The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is an important source of funds for firms and provides opportunities for investors. However, the economic boom of 1990-1996, the Asian Economic Crisis and the recession of 1997-2002 have affected the performance of firms listed at SET. The dividend policies of listed firms have also been influenced by these fluctuations in the business cycle.This study investigates the phenomenon of disappearing dividends in the developing capital market of Thailand. It adopts a similar methodology to Fama and French (2001) by classifying listed firms in line with changes in their dividend polices over the period 1990 to 2002. More specifically, the study explores the characteristics of firms which pay dividends, non-payers, former payers and firms which have never paid dividends. These characteristics include profitability, investment opportunities and firm size. The analysis uses firm characteristics for predicting the dividend policies of listed firms. Changes in firm characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends are identified in this process.The analysis suggests that firms which pay dividends tend to be large and highly profitable, although they possess low investment opportunities. The study also suggests that the characteristics of firms which paid dividends changed slightly before the crisis of 1997 and changed markedly during the crisis. However, after the crisis (1998-2002) the characteristics of firms are similar to those observed before the crisis. This result is attributed to the fact that some firms have resumed paying dividends after briefly ceasing this payment during the crisis. More importantly, when firm characteristics are held constant, the propensity to pay dividends of listed firms declined slightly before the crisis and declined strongly after the crisis. Consequently, the majority of new firms and many mature firms do not pay dividends.The findings of this study are consistent with the results of Fama and French (2001), particularly with regard to the characteristics of firms and changes in the propensity to pay dividends. However, this study extends the knowledge on the phenomenon of disappearing dividends by focussing on a developing economy, Thailand. Finally, this study suggests that investors should consider the characteristics of firms, changes in these characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends when identifying opportunities for investment.

我以台灣資本市場在1991至2010年之上市公司作為樣本，研究資 本市場發展程度對於企業現金股利之資訊內涵的影響。我們首先觀察支 付公司數占整體上市公司數比重以及加權平均股利發放率，發現台灣資 本市場並不存在消失股利的現象。接著透過羅吉斯模型、Life Regression Tobit Model以及多變量迴歸分析，分別對台灣上市公司發放股利傾向、 股利發放率，以及現金股利宣告效果進行分析。我發現儘管我國不存在 股利消失現象，資本市場發展程度的確負向影響公司發放股利傾向、股 利支付率，以及宣告增發股利時的宣告效果，代表現金股利的資訊意涵 卻隨資本市場發展而弱化。另外機構投資人持股比率上升，顯著降低了 現金股利的宣告效果。唯本土機構投資人持股比例越高，公司發放股利 的傾向隨之增加，呼應了我國資本市場對於股利仍有一定的重視程度及 偏好。 / The main contribution of this article is that I use the variable of development of capital market as the main reason resulting in the decrease of the likelihood of companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, and it also weakens the announce effect of cash dividends. There are some results we can see in this investigation. First, through observing the trend of the percentage of cash-dividend –payer firms to all TWSE firms and the trend of market value weighted payout ratio, we can see there is no “disappearing dividends” phenomenon in Taiwan capital market from 1991 to 2010. Second, the development of capital market not only decreases the likelihood of companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, but also weakens the announce effect of cash dividends. Third, the more shares held by institutional investors, the weaker announce effect caused by cash dividends announcement. However, firms with higher percentage of shares held by local institutional investors are much likely to pay dividends. It somehow means that cash dividends are preferred and respected.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is an important source of funds for firms and provides opportunities for investors. However, the economic boom of 1990-1996, the Asian Economic Crisis and the recession of 1997-2002 have affected the performance of firms listed at SET. The dividend policies of listed firms have also been influenced by these fluctuations in the business cycle.This study investigates the phenomenon of disappearing dividends in the developing capital market of Thailand. It adopts a similar methodology to Fama and French (2001) by classifying listed firms in line with changes in their dividend polices over the period 1990 to 2002. More specifically, the study explores the characteristics of firms which pay dividends, non-payers, former payers and firms which have never paid dividends. These characteristics include profitability, investment opportunities and firm size. The analysis uses firm characteristics for predicting the dividend policies of listed firms. Changes in firm characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends are identified in this process.The analysis suggests that firms which pay dividends tend to be large and highly profitable, although they possess low investment opportunities. The study also suggests that the characteristics of firms which paid dividends changed slightly before the crisis of 1997 and changed markedly during the crisis. However, after the crisis (1998-2002) the characteristics of firms are similar to those observed before the crisis. This result is attributed to the fact that some firms have resumed paying dividends after briefly ceasing this payment during the crisis. More importantly, when firm characteristics are held constant, the propensity to pay dividends of listed firms declined slightly before the crisis and declined strongly after the crisis. Consequently, the majority of new firms and many mature firms do not pay dividends.The findings of this study are consistent with the results of Fama and French (2001), particularly with regard to the characteristics of firms and changes in the propensity to pay dividends. However, this study extends the knowledge on the phenomenon of disappearing dividends by focussing on a developing economy, Thailand. Finally, this study suggests that investors should consider the characteristics of firms, changes in these characteristics and the propensity to pay dividends when identifying opportunities for investment.