income increased and income inequality decreased. In the third chapter we study how the increase in average income was perceived by the local population and find that households' satisfaction with income decreased. In the fourth chapter we study how the boom affected households' expenditure and show that the likelihood that households pay tuition fees for tertiary education increased. In chapter 5, we explore the long-term impacts of a negative labour demand shock following the coal mine closures in the UK. To do this we construct a new data set containing the location of all active coal mines since 1981 and link it to the UK census. We find that the dramatic lay off of miners since 1981 was associated with a persistent reduction in female labour force participation in the affected districts. In chapter 6, we study the determinants of drilling costs and their impact on the real price of oil using a new global data set on the number of exploration wells drilled and costs of drilling. To do this, we propose a structural model of the upstream sector in the oil and gas industry. The model allows us to decompose the variation in the reduced form errors of the estimated VAR into three structural shocks, and estimate the dynamic responses of the variables in the system to these shocks. We confirm that the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry is subject to increasing costs. But we do not find that the real oil price is permanently affected by shocks to costs of drilling.

This thesis presents three core chapters examining different aspects of the relationship between natural resources and economic development. While addressing different questions they share several features in common: a concern with causal inference; overcoming the challenges of endogeneity between resource abundance and other characteristics of developing countries; and the use of new and novel datasets with spatially identified units of analysis. The work contributes to a rich and growing empirical literature seeking to deepen our understanding of the underlying mechanisms affecting the fortunes of resource-abundant countries. In the introductory chapter I discuss the extensive literature on this topic and in particular focus on the new generation of well-identified within-country studies, seeking to understand the empirical relationship between resources and economic development. Countries typically welcome the news of a resource discovery with joy and indeed, resource discoveries hold great economic potential. But what determines whether a country is resource rich or not? Is it more than just a chance finding, or good geology? In Chapter 2, entitled Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration I present an investigation into this question. I examine the relationship between governance and choices of where to drill for oil. This work utilises a new dataset on exploration wells and looks at the distribution of drilling close to national borders. This allows me to identify estimates for the effect of differences in governance between neighbours. Two times out of three, investors choose to drill on the side of borders that are better governed, all other things being equal. This suggests that resource-wealth itself may be contingent on factors beyond geology, and indeed may be endogenous to the process of development. In Chapter 3, entitled The Local Effects of Resource Extraction, I turn my attention to the local economic consequences of industrial mining in Indonesia. I present a simple three-sector general equilibrium model to generate predictions for the local labour market, akin to the Corden-Neary Dutch disease model of the macroeconomy. I test the predicted effects in response to an exogenous resource sector shock by looking at mine opening or mine expansion events across three hundred mines. I test the predictions of the model, first by estimating the economic footprint from industrial mining; found to be an average of fifteen kilometre radius. I then examine the response of reported labour market activity from households surveyed in nearby communities. Here I find no evidence for a shift of local labour into the mining sector. I do find however a notable movement of labour from the traded sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) to the non-traded service sector, with a strong effect for foreign-owned mines versus domestic ones. Chapter 4, entitled Disentangling the Effects of Resource Extraction: Local Government and Investment Multipliers, examines the oil and gas boom in Indonesia from 1999-2009. Here I deploy a variety of identification strategies to attempt to disentangle the regional effects of the boom, measured in terms of district GDP. I estimate effects arising from transfers of revenue to local government. Using an instrumental variable approach I isolate the fiscal channel from resource projects. I find a positive and significant effect of increased local government revenues on district GDP over the boom decade. I then examine the spillovers from resource projects, isolating them from fiscal transfers. For districts neighbouring resource rich districts I find evidence for a modest positive effect arising from project investments, rather than fiscal transfers. In Chapter 5 I present concluding thoughts and discuss a future research agenda. I also summarise the burgeoning landscape of resource data available for within country and spatially identified studies and offer some thoughts on how this might evolve.

This thesis employs two new approaches to explain some of the important debates in two key economic fields: labour market economics and macroeconomic studies related to current account imbalances. Chapter 1, Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 begin a new strand of research by introducing the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution to describe unobserved heterogeneity in the labour market. The NIG distribution can be represented as a normal variance-mean mixture with the inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution as the mixing distribution. A 0.01% subsample of the 1980 US Census, comprising all men between 18 and 65 who are in the labour force, as well as a comparable sample from Ghana, is used to show that the NIG distribution provides a better fit of the log earnings function than the normal distribution. The prediction of right skewness of the log earnings distribution arising from the log normal skill Roy selection model is rejected in favour of left skewness. The thesis then extends the model to describe the distribution of log earnings conditioned on education. The same two datasets (US males and Ghanaian males) are used for the empirical analysis. We find that, once the unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the return to education is almost flat for lower levels of education in Ghana, and then increases for education levels greater than ten years. One of the key differences between the two datasets is that skewness and unobserved heterogeneity is a function of education for Ghana but not for the US. The NIG framework is found to be a useful tool to model this heterogeneity. Chapter 4 uses a model that allows for a rich structure of age effects similar to those predicted by the life cycle theories to argue that the demographic shifts are partly responsible for the sustained rise in the US current account deficit and the rapid increase in China's current account surplus in the last decade. However, demographics do not have an impact on the long run equilibrium or level of current accounts. Rather, they are important determinants of the short run adjustment of current accounts to their equilibrium levels. In the next twenty years, the demographic shifts are likely to push towards further current account positive adjustments in China and current account negative adjustments in the US. Developing the infrastructure, financial markets, policy tools and regulatory settings to be able to cope with the excess capital flow remains an urgent task.

Rural inhabitants of developing countries face extraordinarily risky environments, and decision-making under risk has crucial implications for the welfare of the rural poor. Therefore, obtaining a better understanding of the behaviour under risk of low-income populations is a vital step in the comprehension of human behaviour, and is important for effective policy design and evaluation, as well as for shedding light on production, investment and technology adoption decisions. In Chapter One, I analyze data collected from a laboratory experiment involving poor subjects in rural Ethiopia, in order to determine which decision models (and corresponding risk preferences) best describe the decision-making under risk of inhabitants. I find that expected utility theory (EUT) does not provide a good overall description of the decisions made by participants in the experiment; instead, there is evidence of probability weighting and loss aversion, implying that rank-dependent and reference-dependent choice models are more likely to represent the true latent decision-making process of subjects. In Chapter Two, I analyze combined experimental and survey data from rural Ethiopia in order to evaluate the determinants of risk preferences as well as assess the degree of asset integration in experimental decisions. Analyzing both EUT and non-EUT decision models and using an instrumental variable strategy, I find that household wealth negatively affects both risk aversion and loss aversion, but independent background risk has no effect on risk preferences. Further, I find evidence of narrow framing, as opposed to asset integration, suggesting that participants make decisions in the experiment in isolation from outside wealth. In Chapter Three, I analyze experimental data from Brazil to evaluate whether subjects understand decision problems that use the complex Multiple Price List (MPL) elicitation procedure, and to determine which decision models best describe observed choices. I find that the MPL decision problems of the experiment enable a finer characterization of risk preferences as compared to Ordered Lottery Selection problems (used in the Ethiopian experiment). However, I find that a significant fraction of choice patterns in the MPL problems are intransitive, and the evidence indicates that subjects did not properly understand the decision problems and thus observed choices do not reveal true risk preferences. Therefore, the relatively complex MPL procedure may not be suitable for experiments conducted with poorly-educated subjects in developing country settings. Chapter Four presents a theory outlining the relationship between rational demand for index insurance – for which the net transfer between insurer and policyholders depends only on a publicly verifiable index – and wealth. Further, the validity of this theory is tested using the experimental data from Ethiopia. In line with the theoretical model presented, due to basis risk and actuarially unfair premiums, demand for index insurance is hump-shaped – first increasing then decreasing – in wealth. The results indicate that the low take-up of this product observed among the poorest (and most risk averse) individuals in recent field studies may result from rational choice rather than credit constraints or poor decision-making.

Discourse for the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Development Planning) at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, / A definition of development includes improving living conditions and the quality of life. There is an interrelationship between health and social and economic development. "Health Leads to and at the same time is dependant on a progressive improvement in conditions and quality of life". (World Health Organisation). Therefore a dIscussion on health has to take into account the socio-economic and political context. In assessing the health profile of the homeland populations one finds them to be the least healthy. The problem is that the level of health of the rural population is low and the health care situation follows that of a developing society, where poverty-related diseases and infant mortality rates are high and life expectancies are unacceptably low. The rationale of this discourse is to express the need of action by governments, and health Bnd development workers, to protect and promote health. The aim is to examine the primary health care approach in Q sample area and see how it can be used to achieve an acceptable level of health. Background on the state of health will be addressed. The health services under apartheid is discussed in the first section, with attention given to statistical information and health indicators. / AC2017

Este texto faz uma re-leitura do modelo dual proposto por Lewis em 1954 (1) adicionando considerações sobre a competição entre firmas, o progresso tecnológico e sobre alguns outros elementos do comportamento mercado de trabalho (mobilidade, qualificação e dinâmica salarial). O texto tem como objetivo é propor elementos à serem incorporados a dinâmica original, de forma a tentar entender se, em uma dinâmica de desenvolvimento como esta, existe possibilidade de que excessos de oferta de mão-de-obra persistam, resistindo a acumulação de capital. / This dissertation reviews the dual economy model presented by Lewis in 1954 (1), adding to the discussion aspects about the competitive dynamics between firms, technological progress, and other elements of the labor market (labor mobility, qualification and wage dynamics). Its goal is to propose new elements that could, once incorporated into the original model, explain the possibility of a persistent labor surplus (a surplus that would be resistant to the accumulation process).

Esta tese apresenta três ensaios empíricos sobre a relação entre comércio internacional e crescimento, utilizando modelos empíricos não lineares. No primeiro ensaio, os autores propõem o modelo MR-STVEC (Multiple Regime Smooth Transition VEC), para uma amostra de quatro países desenvolvidos (Estados Unidos, Canadá, Japão e Alemanha), na perspectiva de avaliar de que modo as exportações influenciam a produtividade total dos fatores (PFT). Os resultados indicam que as exportações possuem um mecanismo de reverter possíveis choques negativos de produtividade. Adicionalmente, para o Canadá e Alemanha, quando há um movimento de ascensão da produtividade, proveniente de um eventual choque positivo, as exportações também agem, mas de modo a restringi-lo. O segundo ensaio verifica a relação de causalidade entre variáveis de comércio internacional (exportações e importações) e a taxa de crescimento do produto, aqui mensurado pela produção industrial. Neste caso, a amostra é composta de vinte nações com diferentes níveis de renda. Uma abordagem empírica alternativa, denominada entropia de transferência (ET), é aplicada, com a vantagem de não assumir a priori qualquer tipo de especificação paramétrica. Os resultados mostram que o comércio internacional é um importante fator para melhor entender crescimento, em termos do conceito de redução de incertezas futura, com destaque para as exportações quando são considerados países em desenvolvimento. Entretanto, o sentido de causalidade reversa é predominante na amostra, em especial para países mais ricos. Por fim, o último ensaio segue o argumento de Hausmman et al (2007) e avalia se o grau de especialização das exportações e importações cria uma possível não linearidade entre abertura comercial e renda per capita. Em outras palavras: a composição da pauta de exportação e importação pode alterar a capacidade que a abertura comercial tem em explicar o diferencial de renda entre nações? Para verificar esta hipótese, aplica-se o modelo de painel com transição suave para 110 países, seguindo o mesmo procedimento Frankel e Romer (1999), evitando assim o problema de endogeneidade. Os resultados empíricos indicam que quando as exportações são especializadas em commodities e as importações são diversificadas, a abertura não é capaz de influenciar a renda. Por outro lado, se as exportações são mais diversificadas, independentemente do grau de especialização que as importações venham apresentar, a abertura torna-se relevante em explicar o diferencial de renda entre as nações. / The present dissertation is composed of three essays that study the relations between economic growth and international trade through nonlinear empirical models. In the first essay, the author uses Multiple Regimes Smooth Transition Vector Error-Correction Models (MR-STVEC) for a sample of developed countries (United States, Canada, Japan and Germany) in order to evaluate how exports may affect productivity. The results indicate that exports may reverse a drop of productivity. Furthermore, in particular for Canada and Germany, exports are able to restrict productivity when there is an ascent movement. The second essay examines the causality between foreign trade variables (exports and imports) and output growth, as measured by industrial production. Here, the sample is composed of twenty nations with different income levels. An alternative time series empirical approach called transfer entropy (ET) is applied; it does not impose any aprioristic parametric function. The results show that trade is an important factor for the understanding of output growth, particularly exports when we focus on some developing countries. However, the reverse causality is also observed and, in general, is preeminent. Finally, the last essay follows the arguments of Hausmman et al (2007) in order to verify if sectorial specialization of exports and imports creates nonlinearities between the degree of openness of an economy and its per capita income. In other words: the compositions of exports and imports can change the capacity that the economic degree of openness has to explain the income differentials among countries? In order to address this issue, the third essay applies a Panel Smooth Transition Model for 110 countries, following the same procedure of Frankel e Romer (1999) to avoid endogeneity problem. Results indicate that when exports are specialized in commodities and imports are diversified, openness do not influence income. Otherwise, if exports are diversified, independently of the levels of import\'s specialization, openness turns out to be relevant to explain per capita income.

O presente trabalho analisa algumas obras de Prebisch, escritas entre o final da década de 40 e início da década de 60, do ponto de vista do comércio internacional e do desenvolvimento econômico da América Latina. Procura-se identificar em suas obras um componente crítico sobre essas questões, tendo em vista a conjuntura internacional no início do século XX, que deixa evidente a situação periférica latino-americana na divisão internacional do trabalho. Essa se expressa e ao mesmo tempo tem suas raízes em uma estrutura interna desigual e subdesenvolvida. Além disso, essa posição crítica do autor é vista como resultado de uma busca pela explicação para os problemas latino-americanos, cujas respostas não podiam ser encontradas no arcabouço teórico da corrente de pesquisa tradicional sobre comércio internacional. Ao tratar os países como tendo estruturas homogêneas, a teoria neoclássica faz simplificações que, na visão de Prebisch, deixa de lado uma questão essencial: as assimetrias no plano internacional. Para o autor a incorporação dessa questão na análise é importante devido ao impacto exercido sobre o desenvolvimento latino-americano, e pela forma como condiciona as perspectivas futuras da América Latina. E, mostra-se como essa forma de pensar e estruturar suas idéias levou a defesa de políticas a serem adotadas pela América Latina, que diferem das defendidas pela teoria neoclássica. Mas, analisam-se as obras de Prebisch, levando em consideração o próprio desenvolvimento intelectual do autor, através do qual há uma ampliação de sua análise e a formação de idéias integradas sobre a situação periférica. Neste trabalho é mostrado como o pensamento de Prebisch implica na incorporação de variáveis sociais e políticas para construir uma abordagem econômica que priorize a conciliação teórica com as circunstâncias históricas e com a realidade latino-americana. Conclui-se, através da análise dessas questões, que a observação sobre a especificidade latino-americana, e a ausência desta inclusão na teoria tradicional, levou Prebisch a formar uma nova abordagem para as questões sobre comércio internacional e desenvolvimento econômico, no qual o objetivo deveria ser sempre a busca por uma maior homogeneidade internacional. / The following work analyses some of Prebisch?s work, written between the end of the 40s and beginning of the 60s, from the point of view of international trade and development economics in Latin America. Its intention is to identify a critical component in regard to these issues, in light of the international conjuncture in the beginning of the XX century, which reveals the peripherical situation of Latin America in the international division of labor. This is expressed and at the same time has its roots in an unequal and underdeveloped internal structure. In addition to that, this critical position of the author is seen as a result of his search for an explanation for Latin America problems, for which the answers couldn?t be found in the theoretical framework of the traditional research school of international trade. By treating countries as having homogeneous structures, the neoclassical theory, has done simplifications that, in Prebisch?s view, do not take in consideration an essential question: the asymmetries in the international sphere. For the author the incorporation of this matter is important due to its impact over Latin Americas development, and also because of the way it affects Latin Americas future perspectives. And, this work shows how this way of thinking and of structuring his ideas led him to defend policies to be adopted by Latin America, that differ from the ones defended by the neoclassical theory. But, it analyses Prebisch?s works, taking in consideration his own intellectual development, through which his analysis gets wider and he builds integrated ideas in relation to the peripherical situation. In this work it?s showed how Prebisch?s ideas implies that social and political variables should be incorporated in order to build an economic approach that gives a priority to the conciliation of theory with the historical circumstances and with Latin America reality. The work concludes through the analyses of these questions, that the observation of Latin America specificities, and the lack of inclusion of it in the neoclassical theory, led Prebisch to establish a new approach to the questions about international trade and economic development, in which the main goal should be the search for a bigger international homogeneity.